bettrends.co.uk

Friday 5th June

1.40 Epsom

I know that LOVELACE is very well thought of by connections but it wouldn’t be unfair to say that he hasn’t really delivered over the past couple of years. However, I was taken with his run behind Yamal in the Hambleton Stakes last month when he was only beaten 3 1/2L into fourth. Since then, I thought Yamal ran a cracker at Goodwood in the On The House Stakes so I would say the form has been franked. If Johnston’s horse is able to build on his latest effort, he is far from out of this. HATTA FORT was a winner over 7f in Dubai this winter before posting respectable efforts in the 6f Abernant and Duke of York Stakes. In my opinion he falls into the Paco Boy category in that he is a true 7f horse, but with few options over that sort of trip he is forced to race over 6f or a mile. I was really taken with CONFRONT when he won at Newmarket’s Guineas Meeting. It was a hot race and he was conceding plenty of weight to some useful animals but the result never looked in question under a convincing ride from Ryan Moore. This is a tougher ask as he steps back up in class but I feel this lightly raced son of Cape Cross could be open to plenty of improvement this season and looks to have the profile of an older horse that Stoute usually thrives on. At first glance GENRAL ELLIOTT’S form doesn’t look that inspiring but he ran some nice races in defeat at the backend of last season. Although he was only fourth in the Joel Stakes behind the laid out Eagle Mountain he was only beaten a 1L and followed that with a respectable effort in the Ben Marshall Stakes. He opened his account for the season when winning a decent listed affair at Ascot in April and if he is able to build on that he is no forlorn hope here especially with the aid of the first-time blinkers. MAC LOVE caused a few raised eyebrows when finishing fourth in the On The House Stakes confirming that he is far from an also ran but I just feel that he just comes up short at this sort of level. Richard Hughes is riding as well as anyone at the moment so VITNAU shouldn’t be completely ignored but I think he finds a mile a little stretching and is clearly a better horse with plenty of cut. WITHOUT A PRAYER on the other hand may just find this on the sharp side judged on his effort on the Winter Derby but he will be suited by the ground if it remains on the quick side. DEPOSER looks to have it all to prove in my eyes despite the fact that he posted a reasonable effort in the Dee Stakes last month. John Best has aimed high with this horse so he clearly shows plenty at home but I wouldn’t want to see him do it on the racecourse before I considered backing him.

SHORTLIST

CONFRONT

2.10 Epsom

I understand that one of the subscribers to this service is connected to PHILARIO and has asked that I am not too critical. Having connections with Middleham, I always have a good look at their runners and I think Karl Burke’s runner has done little wrong this term. He has some solid form in the book and warrants his place in the line up but I can’t help thinking he is a tad high in the handicap now and probably needs to stick to listed contests. A similar comment also applies to PLUM PUDDING and I can just see the pair being vulnerable conceding weight all round. ROYAL POWER looks to be the Dandy Nicholls second string after some modest efforts this year so would have to be opposed although I wouldn’t like to guess at the number of times a Nicholl’s no-hoper has bounced back to form to turn over a stronger fancied stable mate. He is 4lbs lower tomorrow, so you have been warned. BENCOOLEN, the choice of Adrian Nicholls, ran a nice race at Thirsk the time before last but then disappointed over 10f at York last time. I wouldn’t rule him out in this contest but you are always taking a chance on whether he decides it’s a going day or not. Any serious punter knows that Gary Moore’s handicappers always warrant particular attention and SOUTH CAPE is no different. He is weighted to run well tomorrow but I can’t help but think he would have a better chance over a furlong shorter. TARTAN GIGHA likes to hear his hoofs rattle, so it was no surprise to see him toil through the mud at Ripon last time. The trip certainly won’t be a problem so he can’t be ruled out if the ground dries out. CAPABLE GUEST doesn’t win very often and possibly needs further than this whilst INTABIH looks up against it at this level. MORE TIME TIM has been on an upward curve this winter winning four of his last five starts on the all-weather but this is far from a Southwell handicap and I can’t see where the improvement is going to come from.

SHORTLIST

TARTAN GIGHA

2.45 Epsom – Coronation Cup

This looks a cracking renewal and probably the most open for a good few years. YOUMZAIN is the top rated after a series of placed efforts at the highest level but I don’t like the fact that he always seems to find one or two too good, so I would always look to oppose him. I am also against EXPRESSO STAR as I don’t think he is quite at this level yet. Gosden’s other runner DUNCAN romped away with the City & Suburban here in April before another comfortable success in a listed affair at Ascot last time. This represents another massive step up in class so it will be interesting to see how he contends with it. ASK won well in the Yorkshire Cup last month but I think he comes up a little short at Group 1 level, so is not for me. That leaves four and the first I am going to reluctantly take on is LOOK HERE despite the fact that there has been plenty of money for her. Back at the scene of her proudest moment, there is no doubt that she is a top class filly but with all of her rivals having had the benefit of a previous run and the fact that the price now looks to have gone I will look elsewhere. Something is telling me that BUCCELLATI has a big race in him this term but in order to narrow the shortlist down, reluctantly he is the next to go as he is yet to prove himself at this level. EASTERN ANTHEM is an interesting runner as he has been gradually improved through the ranks rather than being pitched straight in at the highest level. He earned his first Group 1 victory with an impressive display in the Dubai Sheema Classic on his latest start at Nad Al Sheba so has at least proved himself. My only slight concern is over the fact that this is his first start back in this country and we don’t know for sure if he has re-acclimatised himself yet but if he has, he must have a serious chance if the ground remains good. I don’t think there is much between him and last year’s Irish Derby winner FROZEN FIRE and I can see the pair fighting out the finish. We can ignore the O’Brien runner’s latest start as it came in a farce of a race at Chester and Johnny Murtagh will be out to make amends. O’Brien has done well in this race in recent years so that has to be another feather in his cap. If push comes to shove I would favour the Godolphin horse but in reality I don’t think there is much in it.

SHORTLIST

EASTERN ANTHEM

3.25 Epsom

I don’t know too much about WILLIAM BLAKE but on the best of his form from last year he has to be given a squeak in this contest as trip and ground look set to suit. LAKE POET is the top-rated horse in the race and arrives here in fine fettle after finishing runner-up in the City & Suburban Stakes over course and distance, but I can’t help but think that he is susceptible off top weight. CHARM SCHOOL has run some nice races in defeat this term and could find improvement for the step up in trip but he clearly needs to be able to get his toe in. COBO BAY is very much a dark horse despite the fact that he has been well beaten on both starts this term. In my opinion he looks back to a winning mark now and I believe he will be winning sooner rather than later. However, he also needs some cut in the ground so it may not be tomorrow. MYSTERY STAR was a nice winner at Goodwood last month and followed that with a solid effort in the Zetland Gold Cup off a 6lbs higher mark. Trip and ground should suit and he looks to have every chance. RAMONA CHASE is a consistent animal and chased home some top-class animals last season. Hailing from an unfashionable yard, there is always a bit of value to be had so I might be tempted tomorrow. SEEKING THE BUCK was an impressive winner at Newmarket last month but will find this tougher off a 7lbs higher mark whilst SWEET LIGHTNING also looks a tad high in the weights. FOOLIN MYSELF has obviously had his problems so I would want to see a return to form before backing him but one horse I do like is DREAM DESERT. He is still quite unexposed but rarely fails to run his race and I think that he is more than capable of a bold showing in this line up. He has Epsom form in the bank, stamina in abundance and should be suited to tomorrow’s conditions.

SHORTLIST

DREAM DESERT
RAMONA CHASE (Each-way)

4.05 Epsom – The Oaks

When it comes to successful trainers in the Oaks, none can match Henry Cecil. Eight victories is a staggering return and therefore his record is a massive feather in the cap of MIDDAY. Sir Michael Stoute was one of his main rivals during the 80s and he has twice saddled the Oaks winner, but the last of those victories came back in 1987 and in more recent years he has been a bit off the mark. That is not such good news for followers of PHILLIPINA. Another home based trainer with a less than ideal return is Barry Hills who only has a solitary place to his name from his last nine runners, so HIGH HEELED has to be viewed with a degree of caution. Moving on to the Irish, Aidan O’Brien has had the most representatives in the last decade, but two successes and six placed efforts speak for themselves so PERFECT TRUTH warrants our attentions. Jim Bolger is no stranger to Oaks success and he doesn’t pitch his runners in here without a good reason so OH GOODNESS ME earns a tick in the right box.

Seven of the last ten Oaks winners had been successful last time out and two others had run well to finish runner-up confirming that it is the in-form fillies that should hold an advantage. On that basis, the last time out winners MIDDAY, PERFECT TRUTH and SARISKA make the most appeal although PHILLIPINA, THE MINIVER ROSE and WADAAT can’t be completely ruled out.

The Oaks has a habit of throwing up the odd shock result but hopefully we got that out of the way last year when the 33/1 Look Here scooted to victory. A 50% strike rate for the favourite is a healthy return and at the time of writing SARISKA fills that berth although RAINBOW VIEW and MIDDAY are hot on her heels and they could well flip-flop between now and the time of the off. I would suggest that we don’t look beyond the top five in the betting despite last year’s result, so PERFECT TRUTH and PHILLIPINA join that trio.

When it comes to the main trials for the Oaks, last season’s Fillies’ Mile is the first race to consider having supplied three recent winners. The winner, RAINBOW VIEW is the only representative in the line up this year and she will be on a recovery mission after flopping in the 1000 Guineas. Newmarket’s Classic hasn’t been the strongest of pointers to the Oaks winner in recent times so after earning a positive mention RAINBOW VIEW swiftly earns a negative after finishing 5th on the Rowley Mile. Also run during the Guineas Meeting is the Pretty Polly Stakes but it has been a poor race when it comes to supplying Oaks winners recently (Ouija Board aside) so this would have to be a big negative for THE MINIVER ROSE who finished a well beaten 4th. The Cheshire Oaks is another race that has had very little impact on the Oaks so there has to be an air of scepticism surrounding the winner PERFECT TRUTH and runner-up PHILLIPINA. Lingfield’s Trial threw up last year’s Oaks winner and whilst it isn’t the strongest trial to rely on, it doesn’t have a bad return and therefore this year’s winner MIDDAY warrants respect and to a much lesser degree TOTTIE who finished 3rd and WADAAT who was beaten a long way in 8th. Success in York’s Musidora Stakes has been a real nail in the coffin as the last eight winners all went on to be beaten at Epsom. That has to be a worry for supporters of this year’s winner SARISKA whilst it is even worse reading for the 4th filly home HIGH HEELED. Newbury’s Swettenham Stud trial has had very little impact on the Oaks so runners from that race must be opposed, namely THE MINIVER ROSE. The Height Of Fashion Stakes isn’t represented in this year’s race so the final race to consider is the Irish 1000 Guineas. OH GOODNESS ME is the only representative from the race this year and warrants attention after a very respectable 3rd placed effort.

SHORTLIST

MIDDAY

CONCLUSION

MIDDAY comes out ahead from a trends point of view thanks to the fact that she is trained by Henry Cecil, was a last time out winner in one of the better trials and is vying for favouritism in the betting. She was given a light introduction as a juvenile, in typical Cecil fashion, before making her seasonal reappearance in the Epsom Derby Trial. At the time I thought it strange that he opted to take on the colts so early in the season but have now formed the opinion that the run was all part of the Oaks master plan. Although she suffered defeat she now has the experience of the track under her belt and once beaten Tom Queally didn’t give her an overly tough time of it. With the knowledge that she handles Epsom, all things were go and she struck in very convincing fashion in Lingfield’s Trial. Following that success Cecil would have had her ticking over at home before the final fine tuning for tomorrow’s race. Although she is by Oasis Dream I don’t think she will have an issue with the trip and there are no worries concerning the ground. I suspect that she is still open to improvement this term and to my eyes she looks the one they all have to beat.

SARISKA is still favourite at the time of writing but whilst she is clearly a classy filly, I think she has a few questions to answer. The fact that she won the Musidora puts me off as the past winners of that race haven’t fared so well in the Oaks but I also have concerns over the ground, trip and the way she will act around Epsom. It’s hard to second guess exactly how the ground will ride tomorrow and how much water they have put down. The first few races should give us a good idea but I can see her struggling if it is too quick. She has never raced over a mile and a half and Epsom can be a cruel place for horses who are racing at the boundaries of their stamina. RAINBOW VIEW is a danger as she was clearly the best filly around last season. All of a sudden she flops in the 1000 Guineas and she is no good? I was against her at Newmarket as Fillies’ Mile winners have a poor record in that contest and in my opinion she was always going to need further than a mile this term. I was very keen on her for the Oaks but I can’t help but worry about what John Gosden said after the Guineas, claiming that the fast ground jarred her up. If is it quick tomorrow, she has to be opposed again but if I get a sneak preview that there is some juice in the ground I would seriously consider having a saver on her. Of the rest HIGH HEELED, THE MINIVER ROSE, TOTTIE and WADAAT will need to find a massive amount of improvement to figure but a case could be argued for OH GOODNESS ME, PERFECT TRUTH and PHILLIPINA. The O’Brien runner looked to be coming to the end of her tether at Chester and if anything Stoute’s runner looked to be the one to take out of the race but it has been 20 odd years since a maiden won the Oaks so both have questions to answer. OH GOODNESS ME could prove the dark horse of the race, having finished a respectable 3rd in the Irish 1000 Guineas. Jim Bolger doesn’t have runners in this race unless he thinks they are up to the job and although she is untried over this sort of trip I don’t think it will pose a problem on what I have seen of her so far. My only concern with her would be the ground. All of her better efforts have come with some cut so she wouldn’t want it too quick but if Epsom have watered sufficiently she may prove a reasonable bet for each-way punters at around 14 to 16/1.

4.50 Epsom

There are some nice horses on show in this listed contest with NASRI looking the pick at the weights. The soft ground combined with the fact that it was his first start since October proved his downfall in the Greenham but he bounced back on a faster surface in a listed contest at Newmarket last time with a much better effort. He wasn’t beaten all that far and if he is able to step up on that effort, this looks his for the taking. KHOR DUBAI isn’t that far behind him according to the handicapper and although he disappointed in his first start this season in Italy, he can’t be dismissed lightly based on the best of his form from last season. OCEAN’S MINSTREL ran a highly respectable race to finish 10L behind Sea The Stars in the 2000 Guineas and a repeat performance would give him every chance but he is conceding 4lbs, so there is a small question mark. CROISULTAN has the form to figure but the ground looks to be against him whilst MISHRIF ran too badly to be true at Sandown last time but could be worth another chance over this shorter trip. ERMINE AND VELVET looks outclassed as does ISABELLA GREY. The once raced MASTOORA could be anything but won well enough at Folkestone to suggest that she is an above average filly and she could prove well in off just 82. The betting will probably prove the best guide to her chances but if the money comes for her I would certainly sit up and take notice.

SHORTLIST

NASRI
MASTOORA

5.25 Epsom

This isn’t the easiest race to close with but I have been taken with the efforts of SHAMWARI LODGE. After winning a fast ground maiden at Haydock last term she opened her handicap account at the first time of asking this season. Connections think a lot of this daughter of Hawk Wing and it is easy to see why after she buckled down and ground out a deserved victory at Newmarket last month. She is 5lbs higher tomorrow but looks a filly on an upward curve. ALL ABOUT YOU is another potentially unexposed sort and I believe he is one to follow this term although he looks to need some ease in the ground, so tomorrow may not be his day. TIME MEDICEAN is in a similar mould and has to be one for the short list after two nice efforts recently. He wasn’t beaten far at all on his handicap debut at Leicester last month and he gave me the impression that he would appreciate this step up to 7f. SATWA LAIRD made a pleasing reappearance at York last month and he looks a colt with a bright future so I can see him getting involved in the finish whilst ROMAN GLORY and TARTAN GUNNA are two others not without chances.

SHORTLIST

SHAMWARI LODGE
SATWA LAIRD