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Saturday 6th June

1.25 Epsom
Having had a quick look through the card this looks as competitive a Derby day card as I can remember. The opening 17 runner Handicap looks devilishly tough to unravel but here goes. TARZAN could prove a horse on an upward curve at the moment as I was impressed with him when he won at Redcar last month albeit in a modest contest and he followed that up with another sound effort at Newcastle last week after a 4lbs rise up the weights. He is 5lbs higher tomorrow but I don’t think the handicapper has him just yet over this sort of trip and he should be able to reverse the form with Dubai Crest who beat him at Beverley in April. Mark likes using John Egan so I am not put off by the fact that Dettori is on his other runner. The unexposed HISTORY LESSON looks to be the Hannon number one string and it’s easy to see why after he led from pillar to post in a Folkestone maiden on his first start of the season. He had plenty in hand that day and the handicapper may not have his mark just yet, with him racing off a modest 84. RIVER CAPTAIN has already won at Epsom this season but looks a bit high in the weights now. SAM SHARP was an eye-catching winner at Newbury last month and with very few miles on the clock is still open to plenty of improvement. Despite having a miler’s pedigree, in my opinion he looks better the further he goes. MARCHING TIME started the season with a smart reputation after running in last season’s Racing Post Trophy but I wasn’t overly impressed with him at York last month. In his defence he was short of room and got a smack in the face from a rival’s whip, so whilst I won’t be writing him off just yet equally I won’t be backing him. LONDON BRIDGE won what I thought was a weak race for a Newmarket maiden last time. Worryingly, he did hang in the closing stages but that was his first encounter of fast ground so I will let him off this once. However, this is a different option and he will need to step up on his Newmarket run to figure. UNION ISLAND is yet to finish outside of the first three and I think he goes into this race with every chance. After winning a weak affair at Musselburgh in April, he wasn’t fancied to follow up at York last time. However, he ran a cracker on ground which was probably a touch faster than he wanted and off a 3lbs higher mark he is fancied if the rain comes as forecast. DREAM WALK is another lightly raced animal that impressed me last time. Under nothing more than a hands and heels ride from Seb Sanders he accounted for his rivals with a minimum of fuss and he looks to have a chance of following up off just 82. ELLIPTICAL was another impressive winner last time and he too looks open to further improvement racing off just 81. Realistically, I could have put up a shortlist of 7 or 8 names as so many of the runners are unexposed.

SHORTLIST

SAM SHARP
UNION ISLAND
DREAMWALK

1.55 Epsom
I don’t ever remember the Woodcote looking this tough but one that I like if the rain comes is WALKINGONTHEMOON. After an impressive debut success, he bombed out on fast ground at Ascot before bouncing back in a decent conditions race at Pontefract. Despite jinking at the start he cut out an early lead but once headed stuck to his task gamely, refusing to go down without a fight. He is definitely a better horse with some cut so on rain softened ground he looks to hold every chance. DESERT AUCTION is a danger after a brace of recent victories and with Richard Hughes riding so well at the moment, would be dangerous to oppose. CORPORAL MADDOX is well regarded by connections and rewarded the faith with a very impressive performance at Hamilton last month. He is a striking individual and being by Royal Applause should appreciate this step up to 6f. FRATELLINO has had more starts than any runner in the race but his limitations have been exposed and he will find this tough. JACK MY BOY has done nothing wrong so far and warrants his place in the line up, but being related to some decent stayers he may just find his rivals going too quick for him tomorrow. LITTLE PERISHER could prove the dark horse of the race as he has shown some nice form this season. After three sound efforts he improved to win at Ascot last time and Alan Jarvis has always had this race in mind for him. MON BRAV has plenty of speed in his pedigree being a half brother to Bahamian Lad, a winning sprinter. He did get the splits at Beverley when he needed them, but the way he quickened up was very impressive and gave the impression that this extra furlong would suit. Red Avalanche and Royal Desert are two others that cannot be written off lightly although it is the former that appeals more as he will appreciate the rain.

SHORTLIST

CORPORAL MADDOX
MON BRAV
WALKINGONTHEMOON

2.25 Epsom
Last season’s 1000 Guineas runner-up SPACIOUS should prove difficult to beat if back to her best on her first run this season. She ran consistently well last season at Group 1 level and a win here tomorrow would make her a leading fancy for the Windsor Forest later in the month. EVA’S REQUEST looks her principal rival after confirming her well being with a convincing listed success at Goodwood last month. She is a filly that can be a bit in and out but on a going day she is more than capable of making her presence felt. I have to admit that I haven’t seen ALNADANA race but her form suggests that she is a consistent filly over this sort of trip on rain softened ground. The Aga Khan’s colours are no stranger to the Winner’s Enclosure at Epsom and with a question mark over SPACIOUS’ fitness, she could prove the best filly tomorrow. INFAMOUS ANGEL won last year’s Lowther but the wheels came off after that so this is something of a recovery mission and a similar comment applies to Hannon’s other runner BAILEYS CACAO despite the fact that she was only narrowly beaten in a listed contest at Lingfield last month. AL SABAHEYA and BADIAT ALZAMAN look to have plenty to find at the weights and RED DUNE may just benefit from the run tomorrow.

SHORTLIST

ALNADANA

3.00 Epsom
The Dash hasn’t failed to impress with 20 runners set to go to post. Over the fastest 5f in the country it generally pays to be drawn on the stands side, so I will be focusing on those drawn high. HOGMANEIGH won this in 2007 and looks to have a chance from stall 13 but he I think he will be anchored by top weight. I was surprised to see that WI DUD hasn’t won since 2006 as I hadn’t realised he was that much of a monkey. He is drawn bang on the rail so should get the early lead which he needs but he cannot be relied upon to see it out. STRIKE UP THE BAND has been running well in defeat recently and with 5f his ideal trip and a reasonable draw he shouldn’t be overlooked lightly. CAPTAIN DUNNE wasn’t beaten far by BINIOU at Thirsk last time and should reverse the form with a swing in the weights and a better draw. However, he looks to be where the handicapper wants him at the moment. FOL HOLLOW is another Nicholls runner that warrants respect but he may need to drop a few pounds before he is winning in handicap company again. I fancied SIREN’S GIFT at York last Saturday but she failed to run her race and finished a modest 8th. Although she had won on firm ground in the past I think she is a better filly when she is able to get her toe in and I am prepared to give her another chance tomorrow especially with Frankie booked to ride. On a line through the form from the Bath race where she finished third to subsequent Temple Stakes winner Look Busy, CRIMSON FERN has to come into the equation from a stall 15 draw. She is another who will appreciate the rain but the lack of a big race jockey is a slight concern. CAKE has been a consistent filly over the past couple of seasons and got back to winning ways with a fine effort at Goodwood last month. She has ran well again since then off her revised rating and I wouldn’t be too quick to write her off. I think Luke Morris is a tidy little rider and SAFARI MISCHIEF could prove a lively outsider from stall 16. Of those drawn low I quite like MERLIN’S DANCER who looks to be returning to form but he has it to do from stall 7.

SHORTLIST

SIREN’S GIFT
CAKE
SAFARI MISCHIEF

3.45 Epsom – INVESTEC DERBY
One of the key trends in the Derby surrounds last time out form. Fourteen of the last sixteen winners had been successful on their most recent start and the two that failed this stat, Sir Percy and New Approach, had both been narrowly beaten into second spot in the 2000 Guineas. This year’s runner-up Delegator isn’t in tomorrow’s line up but GAN AMHRAS wasn’t far behind him in 3rd, so a case could be argued in his favour? Other than him the trends are suggesting that the winner will come from AGE OF AQUARIUS, BLACK BEAR ISLAND, FAME AND GLORY, GOLDEN SWORD or SEA THE STARS.

The first four on the list are all trained by Aidan O’Brien and although he has been responsible for a whopping 32 runners in the last decade he has a more than respectable record, having won the race twice and been responsible for three placed efforts, so that doesn’t really help us. The other horse on the short list, SEA THE STARS, hails from the shrewd John Oxx yard and he is another Irish trainer with a good record in the Derby, saddling one winner and one placed horse from only two runners to face the Starter. So we are still stuck with five.

The English trained runners are already up against it from a trends perspective and it gets even worse when you consider the trainers’ form. John Gosden (DEBUSSY) has seen his last four runners fail to have any impact on the race as has Mick Channon (MONTAFF) with his last three. Saeed Bin Suroor (KITE WOOD) may have had four reach the frame but they came from a total of 14 runners and it hardly inspires confidence.

Anyway, back to the shortlist. The betting should provide us with the next clue as each of the last ten Derby winners came from the first four in the market. Whilst it could still change between now and 3.45 pm tomorrow, the current markets suggest that we can narrow our list down to SEA THE STARS (3/1), FAME AND GLORY (4/1) and possibly BLACK BEAR ISLAND (8/1) with AGE OF AQUARIUS (22/1) and GOLDEN SWORD (40/1) biting the dust.

Horses need to stay every yard of the 1m4f10y in order to win the Derby and the sires Sadler’s Wells and Montjeu have had a strong influence on the race in recent times. Therefore, BLACK BEAR ISLAND (Sadler’s Wells) and FAME AND GLORY (Montjeu) both survive the cut but there has to be a degree of concern surrounding SEA THE STARS who is by Cape Cross, well known as a sire of milers. However, at this late stage I will cut him some slack for the moment. Incidentally, all of the runners to have already fallen by the wayside are pretty strong in this area being by a mixture of Galileo, Sadler’s Wells, Montjeu, Rainbow Quest and Diesis.

The final thing to think about is the recent spate of trials. The Dante is the first race to consider as three of its last five winners have gone on to win the Derby. BLACK BEAR ISLAND took the honours this year from KITE WOOD (5th) and CROWDED HOUSE (8th), so his is the first name to make it onto the final shortlist. Leopardstown’s Derby Trial is another strong race to consider as not only has it supplied three recent Derby winners but it has also seen three others finish in the money at Epsom. FAME AND GLORY was the impressive winner this term, so he joins his stable mate on the final shortlist. However, the same can’t be said of SEA THE STARS as the 2000 Guineas winner has historically struggled in the Derby. The mighty Nashwan was the last horse to complete the Classic double way back when I was a lot thinner than I am now but since then although many have tried, all suffered defeat in the heat of the battle at Epsom. That leaves us with two on the shortlist as the trends cannot narrow it down any further.

The other trials worthy of a mention are the Lingfield Trial which, whilst not quite as strong as the other two mentioned above, hasn’t been a bad pointer down the years. AGE OF AQUARIUS won a close fought finish this year (MONTAFF 2nd) and his only failing was the fact that he is a big price in the betting. The Dee Stakes is the other race to have a respectable record but it isn’t represented this year.

SHORTLIST

BLACK BEAR ISLAND
FAME AND GLORY

CONCLUSION

So the trends have worked their magic and left us with two on the shortlist and surprise, surprise both are trained by Aidan O’Brien but neither are being ridden by stable jockey Johnny Murtagh. I don’t know what to make of his decision to partner RIP VAN WINKLE as I don’t know the politics at Ballydoyle and I haven’t seen the horse working at home. However, it seems a strange decision to me. After being beaten (albeit not by far) in last season’s Dewhurst plenty of excuses were banded about suggesting he didn’t get a clear run and didn’t handle the dip at Newmarket. Fair enough, let’s give him another chance. I thought he ran a very similar race in the 2000 Guineas, held up out the back never nearer than he was at the finish. Once again the excuses came out about his ability at handling the dip and the fact that he suffered a stone bruise in the lead up to the race. If he didn’t handle Newmarket, how will he act on the undulations of Epsom? For me there are too many question marks hanging over his head which is why I am surprised at Murtagh’s decision.

Looking at the two on the shortlist, there is very little to split them. At the moment I am tending to side with FAME AND GLORY as I was really impressed with him in the Derrinstown. Unbeaten in four starts, he opened his account with little fuss at Navan in October and just three weeks later won what I thought was a competitive Criterium de Saint-Cloud. Aidan O’Brien’s runners have never been at their best early on in the season, so his hard fought victory in the Ballysax was all the more impressive but it was his success in the Derrinstown Stud Derby that convinced me that he was a serious Derby horse. He won’t be found wanting for stamina judged on that effort and the fact that he is by Montjeu out of a Shirley Heights mare also add weight to that argument. I also like the fact that Seamus Heffernan is back on board after riding him at Leopardstown as he is a hugely underestimated rider.

Ryan Moore must be delighted to pick up the ride on BLACK BEAR ISLAND who looked a real stayer in the Dante. After being held up early doors, he stayed on dourly to get the better of stable mate Freemantle in the closing stages and immediately after the race I thought he looked a possible St Leger horse for later in the season. Ryan Moore is a brilliant choice for this horse as I don’t think there is a better hold up jockey around at the moment and I can picture him coming with a real late run tomorrow.

SEA THE STARS didn’t make it onto the shortlist but is many peoples idea of the winner. I think the trend surrounding 2000 Guineas winners is a big negative to overcome and I also have my doubts over whether he will stay. Being a half brother to the Derby winner Galileo and Oaks runner-up All Too Beautiful, you wouldn’t have thought it would be a problem. However, those two horses were both by Sadler’s Wells who is a massive influence when it comes to stamina. SEA THE STARS on the other hand is by Cape Cross who is much better known as a sire of milers, so unless John Oxx’s runner has inherited all of his stamina from his Arc winning mother, he could well fail to get home tomorrow.

4.30 Epsom
It doesn’t get any easier does it? DRILL SERGEANT keeps threatening to win a race and I think he has every chance tomorrow off his current rating over a trip and on ground that should suit. However, he is conceding plenty of weight to some decent rivals so it will not be easy. RED KESTREL is totally unexposed but he hasn’t encountered a race like this yet so might just feel the pinch. GROUP CAPTAIN is a better horse than the bare form suggests especially when there is some juice in the ground. I thought he ran a very nice race behind Hatton Flight at Epsom. COIN OF THE REALM was 4th in that race and looks to be nicely in here off a 1lb higher mark. He will appreciate the rain so can’t be ruled out. MARTYR has won two on the spin now but he is 6lbs higher tomorrow and won’t be suited to the rain softened conditions. A similar comment applies to PRESS THE BUTTON who I would have fancied on fast ground. BANDAMA isn’t badly weighted at the moment and with decent course and distance form in the bag could go well tomorrow. CONQUISTO wasn’t beaten far at Pontefract last time and I think that a mile and a half is the right way to go with this horse. He appreciates some cut in the ground which he should get tomorrow and he looks a winner waiting to happen to me.

SHORTLIST

GROUP CAPTAIN
BANDAMA
CONQUISTO
COIN OF THE REALM

5.05 Epsom
Dandy Nicholls has seven of the 17 runners and to be honest I am struggling to work out which is his number one chance. ABRAHAM LINCOLN and STRIKING SPIRIT both disappointed at Newmarket last time so wouldn’t be my first choice and neither would Van Bossed who looks held at the weights. SOMETHING at least comes into the race on the back of a victory but he is better over 7f and has a 5lbs hike to contend with. NORTHERN DARE could prove a dark horse as he has run well off today’s mark in the past on rain softened ground although ultimately he could still do with dropping a few pounds. CAPE VALE is a consistent horse but the jockey booking doesn’t inspire confidence so the last time out winner LEGAL EAGLE could prove to be the number one? The trip and ground shouldn’t pose a problem and his 6lbs penalty wouldn’t be a worry based on the way he won at Hamilton on Thursday. AYE AYE DIGBY has to be considered a threat to him on what he has done so far this season. He had no answer to Main Aim at Newbury in May but that horse could prove a good deal better than a handicapper after he followed up at Haydock last week. PISSCEAN also has to be considered after defeating Cake at Goodwood last month. He is up 6lbs as a result to lifetime high of 92 so will need to build on that and I also think that he is better over a furlong shorter than this. INTERNATIONALDEBUT has won from 5 to 9f so God only knows what is his preferred trip. However, he showed plenty of speed when winning over 5f at York last month and has followed that up with two sound efforts off the same mark as today, so I wouldn’t be too quick to write him off.

SHORTLIST

INTERNATIONALDEBUT
AYE AYE DIGBY
LEGAL EAGLE