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QUEEN’S VASE – ROYAL ASCOT, June 19

The Queen’s Vase is a new addition to this year’s Summer Festivals Betting Guide but it is quite a strong race from a trends point of view. The strongest trend surrounds the number of previous starts. Each of the last ten winners had made six or less career starts, so that makes me extremely wary over the chances of CITIZENSHIP, HALJAFERIA and HOLBERG. A top three finish last time out has also proved important in past renewals. Eight of the last ten winners had finished in the money on the most recent start so CITIZENSHIP and HALJAFERIA must now be struck off the shortlist after failing the first two trends whilst LORD OF THE FLAME, POPMURPHY and TACTIC would appear to be up against it. For a three-year-old to win over two miles at this stage of the season they must have already proved their stamina over at least 1m4f just like eight of the last ten winners. I will cut MASTERY some slack as he did win the Italian Derby over 1m3f but as LORD OF THE FLAME and POPMURPHY also fail this trend they are cut from the shortlist whilst GIBB RIVER and STATELY HOME also look to have stamina to prove. The Queen’s Vase has proved a good race for the market leaders with eight of the last ten winners coming from the first three in the betting. At the moment there aren’t any official markets formed although a quick look on the exchanges suggests that DHUSHAN, MASTERY and STATELY HOME will be at the head of affairs. Horses officially rated 95 to 110 have won seven of the last ten renewals so it would seen sensible to concentrate on the runners that fall into this bracket this year. Of the horses remaining, MASTERY (107), DHUSHAN (97) and YANKEE DOODLE (96) all qualify whilst if you are prepared to forgive HOLBERG for missing out on the first trend he also qualifies off 99. To help try and narrow it down further we can examine the form of the trainers in the race. Mark Johnston is the clear leader having won the race four times in the last decade so HOLBERG and SABOTAGE must be respected regardless off what the other trends suggest. Godolphin have won the race twice in the last decade from just seven runners so MASTERY must appeal whilst Aidan O’Brien saddled a winner and a runner-up from just eight runners so STATELY HOME and YANKEE DOODLE can’t be discounted lightly.

SHORTLIST

DHUSHAN
MASTERY
(TALIMOS)

CONCLUSION

The lightly raced DHUSHAN makes it to the head of the list having made less than six starts, won last time out, already proven over 12f, in the forefront of the betting and officially rated in the ideal band. He was un-raced as a juvenile, just like five recent winners, but made a pleasing debut at Newbury in April on ground that was probably as soft as he wants it. After hitting the front 3f out, his lack of fitness told and he tired in the closing stages, eventually finishing 4th with TACTIC and CLOWANCE HOUSE 2nd and 3rd. he stepped up on that effort next time winning at Chepstow pretty much as he liked, with GIBB RIVER well beaten in second. It was an impressive front running performance on ground that appeared to suit him better and the handicapper duly responded with a rating of 97. It remains to be seen how he will handle the step up to two miles but on the evidence seen so far I don’t think it will pose a problem as he settles well and being by Rainbow Quest out of an Ela-Mana-Mou mare he looks well bred for the job. The only downside I can see is his possible lack of experience.

I have thought long and hard about whether to include MASTERY on the shortlist as although he matches all of the major trends, I am always wary of horses carrying a penalty in Pattern races. However, he is a Classic winner having won the Italian Derby last time out and whilst it isn’t in the same league as the other European Derbys, it still represents a Group 2 success and Group form is Group form whatever the opposition. I saw this horse race last year when with Mark Johnston and was quite taken with his efforts and he showed his still retains a good attitude when winning in Italy. When Dettori pulled him out for an effort he picked up strongly, forging his way to the front inside the final furlong and then staying on well. There was no hint that he was stopping as he crossed the line and I can’t see stamina being an issue. My only concern is that he is conceding 5lbs to some totally unexposed rivals and that extra weight could take its toll over this stamina sapping trip.

The final horse to make it on to the shortlist is TALIMOS who annihilated his six rivals at Brighton last week. Un-raced at two, he made a pleasing but immature debut at Salisbury last month, chasing home tomorrow’s rival CLOWANCE HOUSE. That immaturity was evident at Lingfield on his next start when he never really got into the race, only staying on once the race was lost. However, the penny finally dropped at Brighton last time. After being niggled along early on, he picked up in the fashion of a decent animal and stayed on strongly to the line for a 12L success. I got the impression that the further he went, the better he was and I think he is open to bundles of improvement over this extra half a mile with that experience under his belt. He is currently 24/1 on the exchanges, so I think he is worth a punt each-way even though this is much tougher.