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Friday 19th June

2.30 Ascot – Albany Stakes

Despite 22 runners going to post, this looks easy. The American Wesley Ward’s juveniles have already thrashed the best we have to offer over the first two days, so AEGEAN should win this pulling a cart. Of course I am only joking as this is anything but easy, although you can’t deny that his two winners so far have been very impressive. I won’t go into detail but American trained horses are brought along in a different way to the Europeans and that approach has definitely given them upper hand so far. Jealous Again dominated what I though looked a very competitive Queen Mary but she could only finish second to AEGEAN in a Group 3 at Churchill Downs in April. That makes the form look very strong and I can see her running well although a stall 18 draw isn’t ideal. So where will the challenge come from? ABOVE LIMITS won well at Sandown last time but didn’t look to appreciate the firm ground so that would put me off her whilst I have question marks about ABSOLUTE MUSIC after a strange effort at Leicester last time. BAILEYS VISION hasn’t shown the form to suggest she is up to this and whilst I was impressed with BELL’S OCEAN at Newmarket last time, I don’t think it was enough to suggest she will trouble the principals tomorrow. CHACHANAIDEE won well at Lingfield on her debut despite not getting everything her own way. After a slow start she looked very green, proving difficult to settle, but once Tom Queally asked her for an effort she picked up well to win with some authority. She will have to step up on that but she looks a filly with plenty of talent. CHICITA BANANA is exposed and CORE ELEMENT doesn’t look good enough after a modest debut. CURTAINS is going the right way but needs to make a big step up to figure here whilst ETERNAL INSTINCT shouldn’t be good enough. FLYINFLYOUT only has ordinary form in the book whilst FRENCH CONNEXION looks out of her depth. HABAAYIB was backed as if defeat was out of the question at Nottingham last time and won as you would expect a 1/4 change to. However, it wasn’t the strongest of races and I don’t think it was a really impressive performance. JIRA won a decent contest at Leicester last time and I wouldn’t rule her out of finishing in the frame. KATE SKATE won a seller last time so enough said but one I do like is KURTANELLA who looked to know her job well at Newbury in May. She was staying on well over the 5f so I think this step up in trip will suit her well. I don’t like LELEYF even though she finished 3rd in the Hilary Needler last time but I do respect the chances of LILLIE LANGTRY. A Group 3 winner on her latest start, she is clearly a filly with a bright future so with trip and ground set to suit, she looks to have every chance from a decent draw in stall 6. PATTERSEA GIRL looks held on her Hilary Needler form whilst SHE’S A CHARACTER looks open to plenty of improvement after her debut win at Doncaster. I wouldn’t put anyone off SWEET SONNET after her narrow victory at York last month but I am still concerned by the way Godolphin’s horses are running.

SHORTLIST

AEGEAN
LILLIE LANGTRY
CHACHAMAIDEE
KURTANELLA

3.05 Ascot – King Edward VII Stakes

After watching BLACK BEAR ISLAND win the Dante I immediately thought ‘Leger horse’. He looks to be an out and out stayer and that is why I was shocked with his below par effort in the Derby. That performance was too bad to be true but he wouldn’t be the first horse not to act around Epsom, so I think he is worth another chance tomorrow despite the fact that he is conceding 3lbs. AQWAAL is going in the right direction and could improve with the step up in trip but I still have him someway short of the principals. BEAUCHAMP XERXES needs to improve on what he has shown so far and to be honest I am not sure where the handicapper got a mark of 101 from. DEBUSSY can’t be ruled out after winning the Epsom Trial before finishing 3rd in the Chester Vase and 8th in the Derby and I think punters will get a run for their money. FATHER TIME looks in need of a trip after a strong effort in the Lingfield Derby Trial. Therefore, I was surprised to see him stepped down in trip at Newmarket last time and I was proved right as he was doing all of his better work late on. Tomorrow’s step up looks ideal but he will have to improve at this level. I thought FREE AGENT had his limits exposed in the Cocked Hat Stakes so I can’t see him figuring whilst HAIL CAESAR looks here to act as pacemaker. I think MONTAFF could be the dark horse of the race as Mick Channon was very complimentary about him before his run in the Derby and was clearly upset when he finished a well beaten last. He is certainly better than that based on his run in the Lingfield Derby Trial and I can see him reaching the frame at a decent price. NATIVE RULER wasn’t beaten far in the Dante despite only finishing 7th and looks open to improvement for this step up in trip. NEHAM looks held on his Dante run but I think SOUTH EASTER can prove a serious challenger. After winning the Dee Stakes he was quietly fancied for the Derby before a setback made him miss the race. Assuming he has suffered no ill effects, this race could prove to be his Derby. YOUR OLD PAL looks listed class at best.

SHORTLIST

BLACK BEAR ISLAND
SOUTH EASTER
MONTAFF – EW

3.45 Ascot – Coronation Stakes

What a race we have in store with the English, Irish and French 1000 Guineas winners in the line up. Personally, I wasn’t that impressed with the form from Newmarket as for me too many fillies failed to run their race. Taking nothing away from GHANAATI who improved to win impressively, I will be interested to see if she is able to put up a repeat performance. AGAIN on the other hand impressed when winning in Ireland, powering though the mud to get the better of the soft ground specialist LAHALEEB, who would not be for me on a fast surface and I would also take on the 5th horse home CHINTZ. Ryan Moore looks a positive booking for David Wachman’s runner and she looks to hold every chance. But it was the French winner ELUSIVE WAVE that impressed me the most. It was a hot little race but under a brilliant front running performance from Christophe Lemaire, she held all her rivals at bay. This year’s race really does have that championship look to it and personally I can’t wait. Of the rest, BALIYANA will have to improve to trouble the principals but you always write off a John Oxx horse at your peril. HEART SHAPED could prove a surprise package after finishing 4th at Newmarket but jockey bookings doesn’t give me the right impression. NASHMIAH is probably in at the deep end although Clive Brittain isn’t alien to a 50/1 Group winner whilst REGGANE is respected but would have to improve. Finally there is the forgotten horse RAINBOW VIEW. The champion two-year-old filly floundered at Newmarket before being beaten in the Oaks. I wouldn’t say she hasn’t trained on as there have been glimmers of her old self at times and if she is able to recapture her two-year-old form she could look a massive price tomorrow.

SHORTLIST

ELUSIVE WAVE
AGAIN

4.20 Ascot – Wolferton Handicap

HALICARNASSUS is a tough old nut and there isn’t much I can tell you about him expect that if he is your choice you will almost certainly get a run for your money. He hasn’t got a bad draw but is conceding plenty of weight. KHATEEB could be drawn better and I think he will find this tough off his revised rating following his success in a reasonable contest at Nottingham last time. PERFECT STRIDE promised so much but he has flattered to deceive this season but he has been helped by being drawn in stall 14. PINPOINT is at home in this grade and ignoring his woeful effort at Goodwood last time, I can feasibly see him finishing in the money. KANDIDATE is another solid campaigner but he is a better horse on the all weather whilst INDIAN DAYS looks too high in the weights to figure. PERKS made a steady climb up the ranks last season but I think he is probably as high in the weights as he needs to be whilst MORES WELLS won’t appreciate the quicker ground along with BARON De’L. MOONQUAKE impressed me when winning at York last month and a repeat effort will see him go close but this will be much tougher off an 8lbs higher mark. RE BAROLO won the Winter Derby Trial in February off 107 so looks to have a chance tomorrow off 102. His draw in stall 2 isn’t ideal but his jockey booking makes for interesting reading. On his last start he chased home the impressive KINGDOM OF FIFE in the Zetland Gold Cup at Redcar, only going down by just over 3L, so it will interesting to see who comes out on top when the pair lock horns again. Stoute’s horse was impressive at Redcar and although he is 9lbs higher now I still think he has improvement in him and I wouldn’t rule out a bold effort. You have to respect Tony Martin’s SALUTE HIM as he is a master at landing this type of race although I find it difficult to see where the improvement will come from off his revised mark. ALARAZI doesn’t interest me as he has not won since making his debut in 2007 and I am not convinced the fast ground will suit. STONE OF SCONE is the least exposed of these and looks a horse on an upward curve. He is up another 3lbs after a decent third at York behind MOONQUAKE so you couldn’t rule out a big run but I think he needs it slightly softer than this although stall 12 will help him. DREAM LODGE won well at Redcar last Tuesday and gets in here with just a 3lbs penalty. He is tackling 10f for the first time tomorrow so if that brings about further improvement he could be the dark horse of the race off bottom weight.

SHORTLIST

KINGDOM OF FIFE
MOONQUAKE
RE BAROLO

4.55 Ascot – Queen’s Vase

The Queen’s Vase is a new addition to this year’s Summer Festivals Betting Guide but it is quite a strong race from a trends point of view. The strongest trend surrounds the number of previous starts. Each of the last ten winners had made six or less career starts, so that makes me extremely wary over the chances of CITIZENSHIP, HALJAFERIA and HOLBERG. A top three finish last time out has also proved important in past renewals. Eight of the last ten winners had finished in the money on the most recent start so CITIZENSHIP and HALJAFERIA must now be struck off the shortlist after failing the first two trends whilst LORD OF THE FLAME, POPMURPHY and TACTIC would appear to be up against it. For a three-year-old to win over two miles at this stage of the season they must have already proved their stamina over at least 1m4f just like eight of the last ten winners. I will cut MASTERY some slack as he did win the Italian Derby over 1m3f but as LORD OF THE FLAME and POPMURPHY also fail this trend they are cut from the shortlist whilst GIBB RIVER and STATELY HOME also look to have stamina to prove. The Queen’s Vase has proved a good race for the market leaders with eight of the last ten winners coming from the first three in the betting. At the moment there aren’t any official markets formed although a quick look on the exchanges suggests that DHUSHAN, MASTERY and STATELY HOME will be at the head of affairs. Horses officially rated 95 to 110 have won seven of the last ten renewals so it would seen sensible to concentrate on the runners that fall into this bracket this year. Of the horses remaining, MASTERY (107), DHUSHAN (97) and YANKEE DOODLE (96) all qualify whilst if you are prepared to forgive HOLBERG for missing out on the first trend he also qualifies off 99. To help try and narrow it down further we can examine the form of the trainers in the race. Mark Johnston is the clear leader having won the race four times in the last decade so HOLBERG and SABOTAGE must be respected regardless off what the other trends suggest. Godolphin have won the race twice in the last decade from just seven runners so MASTERY must appeal whilst Aidan O’Brien saddled a winner and a runner-up from just eight runners so STATELY HOME and YANKEE DOODLE can’t be discounted lightly.

SHORTLIST

DHUSHAN
MASTERY
(TALIMOS)

CONCLUSION

The lightly raced DHUSHAN makes it to the head of the list having made less than six starts, won last time out, already proven over 12f, in the forefront of the betting and officially rated in the ideal band. He was un-raced as a juvenile, just like five recent winners, but made a pleasing debut at Newbury in April on ground that was probably as soft as he wants it. After hitting the front 3f out, his lack of fitness told and he tired in the closing stages, eventually finishing 4th with TACTIC and CLOWANCE HOUSE 2nd and 3rd. he stepped up on that effort next time winning at Chepstow pretty much as he liked, with GIBB RIVER well beaten in second. It was an impressive front running performance on ground that appeared to suit him better and the handicapper duly responded with a rating of 97. It remains to be seen how he will handle the step up to two miles but on the evidence seen so far I don’t think it will pose a problem as he settles well and being by Rainbow Quest out of an Ela-Mana-Mou mare he looks well bred for the job. The only downside I can see is his possible lack of experience.

I have thought long and hard about whether to include MASTERY on the shortlist as although he matches all of the major trends, I am always wary of horses carrying a penalty in Pattern races. However, he is a Classic winner having won the Italian Derby last time out and whilst it isn’t in the same league as the other European Derbys, it still represents a Group 2 success and Group form is Group form whatever the opposition. I saw this horse race last year when with Mark Johnston and was quite taken with his efforts and he showed his still retains a good attitude when winning in Italy. When Dettori pulled him out for an effort he picked up strongly, forging his way to the front inside the final furlong and then staying on well. There was no hint that he was stopping as he crossed the line and I can’t see stamina being an issue. My only concern is that he is conceding 5lbs to some totally unexposed rivals and that extra weight could take its toll over this stamina sapping trip.

The final horse to make it on to the shortlist is TALIMOS who annihilated his six rivals at Brighton last week. Un-raced at two, he made a pleasing but immature debut at Salisbury last month, chasing home tomorrow’s rival CLOWANCE HOUSE. That immaturity was evident at Lingfield on his next start when he never really got into the race, only staying on once the race was lost. However, the penny finally dropped at Brighton last time. After being niggled along early on, he picked up in the fashion of a decent animal and stayed on strongly to the line for a 12L success. I got the impression that the further he went, the better he was and I think he is open to bundles of improvement over this extra half a mile with that experience under his belt. He is currently 24/1 on the exchanges, so I think he is worth a punt each-way even though this is much tougher.

5.30 Ascot – Buckingham Palace Stakes

Wow, this looks really tough. RACER FOREVER was disappointing at Leicester on his reappearance and looks vulnerable off top weight. MUTHEEB is unexposed but I can’t see where the handicapper got 102 from. REDFORD is definitely one for the shortlist after a pleasing reappearance at Haydock. That will have blown away the cobwebs and a 3lbs drop in the weights will help his cause. I wouldn’t put anyone off DHULAR DHAR but he isn’t the easiest horse to win with nowadays and stall 20 isn’t ideal. MISTER HARDY arrives on the back of a hat-trick and normally I would oppose a horse like that for all I was worth. But this fellow has really impressed me this season and even though he is on a career high mark I can see him running a big race if he can overcome being drawn in stall 19. SIX OF HEARTS looks an interesting runner for Cecil Ross but I fear he is drawn on the wrong side whilst SHIFTING STAR looks a better horse over a furlong shorter. AL MUHEER doesn’t look the same horse on turf as he does on the all weather whilst I would give SOMETHING a chance if he wasn’t drawn on the far rail. CLIFTON DANCER looks a 7f specialist but he is perhaps a shade high in the weights whilst I think TARTAN GIGHA probably peaked at Epsom. DRAWNFROMTHEPAST looked a nice horse in 2007 but obviously suffered a set back last year. He has posted a couple of reasonable efforts this term so remains a horse of potential but his wide draw puts me off. MUSAALEM hasn’t done a lot wrong in his short career and is respected whilst CELTIC SULTAN would make much more appeal from a better draw. SILVER GUEST has some really good form in the book but was really disappointing on his reappearance at Goodwood after over a year off. I am willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and have a little bit each-way in the hope that the run will have brought about the required improvement. GIGANTICUS is more than capable of making his presence felt off his current mark and has been given a chance from stall 4. HARRISON GEORGE looked a progressive handicapper last year and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him make a bold bid whilst the recent Victoria Cup winner SWIFT GIFT is another with chances although a 6lbs hike up the weights and a stall 26 draw will make life tough. HANOVARIAN BARON doesn’t look up to this yet but he wouldn’t be the first Nicholl’s runner to spring a surprise whilst HORATIO CARTER looks a bit out of his depth at this level. I am note sure the drop in trip will suit WEBBOW but he is drawn well and I don’t think the handicapper has his measure yet. I couldn’t have HURRICANE SPIRIT on his first start for nearly a year but GOLDEN DESERT could prove a dark horse from stall 12. SOUTH CAPE is another 7f specialist and comes into the race on a handy mark. Gary Moore is a really shrewd cookie when it comes to the major handicaps and from stall 3 I expect his runner to mount a serious challenge. Wigram’s Turn is respected for Andrew Balding but he may need to drop a few pounds before he gets his head in front. Gaye Kelleway enjoys a tilt at these big races and HUSTLE could be worth a small bet each way in first time blinkers from stall 1. MR MACATTACK looks held at the weights but goodness only knows what to make of SEASIDER. I don’t know too much about the horse but he has to be respected because of connections alone. SLUGGER O’TOOLE has dropped back to a winning mark but has some modest efforts to overcome.

SHORTLIST

SOUTH CAPE
REDFORD
GIGANCTICUS
HARRISON GEORGE
SILVER GUEST