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WOKINGHAM STAKES – ROYAL ASCOT, June 20th

We have had a few near misses over the last couple of days, so let’s hope that the trends can come through for us in the Wokingham. The first trend to consider is that off age. Four and five-years-old have practically had a strangle hold over the race in the last decade, with only the 2006 winner Baltic King denting their very impressive run of form. As a result I am extremely wary about the older runners this year and would have to say that ASSET, ZIDANE, BEAVER PATROL,, KNOT IN WOOD, TAMAGIN, NOTA BENE, CARCINETTO, ADVANCED, MARKAB, ORPSIE BOY, PEARLY WEY, JOSEPH HENRY, OSIRIS WAY, SOMETHING and RIVER FALCON look to have it all to prove.

Official ratings are the next area to consider as the trends are suggesting that there is a swing in favour of those rated 100 plus, just like four of the last six winners. ROCK OF ROCHELLE heads the weights this year on 108 and I would include everything down to PROHIBIT. Whilst this appears to be the strongest trend, as a bare minimum I would suggest looking no further than those rated 96 and so EXCLAMATION, EVENS AND ODDS, MAJOR EAZY, GENKI and HIGH STANDING shouldn’t be completely overlooked on this trend alone.

Given the competitive nature of the Wokingham it is quite remarkable that ten of the last eleven winners achieved a top four finish on their most recent start. Those remaining that match with this strong trend are SOHRAAB, JIMMY STYLES and HIGH STANDING, so all of a sudden the 31 runners are down to three. All three qualify having raced within the last 30 days, just like eight of the last eleven winners. Ten of the last eleven winners had been drawn no more than seven stalls from either rail so JIMMY STYLES and HIGH STANDING remain strong choices based on their draw in stalls 1 and 28 respectively, but SOHRAAB doesn’t make as much appeal from stall 17. In redemption, Hughie Morrison has a more than respectable record in the Wokingham, so should we write SOHRAAB off? The top four on the betting have won seven of the last eleven renewals so JIMMY STYLES and HIGH STANDING earn their place on the short list, as at the time of writing both look to be vying for favouritism.

SHORTLIST

JIMMY STYLES
HIGH STANDING
(SOHRAAB)
(NOTA BENE)

CONCLUSION

With the trends suggesting that we look for a four or five-year-old that achieved a top four finish last time and is officially rated at least 96 only three officially make it onto the shortlist. When I redesigned the Summer Festivals Betting Guide to include some of the more competitive handicaps, I had hoped that it would help to throw up some big priced animals and so far this week we haven’t fared too badly in the Royal Hunt Cup and Britannia. However, the shortlist for the Wokingham includes the two market leaders, but if that is what the trends suggest we will have to go with it. Clive Cox’s horses remain in good heart at the moment so it is encouraging that JIMMY STYLES performs very well from a trends point of view. Un-raced as a juvenile, he looked a progressive handicapper in 2007 and won over course and distance on his reappearance on 2008. Seven days later he ran another sound race when upped in class but obviously suffered a set back as he wasn’t seen out for the rest of the season. He showed no ill effects when making his return over course and distance in May, only going down by 1L to Striking Spirit. That run obviously blew away the cobwebs as he was very impressive next time, winning a Class 2 Handicap at Newmarket. That victory puts him on a career high mark tomorrow but with few miles on the clock, he still looks relatively unexposed and from stall 1 I can see him running a big race.

HIGH STANDING goes toe to toe with him from a trends point of view and comes into the race at the top of his game. After three poor maiden efforts he started off his career rated a very modest 38 but that proved a spring board for him as after a better effort in a maiden at Yarmouth, he won his next three starts when stepping into handicap company and was runner up in his next two. He got off the mark for 2009 at the first time of asking at Doncaster in May and despite a 6lbs rise up the weights he followed up easily in a competitive Class 2 handicap at Goodwood at the end of the month. The handicapper put him up 7lbs as a result but tomorrow he gets in under a 5lbs penalty, so theoretically he is a couple of pounds better off. Those of you who saw him win at Goodwood will obviously know how easily he did it, drawing clear in the closing stages to win being eased. I don’t think 5lbs will be enough to stop him being competitive here but there are a couple of points to be cautious about. He is a confirmed hold-up horse so he will need to get the splits when the front runners start to come back to him and his stall 28 draw is a slight worry as so far this week the winners over the sprints have tended to come from a low to mid draw.

SOHRAAB is next best, meeting all of the major trends. However, they are suggesting that his stall 17 draw isn’t ideal but I am not so sure based on what we have seen so far this week. He is much more experienced than the first two on the list and confirmed that he has retained that zest for racing when chasing home Chief Editor at Newbury in April. He stepped up on that to win over 5f at Chester in May before running a respectable race behind J J The Jet Plane at Windsor earlier this month. Most of his wins have come over 5f but he has run well over course and distance in the past and Hughie Morrison obviously feels that he is up to the job.

I really struggled to put up a fourth selection as nothing meets all of the key trends. SOAP WARS would appear to be rated too low and has a 70 day absence to overcome but he is drawn close to a rail and is the right age and a last time out winner. ROKER PARK is another that appears to be rated too low and Kevin Ryan has a poor record in this race, but he looks to have a good draw in stall 5. Therefore, I have used for a bit of poetic licence and gone for the seven-year-old NOTA BENE. Other than his age, he sits well with the trends and should have a decent passage from stall 13. Richard Hughes looks a positive booking, as he rode him on both starts in Dubai, so he obviously knows the horse well. I think he remains on a positive mark at the moment and he looks to hold every chance if building on a decent effort at Lingfield last month.