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Saturday 20th June

2.30 Ascot – Chesham Stakes

The Chesham is a race that my old boss enjoys winning so we will have a look at his horses first. SHAKESPEAREAN was very impressive when winning at Haydock last month, despite showing signs of greenness. He was outpaced early on but once Royston got him settled he picked up nicely, showing a good turn of foot and soon had the outcome settled. The way he kept on strongly to the line suggests to me that he will have no problem with the extra furlong tomorrow, so I can see him mounting a serious bid. STEP IN TIME made a promising debut at Haydock and built on that when winning at Newmarket last month. However, he wasn’t as eye catching as his stable mate and he wouldn’t be my pick tomorrow. BIKINI BABE completes the Kingsley House trio and is one of only two fillies in the race. Considering their overall lack of numbers, fillies don’t have too bad a record in the race so I would not be put off on that front. She was disappointing on her debut at Newcastle at the end of last month when she apparently lost a shoe, but she showed significant improvement when winning over 7f at Sandown last Friday. It didn’t look too bad a contest on paper but she turned it into a procession, making all for a 3L success. She holds Group 1 entries later in the season so is obviously well thought off and I won’t be surprised to see her mount a bold bid tomorrow. Despite a slight blip yesterday, the American HONOR IN PEACE warrants attention. He was an easy winner over 5f on his last start at Churchill Downs and as long as he handles the step up in trip, looks to have a major chance. Ballydoyle will be in good spirits after Yeats’ record breaking victory yesterday and they look to have a nice colt on their hands in the shape of EMPEROR CLAUDIUS. Out of the 1000 Guineas winner Virginia Waters by Giant’s Causeway he should have no problem with the step up in trip especially as he didn’t look to be stopping when winning over 6f at Fairyhouse earlier this month. Their second runner BEETHOVEN is still a maiden but he is a well bred individual who cost 260,000 euros at the sales. He is related to some stout individuals so he will appreciate the step up in trip as he looked a little one paced over 6f at Naas last time. I would suggest that IZAAJ is the final one to consider after he stayed on well to win over 6f at Yarmouth last time. He looked like a step up in trip would suit and being closely related to the high class Karen’s Caper he should turn out to be a decent animal in the long run.

SHORTLIST

EMPEROR CLAUDIUS
SHAKESPEAREAN
HONOR IN PEACE

3.05 Ascot – Hardwicke Stakes

I had been a fan of BRONZE CANNON since he won at Newmarket last season beating DOCTOR FREEMANTLE. He didn’t really progress as I expected for the second half of the year but bounced back with a couple of reasonable efforts on the all-weather this spring. Therefore, I wasn’t completely surprised when he won a three runner Jockey Club Stakes at the Guineas Meeting. That was a good effort from Casual Conquest but as a result he carries a penalty tomorrow and I think that may just be his undoing. CAMPANOLOGIST won the King Edward VII here last season, beating Conduit in the process, so has obvious claims if mounting a repeat performance. Since then he has been campaigned at 10f but I think he lacks the pace for that and I expect to see a strong effort over what I consider his ideal trip. I respect DANSANT as his run in the Group 1 Santa Anita Handicap in March confirmed he is up to the job but I think he is a horse much better suited to the all-weather. DOCTOR FREEMANTLE is a strange horse as after winning the Chester Vase I thought he was a shade disappointing in the Derby and Grand Prix De Paris before failing to stay in the St Leger. However, he bounced back on his first start this season getting the verdict in a tight finish in the Huxley Stakes at Chester. The 10f probably represented his bare minimum trip these days and I expect him to mount a serious challenge over this trip, especially as he appears to be at his best on a firm surface. ENROLLER finished ahead of him in the Leger but does look a better horse when able to get his toe in and I am not convinced the trip will suit either. ILLUSTRIOUS BLUE doesn’t quite look up to this grade and whilst STEELE TANGO is on an upward curve I can’t see him landing this. TAJAWEED doesn’t have many miles on the clock but I think the Derby took its toll on him last season. He was well beaten behind Vision D’Etat in the Prix Ganay in April and would appear to have it all to prove tomorrow. The only filly in the race BARSHIBA isn’t totally ruled out but she would have to improve on her Dahlia Stakes effort to figure.

SHORTLIST

DOCTOR FREEMANTLE
CAMPANOLOGIST

3.45 Ascot – Golden Jubilee Stakes

With Takeover Target a non runner, 14 runners are set to go to post. If the press and official ratings are correct J J THE JET PLANE looks to be the one they all have to beat in this 6f Group 1. He has only been beaten once in seven starts and that came on his first start in Dubai this spring. He didn’t make the same mistake back on turf, beating Hatta Fort at Nad Al Sheba. He has only made the one start in this country but it was an impressive one when winning pretty much as he liked at Windsor at the start of the month. That will have put him spot on for tomorrow and I will be amazed if this 6f specialist doesn’t have a hand in the finish. However, he won’t be much of a price so will not be everyone’s cup of tea but there are plenty of others that should give you a run for your money. Luca Cumani’s Greek import IALYSOS is an interesting one. Unbeaten in 7 starts in Athens it was near impossible to know what to make of him ahead of his British debut at Haydock last month. As it was, he was sent off a 14/1 shot for the listed contest before running on strongly in the closing stages to get his head in front on the line. The runner up Anglezarke franked the form with a very impressive third here earlier in the week and with him still something of an unknown quality I think he could be reasonable value at around 10/1. Whilst on a foreign theme, I think the Australian SACRED KINGDON could get overlooked thanks the hype surrounding the South African runner. However, he is a proven Group 1 sprinter in his homeland and looks ideally suited to a quick 6f. He couldn’t be arriving here in better form after winning a Group 1 last month and I think he represents a serious threat. KINGSGATE NATIVE was a surprise winner of this race last year and makes his first start for Cheveley Park Stud and Sir Michael Stoute tomorrow. He hasn’t been seen out this season so his fitness must be taken on trust but if he is your selection, I wouldn’t put you off. KING’S APOSTLE has steadily improved over the past couple of seasons and confirmed his well being with a sound effort behind Utmost Respect in the Duke Of York Stakes last month. Tomorrow represents another step up in class but I wouldn’t rule out a strong effort. The final one to interest me is LESSON IN HUMILITY. Karl Burke’s horses have been running well at the Royal Meeting and he has seen a couple finish in the money at big prices. This is her toughest assignment by far but she is a filly with plenty of scope about her and confirmed that when winning a Group 3 at Leopardstown earlier this month. If the principals happen to have an off day, she could be one to benefit.

SHORTLIST

J J THE JET PLANE
SACRED KINGDOM
IALYSOS

4.25 Ascot – Wokingham Stakes

We have had a few near misses over the last couple of days, so let’s hope that the trends can come through for us in the Wokingham. The first trend to consider is that off age. Four and five-years-old have practically had a strangle hold over the race in the last decade, with only the 2006 winner Baltic King denting their very impressive run of form. As a result I am extremely wary about the older runners this year and would have to say that ASSET, ZIDANE, BEAVER PATROL,, KNOT IN WOOD, TAMAGIN, NOTA BENE, CARCINETTO, ADVANCED, MARKAB, ORPSIE BOY, PEARLY WEY, JOSEPH HENRY, OSIRIS WAY, SOMETHING and RIVER FALCON look to have it all to prove.

Official ratings are the next area to consider as the trends are suggesting that there is a swing in favour of those rated 100 plus, just like four of the last six winners. ROCK OF ROCHELLE heads the weights this year on 108 and I would include everything down to PROHIBIT. Whilst this appears to be the strongest trend, as a bare minimum I would suggest looking no further than those rated 96 and so EXCLAMATION, EVENS AND ODDS, MAJOR EAZY, GENKI and HIGH STANDING shouldn’t be completely overlooked on this trend alone.

Given the competitive nature of the Wokingham it is quite remarkable that ten of the last eleven winners achieved a top four finish on their most recent start. Those remaining that match with this strong trend are SOHRAAB, JIMMY STYLES and HIGH STANDING, so all of a sudden the 31 runners are down to three. All three qualify having raced within the last 30 days, just like eight of the last eleven winners. Ten of the last eleven winners had been drawn no more than seven stalls from either rail so JIMMY STYLES and HIGH STANDING remain strong choices based on their draw in stalls 1 and 28 respectively, but SOHRAAB doesn’t make as much appeal from stall 17. In redemption, Hughie Morrison has a more than respectable record in the Wokingham, so should we write SOHRAAB off? The top four on the betting have won seven of the last eleven renewals so JIMMY STYLES and HIGH STANDING earn their place on the short list, as at the time of writing both look to be vying for favouritism.

SHORTLIST

JIMMY STYLES
HIGH STANDING
SOHRAAB
NOTA BENE

CONCLUSION

With the trends suggesting that we look for a four or five-year-old that achieved a top four finish last time and is officially rated at least 96 only three officially make it onto the shortlist. When I redesigned the Summer Festivals Betting Guide to include some of the more competitive handicaps, I had hoped that it would help to throw up some big priced animals and so far this week we haven’t fared too badly in the Royal Hunt Cup and Britannia. However, the shortlist for the Wokingham includes the two market leaders, but if that is what the trends suggest we will have to go with it. Clive Cox’s horses remain in good heart at the moment so it is encouraging that JIMMY STYLES performs very well from a trends point of view. Un-raced as a juvenile, he looked a progressive handicapper in 2007 and won over course and distance on his reappearance on 2008. Seven days later he ran another sound race when upped in class but obviously suffered a set back as he wasn’t seen out for the rest of the season. He showed no ill effects when making his return over course and distance in May, only going down by 1L to Striking Spirit. That run obviously blew away the cobwebs as he was very impressive next time, winning a Class 2 Handicap at Newmarket. That victory puts him on a career high mark tomorrow but with few miles on the clock, he still looks relatively unexposed and from stall 1 I can see him running a big race.

HIGH STANDING goes toe to toe with him from a trends point of view and comes into the race at the top of his game. After three poor maiden efforts he started off his career rated a very modest 38 but that proved a spring board for him as after a better effort in a maiden at Yarmouth, he won his next three starts when stepping into handicap company and was runner up in his next two. He got off the mark for 2009 at the first time of asking at Doncaster in May and despite a 6lbs rise up the weights he followed up easily in a competitive Class 2 handicap at Goodwood at the end of the month. The handicapper put him up 7lbs as a result but tomorrow he gets in under a 5lbs penalty, so theoretically he is a couple of pounds better off. Those of you who saw him win at Goodwood will obviously know how easily he did it, drawing clear in the closing stages to win being eased. I don’t think 5lbs will be enough to stop him being competitive here but there are a couple of points to be cautious about. He is a confirmed hold-up horse so he will need to get the splits when the front runners start to come back to him and his stall 28 draw is a slight worry as so far this week the winners over the sprints have tended to come from a low to mid draw.

SOHRAAB is next best, meeting all of the major trends. However, they are suggesting that his stall 17 draw isn’t ideal but I am not so sure based on what we have seen so far this week. He is much more experienced than the first two on the list and confirmed that he has retained that zest for racing when chasing home Chief Editor at Newbury in April. He stepped up on that to win over 5f at Chester in May before running a respectable race behind J J The Jet Plane at Windsor earlier this month. Most of his wins have come over 5f but he has run well over course and distance in the past and Hughie Morrison obviously feels that he is up to the job.

I really struggled to put up a fourth selection as nothing meets all of the key trends. SOAP WARS would appear to be rated too low and has a 70 day absence to overcome but he is drawn close to a rail and is the right age and a last time out winner. ROKER PARK is another that appears to be rated too low and Kevin Ryan has a poor record in this race, but he looks to have a good draw in stall 5. Therefore, I have used for a bit of poetic licence and gone for the seven-year-old NOTA BENE. Other than his age, he sits well with the trends and should have a decent passage from stall 13. Richard Hughes looks a positive booking, as he rode him on both starts in Dubai, so he obviously knows the horse well. I think he remains on a positive mark at the moment and he looks to hold every chance if building on a decent effort at Lingfield last month.
5.00 Ascot – Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes

HATTON FLIGHT has been in a rich vein of form this season and as hard as I try I am finding it hard to pick holes in the form. Despite being on a career high mark, I thought he won with plenty of authority at Newmarket last time and even though he is 5lbs higher tomorrow I don’t think the handicapper has his measure just yet. The reason for that is that he only does enough to win his races and I don’t think we have quite seen what he is capable off when he needs to pull out all the stops. DRILL SERGEANT has been running consistently well in defeat this season but as a result the handicapper hasn’t relented. However, Mark Johnston is due a winner so I wouldn’t rule him out. RECORD BREAKER is another from his stable not without chances after his victory at Hamilton last week but I think the handicapper has been harsh awarding him 10lbs as a result. ROAD TO LOVE makes up his trio of runners and on the best of his form would have a chance but he doesn’t look the force of old so it’s hard to see where the improvement will come from. Just above him on the card is the unexposed CRACKENTORP. Given that it was his first attempt at the trip I thought he ran with plenty of credit at Goodwood last month, only losing out to a similarly progressive rival. He is in receipt of plenty of weight here and I can see him mounting a bold bid under Seb Sanders. YOUNG MICK is something of an Ascot specialist and won this race in 2006. He drops below 100 for the first time in a while tomorrow so he is another not to be discounted lightly. SIBERIAN TIGER is an interesting runner for Tony Martin. Based with Mick Channon last year, he showed some reasonable form over 9/10f and since his move to Ireland he has had a few unsuccessful spins over hurdles. He remains fairly high in the weights but is unexposed over this sort of trip and his trainer certainly knows the time of day in these competitive large field handicaps.

SHORTLIST

HATTON FLIGHT
CRACKENTORP
SIBERIAN TIGER
DRILL SERGEANT

5.35 Ascot – Queen Alexandra Stakes

At the ripe old age of twelve CARACCIOLA showed his younger rivals a clean pair of heels when winning a listed affair at York last month. It really was a remarkable effort but I can’t help but feel he is vulnerable over this marathon trip trying to concede upwards of 5lbs. Stable mate TASHEBA hasn’t run on the level since finishing third at Nottingham last August. However, he has won two hurdles earlier this year so won’t be left wanting for stamina and the booking of Richard Hughes looks a positive move. BULKWARK is rated to go close but he is a law unto himself and you never know what sort of performance you are going to get. I have HALLA SAN down as a potential winner after he chased home CARACCIOLA last month. A mile and a half was always going to be on the sharp side for him and I expect to see much better now that he is given a real stamina test. The other horse I think is better than the bare form suggests is AMERIGO who in my opinion is better the further he goes. Runner-up in last year’s Queen’s Vase, he made a pleasing reappearance in the Chester Cup before he finding the two miles at Haydock last time a bit on the sharp side. He is clearly better than that showing and I can see him bouncing back over this sort of trip. TYRRELLS WOOD looked impressive when stepped up in trip at Pontefract earlier this month and although he is someway short on official ratings, it isn’t totally beyond belief that he can carry on improving. One thing is for sure; if the 40 rated STERLING MOLL wins tomorrow I shall give up betting and commit myself into the nearest asylum.

SHORTLIST

HALLA SAN
AMERIGO
TYRRELLS WOOD