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NORTHUMBERLAND PLATE – NEWCASTLE, June 27th

This is one of my favourite races of the whole season (helped by the fact I backed Mirjan @ 33/1 back in 2004!) and it is no surprise to see a high quality field going to post considering the first prize is well over £100k.

The first major trend that we must try and get our head round concerns ratings. With eight of the last ten renewals going to horses rated 85-94 we should be able to dismiss any horse that doesn’t fall into this category. Of the more interesting contenders we have the likes of MEETHAAQ (90), HENDERSYDE (90), WELLS LYRICAL (91) the Mark Johnston pair of RECORD BREAKER and KEENES DAY (both 93, although Record Breaker is due to race off 100 in the near future) and SPEED TICKET (93). Interestingly JUDGETHEMOMENT is officially rated 91 but races here under a 5lb penalty after his Royal Ascot win meaning that his rating is bumped up to 96.

Despite this being contested over a distance in excess of 2m a low draw is high desirably owing to the left handed turn that comes pretty quickly after the stalls open. We need to give preferential treatment to those drawn low so HENDERSYDE (5), WELLS LYRICAL (2), KEENES DAY (7) and SPEED TICKET (9) all look favourably treated.

We have quite a few that meet our next trend, 11 in fact, which is to side with those that finished in the top 3 on their most recent outing. HITS ONLY VIC, JUDGETHEMOMENT and HENDERSYDE were all victorious last time out so they easily qualifier but FRISTON FOREST, AJAAN, SPEED TICKET, RECORD BREAKER and WELLS LYRICAL all acquitted themselves with credit in finishing second.

One of the strongest trends for this race centres on the fact that nine of the last ten winners came here after running in the last 38 days. WELLS LYRICAL, CARTE DIAMOND, ELECTROLYSER, DESERT SEA, MESHTRI and AJAAN all miss out here but certainly in a couple of these cases you could argue the absence has been deliberate but we’ll touch on this later.

Seven of the last ten winners had previous winning form over 1m 6f or further. To me this is one trend that actually slightly surprises me as I’d of thought the figure would have been closer to nine, or even ten, out of ten. This race is a real test for a horse and so for my money you really need something that will see out the trip. Six horses miss out including the well fancied SPEED TICKET along with MISCHIEF MAKING, ELECTROLYSER, TILT, MEETHAAQ and BUDDHIST MONK.

Having earlier alluded to the fact I was fortunate enough to grab some of the 33/1 about Len Lungo’s Mirjan back in 2004 the betting was an area I was keen to explore. Eight of the last ten have actually emerged from the top 8 of the betting, although only 2 have actually been favourites. The current market leaders are KEENES DAY and SPEED TICKET with the likes of AJAAN, JUDGETHEMOMENT, WELLS LYRICAL and HENDERSYDE not far behind.

Other positive trends that are worth considering focus on age and a certain key race. Four-year-olds are just about the strongest age group here meaning HENDERSYDE, WELLS LYRICAL, KEENES DAY and JUDGETHEMOMENT all gain an extra brownie point. The best form guide here is the Ascot Stakes run at the Royal meeting. This took place eleven days ago and saw victory for JUDGETHEMOMENT with SOM TALA (5th), KEENES DAY (9th) and VALENTINO ROSSI (19th) in behind.

SHORTLIST

HENDERSYDE
(WELLS LYRICAL)
(JUDGETHEMOMENT)
(KEENES DAY)

CONCLUSION

We have a clear winner! HENDERSYDE for trainer Walter Swinburn sets the standard on the trends and on the evidence we have at our disposal he could well take some beating. Interestingly, when I looked at the race before I started applying the trends I had a horse in mind as the one I was most interested in and yes, you’ve guessed it, it was Hendersyde so I’m pretty pleased I get to put him up as the number 1 hope! He meets all of our positive trends as well as being a four-year-old so it is no surprise to see him leading our shortlist. He produced a taking performance when winning at Newmarket last time out, a victory that means he is on a hat-trick coming into today’s race. He is versatile ground wise so should conditions remain quick that’s fine but a spot of rain shouldn’t hinder his chances either. He looks rock solid.

The Bryan Smart trained WELLS LYRICAL is next best. He hasn’t been seen since April so he fails us on the ‘ran in the last 38 days trend’ but it is quite easy to believe he has been deliberately laid out for this so I’m not too concerned by this. He looks to have plenty going for him and with conditions in his favour there seems no reason why he won’t get involved.

JUDGETHEMOMENT has been in cracking form so far this year and actually arrives here unbeaten this season. His latest success came at Royal Ascot when he captured the Ascot Stakes (an informative race for this event) and once again he has the assistance of Richard Hughes in the saddle. The worry for him is the draw. He is boxed in 21 and that isn’t ideal, not just as you need a low draw here but also when you consider his recent in-running comments. Three wins this season and the comments have been “made all”, “held up in touch” and “tracked leaders”. If connections feel he is best at the head of affairs then Hughes will have to be at his best to get across early from his outside pitch.

The final place on the shortlist was a straight fight between KEENES DAY and SOM TALA. Lets looks at Keenes Day first and he produces a fine trends performance (equal with Wells Lyrical on the plusses) and when you factor in he is a four-year-old that contested the Ascot Stakes you see that he looks a clear trends horse. The only niggle is his trainer, Mark Johnston. We all know how good he is at training stayers so his record here (0-0-8) is a worry and that earns Keenes Day a black mark. I have opted for him over SOM TALA however because he does look a horse on the up and as long as this doesn’t come too soon after Ascot then he looks booked to go well. On the other side of things Mick Channon’s runner is a familiar face in these types of races and I don’t mind admitting he has cost me a pretty penny in recent times. His last win came back in September 2006 but he knows what it takes to run well in a race of this nature (if not to win!) and ticks plenty of the right boxes. He didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out but his fifth place finish in the Ascot Stakes was perfectly respectable. Looking at the facts he is a horse that likes to be given his head and if Tony Culhane lets him stride on from stall 4 I wouldn’t be surprised to see him boxing on when others have cried enough.

There are a few others that catch the eye, not least Irish raider SPEED TICKET and the Sir Michael Stout trained MEETHAAQ. AJAAN looks to have been laid out for this whilst at the head of the handicap FRISTON FOREST and THE BETCHWORTH KID have plenty of class but are probably weighted out of it.