bettrends.co.uk

SATURDAY 27th JUNE

2.05 Newcastle
At first glance I thought this was simply ‘how far’ for WAR ARTIST and although that may well prove correct I don’t think it’s as easy as I originally thought. He makes his seasonal debut here and on official ratings he is the one to beat as well as bringing some top notch form to the table from last year (2nd in the Golden Jubilee and 3rd in the July Cup). If he is fit to go then this should provide him with the perfect prep race for next months July Cup. ANCIEN REGIME is one that interests me as he has always looked a horse of great potential and he was only beaten 1 ½ lengths in last season’s Group 1 Sprint Cup. That run gives him an obvious chance but he too returns from a lengthy lay-off and he does have something to find on ratings with the selection. The one that does catch my eye against the likely favourite though is Bryan Smart’s SPIN CYCLE. It is probably fair to say he hasn’t quite lived up to expectations since he was beaten just a head in last year’s Norfolk Stakes. His only win since then was in a Conditions event at Musselburgh (a track he is 2 from 2 on). He was taken off his feet in last week’s King’s Stand Stakes so it may be best to forgive him that run and with a handy 7lb weight-for-age allowance he isn’t out of this. Art Connoisseur made that allowance count last weekend and this chap could go well at a price.

WAR ARTIST
SPIN CYCLE e/w

2.20 Newmarket

Not the easiest race to try and solve but the two that do make some appeal are KURTANELLA and MUDAARAAH. The former unshipped her rider in last week’s Queen Mary at Royal Ascot but prior to that she’d been a handy winner at Newbury and she can be given the chance to confirm that good impression in this contest, despite stepping up a furlong in trip. Stable mate REACH FOR THE SKY must also be feared but it is the John Dunlop runner, Mudaaraah that could provide the biggest threat. She made the perfect start to her career when winning at Folkestone earlier this month and she has the sort of profile, and pedigree, which puts her on the shortlist for this contest. JIRA wasn’t disgraced at Royal Ascot on her last outing and should fine this level much more to her liking.

KURTANELLA
MUDAARAAH

2.35 Newcastle
This looks as competitive as you could wish for but it could be worth siding with all weather specialist ATLANTIC STORY. Yes his strike rate isn’t anywhere near as good on turf but he looks capable of winning on grass and he is certainly handicapped to do so. His latest effort at Redcar (when 3rd) was encouraging and although this will be just his second start over the 6f trip his only previous run saw him beaten just 5 lengths behind Main Aim in a 21 runner handicap at Doncaster. If he can repeat that run, and there seems no reason why he can’t, then he should be involved. TAJNEED was second in last year’s Ayr Gold Cup and has a clear form chance but the suspicion is he needs the rain to come so THEBES would be my next best. He is a consistent sort who should run his race and looks solid placepot material. VAN BOSSED ran better than the form figures suggest in last week’s Wokingham and is respected if he can reproduce that run.

ATLANTIC STORY

2.50 Newmarket
This looks a trappy little contest but Godolphin saddle AGE OF REASON who looks progressive after he finished 2nd in Group 1 company to supplement some valuable races he picked up in Dubai. Since moving from Mark Johnston’s yard he looks to have improved and he must take the beating.
WASAN is a horse I like although his stamina must be taken on trust on this step up in trip. He won impressively over 10f at Lingfield last time out and though his pedigree raises a question mark over this 12f trip he looks a quality animal who is well up to winning at this level. ALL THE ACES looks a danger too and he must be respected accordingly. CLASSIC PUNCH won this in 2007 and warmed up for another crack at the prize when easily winning at Ripon while YELLOWSTONE hasn’t shown much this season and is passed over once more.

AGE OF REASON

3.00 Windsor
I like the claims of PREMIO LOCO here now he has proved he can mix it on the turf. He had looked a real AW specialist but his recent Listed win at Goodwood shows he can translate that form to grass and he could easily follow up here. That latest win also showed he can handle rather unique tracks so the figure of eight course here shouldn’t pose too many problems and he looks a good bet. The consistent ORDINANCE ROW looks the one most likely to capitalise should the selection fail to deliver after he finished 2nd in this race twelve months ago. Hopefully he’ll have to settle for the same position this time behind Chris Wall’s runner.

PREMIO LOCO

3.10 Newcastle
This is one of my favourite races of the whole season (helped by the fact I backed Mirjan @ 33/1 back in 2004!) and it is no surprise to see a high quality field going to post considering the first prize is well over £100k.

The first major trend that we must try and get our head round concerns ratings. With eight of the last ten renewals going to horses rated 85-94 we should be able to dismiss any horse that doesn’t fall into this category. Of the more interesting contenders we have the likes of MEETHAAQ (90), HENDERSYDE (90), WELLS LYRICAL (91) the Mark Johnston pair of RECORD BREAKER and KEENES DAY (both 93, although Record Breaker is due to race off 100 in the near future) and SPEED TICKET (93). Interestingly JUDGETHEMOMENT is officially rated 91 but races here under a 5lb penalty after his Royal Ascot win meaning that his rating is bumped up to 96.

Despite this being contested over a distance in excess of 2m a low draw is high desirably owing to the left handed turn that comes pretty quickly after the stalls open. We need to give preferential treatment to those drawn low so HENDERSYDE (5), WELLS LYRICAL (2), KEENES DAY (7) and SPEED TICKET (9) all look favourably treated.

We have quite a few that meet our next trend, 11 in fact, which is to side with those that finished in the top 3 on their most recent outing. HITS ONLY VIC, JUDGETHEMOMENT and HENDERSYDE were all victorious last time out so they easily qualifier but FRISTON FOREST, AJAAN, SPEED TICKET, RECORD BREAKER and WELLS LYRICAL all acquitted themselves with credit in finishing second.

One of the strongest trends for this race centres on the fact that nine of the last ten winners came here after running in the last 38 days. WELLS LYRICAL, CARTE DIAMOND, ELECTROLYSER, DESERT SEA, MESHTRI and AJAAN all miss out here but certainly in a couple of these cases you could argue the absence has been deliberate but we’ll touch on this later.

Seven of the last ten winners had previous winning form over 1m 6f or further. To me this is one trend that actually slightly surprises me as I’d of thought the figure would have been closer to nine, or even ten, out of ten. This race is a real test for a horse and so for my money you really need something that will see out the trip. Six horses miss out including the well fancied SPEED TICKET along with MISCHIEF MAKING, ELECTROLYSER, TILT, MEETHAAQ and BUDDHIST MONK.

Having earlier alluded to the fact I was fortunate enough to grab some of the 33/1 about Len Lungo’s Mirjan back in 2004 the betting was an area I was keen to explore. Eight of the last ten have actually emerged from the top 8 of the betting, although only 2 have actually been favourites. The current market leaders are KEENES DAY and SPEED TICKET with the likes of AJAAN, JUDGETHEMOMENT, WELLS LYRICAL and HENDERSYDE not far behind.

Other positive trends that are worth considering focus on age and a certain key race. Four-year-olds are just about the strongest age group here meaning HENDERSYDE, WELLS LYRICAL, KEENES DAY and JUDGETHEMOMENT all gain an extra brownie point. The best form guide here is the Ascot Stakes run at the Royal meeting. This took place eleven days ago and saw victory for JUDGETHEMOMENT with SOM TALA (5th), KEENES DAY (9th) and VALENTINO ROSSI (19th) in behind.

SHORTLIST

HENDERSYDE
(WELLS LYRICAL)
(JUDGETHEMOMENT)
(KEENES DAY)

CONCLUSION

We have a clear winner! HENDERSYDE for trainer Walter Swinburn sets the standard on the trends and on the evidence we have at our disposal he could well take some beating. Interestingly, when I looked at the race before I started applying the trends I had a horse in mind as the one I was most interested in and yes, you’ve guessed it, it was Hendersyde so I’m pretty pleased I get to put him up as the number 1 hope! He meets all of our positive trends as well as being a four-year-old so it is no surprise to see him leading our shortlist. He produced a taking performance when winning at Newmarket last time out, a victory that means he is on a hat-trick coming into today’s race. He is versatile ground wise so should conditions remain quick that’s fine but a spot of rain shouldn’t hinder his chances either. He looks rock solid.

The Bryan Smart trained WELLS LYRICAL is next best. He hasn’t been seen since April so he fails us on the ‘ran in the last 38 days trend’ but it is quite easy to believe he has been deliberately laid out for this so I’m not too concerned by this. He looks to have plenty going for him and with conditions in his favour there seems no reason why he won’t get involved.

JUDGETHEMOMENT has been in cracking form so far this year and actually arrives here unbeaten this season. His latest success came at Royal Ascot when he captured the Ascot Stakes (an informative race for this event) and once again he has the assistance of Richard Hughes in the saddle. The worry for him is the draw. He is boxed in 21 and that isn’t ideal, not just as you need a low draw here but also when you consider his recent in-running comments. Three wins this season and the comments have been “made all”, “held up in touch” and “tracked leaders”. If connections feel he is best at the head of affairs then Hughes will have to be at his best to get across early from his outside pitch.

The final place on the shortlist was a straight fight between KEENES DAY and SOM TALA. Lets looks at Keenes Day first and he produces a fine trends performance (equal with Wells Lyrical on the plusses) and when you factor in he is a four-year-old that contested the Ascot Stakes you see that he looks a clear trends horse. The only niggle is his trainer, Mark Johnston. We all know how good he is at training stayers so his record here (0-0-8) is a worry and that earns Keenes Day a black mark. I have opted for him over SOM TALA however because he does look a horse on the up and as long as this doesn’t come too soon after Ascot then he looks booked to go well. On the other side of things Mick Channon’s runner is a familiar face in these types of races and I don’t mind admitting he has cost me a pretty penny in recent times. His last win came back in September 2006 but he knows what it takes to run well in a race of this nature (if not to win!) and ticks plenty of the right boxes. He didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out but his fifth place finish in the Ascot Stakes was perfectly respectable. Looking at the facts he is a horse that likes to be given his head and if Tony Culhane lets him stride on from stall 4 I wouldn’t be surprised to see him boxing on when others have cried enough.

There are a few others that catch the eye, not least Irish raider SPEED TICKET and the Sir Michael Stout trained MEETHAAQ. AJAAN looks to have been laid out for this whilst at the head of the handicap FRISTON FOREST and THE BETCHWORTH KID have plenty of class but are probably weighted out of it.

3.25 Newmarket

This looks a cracking race. HUNTDOWN is the one for me on his first start for Godolphin. Ok they haven’t been having the best of seasons thus far but their 13% strike rate isn’t the worst in the country and their runner here looks an exciting recruit. He won his maiden impressively last season before going on to finish 3rd in the Middle Park and then be beaten just over 3 lengths in the Dewhurst. He has apparently been working really well at home and looks ready to make his debut for the year. Faster ground would have made him even more attractive but underfoot conditions shouldn’t really be an excuse. Interestingly he gets a massive 9lb allowance here on account of him being a three-year-old. COURT MASTERPIECE, DREAM EATER and the South African trained IMBONGI look serious opponents and will give the selection plenty to think about.

HUNTDOWN

3.40 Curragh
This Group 1 looks a cracker and my feeling is that John Oxx can land it with KATIYRA. It has been well reported that this has been a long term target for her and although this is her first start since October I wouldn’t be too concerned seeing as the ground in Ireland has been mostly heavy so far this season. She improved markedly throughout last season and looks ready to claim her first top level success. LOOK HERE is a big threat and started the season in cracking form when finishing a close third in the Coronation Cup at Epsom. With just five career starts under her belt she looks to still be improving and while she obviously has the class to take this I’m a little worried over the trip. Connections were mulling over the Eclipse for her so they clearly don’t agree. However she contested the St Leger last season and from the way she stayed on strongly when landing the Oaks, and on her seasonal debut, I’m not sure that 10f on quick(ish) ground in a small field (when they could go no gallop) is exactly what she needs. DAR RE MI is as consistent as they come with top fillies’ and she strikes me as the biggest threat to the selection as I couldn’t be backing the high class LUSH LASHES until she shows some of last season’s spark (she was very disappointing at Royal Ascot).

KATIYRA

3.45 Newcastle
If you take the view that Royal Ascot Handicaps tend to be races to follow then HORATIO CARTER is certainly one to be interested in today. He finished 2nd in his group in last week’s Buckingham Palace Stakes despite coming home in 9th and the fact he gets to race from the same mark today, in what looks a seemingly less competitive race, can only be a good thing. 7f is definitely his trip and everything looks in place for a big run. Irish raider LIME TREE VALLEY merits a second look in the market with the booking of Jamie Spencer catching the eye while ESOTERICA should be more at home on this track having looked ill at ease at Chester last time out. His fifth placed finish that day scuppered his hat-trick bid but it would come as no surprise to see him bounce back to form. LINDORO is a horse that could pay his way this term and he is worth keeping an eye on.

HORATIO CARTER

4.00 Newmarket
The one that catches my eye here is WINTERCAST. This lightly raced sort has only seen the racecourse 4 times despite being a four-year-old, and 3 of those runs have come this season. On each occasion this term he has run with plenty of promise with arguably his best performance coming last time out when he finished second over this trip at Sandown. 10f looks his ideal trip and, although he has edged up the handicap, he looks capable of scoring off his current mark. He looks the most interesting member of the field as CHARLIE COOL, PROPONENT and GRAND PASSION are all exposed, a comment that could also be levelled at basically all the other members of the field. Perhaps the only one to avoid such a label would be ALAZEYAB but even he hasn’t really sparkled yet this term, although this does look his easiest assignment thus far.

WINTERCAST
 

SUNDAY 28th JUNE

3.10 Curragh
Aidan O’Brien has won this race nine times in the last ten years and he should continue that amazing record thanks to ALFRED NOBEL. In his first two starts he hinted at potential when placed at both Naas and over this course and distance but we really got an angle on how good he could be when he finally got to race on a quick surface last time out. That came over 7f at Leopardstown when he picked up nicely for Johnny Murtagh to win going away. The drop back in trip won’t be as much of a concern as the overnight rain that has apparently fallen and turned the ground to yielding. Hopefully though that will be it from the heavens and, on drying ground, Alfred Nobel looks the one to beat. LOVE LOCKDOWN has won his last three starts, the latest coming at Listed level so he certainly deserves a crack at this prize. He only ever does enough and it is difficult to get a handle on just how good he is.

ALFRED NOBEL

4.20 Curragh – IRISH DERBY
The big issue here is the ground. John Oxx has publicly said that even the slightest doubt over the ground and SEA THE STARS will not line up. There has apparently been plenty of overnight rain at The Curragh which has put the Guineas / Derby winner’s participation severely in doubt. With this in mind FAME AND GLORY would appear the obvious next stop after his fast finishing second at Epsom. Johnny Murtagh gets the leg up on this occasion and, with O’Brien saddling 6 others in the race, you can be sure the race will be run to suit the Ballydoyle number 1 hope. For me though I’m looking elsewhere for the winner, step forward GAN AMHRAS. He blatantly failed to handle his whole English Derby experience. He looked ill at ease on the track and never at any stage did he look settled. He is quoted at around 16/1 for this event and that looks huge for my money. What price would he be if he was coming here straight from finishing 3rd in the 2000 Guineas? Probably half the price. He wouldn’t be the first horse to not handle Epsom and then bounce back to form, in fact cast your mind back twelve months to Frozen Fire who finished 11th behind New Approach at Epsom before winning here. If there is a worry then it would be over the rather subdued performances of stable mates Intense Focus and Lush Lashes at Royal Ascot. Still, at 16/1 I’m willing take the chance.

GAN AMHRAS e/w