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Wednesday 29th July

2.10 Goodwood – Range Rover Best of British Goodwood Stakes

It may not be the classiest race but this 2m5f marathon is one of my favourite races from Glorious Goodwood. SOM TALA heads the weights after his hard fought victory in the Northumberland Plate but he will find this tougher off a 3lbs higher mark and I would also be worried that the ground is plenty quick enough for him. BADDAM used to be with Mick Channon and proved his stamina with wins in the Ascot Stakes and Queen Alexandra Stakes at Royal Ascot in 2006. He won this race last year for new trainer Ian Williams off a mark 1lb lower than tomorrow but he has been well of that mark so far this season and will need to improve if he is to follow up. Even though TYRRELLS WOOD is 7lbs higher than when not getting a lot of room in the Queen Alexandra Stakes, I think he could still be open to some improvement. Stamina is clearly his forte, so he will be staying on when others are crying enough. SWINGKEEL was an easy winner over two miles at Kempton last time and looks another progressive stayer for the future. Tomorrows trip is an unknown but from his racing style I wouldn’t have thought he would have too much of a problem. He too is up 7lbs but I couldn’t rule out a bold effort. WOOLFALL TREASURE has had a few spins over hurdles but got his season on the level off to a fine start at Salisbury. He didn’t run too badly off his new mark when 6th in the Ascot Stakes but I think he was ridden to get the trip. Stamina didn’t prove a problem as he was staying on stoutly to the line and I believe that Ryan Moore will be bolder tomorrow and ride him nearer the pace to ensure that he is able to deliver his challenge. ALWAYS BOLD was 8th in that particular Ascot contest and followed that up with a reasonable effort when 2nd at Catterick earlier this month. He looks on a winning mark and should have no problem with the trip but I can’t help but feel that he is a little one paced making him vulnerable here. Aaim To Prosper was no match for SWINGKEEL at Kempton but ran out a worthy winner at Newbury 11 days ago. He will find this tougher off a 4lbs higher mark and I also think he would appreciate a little more cut in the ground. RELATIVE STRENGTH has been running consistently well this term but is untried over this sort of trip, having previously raced over no further than 1m6f. Whether he gets it is anyone’s guess. A similar comment applies to VALDAN and if that wasn’t enough I would also say that the handicapper has him where he wants him. SUFAD is weighted to run well but he has been out of form for a while now and his stamina is also unproven. ABSOLUT POWER has form to find with most of the market principals and is without a win since 2006. ALNWICK could prove a dark horse as he has steadily progressed with each start this season, culminating in a narrow defeat by AAIM TO PROSPER at Newbury last time. The pair re-oppose on identical terms tomorrow but I feel he is the one more likely to cope with the step up in trip. AMERICAN SPIN is pretty unexposed but on what we have seen so far doesn’t look good enough. LAST FLIGHT is another that could creep under the radar. She hasn’t won on the level since 2007 but she has won three times over hurdles already this year and clearly has stamina in abundance. A rating of 73 goes way back to 2007 and there is a chance that she has progressed past that with her hurdling experience. SWEETHEART represents Ron Huggins, owner of the prolific stayer Double Trigger and it would be a welcome sight to see those famous colours back in the winners’ enclosure. The trip shouldn’t pose a problem but the ground may just be on the quick side for him. KASBAN was 12th in this race last year and although he is 5lbs lower this time around he still looks held. MARKINGTON has been prolific so far this season winning four of his six starts. A season hurdling followed by a step up in trip looked to have worked the oracle as he has won the last three on the spin. He is up 6lbs since winning at Newcastle but with him in this vein of form I wouldn’t rule out further improvement. Although SHORE THING has been running over hurdles I still feel his stamina is unproven over this sort of trip whilst CASUAL GARCIA and SWORDSMAN looks held off their current marks.

SHORTLIST

TYRELLS WOOD
WOOLFALL TREASURE
LAST FLIGHT
MARKINGTON

2.45 Goodwood – Veuve Clicquot Vintage Stakes

Whatever happens, make sure you watch this Group 2 as it has a history of throwing up some very smart horses. BIG AUDIO looks the pick of the Hannon pair on jockey bookings and probably rightly so after his surprise win in the Chesham. He was firmly put in his place in the Superlative Stakes and even though he didn’t get a lot of luck in running, I don’t think he would have troubled the winner. ROI DE VITESSE finished 2nd in that race confirmed the earlier promise that he had shown over 6f and he is certainly worth his place in the line up. LUCKY GENERAL was 4th, beaten 2L, but probably threw his chance away by hanging to his left when coming under pressure. He is entitled to improve for the experience and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him. CHAPERNO caught the eye with an easy win at York last time and even though he probably didn’t beat much, he looks open to further improvement now that he steps up in trip. However, quick ground looks the key to this horse so he wouldn’t want to see too much rain. DREAMSPEED, a half-brother to stable mate Dream Eater, accounted for an odds-on favourite on his debut at Sandown earlier this month and made a very pleasing introduction. The fact that Andrew Balding has opted to pitch him into this level for his second start rather than go down the nursery route speaks volumes and there is a chance that he could prove better than his more exposed rivals. Saying that, ISHTAR GATE is another unexposed sort but he wasn’t as visually impressive when winning on his debut at Leicester last month. He looked rather green in the early stages but picked up well once the penny dropped and I know that connections were pleasantly surprised as they expected him to come on for the run. The form of the race has worked out well as both the runner up and third horse home have won since. Stable mate MATA KERANJANG made his debut in a listed contest in Deauville so is clearly held in some regard. He did look a little one paced in that particular contest and although the good to soft may not have suited, it seems a sensible step to up him in trip and he could go well for the 2005 winning jockey. Clive Cox has had a fantastic season so far and XTENSION looks a really promising addition to his team. After an eye catching debut victory at Goodwood, he ran a strange sort of race in the Coventry. After looking outpaced early on, he stayed on really well in the closing stages to finish runner up to the impressive Canford Cliffs, so this step up to 7f should prove ideal. The only filly in the race, SHE’S A CHARACTER ran a similar sort of race in the Albany Stakes when she only got going late on. Although she won on her debut over 6f she looks in need of this step up in trip and shouldn’t be ruled out completely with Richard Fahey’s horses going so well although fillies’ don’t have the best of records in this race.

SHORTLIST

DREAMSPEED
XTENSION

3.25 Goodwood – BGC Sussex Stakes

Looking at the trends surrounding age, three-year-olds would appear to be the age group to follow having won 23 of the last 34 renewals of the Sussex Stakes. However, in more recent years we have seen one four-year-old winner, two five-year-old winners and the winning six-year-old Court Masterpiece. Therefore, whilst I shall marginally favour the three-year-old runners I won’t be discounting any horse on this trend alone.

Aidan O’Brien is the leading trainer with a runner this year as Giant’s Causeway, Rock Of Gibraltar and Henrythenavigator have all won the Sussex Stakes since 2000. RIP VAN WINKLE represents the Irish handler this year along with MALIBU BAY who is surely only running as a pacemaker. Richard Hannon landed a shock in this race in 2003 thanks to the 20/1 outsider Reel Buddy, so PACO BOY is the final horse to receive a positive mention on a training front. It is probably harsh to issue a negative in this area due to the low representation but Mick Channon; trainer of LAHALEEB has seen his last four runners in the race fail to finish in the money whilst Barry Hills, trainer of GHANAATI has seen his last two runners flop.

When it comes to official ratings it would seem sensible to concentrate on those rated 115, just like nine of the last ten winners. If this trend is to be believed, the winner will come from PACO BOY (124), LORD SHANKILL (118), RIP VAN WINKLE (128) and GHANAATI (119). It is also important to concentrate on horses which achieved a top two finish on their most recent start, just like all ten recent Sussex winners. Of the principals only PACO BOY fails that trend but in his defence he did run very well over 6f to finish 4th in the July Cup. Although it is not as important, it is still preferable to side with previous Group 1 winners, just like seven of the last ten winners. PACO BOY qualifies with two Group 1 victories as does GHANAATI thanks to her victories in the 1000 Guineas and Coronation Stakes. LORD SHANKILL is next best with one Group 1 success thanks to his victory in France last time but even though RIP VAN WINKLE has been running well at the highest level, that all important Group 1 success is still eluding him.

Royal Ascot form is another consideration. The St James’s Palace Stakes has been responsible for five recent winners but interesting all five of those had achieved a top two finish. We don’t have Mastercraftsman or Delegator in the line up tomorrow but we do have the 3rd horse home LORD SHANAKILL. The next race to consider is the Queen Anne Stakes which was won in eye-catching fashion by PACO BOY. The Lockinge has also supplied a couple of winners both of which suffered defeat at Newbury, so that is another tick in the PACO BOY box who finished only 4th. The 2000 Guineas has thrown up three recent winners, all of which achieved a top two finish at Newmarket. RIP VAN WINKLE could only finish 4th at Newmarket with LORD SHANAKILL further back in 12th.
The final consideration surrounds the betting. An average winning SP of just short of 5/1 tells us that it is the market principals that dominate this race, although we have only seen three winning favourites and one joint favourite in the last decade. At the time of writing RIP VAN WINKLE heads the betting at around 6/4 followed by GHANAATI at around 2/1 and PACO BOY at around 7/2.

SHORTLIST

PACO BOY

CONCLUSION

With only nine runners I felt it only fair to put one horse on the shortlist and that honour befalls PACO BOY. As I have said, I am not prepared to get too caught up on the age trend and older horses have been having more and more influence on the Sussex Stakes in recent years. Richard Hannon has a decent record in the race having saddled a winner and two placed efforts from just six runners and on top of that he is apparently saddling winners for fun at the moment. He is the second top rated horse in the field on 124, so qualifies on that front but narrowly misses out as he could only finish 4th on his most recent start. However, that effort came in the Group 1 July Cup over 6f when even the staunchest of critics will admit he didn’t entirely get the rub of the green after being held up too far off the pace before finishing strongly. He is a dual Group 1 winner and also has course form, winning the Betfair Cup (Lennox Stakes) at this meeting last year. His Queen Anne and Lockinge form also fit well with the trends as does the fact that is currently 3rd favourite in the betting. Earlier in the year I had him down as a doubtful stayer over a mile but he firmly rubbished that opinion with a draw dropping performance in the Queen Anne. Richard Hughes looked supremely confident that day, letting the horse take him to the front in the closing stages before a shake of the reins saw him easily assert. It was a performance that reminded me of when Rock Of Gibraltar won the Sussex Stakes in 2002 and with Hughesy back on board tomorrow I am hoping for a similar display.

I see GHANAATI as his main rival after her awesome display in the Coronation Stakes, where she broke the track record by .38 seconds. She is clearly an ultra-talented filly and performs well from a trends point of view being a three-year-old, a dual Group 1 winner, a winner last time out, officially rated 119 and currently the 2/1 second favourite. The fact that she is receiving 11lbs from PACO BOY keeps going through my mind and really has me in a quandary. It is hard to judge just how good she is as she has only raced against fillies of her own age Group and it reminds me of a scenario back in 2004. After Attraction’s three Group 1 victories we all thought she was infallible but she was no match for Soviet Song even in receipt of weight. With that in mind I have slightly favoured PACO BOY who has that all important experience under his belt although I think it is a very close call.
Even though Aidan O’Brien has the best record in this race of any trainer I can see holes in the form of RIP VAN WINKLE. The Ballydoyle trainer’s three winners in this race all came from top-class animals, superstars in their own right. I don’t believe RIP VAN WINKLE has achieved that status yet even though he achieved top four finishes in the 2000 Guineas, Derby and Eclipse. He sits reasonably well with the trends although he is yet to score at Group 1 level but how much longer can excuses keep being made. I accept that connections and Johnny Murtagh think a lot of this horse and that he ran a very good race behind Sea The Stars in the Eclipse, with Conduit well held in 3rd. However, I think Mick Kinane always knew he had the race in the bag and Stoute has since admitted Conduit wasn’t himself. There is every chance that he will prove me wrong tomorrow but at 6/4 in this line up I am prepared to take him on.

4.00 Goodwood – Racing UK Stakes

This is what Glorious Goodwood is all out, a top-class handicap with most of the runners coming into the race in tip-top form. I could probably make a strong case for most of the 16 runners but I have narrowed it down to four. In no particular order, SABOTAGE is the first horse to make in onto the shortlist after he impressed me when finishing 3rd at Ascot on Sunday. I always like to back a Johnston horse when they are turned out again quickly and with the Middleham handler having four in the race, there could be some value to be had. AKMAL finished a nose in front of him at York three weeks ago and with the pair re-opposing on identical terms, they look sure to finish close together once again. The fact that Richard Hills has opted for this fellow rather than the hat-trick seeking Johnston runner MATRAASH speaks volumes to me, especially as he is yet to record a victory on John Dunlop’s gelding, so he also makes it on to my final list. I couldn’t leave out COSMIC SUN as he has beaten plenty of his rivals already this season. His victory in the King George V Stakes at the Royal Meeting saw him finish in front of CHIBERTA KING (2nd), BARWELL BRIDGE (3rd), TOPOLSKI (5th), HIGHLAND GLEN (6th) and FIN VIN DE LEU (11th). He wasn’t beaten far next time off his revised rating at Haydock and proved that he is a horse to be reckoned with when winning the Cadbury Cup at York last time. He is up another 3lbs as a result but I am not sure he has finished improving yet especially with the trip and ground looking ideal tomorrow. Of any of those five rivals CHIBERTA KING looks the one most likely to throw a spanner in the works as he only has a length and a quarter to reverse but is 6lbs better off. The final horse I am going to plump for is Sir Mark Prescott’s BRAVEHEART MOVE. After a couple of respectable efforts over 7f last season he really impressed when winning at Chester in May. The step up to a mile and a half suited him well and he looked a colt open to plenty of improvement this season, even though the handicapper responded with an 8lbs hike up the weights. He obviously suffered a setback since then but by all accounts is back to his best and a victory here tomorrow would make the 20/1 currently on offer for the Ebor look very generous.

SHORTLIST

SABOTAGE
AKMAL
COSMIC SUN
BRAVEHEART MOVE

4.35 Goodwood – Markel International Maiden Fillies’ Stakes

Just like the maiden today, the betting will probably prove the best pointer to this race. Of the two to have run POPPY SEED offered the most encouragement when 4th at Newbury on her debut. She looked the likely winner at one point but was quickly swallowed up and run out of the placings. The ground at Newbury was fairly soft that day so there is every chance she will be better on a sounder surface. However, Richard Hughes has opted for the un-raced FIRST TERM, who despite not having the most eye-catching of pedigrees must have been showing plenty at home. Barry Hills has won this race twice in the last decade so BONHEURS ART appeals, especially as she is closely related to some precocious juveniles. Michael Jarvis has been amongst the winners over the past few days so BEYOND DESIRE isn’t discounted lightly, with her being closely related to two precocious animals. DAMIETTA has an American pedigree through and through so may be suited to a faster surface. MYSTIC MILLIE has plenty of speed in her pedigree being out of a half sister to the top-class College Chapel and could be one to go well at a decent price. NIMUE was an expensive purchase costing $310,000 at Fasig-Tipton in March as she is a half sister to a Group 2 winner in the States. That suggests that she might find this 6f on the sharp side but the betting may prove the best key. SPECIALIZING is another that is well bred but may be better over further later in the season.

SHORTLIST

BONHEURS ART

5.10 Goodwood – Country Life Magazine European Breeders’ Fund Fillies’ And Mares’ Stakes

Richard Hannon won this race in 2000 and looks to have a decent chance with the hat-trick seeking ROMANY PRINCESS who was an all out winner at Sandown last Wednesday. Personally, I think her 6lbs penalty might just anchor here but with Hannon’s horses running so well, you never know. I would be against MY AUNT FANNY and ALSACE LORRAINE off their current ratings but I wouldn’t be too quick to write off TRUMPET LILY who gets her ideal trip and is returning to what looks a winnable mark. I am a big fan of OCEAN TRANSIT as I really liked the battling qualities she showed when chasing home Cosmopolitan at Newbury 11 days ago. The step up to a mile really seemed to suit and off only a 1lbs higher mark I think she remains competitive at this level. CLUB TAHITI wasn’t far behind her pair and if anything she was the one to take out of the race as she had to make her challenge away from the main action. She gets in off the same mark tomorrow and with 1m1f looking to suit; she is definitely one for the shortlist. FULL OF LOVE split the pair in 3rd but I didn’t get the impression that the good to soft ground really suited as she looked a little one paced. A return to a sounder surface should help and it looks an intriguing battle between the trio. TOTTIE was highly tried in the Oaks but ultimately she didn’t appear to stay and was ultimately well beaten. Since then she has dropped down in trip and grade but still not managed to get competitive and I am not convinced that this further drop in trip would help. QALAHARI looked a nice prospect last season and confirmed that she had trained on with a reasonable effort in the Spring Cup at Lingfield. She had to wait three months for her return to turf and ran respectably again chasing home a race fit rival at Leicester. She was slightly disappointing in the Sandringham finishing in midfield but to her defence she was slightly short of room in the closing stages. What really encourages me is the fact that she is 5lbs lower tomorrow and I think she has a real chance if recapturing her form of last season when she pushed the recent winners Pyrrha and Ouqba close. I am always reluctant to oppose Gerard Butler’s runners but I find it hard to make a case for FANTASY PRINCESS on what she has shown so far. SUCH OPTIMISM is a fitting name for Ralph Beckett’s mount given her performance on her reappearance at Salisbury last time whilst FANDITHA who finished in front of her in that race looks held at the weights. QUEEN MARTHA had looked progressive when winning at Nottingham and Doncaster earlier in the season but she was well beaten when stepped up to listed class last time. Having watched a replay of the race I am inclined to think that it was the trip that beat her more than anything so I wouldn’t be too quick to write her off over this furlong shorter. ATABAAS ALLURE represents the 2007 winning trainer. She started the season racing over middle distances but improved when dropped back to a mile at Beverley last time. However, I think she may just find on the sharp side tomorrow and I wouldn’t be surprised to see her step back up in trip later in the season. PERFECT FREIND has steadily risen up the handicap ranks this year but I think she is probably in the handicappers grasp now.

SHORTLIST

OCEAN TRANSIT
QALAHARI
CLUB TAHITI

5.45 Goodwood – EBF Kennels Classified Stakes

There is nothing to be learned from the official ratings as most of the runners here are pretty evenly matched. PURISSIMA makes a belated reappearance having last been seen when finishing 10th in last season’s Rockfel. She is clearly a filly held in high regard, especially when you consider that she holds a Matron Stakes entry. I am sure the bookies will latch onto that fact so there may not be too much value about her tomorrow. AXIOM represents the 2006 winning trainer and I think has to be given every chance after a couple of decent performances. His debut at Sandown in May came in a competitive handicap, so the fact that he wasn’t beaten far into 2nd speaks volumes. I also thought he ran with credit when finishing 6th in the Royal Hunt Cup, especially as he didn’t have the kindest of draws. KING’S WONDER won pretty much as he liked over course and distance in May and I thought it was a very encouraging effort given that it was his first start since September and he was 9lbs higher than when recording his previous success. I am not sure why he has been off since but as long as it has left no ill effects, I will interested to see how he goes with a further 7lbs on his back. I don’t really know what to say about MOYNAHAN other than I have a gut feeling that he will run a big race here. Considered worth his place in last season’s 2000 Guineas, he has ultimately disappointed since but I think this drop down in trip could suit him well especially if the ground remains good. The final filly to interest me is PERFECT FLIGHT who has won twice at Goodwood in the past. She clearly needs some ease in the going so I wouldn’t back her if it dries out too much but I think this step up to 7f is what she needs after a chasing home Main Aim at Newbury in May.

SHORTLIST

AXIOM
KING’S WONDER
MOYNAHAN
PERFECT FLIGHT