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Thursday 30th July

2.10 Goodwood – Summer Vase Stakes

Only two horses have carried more than 9st to victory in this race in the last decade and both of those were trained by Mark Johnston so let’s have a look at his runners first. ROMAN REPUBLIC was an impressive winner on his reappearance at Doncaster in June before running a solid race in the Britannia before tiring late on. He ran another sound race at Sandown when finishing 5th from a less than ideal draw but on both occasions gave the impression that a step up in trip was required. That is exactly what he got at Newmarket last time and he ran another encouraging race chasing home the prolific Firebet. He is 3lbs higher tomorrow but he remains open to improvement over this sort of trip. TAKAATUF was well held in 7th at Newmarket but he has dropped to the same mark as when winning on the Rowley Mile in May and could be dangerous to dismiss as he is proven to get the trip. ALPEN GLEN was unraced as a juvenile but that didn’t pose her any problems as she won her first two starts this year. She was well fancied to record the hat-trick at Sandown last time but she ran no sort of a race and was well beaten. It may be that it was too soon after her previous exploits and she is certainly worth another chance now that she takes on her own age group. John Gosden is another trainer to have won this race twice so SOPRANIST comes here with a chance. He remains pretty unexposed having only had the three starts and confirmed that he is an above average colt with a fine display under a big weight at Newmarket last time. He is 4lbs higher tomorrow but I wouldn’t rule out further improvement. I foolishly opposed a Michael Jarvis runner at the weekend only to see him run out a cosy winner at Ascot but I am going to stick my neck out and oppose ALAZEYAB as he looks too high in the weights whilst I am also against SHAMPAGNE as although he is on the whole consistent, he isn’t getting any reprieve from the handicapper. It could be dangerous write off MIRRORED as I feel that he will appreciate this step up in trip and even though he is 8lbs higher than when finishing 3rd in the Britannia, I think he has a big race in him. RIVER CAPTAIN wasn’t far behind him in the Britannia and as he has already won over 10f, he is another not without chances. HYADES, one place back at Ascot gets in here off the same mark so all you Henry Cecil fans should get a run for your money. FASTNET STORM has set a really good impression, winning his last two starts in eye catching manner. He was up 6lbs at Pontefract last time but it made little difference as he won with a degree of ease. His is up another 3lbs here but I am not convinced the handicapper has his measure just yet. Finally, don’t write off DOME ROCKET off a featherweight with the impressive apprentice David Probert taking another 3lbs off.

SHORTLIST

MIRRORED
RIVER CAPTAIN
ROMAN REPUBLIC
FASTNET STORM

2.45 Goodwood – Audi Stakes

I am really looking forward to this race but it is really going to stretch my elegancies! I backed IALYSOS when he won at Haydock and I fancied him quite strongly for the Golden Jubilee but he never got into the race and finished a well beaten 12th. He repaired the damage with a Group 3 success at Sandown last time but carries a 5lbs penalty tomorrow as a result. My other concern is surrounding the ground. Ascot had put plenty of water down overnight before he flopped and I am not convinced he will get his ground tomorrow. Regular readers of the Summer Guide will know that I am a huge fan of Borderlescott and I was thrilled to see him win at Chester last time, beating CAPTAIN GERRARD off level weights in the process. I think he has the measure of most of his rivals here and if you back him you are sure to get a run for your money. DANDY MAN has lost his way so isn’t for me but I would give a squeak to EQUIANO with some cut in the ground. I didn’t think he ran badly in the King’s Stand or the Golden Jubilee so I could see him going well at a decent price. FAT BOY ran a respectable race to finish 5th in this last year but he has only raced once since and that was a pretty dismal effort in the Palace House Stakes. Dandy Nicholls has won this race twice in the last decade so INXILE has to be respected. He looks a progressive sprinter to me after some encouraging efforts this term, including two listed successes at Naas. This gelding is all about speed and wasn’t really suited to the testing conditions at the Curragh last time but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him bounce back on a quicker surface tomorrow. KINGSGATE NATIVE is more than capable of landing this on the best of his form but he will need to find bundles of improvement after disappointing at Ascot last time. MATSUNOSUKE improved all winter on the all weather but I can’t help but think this is a step too far. I shall be having a little saver on the 2007 winner of this race MOORHOUSE LAD. He ran some cracking races at the highest level last term and I believe he has a Group 1 in him even though he has been a bit out of sorts so far this season. REVERENCE isn’t the same horse as when winning the Nunthorpe and Sprint Cup in 2006 and although he has shown the odd glimpse I won’t be backing him. ROWE PARK is a bit of a strange one as I don’t think he gets the credit he deserves possibly due to his smaller connections. There is no doubt that he is suited to a quick 5f and I wouldn’t put anyone off backing him at a big price. I always think SIREN’S GIFT flatters to deceive and that is supported by the fact that she hasn’t won since September 2007. Moving on to the three-year-olds, RIEVAULX WORLD would be appear to be held on his run behind BORDERLESCOTT at Chester last time but he has some decent bits of form to his name and on a going day he isn’t out of this. SPIN CYCLE ran respectably in the King’s Stand but needs to improve to trouble the principals. TOTAL GALLERY has also shown some nice form including when not beaten far in last season’s Richmond. He is speedily bred but I can’t help but feel he is better over a furlong further although he could be dangerous to oppose. JARGELLE looks held by SUGAR FREE judged on her run at Ayr last time but she has run well over course and distance in the past, finishing 3rd in last season’s Molecomb. I am not sure we have seen the best of MYTHICAL BORDER after only three starts last term. She hasn’t been out since finishing down the field in the Cheveley Park so may just need it tomorrow.

SHORTLIST

INXILE
EQUIANO
MOORHOUSE LAD
ROWE PARK

3.25 Goodwood – Coutts Goodwood Cup

Kayf Tara, Royal Rebel, Persian Punch, Jardines Lookout, Darasim, Distinction and Yeats are all past winners of the Goodwood Cup but with respect to Goodwood and the connections of this year’s runners, I don’t see a superstar amongst them. The old timer CARACCIOLA is probably the biggest name after such an illustrious career. When he won last season’s Cesarewitch at 50/1 I put it down to a fluke result but changed my opinion when he won a listed contest at York in May, beating FRISTON FOREST in receipt of 3lbs. I was further impressed when he then followed up in the Queen Alexandra Stakes when he showed his younger rivals a clean pair of heels. The runner up Tyrells Wood runs today in the Goodwood Stakes where a solid performance will add further credibility to Barry Hills’ newest recruit. As much as I want to pick holes in the form, I can’t. So where is the challenge going to come from? FRISTON FOREST is weighted to make a race of it although that is dependent on ground as he is a much better animal when able to get his toe in. He did little wrong when 3rd in the Northumberland Plate on soft ground and if he is able to repeat that, he should go close. However, SCHIAPARELLI looks to be the Godolphin number one although he is another whose participation is ground dependant. There is no doubt that he has the best credentials, being a four times Group 1 winner in his native Germany. He also won the German St Leger over 1m6f, so lack of stamina should not be a concern but I would only consider backing him on good ground or softer. He and ENROLLER were both demoted after rolling about in the Princess Of Wales’s Stakes last time but I think they both found the mile and a half on the sharp side given the conditions, as Willie Muir’s runner is another that needs to get his toe in. Speaking of soft ground lovers, I would give CENTENNIAL a squeak if the heavens opened but I can’t see that happening so I am passing him over. The ex John Oxx inmate MOURILYAN makes his first start for Gary Moore tomorrow and would be the pick if you were to go strictly on official ratings. He ran well over tomorrow’s trip at Nad Al Sheba in February, so trip and ground should not be a problem but he hasn’t raced since March and may just need it. ASKAR TAU looked a highly progressive stayer last season, winning five races on the trot before finishing 4th to CARACCIOLA in the Cesarewitch. For a three-year-old, that was a sterling effort and even though he is racing off a lifetime high tomorrow, I think he remains open to plenty of improvement this season. Tregoning’s problems had left a question mark in my mind but he has saddled two winners in the last couple of days, so I hope for his sake he has turned the corner. The Ascot Stakes winner JUDGETHEMOMENT has proved his liking for a trip and fast ground but his Royal Ascot exploits probably took their toll at Sandown last time as he went out like a light in the closing stages. He has been given a longer rest this time but I do have one concern about the jockey, I have never heard of her! Apparently she is an Australian import but I can’t see that she has much experience of Goodwood, so I am going to give it a miss. THE BETCHWORTH KID has bits of interesting form on a softer surface but ultimately will need to improve by about stone if he is to figure here. Old TUNGSTEN STRIKE is more than capable of winning this at his best and I wouldn’t rule out a return to form as he generally saves his best for Goodwood, finishing 2nd and 3rd in this race in the past.

SHORTLIST

ASKAR TAU
TUNGSTEN STRIKE

4.00 Goodwood – Moet Hennessy Fillies’ Stakes

Sir Percy’s owners look to have a nice filly on their hands with CASSIQUE LADY who earned a well fought victory at Warwick last time, from the equally impressive PRINCESS TAYLOR, and prior to that she had produced another sound effort when a staying on 3rd over 1m4f at Haydock. She should be suited by this step up in trip and looks to hold every chance. However, the Botti runner also caught the eye at Warwick over 1m3f and if anything gave the impression that she would be better over further. She confirmed that was no fluke when chasing home Barshiba at Newmarket last time. On both occasions the ground was softer than ideal so surely there is more to come tomorrow. STARFALA also has form with Barshiba after she chased her home at Haydock in the Lancashire Oaks but of the pair I believe PRINCESS TAYLOR has the more scope for improvement. SUAILCE looked a progressive stayer in Ireland last year and after flopping in heavy conditions at Tipperary on her reappearance has run two solid races in the Saval Beg Stakes and the Curragh Cup. I have seen this filly race a few times and I am convinced that she is a much better horse on a sounder surface. In the races I saw she was held up off the pace early on before staying on well in the closing stages. If she is ridden closer to the pace tomorrow, I think she could be the one they all have to beat. VICTORIA MONTOYA clearly has the stamina for a trip like this and after impressing at Sandown last time in a listed affair, she looks capable of making a fist of it if progressing. DOLLY PENROSE is taking a big step up in class and even though she is a last time out winner and certain to get the trip, I think she will struggle to land a blow in this contest. PRESBYTERIAN NUN didn’t really progress last year and I haven’t been convinced by her form this season either. She was well behind Yes Mr President over course and distance last month who finished 4th here on Tuesday, so she needs to find improvement from somewhere to figure. SEVENNA finished runner-up in that race here and I see no reason for a reversal of form with the Dunlop runner but equally I can’t see Cecil’s filly winning this off a modest 85. Three-year-olds have won three of the last six renewals of this race so LADY ARTEMISIA shouldn’t be discounted lightly. She is still pretty unexposed having only had five starts but she would need to progress a fair bit to trouble the principals.

SHORTLIST

SUAILCE

4.35 Goodwood – XL Insurance Stakes

Only one horse in the last decade has carried more than 9st 1lb to victory, so that suggests BONNIE CHARLIE and INFIRAAD has something to prove. That comment especially applies to Barry Hills’ runner who had looked a very progressive horse until flopping badly in the Jersey. There is every chance that it was just a one off but either way he still has questions to answer in my opinion. It may have only been a four runner affair but I was taken with the effort of PRIME SPIRIT at Haydock a fortnight ago, when he was only narrowly beaten by the solid bench mark Welsh Emperor. Given that it was his first start for just over a year there is every reason to believe that he will be sharper tomorrow, especially on a sounder surface. SHAMWARI LODGE is worth another chance after being given an impossible task at Newmarket last time. I felt he was held up too far off the pace as once he picked up he was doing all his best work late on without ever looking like troubling the winner. Ryan Moore rode him that day, so there is a chance that Richard Hughes will get a better tune out of him as he gave him a much better ride when he was runner up at Epsom the time before. BRAE HILL was well behind him at Newmarket in May but progressed to win a shade comfortably at Chester last month. After tracking the leaders early on he really asserted in fine fashion inside the final furlong and was well in command at the line. The handicapper has responded with a 5lbs rise up the weights but I am not sure it will be enough to stop him mounting a bold bid tomorrow. The rest all have questions to answer in my opinion although DARK MISCHIEF could prove a dark horse for Henry Candy. After winning at Newmarket in May he has run some quite races in defeat which has seen his handicap mark slowly drop. This is his first try at 7f but from what I have seen of him it should prove ideal so he may be worth a small each-way bet.

SHORTLIST

BRAE HILL
PRIME SPIRIT
SHAMWARI LODGE

5.10 Goodwood – EBF New Ham Maiden Fillies’ Stakes

In my opinion this race can’t be a serious betting proposition as there are far too many unknown quantities. I backed WATER BISCUIT at Newmarket last time and almost collected but she was ultimately run down by the well supported Bella Swan. Even so, I thought she ran a very encouraging race as she still looked a little green but still finished a long way clear of the rest. The step up in trip should suit her so I might be tempted to try and get my money back but there are plenty of unexposed runners here capable of improving past her. GHAZWAH, a well bred daughter of Shamardal, was 4th in that race and probably needs this step up in trip as she didn’t seem to get home although Richard Hills didn’t really get serious once her chance had gone. CANDLESHOE looked a filly for the future when a staying on 4th on her debut at Windsor last week. However, her rider that day Richard Hughes has plumped for the other Hannon runner PALEO who was well beaten on her debut at Newbury. She showed some decent speed early on before tiring in the closing stages although the soft ground may well have had something to do with that. LAURELDEAN SPIRIT, a half sister to the classy Nahoodh, couldn’t have made a more pleasing debut at York three weeks ago. Having raced prominently throughout, she looked all out the winner inside the final furlong before tiring late on and just being caught by Godolphin’s Emirates Dream. That will certainly have sharpened her up and with her already proven over the trip, she should have a hand in the finish. Mark Johnston had a juvenile winner on day one, so SAAFIA isn’t easily overlooked even though Richard Hills has picked the Gosden runner. She was a bit green on her debut at Doncaster over 7f but stuck on gamely even though she didn’t get the clearest of runs. As with any Johnston juvenile she is capable of any amount of improvement from run to run, so she could go well at a decent price. As always the betting will prove the best guide to the unraced fillies although NOM DE LA ROSA catches my eye on breeding. Her half-brother, Golden Arrow, won a listed contest on his juvenile debut in Ireland and went on to prove himself a decent animal finishing runner-up to George Washington in the National Stakes. PINK SYMPHONY is another, being closely related to the classy Fantasia and any support for the pair could prove significant.

SHORTLIST

LAURELDEAN SPIRIT
WATER BISCUIT
SAAFIA
PALEO

5.45 Goodwood – Charlton Stakes

Dandy Nicholls has won this race five times in the last ten years, although four of those came with the Goodwood specialist Zuhair. However, working out which one of his four runners to follow is a job in itself although it is difficult not to be impressed by MANDURAH. After a brace of victories at Haydock and Ascot, he ran a cracker off his revised rating at Ascot on Sunday. He may have only finished 9th but he was only 3L behind the eventual winner Judge ‘n Jury despite being drawn unfavourably low. He gets in off the same mark tomorrow and has an ideal draw in box 1, giving him a rail to race against. INDIAN TRAIL was 5th in that race at Ascot on Sunday suggesting that the handicapper doesn’t have his measure just yet. He is drawn next to his stable mate in stall two, so Dandy will be hoping that is the side to be. NORTHERN FLING has been out of form in recent months but there is no doubt he is well handicapped if bouncing back. His final runner NORTHERN BOLT isn’t the easiest horse to catch right and to be honest looks high enough in the weights at the moment. Another northern based trainer, Richard Fahey, won this race last year with TOTAL IMPACT who gets in tomorrow off a 2lbs higher mark. He won from stall 9 last year and races from stall 10 tomorrow, so everything is set for a repeat performance. Fahey is also represented by STEELCUT but he looks a shade high in the weights at present. The North has another solid contender in the shape of LE TOREADOR who arrives here on a hat-trick. He is a fine stamp of a horse, a sprinter through and through, and although he is up another 2lbs tomorrow I would be surprised if it stopped him running his race. Andrew Balding won this race in 2006 with the classy Holbeck Ghyll and although LITTLE PETE may not be up to that level, it is easy to make a case for him after he chased home Canadian Danehill at Newmarket of the same mark as tomorrow. He wore a first time visor that day but it has been left off tomorrow, so connections must feel that it didn’t help his chances. Gary Moore won’t have to travel far tomorrow but he looks to hold every chance with ROCKER. This time last week his participation would have been in doubt off just 74, so Gary Moore took no chances and run him at Epsom on Thursday to try and get a penalty to ensure his place in the line up. The plan worked to a tee as he ran out a convincing winner. Ryan Moore gets on very well with this horse, winning on him for three of his six victories, and I also think the horse is ideally suited to a downhill finish having previously won at Brighton and Epsom. Goodwood being a similar track is most likely all part of the master plan. That will do for the shortlist but there are one or two I am reluctant to leave out. BLUE JACK isn’t dismissed lightly even off his current mark whilst DAZED AND AMAZED is weighted to run a big race.

SHORTLIST

ROCKER
LE TOREADOR
TOTAL IMPACT
LITTLE PETE

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