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Saturday 1st August
 
1.55 Goodwood – Bluesquarepoker.com Stakes
This is a tricky looking opener where a case could be made for most of the runners. BECAUSEWECAN remains unexposed over this sort of trip and looks on a winnable mark based on his staying on third over a furlong further on Wednesday. Neil Callan takes over from Royston Ffrench so it will be interesting to see if he can get more out of the horse. EASTERN ARIA is his second runner and if we ignore her disappointing effort at Newmarket when too much was made of her too early because of a poor draw, she looks to have a reasonable claim although the same can’t be said of GUESTOFTHENATION who has been badly out of form so far this year. Prior to that only once had she failed to finish in the first three, so I would be surprised if backers didn’t get a run for their money. ZARINSKI ran a sound race in the King George V Handicap at the Royal Meeting and has since moved from John Oxx to Jim Best. A change of scenery can often bring about a change of fortune and it could be dangerous to write him off. THIN RED LINE just failed to defy a 6lbs rise in the weights at Haydock last time and although he is up another 3lbs tomorrow I am not sure he has finished improving yet over this sort of trip. JEDI is another horse that is unexposed but has run two nice races in defeat this year and with winning form when there is some cut in the ground, has to be considered here. LADY LUACHMHAR didn’t see a racecourse until April but after a modest debut she has won her last two. I was especially impressed with her at Haydock last time as she was conceding weight all round but still won in the fashion of a progressive horse. I think this slight step up is a sensible move and with her sure to handle the conditions, she is one for anyone’s shortlist. A similar comment applies to ITLAAQ who won impressively over a mile and quarter here in May. I think he is probably a better horse the further he goes although it will be interesting to see how he contends with an 8lbs hike up the weights. SHAKALAKA is still a maiden despite six attempts and judged on his two recent efforts it is easy to see why. He cruised into contention at Lingfield last time but found very little when asked to pickup and that is always a warning sign to me.

SHORTLIST

BECAUSEWECAN
LADY LUACHMHAR
ITLAAQ
ZARINSKI

2.30 Goodwood – Blue Square Premier Stakes
Last season’s Timeform Million and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner DONATIVIUM took a while to get going this season but finally got back to winning ways at Deauville earlier this month. I can forgive his first two starts this season as 7f was always going to be on the side and he improved for the step up to a mile when winning a listed contest earlier this month, despite the fact that he wasn’t suited to the soft conditions. Back on a sounder surface, there should be more to come although he does look vulnerable to an unexposed animal. OCEAN’S MINSTREL is already a dual listed winner and although he was well beaten in the Jersey he ran well behind Regal Parade at Chester last time and that horse franked the form when 3rd here in the Betfair Cup on Tuesday. However, whether that is good enough form to win this, I am not so sure. HARTLEY finished in front of him at Chester in receipt of 3lbs and looks a nice horse for the future although he will also have to improve to get involved. The way Richard Hannon’s horses are running at the moment I wouldn’t be surprised to see PURE POETRY run a big race. He earned his black type in the Easter Stakes in April before running a sound race in the Craven. He was then just over 6L behind Sea the Stars in the Guineas before proving his ability to act around Goodwood when runner-up in the On The House Stakes. The St James’s Palace Stakes was probably a step too far although again he was only beaten by 6L and I think it is difficult to dismiss him here. The fact that ASHRAM has gone from first string to apparent second string isn’t ideal news for supporters. I though he ran okay in the Jersey in a first time visor but I don’t think it had the same effect when he was beaten at Newbury last time, although the soft ground probably didn’t help. Either way, he didn’t look too keen at Newbury so he is not for me. BRIEF ENCOUNTER is progressing nicely up the handicap ranks but although he won well at Newmarket last time, I think he has a fair bit to find in this line up. FOUR WINDS won well over a mile at Newmarket in May but tired out of it in the Hampton Court Stakes giving me the impression that he doesn’t quite get 10f. Back over a mile he is entitled to take his place in the line up. GALLAGHER, runner up in last year’s Richmond, is interesting now that he steps up to a mile for the first time. He was very competitive in Pattern company last year and I thought he ran a nice race in the Jersey given that it was his first start since October and that he was tackling 7f for the first time. That proved the case as he won convincingly on his next start at Newbury from a decent line up and I think he could prove a major player in this. Finally, there is ZACINTO. Completely unexposed, after just two runs as a juvenile, he was only narrowly beaten by Westphalia on his second start in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes at Doncaster but he has been off the track since then. We will have to take his fitness on trust but Stoute certainly knows how to ready one first time out.

SHORTLIST

PURE POETRY
GALLAGHER

3.05 Goodwood – Blue Square Nassau Stakes
There have been some real superstars win this Group 1 contest in the last decade so the ten runners tomorrow have a lot to live up to. Sir Michael Stoute won this race three times between 2002 and 2004 so I wouldn’t rule out a victory for HEAVEN SENT. After winning a modest Dahlia Stakes in May she went down fighting to SPACIOUS in the Windsor Forest Stakes at the Royal Meeting. She reversed the form with the Fanshawe runner in the Falmouth, but run into a very good filly in the shape of Goldikova. The handicapper and I agree that there is virtually nothing between the two Cheveley Park horses and both warrant the utmost respect here. BARSHIBA has won her last two starts in fine fashion but I think she comes up a little short in Group 1 company although in with her in this vein of form, she could prove me wrong and improve again. KATIYRA ran solid races in both the English and Irish Oaks last season but I don’t think she really got the mile and a half. She looked much more effective when dropped in trip and class winning her next two starts. She has only had one outing this season when 5th in the Pretty Polly at the Curragh, but she ran well to finish 3 1/2L behind the winner after such a long layoff. She is clearly a better filly with some cut in the ground, so if the heavens open the money could come for her. SAPHIRA’S FIRE looks to have a bit to find on what she has shown so far and looks held judged n her run behind BARSHIBA in the Lancashire Oaks. Three-year-olds have won seven of the last ten renewals so they need close scrutiny. HIGH HEELED ran a cracker to finish third to Sariska in the Oaks but I thought she was slightly disappointing in the Lancashire Oaks. She bounced back with victory in a 10f listed contest last time but this is a whole different ball game. MIDDAY was my Oaks fancy but she was no match for Sariska at Epsom or the Curragh. She is the top-rated filly in the line up tomorrow so is clearly no mug and looks to hold every chance. I really like MONEYCANTBUYMELOVE but despite that and the fact that she has won her last two starts, she will need to improve by about 10lbs to trouble the principals and a similar comment would apply to NASHMIAH who tackles this sort of trip for the first time. Personally, I hope she wins tomorrow just so I can watch Clive Brittain doing his jig in the paddock. RAINBOW VIEW, RAINBOW VIEW, RAINBOW VIEW……..the best thing since sliced bread at the end of her juvenile campaign but very disappointing on her four starts this season. She never got into it in the Guineas or the Oaks or the Coronation Stakes BUT there was a glimmer of hope in the Falmouth when she was only beaten just over a length behind Goldikova. She is yet to tackle tomorrow’s trip and it could turn out to prove ideal and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see her snatch this.

SHORTLIST

HEAVEN SENT
MIDDAY

3.40 Goodwood – Bluesquare.com Stewards’ Cup
If you were to adhere strictly to all of the trends you would end up with a sort list with nothing on it, as all of the runners have a failing in one area or another and that clearly isn’t acceptable in one of the major betting heats of the summer. Therefore a fair degree of common sense is needed.

First, let’s have a look at the trend surrounding age as this has a rather reliable look to it. Four and five-year-olds have been a dominant force in the Stewards’ Cup, winning nine of the last ten renewals, with only the 2000 winner Tayseer interrupting the flow. Therefore, we can use that trend to swiftly chop down the 28 runners to a more respectable level so KNOT IN WOOD, TAMAGIN, JUDD STREET, BUACHAILL DONA, BEAVER PATROL, MARKAB, GLOBAL CITY, BARNEY MCGREW, ADVANCED, BINIOU, KOSTAR, ENDERBY SPIRIT, PEARLY WEY, ORPSIE BOY and OSIRIS WAY all have to make way.

When it comes to official ratings there isn’t a lot to be learned as only 13lbs cover the entire field this year so let’s look at recent form. Eight of the last twelve winners had achieved a top three finish on their most recent start but I feel that it could be dangerous to wholly rely on this trend alone as the last two winners had failed in this area. Therefore, rather than look at the negatives I am going to concentrate on those horses that meet the positive trends. Roger Charlton probably has the best record in this race, winning it twice from just four runners so that is a big feather in the cap for GENKI. Unsurprisingly, Dandy Nicholls is next best as he has also won this race twice in the last decade albeit from a staggering 41 runners. His runners that remain after the age cut are VALERY BORZOV, SONNY RED, EVENS AND ODDS, FOL HOLLOW and STRIKING SPIRIT. Richard Fahey is the only other trainer still in the hunt having saddled two recent placed runners so FISHFORCOMPLEMENTS earns the final positive.

When it comes to key races the Wokingham is the best trial having supplied six of the last ten winners. Therefore of those remaining STRIKING SPIRIT (7th), JIMMY STYLES (12th), BRAVE PROSPECTOR (14th), EVENS AND ODDS (22nd) and GENKI (26th) earn a tick in the right box. The next trial worth considering is York’s lesser known Sportingbet.com Stakes which has supplied five of the last eleven winners. VALERY BORZOV landed the spoils back in May and he is the only representative from that race.

The draw usually has a massive significance in a race like this. The trends are suggesting that it is those drawn in stall 19 or higher that usually hold the upper hand although I am not so sure that will apply this year as I haven’t seen much of a bias so far this week. Apart from last year’s faux par the trend surrounding the betting suggests that it is the first five in the betting that tend to get the upper hand. In races like this the betting is sure to flip-flop between now and the time of the off but at the time of writing the market principals look to be MARKAB, PROHIBIT, GENKI, ENDERBY SPIRIT, JIMMY STYLES, KNOT IN WOOD, MAC GILLE EOIN, BARNEY MCGREW and BINIOU.

SHORTLIST

MAC GILLE EOIN
JIMMY STYLES
STRIKING SPIRIT
GENKI
SONNY RED

CONCLUSION

Even with the help of the trends, this remains a wickedly tough race to unravel but it might be worth taking a chance on MAC GILLE EOIN who sits fairly well with most of them. Age, recent form, rating and betting are all met with his only failings being his draw and trainers form in the race. However, I wouldn’t say he is too badly drawn in stall 14 on what I have seen so far this week and that just happens to be the stall which last year’s winner came from. There is no doubt that this son of Bertolini is more than at home in races such as this and he is a real 6f specialist, recording all seven of his victories over the trip, two of which came at Goodwood. The ground shouldn’t pose a problem but I wouldn’t want to see it get much softer as he is yet to win on anything worse than good ground.

I backed JIMMY STYLES in the Wokingham believing him to be ideally drawn but the far side proved the place to be and he could only finish 12th. He was also unlucky at Windsor last time as he hardly got the clearest of passages and I think he is worth another chance tomorrow. He meets with most of the trends with his only failing being his 5th place finish last time but I have already explained the reason for that. He is one of the least exposed runners in the line up and even though he is on a lifetime high mark I don’t think the handicapper has him yet. My only slight concern is the fact that he wouldn’t want to see too much rain as three of his four wins have come on good to firm ground.

STRIKING SPIRIT accounted for Clive Cox’s runner at Ascot in May but the form was reversed at Newmarket next time. He then ran respectably at Epsom on Derby Day and in the Wokingham before winning again at York. The handicapper responded with a 7lbs hike but he was well beaten again at York last Saturday and the handicapper has put him back down. He is another that fits well with most of the trends and he could be dangerous to dismiss from stall 27 with a feather weight.

GENKI sits nicely with most of the trends and could have been on the top of the shortlist had he gone one pace better at Ascot last Saturday. He hasn’t won since 2007 but has looked to be going the right way recently after disappointing in the Wokingham. Six furlongs looks his ideal trip and he won’t be too inconvenienced if the heavens open as he has run well on good to soft ground in the past.

I was going to leave SONNY RED off the shortlist as he is much more of a 5f horse. But he is strong from a trends point of view and couldn’t be arriving here in better form after his hard fought victory at Ascot earlier this month. Although 6f may not be his ideal trip he looks sure to handle the softer conditions if the heavens open and would appear to be Dandy’s number one based on jockey bookings.

4.15 Goodwood – Blue Square EBF Maiden Stakes
After the furore of the Stewards’ Cup, this might prove a good time to take a well earned drink as this looks very tough. One thing I can tell you is that there has only been one winning favourite in the last decade and the last three winners were sent off at 25/1, 33/1 and 14/1. Richard Hannon has won it three times so the first time out INVINCIBLE SOUL warrants respect, especially as he was a 160,000 euro purchase and is related to some classy sorts. STAGS LEAP is his other runner but he was beaten on his debut at Sandown and would need to improve a fair bit in this line up. YARRA RIVER probably sets the standard after finishing placed on both his starts although he looks vulnerable to me. TEXAN STAR represents the 2004 winning trainer John Gosden and ran a cracker to chase home an odds-on favourite on his debut at Newbury. That came on soft ground so if the rain comes he should not be too inconvenienced. POOR PRINCE also made a pleasing debut when runner up at Sandown earlier this month and he is entitled to go one better tomorrow. Barry Hills has three in the line up but FANCY STAR looked pretty ordinary on his debut. BIN SHAMARDAL is unraced but has a nice looking pedigree so market support would be interesting. Mark Johnston won this race last year with the classy Jukebox Jury so any interest in LOVE DELTA would also be interesting. This 100,000 guineas purchase has very much an American pedigree so I would assume that he wouldn’t want it too soft.

SHORTLIST

TEXAN STAR
POOR PRINCE

4.50 Goodwood – Bluesquare.com Nursery
Dandy Nicholls has won the last three renewals of this race so LAYLA’S HERO and BLUIE need close scrutiny. It’s the former that makes the most appeal as he caught my eye on his debut at Thirsk before justifying the drop in trip at Hamilton last time when he stayed on much too strongly for his six rivals. The step back up to 6f should suit and he looks the stable number one on jockey bookings. BLUIE is a bit more exposed having already had four starts but he made all to get off the mark at Haydock last time, although it was only in selling company. Richard Hannon has won this race twice and DUBAI SET looks the pick even though he is still a maiden and staring to look exposed. PALISADES PARK won well at Windsor in June but was disappointing at Chepstow next time and didn’t look anything special when 8th in the Super Sprint. AVONROSE looked a nice filly when winning at Redcar but she hasn’t really progressed as expected and doesn’t look up to the level of her half-sister Lovelace. ANTONIUS MORIS opened his account in good style in May and apart from a modest effort in the Windsor Forest has run consistently well. The thing that interests me is that he handled the heavy ground at Nottingham last time with the minimum of fuss, so he will be sure to handle the testing conditions if they deteriorate further. FLORIO VINCITORE was well beaten in the Chesham but bounced back with a win in a modest Lingfield affair. He followed that with another reasonable effort again on the all weather so it will be interesting to how he handles the switch to turf. BALLODAIR looked progressive when winning at Thirsk but run into a decent rival at Hamilton last time. However, he stuck to the task quite well and had his rivals well beaten behind him, so he is worth his chance in this line up. SLICE improved on his debut to win at Chepstow last time but whilst he did nothing wrong, I wouldn’t have said it was the strongest of maidens. RUNNING MATE finally got off the mark at the fourth time of asking after finishing down the field in the Norfolk. The return to 6f was ideal for this good looking son of Acclamation and with him confirmed with some juice in the ground, it will be dangerous to leave him out of equations. LELEYF has been highly tried but looks exposed compared to most of these whilst the form of COOLREE STAR doesn’t look good enough. PINTURA and THE SHUFFLER are both maidens and haven’t done enough on the track yet to suggest that they will be a force in this.

SHORTLIST

ANTONIUS MORIS
RUNNING MATE
LAYLA’S HERO

5.25 Goodwood – Bluesquarecasino.com Apprentice Stakes
There are some good young apprentices on show here and it doesn’t look a bad race. David Probert rode the winner of this race last year, so let’s have a look at his mount first. DINGAAN had proved an expensive horse to follow as he had failed to grace the Winners’ Enclosure since June 2007. He finally put that monkey to bed when getting his head in front at Bath a fortnight ago, when stepped up to a mile. However, he is a bit of a thinker and I am not sure he is capable of a repeat performance, especially of a 4lbs higher mark. Dandy Nicholls won this race in 2006 so BENCOOLEN warrants attention even though he is apparently out of form. I say that because he has been well beaten on his last three starts including when last of 18 here on Tuesday. MOUNTAIN PRIDE posted a better effort at Ascot last Friday but would appear to be a few pounds too high in the weights at the moment. SHAVANSKY looks to need a trip as he has never won over less than 10f but I wouldn’t be so quick to right off CAPE HAWK. He is ideally suited to a mile when there is some cut in the ground and he is starting to look well handicapped off his current mark of 83. I think we can ignore the last run of MOHATHAB when something clearly went wrong as this is his first appearance since then. He gradually improved last year and opened his account at the first time of asking at Lingfield in April. As long as he has suffered no effects of that Newmarket run, I wouldn’t rule out a bold effort. MOUNT HADLEY looks held off his current mark after disappointing here on Tuesday. VISIONS OF JOHANNA is slowly dropping down the weights but both of his recent efforts have come over further than this. STRAVELLA ran well over 10f at Leicester last time but will probably appreciate the drop back in trip which she won over at Chepstow in May, although she will have to up her game following a 4lbs rise up the weights. EFFIGY is a consistent animal and remains on a mark that should see him get competitive. The under rated Amy Scott won on him at Salisbury last September so will know the horse well and the fact that she is claiming 5lbs could make the difference. ROAD TO LOVE isn’t the same horse as when winning here in 2006 so has to be opposed, but surely he has a race in him somewhere as he continues to tumble down the weights. The ex-German KALEO will appreciate the ease in the ground but would appear to need further whilst ALAN DEVONSHIRE is badly out of form. THUDER GROGE isn’t ruled out as he won in similar conditions here last year although he may just need to drop a few pounds. Finally, Alan King has already had a winner at this year’s Festival so LATIN SCHOLAR isn’t easily overlooked even though he may find things happening to quickly for him over a mile.

SHORTLIST

CAPE HAWK
MOHATHAB
EFFIGY