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Wednesday 19th August

1.45 York – RSA And Motability Stakes (Handicap)

There have been a few shocks in this race in recent years, so it could be dangerous to ignore the so called no-hopers. STATEGIC MOUNT is a classy stayer on his day but he has been badly out of form recently and it would require a giant leap of faith to see him winning here, especially as he looks a bit high in the weights. Tom Tate is a hugely under rated trainer and his South African import BUCKED OFF could prove something of a dark horse. He hasn’t raced since finishing 3rd at Jebel Ali in March so might just need it but I still think he is interesting as he tackles a 12f for the first time. Henry Cecil won this race with the 50/1 shot Bagan in 2003, so MONTBRETIA isn’t dismissed lightly despite the fact that she has been struggling for form so far this season as her pedigree suggests that stamina is her clearly her forte. SEEKING THE BUCK has already won twice this season so isn’t totally dismissed but I think the handicapper might just have him now. YES MR PRESIDENT has plenty of stamina in reserve and showed that when only narrowly beaten in the Shergar Cup Stayers. Like many Johnston runners this fellow is quite happy dictating the pace and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him set a strong pace tomorrow in order to get his rivals in trouble early on. Joe Fanning has a good clock in his head and if he gets it right he could prove difficult to pass. However, his stable mate WHISPERING GALLERY looks capable of mounting a serious challenge after two impressive victories this term. Out of the classy Echoes In Eternity, he is closely related to some top class stayers. The handicapper has him on 99 after just three runs and I don’t think we have seen the best of him just yet. A lot was expected from BOZ this season but if anything he has gone backwards so he wouldn’t be for me until I see him back to his best. COIN OF THE REALM was an impressive winner from Drill Sergeant at Epsom on Derby Day but he hasn’t been seen out since. He obviously suffered a minor setback so he may just need the run here, especially as he is off a 5lbs higher mark. RESPLENDENT LIGHT could only finish 8th behind him at Epsom but he has progressed on his last two runs and remains on a healthy mark at the moment. 12f on quick ground are ideal and I can see him running a big race. SAHRATI doesn’t look the most straight forward to me but if everything falls right he is more than capable. PRESBYTERIAN NUN has been highly tried so should appreciate this drop in class, especially as she is down another 4lbs, but she will need to improve on what she has shown this year. CLASS IS CLASS is an unexposed sort and opened his account well enough at Yarmouth in May. Since then he ran a sound race behind the prolific Firebet at Newmarket in July so has to be respected as he steps up in trip. Richard Fahey is a man to follow at York but AMANDA CARTER looks up against it here even though she has dropped back to the same mark as when winning at Newcastle last season. DAZZLING LIGHT looks in the grip of the handicapper following her win at Musselburgh in May and the same could be said of TOPOLSKI who was disappointing at Goodwood.

SHORTLIST

WHISPERING GALLERY
YES MR PRESIDENT
RESPLENDENT LIGHT

2.15 York – Weatherbys Insurance Lonsdale Cup (Group 2)

When I first look at a race I usually look down the list of runners and put a line through those that I don’t fancy. However, when I initially looked at the list of runners here I put a line through all of them! Obviously one of them will be the winner so I have had to dig a little deeper. I have to admit I quietly fancied ASKAR TAU ahead of his reappearance at Goodwood last month. To say I was disappointed would be an understatement but I am not one to hold grudges. It was his first run since the Cesarewitch and his yard had been struggling with a virus, so he did have excuses. If that run proved to be one off and he strips fitter tomorrow, I can see him landing a blow although I am slightly worried by the fact that he supports a first time visor. DRILL SERGEANT was an impressive winner of the Duke Of Edinburgh in June but struggled off his revised rating on his next two starts in handicap company, although he did run much better last time behind Manyriverstocross at Goodwood. Back in Pattern company I think he will be much more effective and I don’t think there is much between the two. I like ENROLLER as he has been running consistently in top-class company. My only concern with him is the fact that he is a better horse on a softer surface and I am not totally convinced he gets two miles. There are no doubts over the stamina of ROYAL AND REGAL but if it remains fast ground I would be surprised to see him run as he has purposely been kept on a soft surface in the past. MACORVILLE hasn’t won since 2006 so can’t be serious betting proposition especially as he hasn’t looked the force of old this season. BADDAM has been a grand servant down the years but I think his better days are behind him now.

SHORTLIST

ASKAR TAU

2.50 York – Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes (Group 2)

I am really looking forward to watching this! Like most of the racing public MONSIEUR CHEVALIER has really caught my attention with some truly awesome displays. Colleagues around the office are looking for reasons to take him on, citing reasons such as he won’t stay or that favourites don’t have a particularly good record in the Gimcrack. Personally, I think they are barking up the wrong tree as in my opinion he will be even better over 6f. Hughesy really knows how to handle this horse after using the wrong tactics at Royal Ascot and I believe the step up in trip will allow him to get the horse settled better out the back before delivering his trade mark late spurt. SHOWCASING should prove a dangerous rival as he has missed a few entries now, so connections obviously think a bit of him. After a narrow defeat at Newbury on his debut he ran out a very convincing winner at Yarmouth last time and as he is already proven over 6f, I think he could be the one to prosper if I am wrong about MONSIEUR CHEVALIER. TAAJUB has a similar profile to the Gosden runner so certainly isn’t dismissed lightly especially if he builds on his cosy victory at Newmarket last month and a similar comment would also apply to MR DAVID who represents Brian Meehan, whose juveniles have been going well this term. I think the winner will come from one of these four so that means I have reservations about ORPEN GREY. I am finding it hard to put it into words, especially after he was runner up in the July Stakes last time but I think he may help set the race up for one of the big for.
The Alan Jarvis trained pair of CORPORAL MADDOX and REIGNER have done connections proud this season but both are beginning to look exposed now whilst FALASTEEN will have to improve on what he has shown so far if he is to trouble the principals.

SHORTLIST

MONSIEUR CHEVALIER

3.25 York – Totesport Ebor (Heritage Handicap)

With 20 runners set to go to post it is important to use some of the main trends to narrow the field down. For the purposes of this analysis I shall include the two reserves as there is a change they will get in between the time of writing and the start of the race. The first thing to do is get rid of all runners aged six or above as only Sergeant Cecil and Sea Pigeon have defied that stat in the last 26 years. Therefore, unless you believe MUNSEF, DANSILI DANCER, DEUTSCHLAND, MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR, DESERT SEA, SOM TALA or NANTON comes into that bracket their chances must be viewed with a degree of scepticism.

Another important trend to consider is the fact that seven of the last ten Ebor winners achieved a top four finish on their most recent start. With that in mind WALDVOGEL, SIBERIAN TIGER, RECORD BREAKER, AJAAN, CAMPS BAY, LADIES BEST, SESENTA and OVERRULE would appear to have something to prove. Those two trends alone have narrowed the field down to WARRINGAH, HITS ONLY VIC, RED MERLIN, THE BETCHWORTH KID, CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, MANYRIVERSTOCROSS and the reserve PRECISION BREAK so let’s allow the rest of the trends to work their magic.

When it comes to age, three-year-olds can be given a positive mention as on the whole they have a very good record in this race. Since 1986, horses of the Classic generation have won the Ebor nine times from relatively few starters, which is good news for supporters of CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD. Five-year-olds are next best having supplied four recent winners and eight placed efforts whilst the four-year-olds have the worst return of all three age groups with only two recent winners. However, it would be harsh to exclude them on that trend alone. Official ratings point to the horses rated 96 to 105, which is good news for most of the shortlisted horses. MANYRIVERSTOCROSS only misses out by a pound but should PRECISION BREAK get in, he would appear to have something to prove off just 91. Equally, the ratings are against CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD, who races off 107, as the last 16 runners in the race rated higher than 105 all tasted defeat.

The draw is surprisingly important in the Ebor and even more surprisingly the trends are suggesting that the place to be drawn in high. To be more precise seven of the last ten winners came from stall 14 or higher, so that is a boost to the chances of RED MERLIN (15) and MANYRIVERSTOCROSS (20) but perhaps not so good for WARRINGAH whose is drawn plum on the rail in stall 1. When it comes to trainers’ form in the race Luca Cumani really is the man to follow with a record of three wins and two places from eight runners in the last decade. WALDVOGEL has already been removed from the shortlist but it does make you wonder? Of those remaining on the shortlist WARRINGAH earns another minor negative as although Sir Michael Stoute won this race twice in the early 90s, his recent record hasn’t been so great with only one of his seven runners finishing in the frame. With an even worse record, Paul Cole only has one place to boast from his last 11 runners so if PRECISION BREAK goes get a run the odds looked staked against him. I wouldn’t say that there was really a key trial for the Ebor although the Summer Stakes at Glorious Goodwood has supplied a couple of recent winners. That is great news for this year’s winner MANYRIVERSTOCROSS who won narrowly from PRECISION BREAK with CAMPS BAY 8th and WALDVOGEL 14th. The Northumberland Plate has also supplied a brace of recent winners, so SOM TALA warrants a second glance although he does have a massive negative age stat to overcome. AJAAN was sent off favourite for that race but could only finish a modest 7th, with HITS ONLY VIC 8th, THE BETCHWORTH KID 9th and RECORD BREAKER 15th. The final trend to consider is that surrounding the betting. Favourites don’t have the greatest of records in the Ebor despite Purple Moon’s victory in 2007. At the time of writing CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD fills the dreaded place as favourite.

SHORTLIST

RED MERLIN
MANYRIVERSTOCROSS
HITS ONLY VIC
THE BETCHWORTH KID

CONCLUSION

I am going to take the bull by the horns and leave CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD off the final shortlist. It could be dangerous as he is from an age group that warrants respect, especially as Aidan O’Brien has won this race in the past with a horse of the same age and the fact that he was a last time out winner. However, his draw in stall 7, his official rating of 107 and the fact that he is currently favourite for the race are three negatives that he has to overcome and enough to make me look elsewhere.

RED MERLIN makes plenty of appeal as he hits most of the trends head on. A winner last time out, apparently drawn well in stall 15, officially rated in the ideal band and due to be sent off towards the head of the betting suggests he has a strong chance. Clive Cox has had a fantastic season so far and RED MERLIN has been one of his stable stars. After a couple of placed efforts in April, he impressed when winning at Chester in May before really upping his game to land a competitive handicap at Goodwood. His crowning glory came last month when he achieved his hat-trick in the hugely competitive Old Newton Cup at Haydock. This is his first attempt at 1m6f but from his style of racing I don’t believe he will have a problem getting the trip. He acts on any ground and if he is able to extend his winning run, expect to see him stepped up into pattern or Listed class next time.

MANYRIVERSTOCROSS is another that looks strong from a trends point of view. Well drawn, a winner last time out in a race which has been a reasonable pointer to the Ebor winner in the past and handily placed in the betting suggests he goes into the race with a serious chance. He wasn’t beaten far when 3rd behind RED MERLIN at Goodwood in May but re-opposes on much better terms here so a reversal of that form is not totally out of the question. A modest effort in a ladies race at York followed that but he upped his game when running a cracker when 2nd at Newmarket on July Cup day. He earned his reward with a game success at Glorious Goodwood last time and on that evidence a 4lb penalty may not be enough to anchor him.

HITS ONLY VIC was a game winner over WARRINGAH at York last time in the Silver Cup so with course and distance form in the bag he warrants particular attention. It’s hard to believe that at the lowest point of his career he was only rated 44! Since then he has won 7 times and over £70K, seeing his official mark now on a lofty 101. He scores well from a trends point of view and although his stall 10 draw wouldn’t appear to ideal, I don’t think he will have a problem getting some early cover. His current price of 16/1 gives him the look of decent each-way bet.

Stamina won’t be an issue for THE BETCHWORTH KID who confirmed his liking for a true test when running well in the Goodwood Cup. The trends suggest that he is not without chances and at 20/1 he looks another with solid each-way chances.

4.05 York – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed)

This looks quite an open race despite the fact that MISTER MANANNAN heads the weights after chasing home MONSIEUR CHEVALIER at Goodwood last time. A repeat performance would see him go close but I think the value may lie elsewhere, especially as Dandy has described this horse as backwards and weak in the past. ARCHERS ROAD was 3rd and STAR ROVER 4th in that race but I don’t see why they should reverse the form. Ger Lyons’ juveniles have been in sparkling fashion this season so I wouldn’t be put off by the fact that LOVE LOCKDOWN is conceding weight because of his listed win in Ireland. However, he was very disappointing in the Railway Stakes last time and may now be feeling the effects of a busy season so on that basis I shall leave him alone. FARMER GILES looks to have plenty to find at the weights, especially after a modest effort last time. I am loathed to ignore NOSEDIVE as he has run some solid races at a better level than this already this term but I am going to take a chance that SINGEUR can keep on improving after winning four of his first five starts. Watching him, I don’t get the impression that he has been asked a serious question yet and with him set to relish the firm conditions I can see him putting his 7 rivals to the sword here.

SHORTLIST

SINGEUR

4.40 York – Win A Trip To Saratoga Races EBF Fillies’ Stakes (Handicap)

HAMWARI LODGE has cost me a couple of times this season so you can bet your bottom dollar that the time I leave her alone, she will bolt up. The step up to a mile shouldn’t pose a problem and I think she will be better suited to the faster conditions, so I wouldn’t want to put you off. SERADIM has been highly tired this season but has come up short most of the time. I don’t think the mile will be a problem but the good to form ground will. SILVER GAMES hasn’t done a lot wrong this season and is worth her place in the line up. Ryan Moore looks an interesting jockey booking so I wouldn’t be surprised to see her bounce back. VITORIA looked a progressive juvenile but was found wanting on her two starts in April. Brian Smart then gave her some time off and she ran a much better race at Newmarket last month chasing home Pyrrha but she didn’t look entirely straight forward so I will pass her over. BADIAT ALZAMAN has been found out in Pattern company on her last two starts and i think she is a tad high in the weights at present. CHARLOTTE POINT could be one to cut out the running and if she is given too easy a time of it she could be difficult to peg back but her running style will leave her vulnerable to a hold up performer. MO MHUIRNIN hasn’t got the best of the draw but I think she has been crying out for this step up to a mile and I hope Paul Hanagan will keep her covered up early on. That will allow her to do all of her best work late on and I can’t see her finishing out of the first three. The ground looks to be against HAPPY ANNIVERSARY but I also think she is high enough in the weights. There is a slight doubt over whether FULL OF LOVE will take part but as long as the ground remains quick I don’t see any reason to pull her out. If she does run I would give her a serious chance based on her efforts already this season and I don’t think we have seen the best of her just yet. BURGUNDY ICE reportedly had a breathing problem at the end of last season and I wonder if that was the reason for her down fall at Sandown last time as she looked all out the winner two furlongs out. With that question mark hanging over her I have to oppose her but she is clearly a talented filly capable of winning this if my assumptions are wrong. PAQUERATTZA looks in the grip of the handicapper at the moment judged on her effort at Newmarket last Saturday. HARRIET’S GIRL is running from 2lbs out of the handicap and has form to find with a few of her rivals whilst FLAPPER would appear to have plenty to find from 5lbs out of the handicap even though she arrives here on a hat trick. She won her last two races with a degree of ease but the handicapper has responded with a 10lbs hike, which should make life much tougher.

SHORTLIST

MO MHUIRNIN
FULL OF LOVE
SILVER GAMES

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