bettrends.co.uk

Friday 21st August

1.45 York – Sky Bet Melrose Stakes (Heritage Handicap)

There isn’t a lot to be gleaned from the trends surrounding the Melrose Stakes and the only real positive I can find is that John Dunlop has won the race twice in the last decade. So his runner AKMAL is as good a starting point as any. Twice a winner earlier in the season he narrowly lost out to CLASSIC VINTAGE at Salisbury in June before getting back to winning ways over course and distance the following month. He found CLASSIC VINTAGE too good once again at Goodwood on his most recent start although he was re-opposing on 2lbs worse terms. The tables are turned tomorrow as the Perrett runner has to concede 7lbs so I wouldn’t be surprised to see Dunlop’s runner reverse the form with that rival. COSMIC SUN finished 4th in that race and as he is only 1lb higher tomorrow looks capable of getting amongst it once again. My only slight concern is the fact that Richard Fahey’s horses are a bit in and out at the moment. It would be easy to assume that ALANBROOKE is in the grip of the handicapper following two recent modest efforts but I think it would be dangerous to write him off as he steps back up in trip. BRAVEHEART MOVE looks to have a big chance under a 6lbs penalty following his success at Pontefract at on Sunday. He was very disappointing in the Goodwood race but proved that running to be wrong at Pontefract and Prescott has made a bold move booking Ryan Moore to ride. STANSTILL has made a name for himself winning his last three starts. The step up to this sort of trip has worked wonders but as he only wins by the narrowest of margins the handicapper hasn’t been able to clobber him so he still looks competitive off a mark of 90. FINAL VICTORY was held by him at Haydock last time and although he re-opposes on 3lbs better terms tomorrow I don’t think he will reverse the form. PENANG PRINCESS arrives here on a hat-trick after a cosy victory over two miles at Kempton in June. The drop back in trip shouldn’t pose a problem but she does have a 7lbs higher mark to contend with. ALCALDE looks a typically unexposed Johnston runner. Yet to tackle this sort of trip, unproven on fast ground and in first time blinkers he would require a leap of faith to back him but I certainly wouldn’t want to lay him. BERNIE THE BOLT was behind ALANBROOKE at Ascot in July but bounced back last time at Lingfield when the drop down to 14f appeared to suit. GIBB RIVER was just under three lengths behind him but the pair are weighted to finish much closer together tomorrow. However, I believe both will have to improve to figure here. James Given won this race in 2006 so ROYAL TROOPER could prove a dark horse from down the bottom of the weights. He is as yet untried at this trip but he didn’t look to be stopping when winning at Thirsk last month and could be open to a little improvement for the step up.

SHORTLIST

BRAVEHEART MOVE
STANSTILL
AKMAL

2.15 York – Sky Bet Strensall Stakes (Group 3)

Saeed Bin Suroor has won this race three times in the last five years but all three of those wins came with older horses, so I am undecided if SPRING OF FAME benefits or not? He was well beaten behind GLASS HARMONIUM in the Hampton Court Stakes as he looked a doubtful stayer over the 10f. He bounced back at Newmarket next time when dropped back to a mile and was very impressive when following up in a listed contest at Deauville. This represents a further step up in class so it will be interesting to see how he contends with that. His Royal Ascot conqueror GLASS HARMONIUM hasn’t been out since so it will be interesting to see if he as effective over this shorter trip as the last time he tacked it, he was firmly put in his place behind Delegator in the Craven Stakes. The final three-year-old in the line up PALAVICINI was held by him in the Hampton Court but I don’t think the trip was his downfall, more a fact that he wasn’t quite good enough. RUSSIAN SAGE is the top rated horse in the race and was an impressive 9f Group 2 winner at Nad Al Sheba in March. He didn’t stay in the Sheema Classic, so we can ignore that run and I think he should prove a popular choice amongst punters tomorrow. The fact that Ryan Moore has deserted PERFECT STRIDE doesn’t inspire too much confidence but Jimmy Fortune isn’t a bad stand in. He hadn’t looked all that straight forward ahead of his win in the Wolferton Handicap so I am not totally convinced by him. LORD ADMIRAL won twice over 9f in Dubai last year but he failed to land a blow since despite the fact he has continued to run well. He isn’t the easiest horse to catch right but on a going day he is more than capable of landing this. FORGOTTEN VOICE doesn’t have many miles on the clock but pushed DREAM LODGE close at Doncaster in July despite the good to soft ground not being ideal. He couldn’t live with Rip Van Winkle in the Sussex but didn’t run a bad race in 4th and this looks a lot easier. A big weight done for DREAM LODGE here on Tuesday, so I wouldn’t be put off by that and he looks to have a big chance over what should prove his ideal trip.

SHORTLIST

FORGOTTEN VOICE

2.50 York – Sky Bet City Of York Stakes (Listed)

Many of the runners here have questions to answer. ABBONDANZA looks a better horse on the all weather but there is no doubt that 7f suits and I wouldn’t rule out a bold effort if everything falls right. BALCARCE NOV was poor on his British debut but bounced back over a mile at Haydock next time despite his 66/1 starting price. He holds an entry for the Park Stakes later in the season so connections obviously think a bit of him but it remains to be seen if he can go on improving. BATTLE PAINT hasn’t really cut the mustard in Pattern company yet but didn’t do a lot wrong when chasing home the good benchmark Eisteddfod at Kempton in March. He hasn’t been seen since so fitness must be taken on trust and he looks up against it here. BECKERMET has never won over 7f and is winless since 2007 so would not carry my money. CONFRONT was well fancied ahead of his run at Salisbury but couldn’t repel the challenge of Mac Love. I got the impression that a return to 7f might be on the cards so I would give him every chance here. COURT MASTERPIECE hasn’t won since his heroic success in the 2006 Sussex Stakes so probably isn’t the force of old. However, I think he has run some decent races in defeat this season and I have him down as a dark horse in this line up. DREAM EATER always seems to flatter to deceive in my opinion. Supporters will get a run for their money but I think when push comes to shove he always comes up a little short. POINTING NORTH looks an interesting addition to Brian Smart’s string. The winner of his first four starts in South Africa, he disappointed on two starts on the sand in Dubai but I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see him go well here as he returns to the turf. TOMBI will be suited to 7f and isn’t easily discounted despite others appearing to have better claims. HUNTDOWN doesn’t have many miles on the clock but ran well in Group 1s last season and possibly needed the run on his reappearance at Newmarket in June. He holds some fancy entries for later in the season, so will need to win here if he is to take them up. I am not convinced by the form of ROYAL CONFIDENCE but I would give a chance to SECRET SOCIETY who has been very consistent in some of the season’s top handicaps and should be able to make the transition into listed class.

SHORTLIST

HUNTDOWN
POINTING NORTH

3.25 York – Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes (Group 1)

In the races 87 year history only one winner has been older than six so BENBAUN and TAX FREE look to have the odds stacked against them along with the 2006 winner REVERENCE and last year’s conquering hero BORDERLESCOTT. The six-year-olds have only a marginally better record, winning the race three times since 1980 and therefore the chances of DANDY MAN, MOORHOUSE LAD and MYTHICAL FLIGHT must be viewed with a fair degree of scepticism. When it comes to positives, there is very little to split the remaining age groups as they all have very similar records. Two-year-olds have had a fair bit of success in the race, so RADIOHEAD should not be discounted lightly.

Official ratings have also been a good pointer in recent years. Okay, Stravinsky. Nuclear Debate, Mozart and Kingsgate Native may not have been officially rated when they won here but I would have them all on at least 110 which fits in nicely with five of the remaining six winners. Therefore, CAPTAIN GERRARD looks to have a bit to prove off 105 along with the flying filly LOOK BUSY off 103, EXCELLERATOR off a lowly 98 and MYTHICAL BORDER off 104. EQUIANO, IALYSOS and RADIOHEAD also fail this 110 trend but only by a pound so they are left in for the moment.

Eight of the last ten Nunthorpe winners did so off the back of a top three finish last time, so of those remaining EQUIANO (8th – Audi Stakes), IALYSOS (13th – Audi Stakes), AMOUR PROPRE (10th – King’s Stand) and ART CONNOISSEUR (12th – July Cup) have a negative against their name. At this point KINGSGATE NATIVE and RADIOHEAD are still going strong and they both meet the trend suggesting that we favour horses which have already won this season, just like nine of the last ten winners. When it comes to the key races the King’s Stand is the strongest pointer but KINGSGATE NATIVE missed that race in favour of the Golden Jubilee where he could only finish 13th behind ART CONNOISEUR. The July Cup is next best having supplied four recent Nunthorpe winners, three of which had won at Newmarket but that race is only represented by two runners tomorrow, EQUIANO (8th) and ART CONNOISEUR (12th). Finally, with seven of the last ten winners coming from the first three in the betting, both look to be strong candidates with KINGSGATE NATIVE currently trading as the 9/4 favourite and RADIOHEAD next best at 5/1.

SHORTLIST

KINGSGATE NATIVE
RADIOHEAD
(AMOUR PROPRE)

CONCLUSION

The trends cannot split the pair and to be honest neither can I. Since winning this race as a two-year-old in 2007, KINGSGATE NATIVE put in some solid efforts at the highest level winning the Golden Jubilee into the process. He was then retired to stud but a la George Washington he was returned to training when things didn’t work out. He was extremely disappointing in his defence of the Golden Jubilee in June but in his defence it was his first start for the best part of a year. He proved that this was a one off with a convincing display at Goodwood in the Group 3 Audi Stakes when he looked as good as ever. Trip and ground look ideal for him tomorrow and in my opinion he deserves his place at the head of the betting.

I saw RADIOHEAD make his debut at Newmarket when despite attracting plenty of support, he looked as green as grass and could only finish 2nd. He improved on that with an authoritative display in a modest Bath maiden before really catching the eye when sweeping to victory in the competitive Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot. This is a whole different ball game but he performs very well against the trends and with two-year-olds having a decent record in the Nunthorpe, I wouldn’t be put off in the slightest.

I have decided to leave AMOUR PROPRE on the shortlist, albeit in brackets, as aside from the fact that he finished out with the washing on his latest start, he also performs well. Age, rating, a winner this season and to the forefront of the betting is boosted by the fact that he did contest the King’s Stand and is trained by Henry Candy who won this race in 2002 with the brilliant Kyllachy. Subscribers to the Summer Festivals Betting Guide Extended Service will know that I was very keen on him ahead of his Palace House victory, so I shall be having a bit on tomorrow as he owes me nothing. Ahead of that success I had heard that Henry Candy considered him as good as his 2002 winner given the right conditions. The key to this horse is a lightning fast surface and I believe that was his downfall at Ascot, where they had watered in an attempt to provide good ground. He is clearly better than that showing and with a course record going at the Knavesmire yesterday he should get his ground as long as there isn’t a significant deterioration of the going overnight.

4.05 York – Racing Post Yearling Bonus Convivial Maiden Stakes

I haven’t been convinced by the form shown of those that have already run although I think it is dangerous to write off NOBLE GREEK who was considered good enough to take his chance in the Group 2 July Stakes last time. Ultimately, he was well beaten but the experience should hold him in good stead. Tottenham fans will be supporting Harry Redknapp’s runner ARRY’S ORSE who is related to some speedy animals and cost £92k at the sales but being a long suffering Chelsea supporter I can’t bring myself to tip him. BUSINESSMAN looks much more like my cup of tea, representing my old boss. I haven’t heard too much about him but he is a well bred colt and should know his job first time up. DHERGHAAM doesn’t have the most eye-catching of pedigrees so the market may prove the best guide to his chances. HANSON ‘D on the other hand is a half brother to the top class Carry On Katie and if he has inherited any of her ability could be the one to beat. Finally, TEAPING is related to some speedy types so shouldn’t be totally written off despite less fashionable connections.

SHORTLIST

HANSON ‘D

4.40 York – Collingwood Team Service Knavesmire Stakes (Handicap)

And so we get to the final race of this year’s Festival and it doesn’t look an easy puzzle to solve. A case could be argued for most of the runners as many are arriving here in form. SWINGKEEL is a real two mile specialist and judged on his win at Kempton last month; I don’t think the handicapper has his measure just yet. I am not too bothered by his latest effort at it come in a real stamina test at Goodwood and I can see him getting involved here. I also think there is a lot to like about HAWK MOUNTAIN who wasn’t beaten far by MUDAWIN on his latest start and re-opposes on slightly better terms tomorrow. Of course, MUDAWIN won the 2006 Ebor at a mouth-watering 100/1 so clearly enjoys York but he never seems to run the same race twice so I wouldn’t be convinced that he could land this off a 3lbs higher mark. SAGA DE TERCEY is completely unexposed after just four starts, of which he has won three. He has only gone up 4lbs since stepped up in trip to win at Catterick and I believe there is still plenty more to come as he tackles two miles for the first time. The final one to catch my attention is the bottom weight DOWNING STREET. Although he is better known under NH Rules, he is gradually dropping back to a handy mark, loves fast ground and will certainly be staying on when others are crying enough. He is sure to be a big price but he could be tempting to small stakes each-way.

SHORTLIST

SAGA DE TERCEY
SWINGKEEL
HAWK MOUNTAIN
DOWNING STREET

ALL YOUR RACING AND SPORTS BOOKS AVAILABLE HERE