bettrends.co.uk

Saturday 5th September

1.55 Haydock

In a 17 runner sprint handicap such as this, there is always the chance that you will get a turn up but I can’t get away from BLUE JACK who has really impressed me this year. He keeps moving up the handicap but keeps finding more. He is up another 6lbs tomorrow but from the ease of his recent Sandown success I am not convinced it will be enough to stop him. He is very versatile in terms of the ground so the current ease in the ground isn’t a major concern and a stall 11 draw doesn’t look too bad with the stalls being positioned down the centre of the course. Dandy Nicholls has four in opposition and Fallon looks a very interesting booking for SONNY RED. He has been in decent form this season despite a glitch in the Stewards’ Cup. Personally, I think this horse needs the minimum trip on softish ground to be seen at his best. That is exactly what he gets tomorrow and being drawn next to BLUE JACK, I don’t think he will be far away. CAPTAIN DUNNE finished in front of him at York last time despite the fact that he too probably prefers more cut in the ground and he is another that looks to have plenty of things on his side.

SHORTLIST

BLUE JACK

CAPTAIN DUNNE

SONNY RED

2.10 Kempton – Totepool Sirenia Stakes

Regular readers will know that I have been a big fan of MONSIEUR CHEVALIER this season but I was bitterly disappointed with his effort in the Gimcrack last month. A few people have said that the 6f didn’t suit but personally I don’t think the extra furlong was a problem. To me it looked like the exploits of a busy season were starting to take their toll as the old sparkle didn’t seem to be there and Richard Hughes was getting busy a long way out. If he can bounce back I have no doubt that this is his for the taking. If I do decide to take him on, IVER BRIDGE LAD could well be the one to lower his colours even though he has been beaten by him twice. I like the fact that he is a course and distance winner and with no disrespect to Marc Halford, I am also buoyed by the fact that Michael Hills takes over tomorrow. STAR ROVER surprised a few when winning the Roses Stakes last time and he could be dangerous to discount if he handles this step up in trip.

SHORTLIST

IVER BRIDGE LAD

2.25 Haydock

RIO DE LA PLATA is a blast from the past but it is nice to see him back on the racecourse even though he will more than likely need to run and is far from sure to act on the ground. It is also a slight concern for CONFRONT who is the form horse coming into the race. He did win a juvenile event on good to soft in the past but when tried on it since he has usually struggled. If it starts to dry out at Haydock I would consider him but as it stands I am going to look elsewhere. CHARLIE FARNSBARNS hasn’t done a lot wrong this year and should act on the ground but I have this nagging doubt that he is ideally a better horse over further than a mile. The horse that interests me is ROCK AND ROLL KID who seems ideally suited to a mile on soft ground. I have seen a couple of his races and felt he was always given too much to do by being held up so far out the back. However, a change of tactics last time worked wonders as he ran out a comfortable winner at Galway last time and I believe there is more to come now that they have got to the bottom of him. BUSHMAN is another that catches my eye under these conditions and I can see him running a big race especially after he got back to winning ways at Newmarket last month.

SHORTLIST

ROCK AND ROLL KID

BUSHMAN

2.40 Leopardstown – Coolmore Fusaichi Pegasus Matron Stakes

I always keep an eye on the Matron Stakes as it has a place in my heart after my favourite horse of all time Attraction won it in 2005. This year’s renewal does look a slightly disappointing affair for a Group 1 as I don’t think there is a real superstar in the line up. It could prove a good opportunity for the disappointing RAINBOW VIEW to finally get one on the boards this season. Perhaps disappointing is an unfair description as in fairness she has run some sound races this season. After all the hype around her last season, we all expected better so perhaps I was holding her in too high esteem. She hasn’t been out of the top four on any of her last 4 starts in Group 1 company and she looked to have some of that old sparkle about her at Goodwood last time. However, with he ground looking to be very soft on Saturday it could tip the scales in favour of the Irish 1000 Guineas winner AGAIN. She excels in testing conditions and I have heard on the grapevine that she has been trained with this race in mind since being well beaten in the Coronation Stakes.

SHORTLIST

AGAIN

2.40 Kempton – Totesport.com September Stakes

This looks a cracker for a Group 3 but the one to interest me is ALL THE ACES. He really impressed me when winning the Fred Archer in June so I wasn’t surprised to see him push Doctor Freemantle next time in the Group 2 Princess Of Wales’s Stakes. Despite finishing only 5th, he was only 1 1/2L off the winner and I think he looks a major player as he drops down in grade, especially with he wily Philip Robinson in the saddle. KIRKLEES would be an obvious selection with two wins already on the board. However, his penalty suggests to me that he will find this tough going and a similar comment applies to CURTAIN CALL. There are two relative outsiders who it could be dangerous to discount, the first of which is the old timer KANDIDATE who knows the score around Kempton. The second is the ex-Ballydoyle inmate KING OF ROME. He has a bit to prove after being off since March but he clearly has plenty of ability.

SHORTLIST

ALL THE ACES

2.55 Haydock – Betfred.com Old Borough Cup

My old boss has had some success in this race with three-year-olds in the past so the fact that he runs ALANBROOKE speaks volumes to me. Barring a couple of modest efforts at Ascot this season, he has on the whole looked quite prolific and there was a lot to like about his latest effort in the Melrose Stakes at York last time. 1m6f looked to really suit but I am still undecided on what is his ideal ground. He has run well on soft in the past but was impressive at York last time. His fellow three-year-old KINGS DESTINY looks a big threat as long as he handles this step up in trip although from his running style I don’t see why he shouldn’t. Of the older horses, I am a fan of the top weight HITS ONLY VIC and I though he ran a belter to finish 3rd in the Ebor. He is a course and distance winner and has won three times on heavy ground so the varying weather shouldn’t cause him any concerns, although his big weight is a slight worry. I also like the look of PRECISION BREAK who clearly didn’t appreciate the fast ground in the Ebor. He is much more at home when able to get his toe in and if he can repeat his run when runner-up in the Summer Stakes, I have him down as a major threat.

SHORTLIST

ALANBROOK

PRECISION BREAK

KINGS DESTINY

3.10 Kempton

It’s probably fair to say that you could argue a case for all of the runners in the London Mile Handicap. MUSLEH looks an obvious candidate as he is still relatively unexposed and clearly possesses plenty of ability having won his last three starts. MULTAKKA has a similar profile despite the fact that he is a six-year-old. He too is a course and distance winner but like his younger rival neither have been done any favours by the draw. I am going to nail my colours to the mast of ASSAIL who was behind the Godolphin runner here last month but re-opposes on much better terms today. Hughie Morrison’s horses are going great guns at the moment and from stall 9 I can see him running a big race.

SHORTLIST

ASSAIL

MULTAKKA

3.30 Haydock – Betfred Sprint Cup (Group 1)

Some of the trends surrounding the Sprint Cup are a little wishy-washy so we do need to be a little flexible around some of them. There have been a variety of winning ages over the last decade so it would be very dangerous to rule in favour of any one particular age group. Having said that, when you look back over a longer period it is the four-year-olds that have a marginally better record, having won 11 of the last 21 renewals and that suggests that CORRYBROUGH, EQUIANO, HIGH STANDING, MAIN AIM and FLEETING SPIRIT could be ones to watch. Three-year-olds are next best having won six of the last 21, so they shouldn’t be written off on that stat alone.

Previous Group 1 winning form isn’t the be all and end all in the Sprint Cup as only four of the last ten winners had previously won at the highest level. However, previous Group 3 winning form is virtually a must as seven of the last ten winners had met that criteria. This is not a problem for the Group 1 winners EQUINAO, J J THE JET PLANE, ART CONNOISSEUR, FLEETING SPIRIT and BUSHRANGER nor the Group 2 winner FINJAAN or Group 3 winners AL QASI, HIGH STANDING and MAIN AIM, but it is a concern when it comes to the Listed winners ASSET, CORRYBROUGH, JUDD STREET and REGAL PARADE and the maiden winner SAYIF.

When it comes to recent form eight of the last ten winners had achieved a top three finish on their most recent start so that points in the direction of ASSET, HIGH STANDING, JUDD STREET, REGAL PARADE, FINJAAN and FLEETING SPIRIT. With regards to specific races there are six main ones to concentrate on. The Nunthorpe has provided four recent winners although all four had finished in the top four at York and the only representatives from this year’s race all finished down the field – EQUIANO was only 8th and ART CONNOISSEUR 15th so perhaps this race won’t be such a strong pointer this year? Haydock’s Temple Stakes has also provided four recent winners but isn’t represented this year so the next race to consider is the Golden Jubilee. Interestingly all three who triumphed here were beaten at Ascot so the winner ART CONNOISSEUR looks to have something to prove on that stat but it is slightly better news for J J THE JET PLANE who was 4th, REGAL PARADE who was 9th and BUSHRANGER who was 11th. The Prix Maurice de Gheest has supplied three recent winners but all three had achieved a top two finish at Deauville. However, only SAYIF (5th) and ASSET (9th) represent the French form. The Duke of York Stakes supplied a couple of recent winners but again a top two finish is important. EQUIANO is the only representative this year and his modest 11th place finish doesn’t look good enough. Finally on this subject, the July Cup has supplied two recent winners and both achieved a top three finish at Newmarket. Therefore, FLEETING SPIRIT fits in nicely here having won at the July Course from MAIN AIM (2nd), J J THE JET PLANE (3rd), EQUIANO (8th) and ART CONNOISEUR (12th).

When it comes to trainers’ form in the Sprint Cup Saeed Bin Suroor possibly has the best record although it is some time since his last success. Barry Hills has won this race twice in recent history so it could be dangerous to discount EQUIANO even though he is weak in other areas. On a negative front, Richard Hannon has only seen one of his seven recent runners finish in the frame, not good news for J J THE JET PLANE fans, whilst Dandy Nicholls (REGAL PARADE) and Jeremy Noseda (FLEETING SPIRIT) have both failed to have a horse finish in the money from five and three runners respectively. Whilst on the subject of FLEETING SPIRIT, fillies don’t have a bad record in the race having won five of the last fifteen renewals.

Price wise, it is those at the forefront of the betting that usually gain the upper hand, although there have been a couple of recent minor blips. At the moment, HIGH STANDING holds the box seat closely followed by FLEETING SPIRIT, FINJAAN and MAIN AIM.

SHORTLIST

HIGH STANDING

FLEETING SPIRIT

(SAYIF)

CONCLUSION

On paper this looks to be a wide open renewal but there is a lot to like about Harry Findlay’s HIGH STANDING. Prior to winning the Wokingham connections felt they had a Group animal on their hands and they have been proved right so far after he won the Group 3 Shadwell Stakes at Newbury. This represents a further step up in class but I believe it is not beyond him. Six furlongs is clearly his ideal trip but the added bonus is that he is very versatile in terms of ground. He won on Good to Firm at Ascot and Soft at Newbury so I wouldn’t have concerns about the weather over the next 24 hours. From a trends point of view, he is from the ideal age group, a Group 3, last time out 6f winner and at the head of the betting. Willie Haggas has cleverly booked Fallon to ride and I can see the headlines now “Group 1 winner on his second day back!”

FLEETING SPIRIT did us all a favour when winning the July Cup at a juicy price but whilst she isn’t as attractively priced at around 4/1 tomorrow, I would be surprised if she isn’t involved in the finish. Trends wise, she meets most of them head on although Jeremy Noseda’s record isn’t ideal. The final horse to make the shortlist SAYIF is a bit of a long shot. He isn’t particularly strong from a trends point of view but I think there are redeeming factors. I believe 6f is his best trip and he is another that would appear to act on any ground. Although he was only 5th in the Maurice de Gheest last month, I thought he ran a solid race to finish just over a length behind the eventual winner King’s Apostle. I believe that the drop down in trip tomorrow will suit him better and if he can carry the form over from Deauville, I wouldn’t rule out a bold effort. As I said it does require a leap of faith, but at around 25/1 I am tempted to have a little bit each-way.

3.40 Thirsk

The Hambleton Cup has a rich tradition but isn’t the race it once was. Having said that, this looks a decent renewal. RANGEFINDER immediately jumps off the page being trained by the Newmarket handler Luca Cumani. The ex-Italian trained horse is yet to get off the mark in this country but posted his best effort yet when losing out in a head bobber at Leicester last time to the reliable yard stick Charlie Tokyo. Clearly the testing conditions suited as he looked the most likely winner inside the final furlong before just losing out to the Fahey runner. COEUR DE LIONNE was impressive when winning at Newmarket last month and even though he is up 5lbs tomorrow I still feel that he remains well treated. The only three-year-old in the race SANCTUARY remains pretty unexposed and I think we can out his latest defeat down to the ground as he was looking to hang on the Good to Form ground. His action suggests he will appreciate some cut so he could be worth a few pennies each-way tomorrow.

SHORTLIST

RANGEFINDER

COEUR DE LIONNE

SANCTUARY

3.50 Leopardstown – Tattersalls Millions Irish Champion Stakes

The billing has this as a showdown between SEA THE STARS and FAME AND GLORY both of which need no introduction from me. Personally, I don’t think this is a betting race although I shall look forward to watching the outcome. On what I have seen so far SEA THE STARS looks the better of the two but on softer ground I can see the O’Brien horse turning the tables as he won on heavy ground twice in his juvenile season. MASTERCRAFTSMAN looks next best although I thought he always looked held by SEA THE STARS in the Juddmonte. It could be dangerous to overlook CASUAL CONQUEST after his soft ground success in the Royal Whip last time although 7lbs is a lot of weight to concede to some very talented juveniles.

SHORTLIST

FAME AND GLORY