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St Leger Service – 9th Sept 09

Tue, Sep 8, 2009

Xtrends

Wednesday 9th September

2.00 Doncaster – Wilkinson Frenchgate Nursery

There aren’t any trends to help us in the opening contest of this year’s St Leger Festival, although it is worth pointing out that there hasn’t been a winning favourite since 2000. When it comes to nurseries I always tend to favour horses which are yet to show their full hand to the handicapper and there are two runners here which particularly interest me. The first is Andrew Balding’s twice raced BRICK RED. He never got involved at any stage on his debut at Newbury last month but put that behind him with a much better effort when dead-heating at Kempton 16 days ago. That win came over a furlong shorter than this but from his racing style I don’t believe the step up will pose a problem. The thing that interests me most is the fact that he still looked quite backward at Kempton and still managed to dead-heat, so you would expect him to come on bundles for the experience. Barry Hills’ colt RANSOM NOTE is the second runner to catch my attention. He too is only twice raced and again was very disappointing on his debut at Newmarket in July. However, he posted an impressive victory on his next start at Chester in what looks a reasonable maiden. Admittedly it was a race Barry Hills has farmed in the past, winning it six times in nine years, but he still looked rather green to me in the early stages as he wasn’t the quickest away. However, he picked up nicely when the splits came to win a bunched finish which means the handicapper hasn’t be able to clobber him. Of the rest, I think it could be dangerous to underestimate JUTLAND despite a modest effort last time. He wasn’t handed the best of draws so was forced to race wide and didn’t get the clearest of passages at the business end of the race. The form of his Brighton win has worked out nicely as the runner-up went in next time, so if the excuses for his Sandown run are valid, he should have every chance here. MR GRINCH catches the eye with his 100% record but I think it is fair to say that he hasn’t beaten over a lot and this looks a much tougher proposition, especially as he is forced to give weight away. DESERT AUCTION has already had 10 starts this term and is looking exposed but as with any Hannon juvenile, you overlook them at your peril. LUCKY RAVE was very impressive at Lingfield last time but looks happier on the polytrack and the fact that connections feel he is an ideal horse for the US doesn’t bode well for his return to the turf. FARMER GILES was well beaten in a listed affair at York last month and although this looks a slightly easier option, he is far from guaranteed to get the trip so will not be carrying my money. It is probably safe to ignore ATACAMA CROSSING’s latest run as the softish ground probably didn’t suit but even so he looks held by AUDACITY OF HOPE based on the Newmarket form as the McBride horse wouldn’t have been at home on it either. PLEASANT DAY won well last time but the fact that he has already been gelded and wears blinkers; suggest that he isn’t the most straight forward of animals. I am not convinced by FLANEUR or MISS SMILLA but I do like TARANSFIXED. She has had a busy season and is thoroughly exposed but she is genuine and often that is half the battle.

SHORTLIST

BRICK RED

RANSOM NOTE

(JUTLAND)

2.35 Doncaster – Sainsbury’s Frenchgate Conditions Stakes

Richard Hannon has won this race twice in the last four years, so ANGEL’S PURSUIT and FOOTSTEPSOFSPRING are as good a place to start as any. The former is well in front on official ratings but even so I have my doubts about him over this 6f trip. I had been keen on the latter earlier in the season but I think he looks pretty exposed now and I can see one or two of the less exposed runners improving past him. BOND FASTRAC could be one of those as I was impressed by him when winning at Redcar in July. I backed him each-way at York to follow up and although he was beaten he ran another sound race and I am not sure that we have seen the best of him yet. Reg Hollinshead is an icon of the sport but even so I couldn’t have BILASH in this after two ordinary efforts. COLONEL MARK looks in the grip of the handicapper but the same can’t be said of LOVEINTHESAND after only two starts. He was as green as grass when a beaten favourite on his debut at Hamilton in June and looked far from the finished article when 4th at York last month. I know that this fellow is well thought of at home and could spring a surprise if building on his experiences so far. I saw HIGH SPICE on her debut win at Newmarket but it is fair to say that she hasn’t really built on that this season and I am not convinced that this step up in trip will suit. ROODLE has been pitched in at the deep end on her last couple of starts so should appreciate the slight drop down in class and with her fillies’ allowance; I can see her having a hand in the finish. TRANSVAAL SKY looks open to plenty of improvements after just two starts. After a modest debut at Newbury she improved to win a respectable fillies’ maiden at Lingfield in good style and there is every reason to believe she has more to offer in this sphere.

SHORTLIST

BOND FASTRAC

TRANSVAAL SKY

3.10 Doncaster – Debenhams Frenchgate Conditions Stakes

Godolphin have won this particular race four times in the last decade so it could be very dangerous to underestimate CHOCK A BLOCK. He won his sole start for Robert Collet in France last year in eye catching fashion so it wasn’t totally surprising that Godolphin picked him up over the winter. However, he was very disappointing on his only start for them, trailing in a well beaten last in the Cocked Hat Stakes in May. That run was really too bad to be true but being by Dalakhani out of a Kahyasi mare there is every chance that it all came a little too quickly for him. With a summer on his back, he could well have come on but until I have seen evidence to support that theory, he won’t be carrying my money. TWICE OVER comes into the race as the top rated horse and this looks significantly easier than the Group 1s he has been running in. A repeat of his effort on the Lockinge or Prince Of Wales’s Stakes earlier this year will make him very difficult to beat, especially if there is a drop of rain between now and the time of the off. I am a big fan of Tom Tate so KINGS GAMBIT looks appealing but I feel he has a bit to find with the Cecil horse. SWEET LILLY doesn’t look up to this but GITANO HERNANDO could well prove to be a good deal better than what we have seen so far. After a modest start to his racing career, he won well at Doncaster in March before posting another impressive effort when just losing out in a head bobber to South Easter in the Dee Stakes. That proved to be his last start so he has obviously suffered a setback but as long as that is behind him now he could well have a hand in the finish. Paul Cole won this race in 2000 and SERVA JUGUM shouldn’t be ruled out here after chasing home Campanologist in the Group 3 Winter Hill Stakes on his seasonal reappearance last month.

SHORTLIST

GITANO HERNANDO

3.45 Doncaster – DFS Scarbrough Stakes

None of these sprinters need much of an introduction from me. It would be easy to argue a case for any of the ten runners but there are two that I have been keeping an eye on for a while. The first is CAPTAIN GERRARD who is a real 5f specialist. He may not have won since the early part of 2008 but he has run some nice races in defeat this year which includes a 4th place in the Group 1 King’s Stand Stakes. I can’t help but feel that he is long overdue a victory although a very similar comment could also apply to MOORHOUSE LAD. HOH HOH HOH was impressive earlier in the season and now that he is back to a realistic level he cannot be ruled out. However, the second horse to interest me is STRIKE THE DEAL. I know that he is yet to win over the minimum trip but he has been very consistent at a higher level than this and the booking of Fallon looks a positive move. He wouldn’t want to see too much rain but he is another that I think is overdue a victory. You could have knocked me down with a feather when DANDY MAN won at Leicester last Tuesday. However, it was only a 3 runner Class 3 conditions event so I still feel he is not one to be trusted at this level. I have put up SIRENS GIFT a few times this season but she was costing me money so I decided enough was enough at Epsom on Bank Holiday Monday. Sure enough she taught me a lesson by getting the upper hand in a head bobber and I am loathed to desert her again off the same mark.

 SHORTLIST

CAPTAIN GERRARD

STRIKE THE DEAL

4.20 Doncaster – New Look Frenchgate Handicap

I am quite keen on the chances of RUSSIAN JAR in this decent looking handicap. After an impressive debut victory at Leicester in May he pulled too hard to do himself justice on his next start over a mile at Newmarket. It wasn’t a surprise to see Michael Jarvis drop him down in trip after that performance and he fared much better next time over a furlong shorter. He is receiving plenty of weight from most of his rivals here and I don’t think I will leave him un-backed. BROAD CAIRN worries me after impressing over the summer. He is up another 4lbs for his recent Warwick victory but he was good for a bit better than the official margin and I am not sure he has stopped improving yet. WILDCAT WIZARD was a course and distance winner last season but he didn’t look the same horse earlier in the season. He has been given a break since chasing home Infiraad at the Guineas Meeting so there is every chance that those two poor efforts are behind him. Richard Hannon won the first running of this race in 2007 but BONNIE CHARLIE looks up against it off top weight especially as the ground doesn’t look to suit. Gary Moore is a very shrewd trainer and enjoys winning these big festival handicaps. JET D’EAU hasn’t done a lot wrong on her two starts so far this season and I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off backing her. One that could have slipped under the radar is AGENTE PARMIGIANO who was only beaten a length on his last start at Kempton. That effort came off 95 but he gets in today off just 87 and could well reward each-way support.

SHORTLIST

RUSSIAN JAR

(AGENTE PARMIGIANO)

4.50 Doncaster – Evans Frenchgate Handicap (Division I)

A horse in form, locally trained and Fallon booked to ride. HAAJES looks to have everything going for him off his current mark and I can see him receiving plenty of support tomorrow. However, I feel he is a better animal with some cut in the ground and if it remains on the fast side at Doncaster, I believe that the value lies elsewhere. I have been very impressed with Ruth Carr this season and although RACCOON was beaten last time I don’t think he can be ruled out in this contest. A quick 5f suits him down to the ground and he gets on very well with his rider. TOTAL IMPACT has been going the right way on his last few starts and I would give him every chance off the same mark as when last winning at Redcar in May. HAZELRIGG could prove one for the each-way backer as he hasn’t had a lot of racing this year. He had been off the track for the best part of a year when finishing 9th at Carlisle last month, so that can be considered a decent effort especially as he didn’t get the clearest of runs. That experience should have blown away the cobwebs so I wouldn’t rule out a better effort in this trappy affair.

SHORTLIST

RACCOON

TOTAL IMPACT

(HAZELRIGG)

5.25 Doncaster – Evans Frenchgate Handicap (Division II)

The veteran THE TATLING may not be the force he once was but he has certainly been holding his own at this level and personally I would love to see him land this at one of the season major Festivals. Him aside, I also like the look of FEELIN FOXY but only if there is a definite ease in the going. On fast ground I wouldn’t be so keen but on good ground or softer she must certainly come into the equation. This course and distance winner wasn’t beaten far behind the good yardstick ROTHESAY DANCER (who now looks in the grip of the handicapper) at Carlisle last month and prior to that had pushed the progressive Blue Jack very close at Goodwood. The top-weight INVINCIBLE LAD drops a long way after contesting the listed Beverley Bullet last month. He could only finish a modest 13th but I wouldn’t be too downbeat as he got absolutely no luck in running and is better than his finishing position suggests. The rest all have form between each other and to be honest is isn’t that easy to unravel. SECRET VENUE looks held by EFISTORM on their Musselburgh running but Conor Dore’s runner looks held by THE TATLING based on their Newmarket form.

SHORTLIST

INVINCIBLE LAD

THE TALING

FEELIN FOXY

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