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1.55 Doncaster – DFS Champagne Stakes (Group 2)

I was quite keen on the chances of SILVER GRECIAN ahead of his success in the Superlative Stakes and he duly landed the gamble at a respectable 5/1, with EMPEROR CLAUDIUS well held in 6th. I didn’t think it was the strongest of renewals and my view has been mostly supported since although Shakespearean did win the Group 3 Solario Stakes next time out. Therefore, I think his 100% record could be on the line tomorrow, especially as he is forced to concede 3lbs. Mark Johnston has won this race twice in the last decade with the classy Lucky Story and McCartney. LAYALI AL ANDALUS could well at his name to that tally judged on what we have seen so far. After a pleasing debut at Ayr, he hosed up by 7L next time over course and distance. It wasn’t the strongest of races but the Nursery that he won next time at Newcastle certainly was. Again, the result never looked in question and it was simply a question of how far. I know that Mark Johnston thinks a lot of this son of Halling and he would not be running him here unless he thought he would do himself justice. POET’S VOICE promised so much when routing his 3 rivals at Newmarket in July. Because of that I was slightly disappointed with him in the Acomb but with hindsight I am prepared to cut him some slack. He did have a problem with the stalls at the start of that race which probably fired him up too much and he paid the price in the closing part of the race. If Dettori gets him to settle better in this race, I firmly expect him to be there or thereabouts at the finish. VISCOUNT NELSON has been quietly progressing with each start over in Ireland and looks the pick of the 3 from Ballydoyle. A listed winner last time, this half brother to the ill-fated Horatio Nelson and Kitty Matcham is bred to go all the way to the top and a victory here could well see him return to Town Moor for the Racing Post Trophy next month.

SHORTLIST

LAYALI AL ANDALUS

2.25 Doncaster – Ladbrokes Portland Handicap

With 24 runners set to go to post, we must let the trends strip out the so-called dead wood. The first consideration is the fact that we haven’t seen a three-year-old winner of the Portland since 2000, so SEA OF LEAVES is the first to bite the dust. When it comes to positives it is difficult to favour one age group over another, so although the four and five-year-olds hold a minimal advantage, I do not want to get too caught up in this area.

When it comes to official ratings, horses rated no lower than 93 have won eight of the last ten renewals, so we should be able to discount NORTHERN DARE, TONY THE TAP, PEAK DISTRICT, ORPSIE BOY and GREEN MANALISHI with a reasonable degree of confidence. Last time out form isn’t nearly as important as it would be in say a Group 1 race. Only two recent Portland winners had been successful last time out, suggesting that it is the runners which have protected their handicap rating coming into the race are the ones to concentrate on. So whilst it would be foolish to discount those last time out winners purely on this stat alone, it does make you think a little differently about the more fancied runners.

Unsurprisingly, the Stewards’ Cup has supplied the most number of recent winners. MARKAB was the highest finisher at Goodwood this year, finishing 4th, with STRIKING SPIRIT back in 8th, BUACHAILL DONA 13th and BARNEY MCGREW 21st. Ripon’s Great St Wilfrid is next best having supplied four recent winners. MARKAB earns another feather in his cap as he was the narrow victor in this year’s contest with STRIKING SPIRIT 7th, EVERYMANFORHIMSELF 11th and JUDGE ‘N JURY 14th. Newmarket’s 6f Heritage Handicap on Guineas Day is the other race to look at. OLD JOE SAID was the highest finisher in this year’s contest in 8th with FULLANDBY 17th.

Thanks to the exploits of Halmahera, Kevin Ryan is the leading trainer in terms of recent winners, although if you were to ignore the Doncaster specialist his record doesn’t look so good with 10 of his other runners failing to have any impact on the outcome. No other trainer has a particularly strong record but it does need pointing out that Dandy Nicholls record over the last ten years read, no winners and two places from a whopping 28 runners.

The draw in a race such as the Portland is usually very important, as not many horses win races such as this from down the centre of the track. Historically, high numbers marginally outpoint those drawn low but judged on the racing at Town Moor so far this week, the doesn’t appear to be any significant bias. The final trend to consider is the one surrounding the betting. Seven of the last ten winners have come from the first six in the betting with the longest priced winner in the last decade no higher than 20/1.

SHORTLIST

MARKAB

INTREPID JACK

BARNEY MCGREW

OLDJOESAID

CONCLUSION

Thanks to his 4th place in the Stewards’ Cup and his win the Great St Wilfrid, MARKAB comes out top on the trends. In addition to that, he is drawn close to a rail in stall 4, well above the minimum handicap rating and currently at the head of the betting. So if you are strict follower of the trends he is the one to be on. Personally, I have a few question marks hanging over him. He was all out to win the Great St Wilfrid off a mark of 100 but is 4lbs higher tomorrow and may just be in the grip of the handicapper now. In the last decade, only the brilliant Halmahera has managed to win the Portland off 9st 10lbs so I think he looks vulnerable. I am also not convinced that a low draw is best as allow winners have been coming down both sides of the track this week, the pace in this race seems to be all drawn high. Therefore, I am prepared to overlook him tomorrow in favour of the second horse on the shortlist.

INTREPID JACK is usually towards the head of the betting for this type of race but I think this time it is truly justified. He has posted some really impressive efforts in defeat this season, the best of which was when only beaten just under 8L behind Fleeting Spirit in the July Cup. Since then, he ran another respectable race to finish 3L 6th in the Sky Bet Dash at York, a race which has supplied two recent winners of this race, before a narrow defeat behind BARNEY MCGREW at the Ebor Meeting. Despite this consistency the handicapper has been kind and he is now on an attractive mark of just 102 compared to 113 at the end of last season. Given that his last victory in the Group 3 Hackwood Stakes at Newbury came off 104, it has to be considered a winning mark. Additionally, even though the Portland is run over 5 1/2f, I think you need a 6f horse to win it and INTREPID JACK fits the bill nicely. I believe he has been handed a good draw in stall 18 as that is where the pace seems to be and with Hughie Morrison’s yard currently in top gear, I think everything looks primed for a very bold effort.

BARNEY MCGREW was just over a length ahead of him at York last time but the pair are weighted to finish a lot closer together with Michael Dods’ horse going up 3lbs in the handicap. However, I have been quite impressed with this horse this season as he really looks to have found his feet in the sprinting ranks. I wouldn’t say 3lbs is overly harsh given that he beat a decent line up at York and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see carry on improving. The Darlington based handlers’ horses have been running well over the past few weeks and from 21 I don’t think this fellow will be far away at the finish.

The final horse on the shortlist is Henry Candy’s other runner OLDJOESAID. He is another horse that has tumbled down the handicap without doing too much wrong. He wasn’t beaten far off a mark in the 100s earlier in the year and ran a cracker on Derby Day in the Dash from the worst draw. He wasn’t helped by the draw last time either, but still posted a solid effort to finish 6th behind Blue Jack at Sandown last month. It is true that he is probably a shade better when able to get his toe in a bit but he did win his maiden on good to firm ground so he completes the quartet.

3.00 Doncaster – Ladbrokes St Leger (Group 1)

When it comes to key trials for the St Leger, the Great Voltigeur Stakes is the clear leader having supplied six of the last ten winners of the final Classic of the season. In fact, all six of those winners had been no worse than 4th on the Knavesmire and as we have the 1st, 2nd and 3rd (MONITOR CLOSELY, MASTERY and FATHER TIME) in this year’s line up there is every chance that this strong trend will continue. The Gordon Stakes is another important pointer but unfortunately it isn’t represented this year. It is not surprising that eight of the last ten St Leger winners had run in the English, Irish or French Derbys. However, they are thin on the ground in this season’s contest as only KITE WOOD (9th in the English Derby) and MOURAYAN (3rd in the Irish Derby) have previously run in a Classic. Actually, that isn’t strictly true as MASTERY actually won the Italian Derby but with all respect to those at Capannelle, it isn’t held in such high esteem as its European rivals.

Aidan O’Brien has been responsible for the greatest number of runners in this race in the last decade but he has been rewarded with three victories. CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD looks to be his number one challenger this year with VON JAWLENSKY surely nothing more than a pacemaker. Saeed Bin Suroor has won two of the last ten renewals, so KITEWOOD and MASTERY earn a tick in the right box. Barry Hills has had a couple reach the frame in the last decade but surely that is all he can hope for again with the outsider ABOVE AVERAGE.

When it comes to recent form, last time out winners lead the way having won nine of the last 13 renewals. That is good news for supporters of KITE WOOD and MONITOR CLOSELY but it needs to be pointed that that the remaining four had been no worse 4th so CHANGINOFTHEGUARD, FATHER TIME, MASTERY and MOURAYAN aren’t shaken off that easily but it would appear to be a nail in the coffin for the two outsiders. Stamina is another key requirement as nine of the last 11 winners’ stallions had a Racing Post Stamina Index of at least 10.3f. That suggests that CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD (Montjeu – 11.6f), KITE WOOD (Galileo – 11.2f) and MASTERY (Sulamani – 11.3f) should be staying on when others are crying enough.

Finally, favourites have a very good record in the St Leger, winning eight of the last 12 renewals. KITE WOOD currently occupies that berth but CHANGINGOFTHEGUARD is hot on his heels, closely followed by FATHER TIME and MONITOR CLOSELY.

SHORTLIST

KITE WOOD

CONCLUSION

KITE WOOD ticks plenty of boxes and gets the vote in what looks one of the most open St Legers for years. He qualifies having been the only entrant to have run in the English Derby, trained by Godolphin who have won this race twice in the last decade, a winner last time out, bred to get the job done and currently to the forefront of the betting. He looked a very progressive horse last season, winning the Group 3 Autumn Stakes on his final start. Although he could only finish 5th in the Dante, he was only beaten 2L and at that particular time Godolphin’s horses hadn’t really hit top gear. It has to be said, he was disappointing in the Derby even though the boys in blue still hadn’t hit top form. I think he paid the price by trying to race with Sea The Stars who we know is probably one of the best horses we have seen for many a year. However, he bounced back when stepped up in trip in the Bahrain Trophy, eventually running out a comfortable winner and he proved that was no fluke by following up in the Geoffrey Freer ay Newbury last month. I am slightly worried by the things that have been said by Simon Crisford in recent days as he obviously knows the horse better than I do but I wouldn’t be surprised if he is trying to play things down. Hopefully he will take his place in the line up but should he be a surprise withdrawal John Oxx’s MOURAYAN should act as an able substitute having finished a respectable 3rd in the Irish Derby.

3.35 Doncaster – DFS Park Stakes (Group 2)

Given that this race is worth £90k, I would have thought that more than 6 would have lined up. ARABIAN GLEAM won this race in 2007 and 2008 so is clearly on for the shortlist as he bids for the hat-trick. He was well beaten on his last start in the Queen Anne but he is clearly a 7f specialist so I would not be surprised in the slightest to see him land this. CAT JUNIOR didn’t get the clearest of runs in the Supreme Stakes at Goodwood last time but I see him more of a 1m+ horse and I think he could get tapped for toe early on in this. DUFF earned his first Group success in the Ballycorus Stakes in June before reverting to sprinting on his last two starts. I think 7f is his ideal trip and I believe he has every chance of returning to winning ways here, especially as Fran Berry gets on very well with the horse. STIMULATION is the top rated horse in the race but he has been off since winning the Challenge Stakes on the Champions Day card at Newmarket. He too looks very much a 7f specialist but he has been off a long time and may just need it tomorrow, although the betting should provide more of a clue. A similar comment also applies to the twice raced HIMALYA who was last seen chasing home ART CONNOISSEUR in the 2008 Coventry Stakes. OUQBA was very impressive when winning the Jersey Stakes in June but was disappointing in the Lennox Stakes, although he was found to be lame after the race. If he has got over that he will be many peoples idea of the winner, but I am prepared to stick with the Irish raider.

SHORTLIST

DUFF

4.05 Doncaster – Doncaster Premier Inn & Table Table Handicap

I keep going back to this race and I am still struggling to find a horse that doesn’t look in the grip of the handicapper. SECRECY is the only unexposed runner but then he has been off the track since September 2008 so doesn’t look a serious betting proposition. BALCARCE NOV races off a lifetime high mark but he has impressed me with his attitude and should appreciate the return to a mile after a solid effort over 7f at York last time. ALAZEYAB was disappointing in the John Smith’s Cup and Summer Vase at Goodwood but bounced back with a much better effort over a mile in the Addleshaw Goddard Stakes at York. He gets another 3lbs as a result but he has a chance with conditions to suit and a win here would set him up nicely for the Cambridgeshire. MANASSAS, SWOP and BRIEF ENCOUNTER all look too high in the weights to me and I don’t the fact that TARTAN GIGHA, WEBBOW and KAY GEE BEE are running from out of the handicap. ESPIRITU wasn’t beaten far in a decent Ascot handicap last time out. I though he was a little too keen for his own good early on in that race but if Jamie Spencer is able to get him settled here, I would give him every chance of only a 2lbs higher mark.

SHORTLIST

BALCARCE NOV

ALAZEYAB

ESPIRITU

4.40 Doncaster – Mosspm.co.uk Nursery

TOGA TIGER got found out at listed level last time so you would have to assume that at least one of his rivals will improve past him tomorrow. AZIZI was on a hat-trick ahead of his run at Newmarket last month but just failed to reel in Richard Hannon’s Red Badge. He stayed on strongly in the closing stages of that particular contest suggesting to me that he needed to step up in trip and as that is what he does tomorrow I have him down as a major player. It may have been the tight turns of Chester that did for GUNNER LINDLEY last time as he never looked happy at any stage of the race. That would be a slight concern for me as there is a chance that the handicapper has him. MISTER ANGRY is owned by a group of Mark Johnston’s original owners and he has rewarded the faith with three straight victories. His Racing Post Trophy entry might prove a little ambitious but there is no doubt that he is a classy animal and even though jockey bookings suggest that WHIPPERS LOVE is the number one string, I wouldn’t let that put you off. WHIPPERS LOVE, owned by Mick Doyle the owner of Fruits Of Love and Pearl Of Love, has finally got his act together recently after taking a while to get going. I don’t think he was ever going to show his true colours until talking this sort of trip and that proved the case. On his first attempt at a mile, he broke the juvenile course record at Newmarket so although he doesn’t hold such fancy entries as his stable mate, I believe that he is a horse to keep on the right side off, especially as his pedigree suggests he will be a better horse next year. DROMORE is the least exposed of these and did absolutely nothing wrong when winning a competitive maiden at Salisbury last month. A half-brother to the classy Storming Home, he could well turn out to be a cut above average and it will interesting to see how he comes on for the run. START RIGHT is yet to get off the mark but he suggested that it won’t be long in coming with a much improved effort at Warwick last time. The step up in trip should play to his strengths and he looks the dark horse of the race. BALTIMORE CLIPPER is another that has improved with each run, notably when stepped up to a mile last time. The handicapper has been fairly lenient giving him a mark of just 74 and with a little further improvement he could also be one to trouble the judge.

SHORTLIST

WHIPPERS LOVE

AZIZI

5.15 Doncaster – Universalrecyclingcompany.co.uk Handicap

And so we move on to the final race from this year’s St Leger Festival. FALCON ROCK has impressive form figures at first glance but when you delve deeper you will see that he isn’t the easiest horse to ride, as he has to be delivered with perfect timing. Add to that the fact that he is up another 4lbs for his 2nd at Newmarket last month and I am prepared to look elsewhere. QUAI D’ORSAY is back to a mark just 1lb higher than when he scored at Haydock in July. It has to be said that it wasn’t the strongest of races and he only held on by the skin of his teeth after being allowed to dictate and I don’t think his 7 rivals will allow him that luxury tomorrow. Stable-mate MATRAASH went out like a light at York last time and you would have to surmise that the handicapper has him exactly where he wants him. NIGHT CRESCENDO is weighted to run a big race but I think he is a better horse on slightly easier ground and also prefers going right handed. DOUBNOV has some decent form in France when with Jean-Claude Rouget but he is without a win since July 2007, better with some juice in the ground and has a long absence to overcome. I think SEEKING THE BUCK is worth another try at 1m4f even though he tired out of it at York last month. He had quite a progressive profile prior to that and I am not sure that the handicapper has his measure just yet. SNOQUALMIE BOY would have a squeak on the best of his form but he hasn’t won since winning the Hampton Court Stakes in 2006. That leaves PRECISION BREAK who I quite fancied for the Ebor. Ultimately, he was very disappointing at York but then we are all entitled to an off day. He is on a lifetime high Mark but I don’t believe that he has stopped improving yet and given a strong gallop this drop down in trip could play right into his hands.

SHORTLIST

PRECISION BREAK

SEEKING THE BUCK