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Saturday 26th September

1.55 Ascot

If the truth be told you could ask ten different people and get ten different winners for Ascot’s opener. Most of these are pretty well known to the flat racing public but the one to interest me most is one of the lesser known. APPLAUSE looked a nice filly when finishing in the money on her two starts at the back end of last season and put that experience to good use when making a belated reappearance at Windsor in July. There wasn’t a great deal of strength in that race so the form didn’t look the strongest but she dispelled those fears with a very impressive effort at Redcar later that month. This race was much stronger but again she put her six rivals to the sword to run out a cosy winner. After just four starts, there is every chance that we haven’t seen the best of her yet, so I am not unduly worried by the fact that she up 10lbs from her Redcar success. The ground, trip and draw all look to be ideal, so she will do form me in an open heat. ALSACE LORRAINE keeps on surprising me as just when you think the handicapper has her, she improves again. Although she was beaten at Goodwood last time, she wasn’t beaten far and off just a 1lb higher mark, she can go close once again. SHAMWARI LODGE has been a thorn in my side this season. Every time I backed her she was beaten but the one time I decided to leave well alone, in she goes. Having said that, I thought she ran a belter at Doncaster to chase home Fantasia and if she is able to repeat that form, she must have every chance here. Of the rest, I am reluctantly going to overlook SARAH PARK as I think the handicapper might have her now but I am not so keen to write off RESORT who has impressed me on her last two runs. I am also a fan of Andrew Balding when it comes to runners at Ascot and ADA RIVER could run well for each-way backers.

SHORTLIST

APPLAUSE

ALSACE LORRAINE

SHAMWARI LODGE

ADA RIVER

2.25 Haydock

With only 7lbs separating the majority of the field, this looks sure to produce a tight finish. OVERTURN is untried at the trip and has plenty of weight so I would have to be against him, even though he posted a solid effort at Kempton last time. One that I am keen on is Jim Goldie’s GORDONSVILLE as although he is no superstar, he is a genuine horse and you can always rely on him to run his race. I believe that 1m6f is just about his ideal trip and the key to getting the best out of him is genuinely fast ground. He ran his usual sound race at Hamilton last time but the slight ease in the ground took its toll so I feel that everything looks right for him tomorrow. RED KESTREL is less exposed than most and is another that I feel is better suited to fast ground. His best effort of the year came when beaten only 3L in the Cadbury Cup at York and if he is able to replicate that here, he looks to be in with a shout. There is no doubt that LOST SOLDIER THREE is well handicapped at present but he isn’t the easiest horse to win with an I believe the ground will be too fast for him. The maiden MULBROOK is an interesting one for Luca Cumani. On what I have seen, he doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary and probably prefers some juice in the ground but I hate opposing Cumani horses as they usually put one over on you.

SHORTLIST

GORDONSVILLE

RED KESTREL

2.30 Ascot – Juddmonte Royal Lodge Stakes (Group 2)

I wrote the tips for the racecard for this meeting so have had a good look at the form and watched a few replays. Looking at the O’Brien pair first, I wasn’t overly impressed with MIKHAIL GLINKA at Killarney last time as he looked a very quirky customer. It was only his second run so there is every chance that his exploits can be put down to inexperience but I am always wary around potentially un-genuine animals. I was also slightly disappointed with JOSHUA TREE, who after a narrow success on his debut, could not get near the winner at Listowel last time. However, there hasn’t been much to complain about when it comes to FROZEN POWER. The winner of his last three starts, including a listed success at Deauville last time, he looks a very progressive colt but even so he is not my strongest fancy. Stable-mate VALE OF YORK was an impressive winner on his debut and didn’t run a bad race when 5th in the Acomb. He followed that with a victory at Goodwood when dropped down to listed class and I think it could be dangerous to write him off as the supposedly second string. However, the one I am tempted to back is John Gosden’s HIGH TWELVE. After an encouraging debut at Sandown, he returned to the Esher track to win his maiden in the style of a very classy horse. I accept that it was only a maiden and not the strongest at that but I always like to go with what my eyes are telling me and I was very impressed with his performance. Aside from him, I was also impressed with WASEET who also won at Sandown last time. It wasn’t the best of times but he was clearly being eased half a furlong out and would have been near to standard had he needed to have been pushed out to the line. I will wait until the market has been formed and then consider having a few quid on as a saver.

SHORTLIST

HIGH TWELVE

WASEET

3.00 Haydock

This looks a strange race on paper as other than FILLIGREE, most have been struggling for form recently. The trip and conditions will be ideal for Rae Guest’s filly and off only a 3lbs higher mark, she is entitled to go close but I can’t help but feel that there are one or two well handicapped animals lurking in the woodwork. TAJNEED is a typical example. He hasn’t been in the Winners’ Enclosure since landing the 2008 Great St Wilfrid and although he has run some decent races in defeat, never looked like winning. He is down another 3lbs tomorrow and he is starting to look like a winner waiting to happen but before you rush out to the bookies, he is vehemently better with some cut in the ground, so tomorrow may not be his day. PROHIBIT may prove the better option tomorrow as he is now back to the same mark as when last winning at Great Leighs last October. I have watched a repeat of his run in the Wokingham and although he does carry his head rather awkwardly, I thought he ran with plenty of credit considering that he was slowly away and drawn on the wrong side. I think he can be a quirky individual but Rob Havlin has won on him in the past and if everything drops right, he could prove the one to beat. EVERYMANFORHIMSELF ran a belter in the Portland and did win over course and distance in August but he is a bit in and out and y fear would be that the handicapper has him. As regular readers probably know, I am a big fan of Stuart Williams and I always take note when he sends one up north. With a string of duck eggs next to his name, ALDERMOOR will make limited appeal to the average punter but having looked deeper into his form, I can make a case for him. Last season he looked a progressive animal with form figures of 121 from his first three runs and picked up where he left off with a fine 4th to Dark Mischief on his reappearance at Newmarket in April. Since then he hasn’t always had his ideal conditions which is clearly a fast 6f but as a result he has seen his handicap mark drop from a lofty 99 to a more realistic 84. He should get his ideal conditions tomorrow and I think he will run a big race at hopefully a big price.

SHORTLIST

PROHIBIT

ALDERMOOR

3.05 Ascot – Meon Valley Stud Fillies’ Mile (Group 1)

You’ll Be Mine currently heads the betting after an encouraging success at Leopardstown at the start of the month. Being a full sister to the classy King Of Westphalia, she should handle the step up in class but I wouldn’t want to bet on it at around 3/1. LONG LASHES is next best according to the bookies but she at least has the form to back it up. After an impressive maiden success, she landed the Group 3 Sweet Solera on her next start before hating the heavy ground at the Curragh in the Moyglare Stud Stakes. She is clearly a much better filly than that run suggests and off the pair of I give her the upper hand. Having said all that about Group form, I am very tempted by a maiden! HIBAAYEB posted sound efforts in Newmarket and Folkestone maidens but not many gave her a chance when declared for the Group 2 May Hill Stakes at Doncaster. Starting at 40/1, she ran an absolute cracker to finish runner-up to Pollenator. Clive Brittain’s juveniles have been in belting form this season and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this filly add to that. Strictly speaking, DYNA WALTZ has plenty to find off an official rating of just 79 but she did little wrong when wining a Kempton maiden last time and being bred to go all the way to the top, she looks a decent price at around 10/1. SENT FROM HEAVEN and MUDAARAAH cannot be separated on their 1-2 in the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood although personally I fancy the Dunlop runner to reverse the form. If either are your fancy I certainly wouldn’t put you off as I think this is one of the more open renewals of this contest.

SHORTLIST

HIBAAYEB

MUDAARAAH

3.40 Ascot

I am very tempted to leave this race alone as it looks packed full of potential winners. Once again REDFORD has been in the Racing Post all week and surely he must repay the faith at some point? He gets the aid of a first time visor tomorrow, so could well improve, but this is an incredibly tough contest and I have question marks over him in my mind. GOLDEN DESERT has taken another hike up the weights but it would be dangerous to discount him whilst he is in this frame of mind. AXIOM has been a shade disappointing for me this season but he had the Fallon factor tomorrow and I also believe 7f is his best trip. SWIFT GIFT showed his liking for Ascot when winning the Victoria Cup in May and didn’t run a bad race in the Buckingham Palace at the Royal Meeting. He was back to winning ways at Newbury last time and even though he carries an extra 7lbs as a result, if I am tempted to have a bet he could be the one. Of course, GIGANTICUS lowered his colours at Royal Ascot and although he is high enough in the weights, he is dangerous to discount on a track where he usually runs his race. VITZNAU hasn’t been handed the kindest of draws but he has been running much better as he drops down the weights and he hasn’t been this low since the start of last season. CADRE is less exposed than most of these and he has gradually been showing a return to form. His latest effort in a Sandown listed affair was his best since May so I wouldn’t be too quick hitting the lay button. MARCHING TIME will be many people’s idea of the winner after wins at Salisbury and Goodwood. He is up another 5lbs but there is every chance that there is more to come from this son of Sadler’s Wells and a win here should catapult him up into Pattern class. Richard Fahey has been winning races for fun so CASTLES IN THE AIR, MISTER HARDY and BALDEMAR warrant particular attention. SEEK N’ DESTROY has proved himself something of 7f specialist and was really impressive when winning at Newmarket last month. The handicapper responded with a 9lbs rise up the weights but being so lightly raced there is every chance he will carry it off. WITHOUT PREDUDICE and CAPTAIN MACARRY are two others that cannot be written off lightly so if you find the winner here, my hat goes off to you.

SHORTLIST

SWIFT GIFT

VITZNAU

BALDEMAR

SEEK N’ DESTROY

3.50 Chester

KAOLAK looks a very progressive horse, winning his last two starts, and there could be further improvement as his steps up in trip. However, trying to get an angle into the race, he was all out when winning at Goodwood last time and has an extra 3lbs to contend with tomorrow. He is usually ridden prominently, so the main worry would be that he is vulnerable to a hold up performer, especially if he is taken on for the lead by MIRRORED who can tend to race a little freely. The one to benefit could be MUTAMAASHI, who likes to come from off the pace. He had to sit and suffer on both of his last starts, as he never got a clear run, but in this five runner field he should gets the splits. HOLLOW GREEN was a nice winner at Ayr but she is up another 5lbs today and surely the handicapper has to have her soon.

SHORTLIST

MUTAMAASHI

4.15 Ascot – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1)

With 5 runners set to go to post I can’t write off any of them based on one trend alone, so bear with me. Three-year-olds have the strongest recent record in the race, winning 16 of the last 25 renewals. That would suggest that the only four-year-old in the line up AQLAAM has a bit to find, especially as only one horse of that age has won here in the last decade.

Previous Group 1 winners hold a marginal advantage in the QEII, winning 6 of the last 10, so if we were to strictly adhere to that trend, an advantage can be given to AQLAAM, MASTERCRAFTSMAN and RIP VAN WINKLE. Going one step further, 9 of the last 13 winners had achieved a top two finish on their most recent start which isn’t brilliant news for MASTERCRAFTSMAN who was 3rd in the Irish Champion.

When it comes to key races, the Celebration Mile has proved the best recent pointer, so fans of DELEGATOR and ZACINTO will be pleased after they finished 1-2 at Goodwood. Unsurprisingly, the Eclipse, 2000 Guineas, Derby, Prince Of Wales’s Stakes, Queen Anne, St James’s Palace and Irish Champion Stakes are also reasonable pointers.

When it comes to trainers’ form, Saeed bin Suroor leads the way having won 4 of the last 13 renewals. However, Aidan O’Brien may have won the race once in 2006 but he has also seen some very high profile animals disappoint – you have been warned. RIP VAN WINKLE earns another negative due to the fact that he hasn’t run for 59 days as 12 of the last 13 winners had previously run within 35 days.

Finally, this hasn’t proved a brilliant race for favourites with plenty getting turned over in the last decade. At the moment RIP VAN WINKLE is currently a shade of odds on and that could prove the final nail in his coffin.

SHORTLIST

DELEGATOR

CONCLUSION

The Queen Elizabeth II Stakes is a race which can often throw up a surprise or two and that could be the case again this year as DELEGATOR ticks plenty of the right boxes. Being a three-year-old he is from the strongest age group, won the Celebration Mile on his latest start, one of the major pointer to the winner here in recent years, currently second favourite in the betting and representing a trainer with the best record. He misses out on the fact that he is yet to win at the highest level but take Sea The Stars out of the equation and he would have won the 2000 Guineas another strong pointer. He was awful at The Curragh but the heavy ground was the most likely cause for that and he lost nothing in defeat in the St James’s Palace. Since his victory at Goodwood, Godolphin have really hit a purple patch so if he is able to build on that success he could well be the one to lower the favourite’s colours.

4.50 Ascot

GLOWING looks a decent addition to Luca Cumani’s string after winning a Group 3 on her final start in Ireland. I have to admit I have never seen her race but the form is there for everyone to see. Previous trainer Charles O’Brien felt that she was best suited to a fast 7 or 8f and that is what she gets tomorrow. The form book suggests that she often needs scrubbing along and in Kieren Fallon; she has the ideal rider to do that. Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last six years so I wouldn’t be too quick to write off GOLDEN STREAM. She earned her black type with an encouraging effort at Warwick in June before a disappointing effort in a Goodwood Group 3. The ground probably wasn’t as fast as she wanted at Goodwood but she bounced back on a quicker surface at Bath last time, when third over a mile. CHANTILLY TIFFANY is yet to get off the mark this season but she has run some nice races in defeat. She will need to be at her very best tomorrow but she looked to be going the right way with a sound effort at Kempton last time. RED DUNE hasn’t really fulfilled the promise shown last season but 7f looks her ideal trip following a grand effort in the Oak Tree Stakes at Goodwood. Dettori got a good tune out of her that day and he didn’t ride a bad race at Doncaster last time either but he will know that she will need to improve on that if she is to trouble the judge. You can’t ignore TOTALLY DEVOTED after her 4th place in the Group 1 Matron Stakes. My only concern would be that she was comprehensively beaten on her only start on quick ground when 7th in the Ribblesdale.

SHORTLIST

GLOWING

GOLDEN STREAM

5.25 Ascot

Wasn’t SWEETHEART an impressive winner at Goodwood? The marathon trip really suited her well and she really put her rivals to the sword with a thorough staying performance. The handicapper has responded with an 8lbs hike up the weights but she is clearly on an upward curve and may be able to carry it off. Ian Williams’ MITH HILL looks a strong rival after winning impressively at Chester last time. He is another that has stamina to burn and a 5lbs rise doesn’t look overly harsh. Although he handled the good to firm ground okay that day, he did get the run of the race and I believe that he is better when able to get his toe in. RELATIVE STRENGTH was only 3rd at Chester but at the revised weights, I would favour him in a match bet. If the weight does catch up with SWEETHEART, the one I believe could benefit is PENANG PRINCESS, who had looked a progressive filly earlier in the season. She was sensibly given short break after wins at Sandown and Kempton and I think she lost nothing in defeat when reappearing at York last time. The quicker the ground the better for this daughter of Act One, so off a feather weight I feel she poses a big threat.

SHORTLIST

SWEETHEART

PENANG PRINCESS

Sunday 26th September

2.40 Ascot – Grosvenor Casinos Cumberland Lodge Stakes (Group 3)

I would love nothing more than to see DRILL SERGEANT win this. At the scene of possibly his best victory in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes, I feel it could be dangerous to dismiss him out of hand. But, everything looks set for a big run from MASTEROFTHEHORSE, the ex-Ballydoyle inmate. After a narrow defeat in the Chester Vase, he ran a cracker to finish 2L third to Sea The Stars in the Derby before struggling through the soft ground in the Irish equivalent. That form is well ahead of any of his rivals on Sunday and with Fallon booked to ride, I thoroughly expect him to get back to winning ways. CAMPANOLOGIST has been his usual consistent self this season and will be there or thereabouts at the finish whilst KINGDOM OF FIFE could find some improvement for the step up in trip.

SHORTLIST

MASTEROFTHEHORSE

2.45 The Curragh – C L Weld Park Stakes (Group 3)

I am not going to go into this race too much as I have to admit I haven’t seen a lot of the horses in it run. I did see PICTURE PERFECT run at The Curragh a couple of weeks ago and I thought she was the filly to take out of the race. She didn’t get a lot of luck in running but saw the race out quite well to eventually finish 4th. I know a bit about BIKINI BABE but not all of it positive, so I couldn’t fancy here at this level. On the formbook CORCOVADA looks to be the main challenger as she has steadily progressed this season culminating in a well earned listed success last time. Apparently, she was all out at the finish but showed a willing attitude and as you know I always like a game filly.

SHORTLIST

PICTURE PERFECT

CORCOVADA

3.15 Ascot – John Guest Diadem Stakes (Group 2)

This is as good as a Group 1 so most of the runners are well known to followers of the flat. I am going to keep the faith with HIGH STANDING who has defied the odds and kept on improving this season. His win here in the Wokingham was pretty workmanlike and took the step up into Pattern company in his stride by winning the Hackwood Stakes at Newbury next time. Although the ground was soft that day, I think it proved his undoing at Haydock in the Sprint Cup and I thoroughly expect to see him bounce back on the faster surface at Ascot. There are dangers coming from every direction. ART CONNOISEUR won the Golden Jubilee over course and distance in June but has been woeful since then. I have not heard any real excuses but I still feel his is dangerous to discount. DREAM EATER surprised me at York but proved that performance was no fluke with a sound effort in Turkey next time. PALCE MOON, a half brother to sprinter Sakhee’s Secret, has steadily progressed as he went up in class and I can see him running a big race after his success in the Hopeful Stakes last time. STRIKE THE DEAL did me a favour at Doncaster and proved that he is a horse in good form by following up at Newbury last Saturday.

SHORTLIST

HIGH STANDING

STRIKE THE DEAL

3.55 The Curragh – Juddmonte Beresford Stakes (Group 2)

Six victories in ten years suggest that this is a race that Aidan O’Brien likes to win. ST NICHOLAS ABBEY opened his account at the first time of asking last month and looks to be his number one contender. This is a million miles from an ordinary maiden but he has a pedigree to suggest that he could be well above average. Similar comments apply to Godolphin’s PASSION FOR GOLD who couldn’t have done it any easier on his debut at Thirsk and it will interesting to see how the market forms on Sunday. I had been hearing very nice comments about LAYALI AL ANDALUS but I was very disappointed by him in the Champagne Stakes. I am loathed to oppose a Johnston runner but he didn’t look up to it to me. MONTECCHIO probably has a bit to find but it has to be remembered that he pushed Alfred Nobel to 1 1/2L in an early season maiden, so he is clearly no mug. However, the main Irish challenge should come from REITERATION who made a very pleasing debut at The Curragh in July. It speaks volumes to me that Jim Bolger has not rushed him and isn’t worried to pitch him straight into this grade. He holds a string off top class entries suggesting that plenty is expected of him so at around 6/1 I am willing to gamble that he can lower the colours of the big two.

SHORTLIST

REITERATION