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EMIRATES AIRLINE CHAMPION STAKES – NEWMARKET, October 17th

A decent sized field for the final Group 1 action of the season from Newmarket.

From an age perspective PIPEDREAMER and BARSHIBA look out of this seeing as they’re five-year-olds and the dominate age groups in recent years have been the younger three and four-year olds, which make up the rest of the field.

Two of the last renewals here have gone across the Channel to France thanks to Pride and Literato, the latter was a winner for the Summer Festivals Betting Guide back in 2007. This year we have two French trained runners in the shape of NEVER ON SUNDAY and ALPINE ROSE. Surprisingly neither Aidan O’Brien nor Saeed Bin Suroor has won this race and so CAMPANOLOGIST, FAME AND GLORY and SET SAIL all get a black mark. From a positive trainer angle CITY LEADER, DOCTOR FREEMANTLE and MAWATHEEQ all require respect seeing as they respect Brian Meehan, Sir Michael Stoute and Marcus Tregoning respectively.

With half of all recent winners having been successful last time out DOCTOR FREEMANTLE, MAWATHEEQ, PIPEDREAMER, and TWICE OVER all gain an extra mark while SARISKA couldn’t be ruled out on this trend alone seeing as she finished second in Group 1 company last time out.

The Michael Bell trained runner actually comes into the reckoning on account of being a filly. The fairer sex has won 10 of the last 25 renewals and so along with BARSHIBA and ALPINE ROSE the trio must be respected.

FAME AND GLORY currently heads the market but the favourite doesn’t have a great record here and those that follow in the betting are normally a stronger choice. DOCTOR FREEMANTLE, NEVER ON SUNDAY, MAWATHEEQ and SARISKA would be the logical alternatives. FAME AND GLORY actually gets another black mark when you consider he has been contesting some of the summer’s big races. Along with SARISKA the pair have been running in the best races in their classic year and it wouldn’t be a big surprise were this to prove a bridge too far, well, according to the trends anyway!

SHORTLIST

MAWATHEEQ

NEVER ON SUNDAY

(DOCTOR FREEMANTLE)

CONCLUSION

MAWATHEEQ looks a leading contender for this despite stepping up to Group 1 level for the first time. His trainer saddled Nayef to win this in 2001 and his runner this year comes here after winning the same race as the 2001 hero. That was the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge at Ascot and although there is the danger of getting carried away about a victory in a grade 2 levels below this he does perform best on our trends. He has only seen the race track 3 times this season and that could well count for plenty.

With the French having such a good record here both NEVER ON SUNDAY and ALPINE ROSE come in to consideration. I have opted for the former although in truth there may not be too much in it. He hails from a stable that have won this before and based upon his penultimate start when he finished 3rd at Royal Ascot he has leading claims. You can forget his latest appearance when he could manage only 7th over an insufficient 1m and this return to 10f should see him in a much better light. The other French runner comes here after running on Arc weekend and there is just a little niggle about this coming a bit too soon. She probably has the class to figure as she is a previous Group 1 winner and connections were mulling over running her in the Arc but there’s just something about her that doesn’t sit right for me. Although at 20/1 I suppose you could take a chance!

The final place on the shortlist has gone to DOCTOR FREEMANTLE. A good test is what he wants over this trip and the quicker the ground the better. Conditions are currently ‘good’ at HQ but the forecast suggests it will dry out further and that could play nicely into his hands. His best effort at Group 1 level came when he finished 4th in last year’s Derby and although he’s always perhaps been a little overrated because of that run the signs are that this year he’s starting to find his feet. 3 wins from 4 starts at Group 3 and Group 2 level have earned him a crack at this and with his trainer (Sir Michael Stoute) having a second– to-none record with older horses he would be dangerous to underestimate.

FAME AND GLORY is taken on here as at around 6/4 he looks too skinny, plus his trainer has never won this before and horses that have been running in the big races all season are normally a little vulnerable here. He is clearly good enough to win this (he is the highest rated horse in the field) but after a tough race in Longchamp two weeks ago I’m happy enough to take him on. SARISKA has Mr Fallon in the saddle and drops back to 10f for the first time since winning the Musidora at York in May. She could do with a spot of rain though and is another I’m happy to take on. CAMPANOLOGIST represents team Godolphin but he too hails from a stable that haven’t won this. He ran with credit in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes earlier in the campaign and that race is normally a good pointer for this event. He is solid and reliable but there should be one or two a tad better than him in the field. TWICE OVER wouldn’t be out of this seeing as he finished second last year and after two easy victories at a lesser level his confidence should be sky high for the challenge. He’s not to be underestimated.

Totesport.com CESAREWITCH

Six-year-olds have just about the best record here so the likes of BAHRAIN STORM, SOM TALA, ENJOY THE MOMENT, SERETH, RASLAN and GORDONSVILLE all line up as the right age. The trends tell us that the classic generation and anything older than 10 can be safely taken on. We have no ‘veterans’ going to post this time but in ALANBROOKE and DARLEY SUN we have two three-year-olds that could prove vulnerable.

With national hunt trainers really beginning to dominate here it makes sense to give their runners a bit of extra respect. Philip Hobbs runs FAIR ALONG while David Pipe has three on his side (MAMLOOK, ROYAL RATIONALE and RASLAN). Gary Moore, whose record could be better, runs WOOLFALL TREASURE while SWEETHEART represents the Jamie Poulton yard. Gordon Elliot sends DIRAR across the water along with BAHRAIN STORM who represents another Irish trainer, Patrick Flynn.

The Northumberland Plate, Shergar Cup Stayers, Chester Cup and Ascot Stakes have all contributed to this race in the past and so any horse lining up here who contested one of these races shouldn’t be too far away at the finish. Predictably we have quite a few that contested one, two or even three of these races so to name them all would be a thankless process! However one or two of the key runners would be AJAAN, ELECTROLYSER, SOM TALA, WELLS LYRICAL, KEENES DAY, WOOLFALL TREASURE, ROYAL RATIONALE and AAIM TO PROSPER.

A top 4 finish last time out is normally a really big plus, along with the draw. The draw is massively important with those drawn in stall 17, or higher, the perfect place to be. Those who hit both criteria here are AJAAN, KEENES DAY, WOOLFALL TREASURE, ROYAL RATIONALE, AAIME TO PROSPER, DARLEY SUN, GORDONSVILLE, DAYIA and SWEETHEART.

DARLEY SUN is the current market leader and if history is anything to go by then he could be up against it. The next few in the market however could be the ones to side with so ELECTROLYSER, BAHRAIN STORM, SWINGKEEL FAIR ALONG, MAMLOOK and the recent market mover SERETH all should be fine.

SHORTLIST

KEENES DAY

AJAAN

(WOOLFALL TREASURE)

(ROYAL RATIONALE)

CONCLUSION

Difficult to really work this one out, even with the help of the trends! I found it hard to split KEENES DAY and AJAAN. The former is represented by one of the best flat trainers in this race, Mark Johnston, whilst Ajaan runs for Henry Cecil who has a very, very good record on the Rowley Mile (level stakes profit of £24.36 in the last 5 years). Both have very similar profiles according to the trends but Keenes Day just shades it on account of turning up in two of the key trial races. He has always promised to land a decent prize and way he travels in his races gives him every chance of seeing out the trip. Ajaan has only seen the track 3 times this term but he’s run with credit on each occasion. Although near the top of the weights that shouldn’t be an issue in a race where those rated 91-100 normally go well.

Next on the list comes the very interesting WOOLFALL TREASURE. Although his trainer Gary Moore could boast a better record here (0-0-6) there is no denying that his runner this year, who has the assistance of Ryan Moore, ticks plenty of boxes. Having run in a key trial (Ascot Stakes), he not only finished 2nd on his last start but he is well berthed in box 21. He has a couple of victories over hurdles to his name so there is every chance the trip shouldn’t be an issue (although we can’t know 100%) and after a very pleasing trends performance the 20/1 that is widely available looks fair to me.

The final place on the shortlist goes to the David Pipe trained ROYAL RATIONALE. Mamlook ran third for the stable last year (and could go well again) and the trainer clearly knows what it takes for this race. He hasn’t been seen on the level since finishing third at Royal Ascot and from a mark just 3lb higher than that there seems no reason why he won’t be in the mix. Another who is currently trading at around 20/1 he meets the same trends as Woolfall Treasure and should go well.

Of the remainder, all the talk has been about DARLEY SUN and on the form book he is certainly well in. 5/1 is tight enough though and Irish raider BAHRAIN STORM emerges as much more a likely danger. Although out the first 4 on his last start that came in his prep race for this over an inadequate trip and the way he hacked up in the Galway Hurdle in July he would be the one for me against the trends.