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Saturday 17th October

6.05 CAULFIELD – Australia

Always nice to bring a touch of overseas action to the service and in the relatively early hours of Saturday morning the Caulfield Cup takes place down under. Worth a cool £750,000+ to the winner both KIRKLEES and CIMA DE TRIOMPHE go to post for British racing and both look to have leading claims. Godolphin won this twelve months ago with All The Good and KIRKLEES couldn’t be lining up in any better form after 3 straight wins. However, I’m not 100% on him over this 1m 4f trip as his latest victory at Kempton was run at a crawl. His stamina will be severely tested in this and I’d sooner back Luca Cumani’s CIMA DE TRIOMPHE. Reading the papers this last week there is plenty of positive news about this one’s chances and the stable certainly know how to get one ready for a tough assignment in Oz. His form this year is perfectly respectable and looks set for a huge run. Of the others in the line up; DAFFODIL has solid claims for trainer Kevin Gray while the rapidly improving ALLEZ WONDER (who finished behind Daffod earlier this year) is chasing a remarkable quick fire hat-trick and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see the Bart Cummings inmate figure at the finish.

CIMA DE TRIOMPHE

1.50 Newmarket

A cracking start to one of the best days in British racing. An open event judged by the betting but ASHRAM just shades it at this stage. He’s had a pretty busy campaign seeing as he started in the 2000 Guineas here in May but it’s been in the last couple of months that’s he kicked on by winning at Kempton and Newbury. As a previous course and distance winner we know he acts on the track and in truth he shouldn’t be far away. MAIN AIM has a bit to prove after a couple of below par recent efforts so I couldn’t be backing him in his current mood while OUQBA has maybe had his day in the sun when winning the Jersey at Royal Ascot. That said he is useful over this 7f trip and shouldn’t be underestimated. The other one I would be interested in though is Jim Bolger’s CUIS GHAIRE. She hasn’t been seen since running down the field in the Irish 1000 Guineas. We can forget that run though as she would have hated the ground and back on a quick surface here she’ll be at home. Her 2nd in the English 1000 Guineas makes her the one to beat for my money and if equally effective over the 7f trip should be the one.

CUIS GHAIRE

2.25 Newmarket

A good looking renewal of the top juvenile race of the year. STEINBECK has been the talking horse at Ballydoyle despite only stepping foot on the track once, and that was way back in May. He won his maiden well and ‘could be anything’ which will explain why bookmakers are taking no chances by offering just 7/2 about him. Fellow Irish raider CHABLA runs his last race in the colours of Lady O’Reilly before switching to the blue of Godolphin. If you believe everything you read then Jim Bolger rates him up there with his recent winners of this. And when you mention the names of Teofilo, New Approach and Intense Focus then he must be pretty smart! For me though I think the domestic team have some useful juveniles of their own and XTENSION, SILVER GRECIAN and DICK TURPIN, not to mention BUZZWORD all look capable of running big races. DICK TURPIN is better than he showed at Longchamp last time and Richard Hughes has been on record to say that he wasn’t happy with the ride he gave his mount that day. He is quoted at 14/1 which I find a huge price, cracking e/w value surely? SILVER GRECIAN probably came out best in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster in September considering he was conceding 3lbs to the winner and was beaten just 1l into 3rd while XTENSION has done nothing wrong in all 3 career starts thus far and is a horse I really like. He’d be much shorter for next year’s 2000 Guineas if trained by a Stoute or Gosden etc… and there is no reason why he won’t go well. In summary this is probably a race to watch and enjoy but 14/1 looks more than fair about the Hannon horse.

DICK TURPIN e/w

3.00 Newmarket

A decent sized field for the final Group 1 action of the season from Newmarket.

From an age perspective PIPEDREAMER and BARSHIBA look out of this seeing as they’re five-year-olds and the dominate age groups in recent years have been the younger three and four-year olds, which make up the rest of the field.

Two of the last renewals here have gone across the Channel to France thanks to Pride and Literato, the latter was a winner for this update back in 2007. This year we have two French trained runners in the shape of NEVER ON SUNDAY and ALPINE ROSE. Surprisingly neither Aidan O’Brien nor Saeed Bin Suroor has won this race and so CAMPANOLOGIST, FAME AND GLORY and SET SAIL all get a black mark. From a positive trainer angle CITY LEADER, DOCTOR FREEMANTLE and MAWATHEEQ all require respect seeing as they respect Brian Meehan, Sir Michael Stoute and Marcus Tregoning respectively.

With half of all recent winners having been successful last time out DOCTOR FREEMANTLE, MAWATHEEQ, PIPEDREAMER, and TWICE OVER all gain an extra mark while SARISKA couldn’t be ruled out on this trend alone seeing as she finished second in Group 1 company last time out.

The Michael Bell trained runner actually comes into the reckoning on account of being a filly. The fairer sex has won 10 of the last 25 renewals and so along with BARSHIBA and ALPINE ROSE the trio must be respected.

FAME AND GLORY currently heads the market but the favourite doesn’t have a great record here and those that follow in the betting are normally a stronger choice. DOCTOR FREEMANTLE, NEVER ON SUNDAY, MAWATHEEQ and SARISKA would be the logical alternatives. FAME AND GLORY actually gets another black mark when you consider he has been contesting some of the summer’s big races. Along with SARISKA the pair have been running in the best races in their classic year and it wouldn’t be a big surprise were this to prove a bridge too far, well, according to the trends anyway!

SHORTLIST

MAWATHEEQ

NEVER ON SUNDAY

(DOCTOR FREEMANTLE)

CONCLUSION

MAWATHEEQ looks a leading contender for this despite stepping up to Group 1 level for the first time. His trainer saddled Nayef to win this in 2001 and his runner this year comes here after winning the same race as the 2001 hero. That was the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge at Ascot and although there is the danger of getting carried away about a victory in a grade 2 levels below this he does perform best on our trends. He has only seen the race track 3 times this season and that could well count for plenty.

With the French having such a good record here both NEVER ON SUNDAY and ALPINE ROSE come in to consideration. I have opted for the former although in truth there may not be too much in it. He hails from a stable that have won this before and based upon his penultimate start when he finished 3rd at Royal Ascot he has leading claims. You can forget his latest appearance when he could manage only 7th over an insufficient 1m and this return to 10f should see him in a much better light. The other French runner comes here after running on Arc weekend and there is just a little niggle about this coming a bit too soon. She probably has the class to figure as she is a previous Group 1 winner and connections were mulling over running her in the Arc but there’s just something about her that doesn’t sit right for me. Although at 20/1 I suppose you could take a chance!

The final place on the shortlist has gone to DOCTOR FREEMANTLE. A good test is what he wants over this trip and the quicker the ground the better. Conditions are currently ‘good’ at HQ but the forecast suggests it will dry out further and that could play nicely into his hands. His best effort at Group 1 level came when he finished 4th in last year’s Derby and although he’s always perhaps been a little overrated because of that run the signs are that this year he’s starting to find his feet. 3 wins from 4 starts at Group 3 and Group 2 level have earned him a crack at this and with his trainer (Sir Michael Stoute) having a second– to-none record with older horses he would be dangerous to underestimate.

FAME AND GLORY is taken on here as at around 6/4 he looks too skinny, plus his trainer has never won this before and horses that have been running in the big races all season are normally a little vulnerable here. He is clearly good enough to win this (he is the highest rated horse in the field) but after a tough race in Longchamp two weeks ago I’m happy enough to take him on. SARISKA has Mr Fallon in the saddle and drops back to 10f for the first time since winning the Musidora at York in May. She could do with a spot of rain though and is another I’m happy to take on. CAMPANOLOGIST represents team Godolphin but he too hails from a stable that haven’t won this. He ran with credit in the Rose Of Lancaster Stakes earlier in the campaign and that race is normally a good pointer for this event. He is solid and reliable but there should be one or two a tad better than him in the field. TWICE OVER wouldn’t be out of this seeing as he finished second last year and after two easy victories at a lesser level his confidence should be sky high for the challenge. He’s not to be underestimated.

3.25 Catterick

First impressions of this sprint were that PAVERSHOOZ would be very tough to beat back down to a quick 5f. However his performance last time out perhaps signalled that he’s had enough for one season and although I’m tempted to put him up because he should win this the fact remains that his latest effort was very flat. With this in mind attention turns to FATHOM FIVE who won’t be allowed to run if the ground is deemed too fast but he represents the in-from Chris Wall stable and is back down to his last winning mark. Pretty lightly raced for the season he could be set for a profitable end of season.

FATHOM FIVE

3.40 Newmarket

Six-year-olds have just about the best record here so the likes of BAHRAIN STORM, SOM TALA, ENJOY THE MOMENT, SERETH, RASLAN and GORDONSVILLE all line up as the right age. The trends tell us that the classic generation and anything older than 10 can be safely taken on. We have no ‘veterans’ going to post this time but in ALANBROOKE and DARLEY SUN we have two three-year-olds that could prove vulnerable.

With national hunt trainers really beginning to dominate here it makes sense to give their runners a bit of extra respect. Philip Hobbs runs FAIR ALONG while David Pipe has three on his side (MAMLOOK, ROYAL RATIONALE and RASLAN). Gary Moore, whose record could be better, runs WOOLFALL TREASURE while SWEETHEART represents the Jamie Poulton yard. Gordon Elliot sends DIRAR across the water along with BAHRAIN STORM who represents another Irish trainer, Patrick Flynn.

The Northumberland Plate, Shergar Cup Stayers, Chester Cup and Ascot Stakes have all contributed to this race in the past and so any horse lining up here who contested one of these races shouldn’t be too far away at the finish. Predictably we have quite a few that contested one, two or even three of these races so to name them all would be a thankless process! However one or two of the key runners would be AJAAN, ELECTROLYSER, SOM TALA, WELLS LYRICAL, KEENES DAY, WOOLFALL TREASURE, ROYAL RATIONALE and AAIM TO PROSPER.

A top 4 finish last time out is normally a really big plus, along with the draw. The draw is massively important with those drawn in stall 17, or higher, the perfect place to be. Those who hit both criteria here are AJAAN, KEENES DAY, WOOLFALL TREASURE, ROYAL RATIONALE, AAIME TO PROSPER, DARLEY SUN, GORDONSVILLE, DAYIA and SWEETHEART.

DARLEY SUN is the current market leader and if history is anything to go by then he could be up against it. The next few in the market however could be the ones to side with so ELECTROLYSER, BAHRAIN STORM, SWINGKEEL FAIR ALONG, MAMLOOK and the recent market mover SERETH all should be fine.

SHORTLIST

KEENES DAY

AJAAN

(WOOLFALL TREASURE)

(ROYAL RATIONALE)

CONCLUSION

Difficult to really work this one out, even with the help of the trends! I found it hard to split KEENES DAY and AJAAN. The former is represented by one of the best flat trainers in this race, Mark Johnston, whilst Ajaan runs for Henry Cecil who has a very, very good record on the Rowley Mile (level stakes profit of £24.36 in the last 5 years). Both have very similar profiles according to the trends but Keenes Day just shades it on account of turning up in two of the key trial races. He has always promised to land a decent prize and way he travels in his races gives him every chance of seeing out the trip. Ajaan has only seen the track 3 times this term but he’s run with credit on each occasion. Although near the top of the weights that shouldn’t be an issue in a race where those rated 91-100 normally go well.

Next on the list comes the very interesting WOOLFALL TREASURE. Although his trainer Gary Moore could boast a better record here (0-0-6) there is no denying that his runner this year, who has the assistance of Ryan Moore, ticks plenty of boxes. Having run in a key trial (Ascot Stakes), he not only finished 2nd on his last start but he is well berthed in box 21. He has a couple of victories over hurdles to his name so there is every chance the trip shouldn’t be an issue (although we can’t know 100%) and after a very pleasing trends performance the 20/1 that is widely available looks fair to me.

The final place on the shortlist goes to the David Pipe trained ROYAL RATIONALE. Mamlook ran third for the stable last year (and could go well again) and the trainer clearly knows what it takes for this race. He hasn’t been seen on the level since finishing third at Royal Ascot and from a mark just 3lb higher than that there seems no reason why he won’t be in the mix. Another who is currently trading at around 20/1 he meets the same trends as Woolfall Treasure and should go well.

Of the remainder, all the talk has been about DARLEY SUN and on the form book he is certainly well in. 5/1 is tight enough though and Irish raider BAHRAIN STORM emerges as much more a likely danger. Although out the first 4 on his last start that came in his prep race for this over an inadequate trip and the way he hacked up in the Galway Hurdle in July he would be the one for me against the trends.

4.15 Newmarket

Plenty of these are open to improvement after winning their respective maidens but they’ll have to be pretty useful if they are to lower the colours of TABASSUM. Sir Michael Stoute’s runner made a huge impression when winning the Group 3 Oh So Sharp Stakes over this course and distance two weeks ago and there seems little point in trying to over complicate things here. Yes something could well improve past her but at this stage a 4l success at Group 3 level makes her the one to beat.

TABASSUM

4.50 Newmarket

The fact Ryan Moore has chosen CRYSTAL CAPELLA over AVE suggests she’s feeling no ill effects from a tough race on Arc weekend and if that’s the case then she could prove tough to beat. On the face of it her fifth placed finish that day was a tad disappointing but she remains a filly of the highest order (just look at her defeat of Dar Re Mi on her penultimate outing) and this Group 2 event is well within her compass. HIGH HEELED had the beating of AVE when the pair last met but the runner-up has improved since and you’d think that they’d both be pretty evenly matched. The one I would be interested in taking on Crystal Cappela with is the French runner, ASHALANDA. She has raced just 3 times in her career, all this season, and you’d think connections wouldn’t be bringing her over unless they meant business. Obviously we don’t know too much about her but her profile just demands respect and she’d be the one I’d go for against the likely favourite. BAILA ME ran well on her first start for Godolphin last month and would be a danger if the ground was maybe just a little more forgiving.

CRYSTAL CAPELLA

ASHALANDA

5.25 Newmarket

I really like OASIS KNIGHT here but he’s difficult to make a proper case for. I just think that Marcus Tregoning’s horses are worth keeping on your side at the end of the season considering they have been missing for most of high summer but maybe this is a bit too much for him. AKMAL has been in cracking form in rattling up 3 on the spin and you’d think he’d confirm recent form with NEHAAM despite that one running a blinder last time out and who should come on a bit for it too. STARFALA deserves a decent prize but this looks tougher than her recent start in the Park Hill Stakes. I think Akmal can be taken on and slightly by default we have landed with URBAN POET. He cost a cool $2.9m back in the day and so far some rather below par efforts have been bookended by two quite impressive wins. If the later is to be believed then he could well have the makings of a Cup horse next term but it’s certainly not out of the question that he can figure in this. Don’t worry that Frankie isn’t onboard, 8st 4lbs is a bit beyond him this days!

URBAN POET