Summer Festivals Extended Service – 31st Oct 09
Saturday 31st October
12.20 – Newmarket
Sir Michael Stoute’s filly REVERED has the best form on offer after an encouraging debut in a 15 runner Salisbury maiden earlier this month. This half-sister to the Pretty Polly winner Promising Lead and the dual Group 3 winner Visit is entitled to come on for the run and ought to prove difficult to beat in a field of un-raced fillies. But there lies the problem, there could be some potentially very smart fillies lurking amongst them. This particular race has a history of throwing up some smart performers, so even if you decide to give it a swerve, make sure you watch the race and keep a note of those that ran respectably in defeat. So who are those potential stars? Looking at breeding, ALICE CULLEN is one to keep an eye on. She may find things happening too quickly for her tomorrow but she is from one of Peter Harris’ stronger breeding lines and could turn out to be a nice middle distance prospect for next season. CALL TO REASON has a nice looking pedigree and being by Pivotal should appreciate the deluge of rain that has been forecast tomorrow. CHEERFULLY has class right the way through her pedigree although it does suggest that she will be a better filly next year, but being by Sadlers’ Wells she should appreciate the ground. COUNTENANCE DIVINE, another Pivotal filly, is out of a decent juvenile winner, so could well know her job first time out and could prove a respectable each-way bet if the price is right. FASHION INSIDER has a dirt pedigree through and through, but she is a full sister to some classy animals in the States so it wouldn’t come as a surprise if she turned out to be well above average. PEACEFUL SOUL is another with an American influence who is also related to some useful animals on her home soil. Her trainer David Lanigan is a man to follow in my opinion as I have been very impressed with him this season. TIGER COURT is out of a half sister to the top class Ouija Board so could be a useful filly if she has inherited any of her ability but her half brothers and sisters haven’t set the world alight just yet.
SHORTLIST
REVERED
COUNTENANCE DIVINE
FASHION INSIDER
PEACEFUL SOUL
12.55 – Newmarket
The second division of this fillies’ maiden doesn’t look any easier. SCORN sets the standard of those to have run after posting a very encouraging effort on her debut at Salisbury. Despite her close relatives needing time, she looked more than capable at this stage of her career, so I firmly expect her to be up there in the firing line. Challengers? ACQUAINTED has a very Mark Johnston influenced pedigree being by Shamardal out of his listed and Group 3 winner Love Everlasting. She will probably need the run tomorrow but she is certainly one to keep an eye on in the future. FIELD DAY looks more than capable of making her presence felt with some top class blood flowing through her veins. FLOTATION, a half-sister to the useful Cruel Sea, can’t be overlooked as although she ought to be better next year, there are juvenile winners in her close family. PARK VIEW has an interesting pedigree but the dam’s other four progeny haven’t really sparkled so she would appear to have a bit to prove. PERFECT NOTE has to be respected with Godolphin amongst the winners already this week especially as she is bred to go all the way to the top, so it will be interesting to see if she is supported tomorrow. Whilst on the topic of top class breeding, how about SAFINA? By Pivotal, she is out of the prolific Russian Rhythm, so she could well turn out to be a top class miler next season. Because of that she is likely to be rather short in the betting tomorrow and may not be everyone’s cup of tea. Yes, she is bred to win the guineas but I would want to see some evidence of that before taking too short a price but she is certainly one to watch out for. PERCE is a first foal out of the decent La Persiana and could prove the dark horse of the race as she may well go off at a decent price.
SHORTLIST
SCORN
SAFINA
PERFECT NOTE
PERCE
1.30 – Newmarket
ANHAR has a pedigree to die for and went a small way to rewarding his £950,000 price tag with an encouraging debut success at Nottingham earlier this month. Having watched the race again, I feel that he will come on bundles for the run. He looked rather inexperienced to me so the fact that he was still able to get his head in front, speaks volumes. Henry Cecil won this race in 2007 with twice over and I have MINGUN BELL down as a big challenger. He had been ticking along nicely this season, winning two of his first four starts, before the wheels came off at Epsom last time. I don’t think the forcing tactics suited his style, so i think Eddie Ahern will get him some cover tomorrow. Richard Hannon is also a recent winner of this race and there is a lot to like about his runner PRIVATE STORY. A debut winner in August, he ran another solid race when runner-up in a decent looking Newbury conditions race before an unplaced effort in the Goffs Million at the Curragh. He may have only finished 10th but he was only 6L behind the winner Shakespearean confirming that it was a better performance that his finishing position suggests. With the Godolphin horses going so well at the moment, I am willing to take a chance that ANHAR has plenty of improvement in him but I am fearful of the other two.
SHORTLIST
ANHAR
1.40 – Ayr
Even though COLLATERAL DAMAGE was beaten off his revised mark at Southwell last time, I still see him as the most likely winner here. A mile is ideal and he handles soft ground, so whilst he is in this vein of form I believe it will take a big effort to lower his colours. OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY will appreciate the cut in the ground and off his current mark of 86 should prove the main challenger. Depending on how they are priced up, it may be worth putting them both in a reversed forecast.
SHORTLIST
COLLATERAL DAMAGE
OSTEOPATHIC REMEDY
2.05 – Newmarket
There are plenty with question marks hanging over their heads in this open looking handicap but the one I am interested in is INFIRAAD. He looked a very progressive colt earlier in the campaign, his best performance when beating the prolific Firebet at Newmarket in May. Something was clearly amiss when he was subsequently well beaten in the Jersey Stakes as he has been on the sidelines ever since. Although he has won twice on good to firm ground I believe that he probably needs an easier surface and as that is what he gets tomorrow, I can see him running a big race as long as his set back hasn’t left any long term marks. Godolphin’s pair of LIBERATION and SECRECY deserves a second look with their horses going so well. The former looked progressive last year but has only made one appearance this season when trailing in well beaten in a sales race at Newmarket in April, so he may just need the run tomorrow. The later has lost little in defeat on his two starts this season and it is not hard to see why he is the pick of Dettori, even though he was behind his stable mate at Ascot last season. From three unexposed animals to one that is well known to all, BENANDONNER. He hinted that he is coming back into form when finishing 3rd at Redcar last time and off a 2lbs lower mark tomorrow, he could well teach the young upstarts a thing or two. FASTNET STORM was a game winner at Nottingham two weeks ago but I would want to be taking him on as he is up another 6lbs and ultimately better of 10f. At a price I might consider MARAJAA as although he is perhaps a few pounds too high in the handicap, trip and ground conditions look ideal.
SHORTLIST
INFIRAAD
BENANDONNER
MARAJAA
2.35 – Newmarket
I was a big fan of SHAWEEL last season backing him to win the Gimcrack and the National Stakes. The former was won with consummate ease but my money was lost in Ireland although he ran a huge race, only losing out on the bob to the top-class Mastercraftsman. So, I had big ideas for him this season but he was hugely disappointing in the Greenham and didn’t look anything special in the French Guineas. I think it is too early to say that he hasn’t trained on but I think his busy juvenile season followed by a trip to Dubai took their toll, early season. He has been given a long break over the summer, so I would be hopeful that he can bounce back. CITY STYLE is another that looked progressive as a juvenile, finishing 4th to Donativum in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile before winning twice at Nad Al Sheba at the start of the year. He didn’t run a bad race on his sole start at Haydock in May so even though Dettori has plumped for SHAWEEL, I wouldn’t be too quick to rule him out. PRINCE OF DANCE defends a 100% record after victories at Newbury and Salisbury. He doesn’t have the experience of all of his rivals but after suffering a fractured pelvis, he showed a really tough attitude when winning on his reappearance. As I have said all season, finding a genuine horse is half the battle, so if he improves as expected he could well be up to the job. PLUM PUDDING has been consistent all season, winning the Bunbury Cup in the process, but does he find a mile too far? BUSHMAN has run some nice races in defeat this season but I think he will need to improve tomorrow.
SHORTLIST
PRINCE OF DANCE
3.10 – Newmarket
Run this race five times and I think you would get five different results, so I think it is one to watch rather than get too involved with. True to form, let’s have a look at MARIE DE MEDICI first. After two respectable efforts over the summer, she got off the mark in fine style at Leicester earlier this month and followed that up with a very respectable effort in a Deauville Group 3 last week. A repeat of that performance will see her go close tomorrow but this is tougher race with plenty of unexposed fillies’ looking capable of improving. The well bred BINT ALMATAR certainly fits that bill after a pleasing debut victory at Nottingham whilst CLARIETTA certainly can’t be ruled out if building on her 4 1/2L defeat in the May Hill Stakes. NURTURE is still a maiden but ran Shakespearean to 1/4L in the Goffs Million so can’t be ruled out on that form. THRILL gave the impression that this step up to a mile shouldn’t pose her any problems when winning cosily at Salisbury earlier this month. The final filly to catch my attention is TIMEPIECE who really caught my eye when winning at Lingfield earlier this month. It looked a decent race on paper so the fact that she still looked rather inexperienced suggests that she is a filly who has plenty of improvement in her.
SHORTLIST
CLARIETTA
NURTURE
THRILL
TIMEPIECE
3.45 – Newmarket
There hasn’t been a three-year-old winner of this race since 2001 so history suggests that PRINCE SIEGFRIED and LAAHEB have something to prove. Godolphin’s runner arrives here on a hat-trick following wins at Newmarket and Ayr and ignoring that age trend, he looks the one to beat. Ten furlongs will be ideal but more importantly he will handle the conditions even if the heavens open. LAAHEB needs to carry on improving to trouble him but I wouldn’t rule it out. He handles any type of ground and judged on his relatively easy success at Pontefract last time, looks more than capable of throwing down a challenge in receipt of 4lbs from the Godolphin runner. HEBRIDEAM can’t be discounted simply because of connections but he was disappointing in the Darley Stakes a fortnight ago and will need to bounce back. PERKS and SUITS ME both look to be struggling for form so that leaves SAPHIRA’S FIRE. I might be a little biased as I backed her on her second start to win last season’s Pretty Polly. I think it is fair to say that she comes up a little short at Group 1 level but she has posted sound efforts in the past two Group 2 Pride Stakes, so I believe she will relish this drop in class and in receipt of weight from all but one of her rivals, I might just be tempted to back here if the price is right.
SHORTLIST
SAPHIRA’S FIRE
4.15 – Newmarket
This race tends to favour those towards the head of the betting, so it will be interesting to see how they price it up tomorrow. Henry Candy won this race in 2006, so BENDED KNEE could prove a dark horse down the bottom of the weights. After an encouraging effort over 7f at Chepstow, she found things happening too quickly for her at Windsor last time so it is no surprise to see her stepped back up in trip. PERFECT SILENCE looks to be a real 7f specialist and I wouldn’t say she is too harshly treated at the moment and further rain shouldn’t pose too many problems. REGENERATION has been consistent all season but looks in the grip of the handicapper now as does KORALEVA TECTONA. It is possible that SWIFT CHAP is also as high as he wants to be but I was encouraged by his effort at Leicester on Monday when despite carrying a further 7lbs, he stuck on gamely to finish second once he had been headed.
SHORTLIST
BENDED KNEE
PERFECT SILENCE
SWIFT CHAP
5.35 – Kempton
FLOUNCING has run two nice races in defeat recently and surely it is only a matter of time before she is winning? INSIDE TRACK possibly sets the standard but I still fancy William Haggas’ filly to lead them home.
SHORTLIST
FLOUNCING
7.05 – Kempton
I understand that LINDY HOP is expected to run well here after missing most of the season through injury. After four months off, she offered signs of encouragement when finishing 6th at Lingfield on her reappearance. Although, she was never nearer than at the finish, she stuck on gamely in the closing stages and should improve for the experience.
SHORTLIST
LINDY HOP
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