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No firms have gone up on the Wincanton races as yet but they look tricky and I’ve never been a fan of betting in chases at that track as those three fences in quick succession in the home straight are so pivotal with one error ruining all chance. Although this is a jumps-based service, I do feel it is worth getting involved ante-post in the Breeders’ Cup Mile which takes place on Saturday and I’ve also given my first thoughts on the Paddy Power Gold Cup highlighting two horses I have taken an early chance on though I do stress neither is a confirmed runner as yet.

BREEDERS’ CUP MILE

I will cover the best of the Saturday Breeders’ Cup races in Friday’s email but the one horse I did want to get involved in before then was GLADIATORUS (each-way) who I think could continue to shorten. I am guessing whether he will start bigger over here at 12s or the American PMU so have had a half stake now at 12s and will have the other half near the off depending on which price is bigger. Don’t be worried that Dettori is on the 2000 Guineas runner-up as Gladiatorus is Ahmed Ajtebi’s ride and I think the whole key to this horse, apparently the best horse in the world after he won on Dubai World Cup night if you believe that, is a two-bend, left-handed track as his point-and-run style of racing made him there to be shot at on straight courses and all those bends will suit his racing style ideally plus I think Ajtebi had been getting the fractions wrong which made his performances look all the more disappointing. And is there a more in-form stable in the world right now than that of Saeed Bin Suroor who came within an ace of also adding the Melbourne Cup with a rank outsider to their endless barrage of winners in recent weeks? Those first few runs Gladiatorus had for Godolphin can easily be forgiven as the yard weren’t firing at the time and the horse was settling into new conditions having been trained in the UAE by Mohammed Bin Shafya and although it was a weak Group 1 race he won Italy last time, he did look back on awfully good terms with himself and rates as decent each-way value at a double-figure odds here.

Goldikova is a brilliant filly and could blow these away again as she did in last year’s race and in the Prix Jacques le Marois which was the best performance of the Flat season for my money but that is reflected in odds of around 5/4. Then again, I wouldn’t wanting to be having the mortgage on her coming off a long odds-on defeat on Arc weekend where I simply think she hared off way too fast dropping back to 7f plus she has been given the outside draw (11 of 11). The stable also say she wasn’t right at Longchamp and are talking about winning this race three times let alone twice so confidence is high in the camp. I’m not sure that Delegator truly stays a hard-run mile as he has come to win his race three times in Group 1 company this season and was seen off in the final furlong on each occasion. This turning track could help in that respect but it does nag away at me. Zacinto is just too short for me as I reckon Rip Van Winkle won more cosily than the winning margin suggested in the QEII. Yes he is open to more improvement but around 6/1 doesn’t excite me about the fourth-highest rated European in the race. The Americans do not look up to much and I will be disappointed if this doesn’t go to Europe.

In summary I have backed Gladiatorus each-way at the general odds of 12/1 but I think I will also have a little interest on Goldikova to beat him in an Exacta as I will be left frustrated if he beats the rest pointless only to be outclassed by one of the best fillies we’ve ever seen.

PADDY POWER GOLD CUP

At this stage my two fancies are NORTHERN ALLIANCE (win market) and BARBERS SHOP (each-way) and I’ve personally taken a chance with both (the former to win at much bigger odds on Betfair than the best offer of 12/1 with the books and the latter each-way @ 16/1). Whether you want to take this risk is up to you of course because it is a gamble they will run so I’m just letting you know what I have done to give you the option of whether you want to follow me in or not just like I did with Quevega for the Mares Hurdle last season when we didn’t know for sure she would run but I kept informing you week after week I was backing her. And it is a gamble.

The Nicholls pair of Poquelin and Chapoturgeon head the market for what doesn’t look a great running of the race but I think the trainer hit the nail on the head with Poquelin that they may have lost the ‘Paddy Power’ when winning at the October Meeting where he won cosily but that was not lost on the handicapper raising him 10lbs. The extra distance helped his jumping that day but I still can’t get it out of my head that his jumping went to pot in the Grand Annual and a really competitive handicap could catch him out plus he went backwards after making a winning debut last season. Of the Nicholls duo I prefer Chapoturgeon’s chance and he did us a big favour hacking up in the Jewson when we were on ante-post at 12s. He was absolutely singing that day and could be called the winner a long way from home but he will have to be in exactly the same kind of form and heart to win this off an 18lbs higher mark which is a big hike and a big ‘if’ because he definitely has two ways of running. Given he is owned by David Johnson who has owned the winner of the ‘Paddy Power’ more times than I can remember with all those Pipe horses, I have no doubt that Chapoturgeon has been trained for this race but an 18lbs rise strikes me as a lot and means he only receives 3lbs from Barbers Shop who I would rate as one notch ahead of him on the class ladder.

I’ve taken a chance that Barbers Shop will run and have backed him each-way at 16/1 and reckon he will start about 7/1 on the day if given the go-ahead. Rated 156, I actually think he could still be about 7lbs well in given that he was not beaten far in this race last season by Imperial Commander who is now rated 165 and this pair pulled a massive 17 lengths clear of the rest. I’ve already backed him at juicy prices on Betfair for the Ryanair Chase during the summer taking the view it would be madness to run him in the Gold Cup again after last season’s effort where he was outclassed and didn’t stay and also because I believe he could be a real Cheltenham 2m4f specialist which is what you want for a Ryanair horse (he was also second in the Jewson over course and distance). My main worry about his possible non-participation in the Paddy Power Gold Cup is that Ascot have changed the conditions to their (former) intermediate chase over 2m3½f the following week opening it up to all-comers and has already attracted Voy Por Ustedes so Henderson could be tempted to head there instead receiving over a stone from Alan King’s charge but hopefully for the sake of my gamble they will go for the more prestigious pot over a course and distance they know he loves. If he does run, he will be at the top end of the weights but Half Free, Bradbury Star and Dublin Flyer have all won off top weight plus Cyfor Malta won off 11st 9lbs and Our Vic 11st 7lbs and Barbers Shop may not be top weight as I can a scenario which means Our Vic will run to keep the weights down for Chapoturgeon in the same ownership. Second-season chasers usually win this race but Barbers Shop is still on the up so that doesn’t concern me he is a third-season chaser, in fact, he has only had eight chase starts in his career so can be categaorised a second-season chaser in terms of races run. If Barbers Shop runs, I can’t not seeing him running a big race hence the each-way angle just in case one of the second-season novices turns out to be thrown in.

The other horse I’ve backed and taking a gamble he runs is a second-season chaser in Northern Alliance. Yes, I know the Irish have not won this race since 1980 but I can’t think of any sensible reason why that is the case so I am treating it as somewhat of a red herring and Tony Martin’s charge won the Kerry National with something up his sleeve for my liking as he was given a typically patient ride by Ruby Walsh to be produced at the final fence. Before that race I could sense a really strong feeling that connections felt they had a well-handicapped horse on their hands and so it proved and given his produce-them-late style of racing, he may well still be ahead of the handicapper and the Irish have already won the first big handicap chase in Britain with their only runner at 33/1 at Ascot last weekend. Some will point to the fact that he was a slightly disappointing fourth when well-fancied for the Jewson last March as a downside to his chance arguing Cheltenham may not be his course but the stable’s horses just weren’t firing at the time and I am inclined to draw a line under that. Tony Martin has yet to commit him to the race stating he also had two races at Down Royal under consideration but I noted he didn’t enter Northern Alliance for either of those races on Monday so reckon there has to be a strong chance he will take his chance at Cheltenham. If he does run I would be disappointed if Ruby doesn’t prefer him to Poquelin (Timmy Murphy will be claimed for Chapoturgeon by his owner) and then we are looking at the favourite or second-favourite.

Of the others, I have time for Tarotino’s chance but I am not sure there is much meat on the bone in his odds and I do prefer some Cheltenham experience in the bag for this race. I thought Master Medic did the job well at Ascot last weekend and will enjoy the step up in trip and Shining Gale ran a nice trial at the same meeting and can see them going well but the others don’t overly interest me. I fancied Tranquil Sea last weekend as I argued that first time up was the time to catch him so I am not sure he will progress from that, Tatenen struck me as soft last season with no scope for improvement (he looked so weak behind the saddle before the Arkle) and Bible Lord gets found out in these races but jumped better for a change of jockey when winning at Wetherby last week.

In summary, I am happy to take the risk for my own personal betting to support two unconfirmed runners in Northern Alliance (win) and Barbers Shop (each-way) but am reticent to say go an back them yourself as I don’t want to put you on potential non-runners so repeat that I wanted to tell you what I have done to give you the option of whether you want to follow me in.