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THE BREEDER’S CUP from Santa Anita

Friday 6th November 2009

8:35 – Breeders´ Cup Marathon Stakes (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 1m6f

MUHANNAK won this race last year but it has to be said he went into the race in much better form than he does this year. However, a deeper look at the form suggests that he has been laid out for this. He was given two pipe-openers at Kempton and Wolverhampton before running respectably without ever troubling the principals in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes. He can be a bit quirky nowadays but he has been there and done it, so has to be respected. MASTERY looked good when winning the St Leger, beating FATHER TIME 3 1/2L, but I am slightly worried by the form of the race. There didn’t appear to be a great deal of depth in the race, so at around 2/1 at present, I think he is worth taking on. I quite like the look of MAN OF IRON who looks to have been campaigned in Ireland with a view to be spot on in this race. He has won two of his last three starts over an extended 1m2f at Dundalk, with his only defeat coming in a Group 3 behind Mastercraftsman. He is yet to tackle this sort of trip but Aidan O’Brien had plenty of options so the fact that he has plumped for this race suggests to me that he feels this son of Giant’s Causeway is up to the job. I see NITE LIGHT as the main American challenge. He ran a belter over an inadequate trip in a Group 2 at Hawthorne at the start of last month, so arrived here at the top of his game and I have no doubt he will improve for the step up in trip. The nine-year-old CLOUDY’S KNIGHT seems a big price at 12/1 given that he has won two Group 3s on his two starts this term, especially as he seems to get on very well with this rider.

Selection – MAN OF IRON

9:08 – Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (2yo Fillies) 1m

This is probably the toughest race on Friday’s card. I was at Newmarket when LILLIE LANGTRY won a valuable sales race and I have to admit, I was thoroughly impressed. Okay, the opposition wasn’t anything close to what she will face on Friday but from a less than ideal draw in stall 7, she disposed of the opposition with consummate ease and was value for a good deal further than the official margin, had she needed to dig deeper, and on that evidence I see her as a strong Classic contender next season. The betting suggests that the unbeaten HOUSE OF GRACE will prove her biggest challenger but I am not so sure. She holds HATHEER following victory at Keeneland last month but she was all out to get up by a nose, suggesting that will need to improve again if she is to keep that 100% record intact. The German raider, JUNIA TEPZIA, also defends a perfect start. She was a very impressive winner on her first start in Italy and confirmed the promise shown by winning a listed contest with equal ease. The booking of Kieren Fallon looks a massive positive as he has plenty of experience when it comes to American tracks but her box 11 draw is a big concern. LA NEZ is much better drawn in stall 5. She certainly wasn’t stopping when winning over 7f success at the track last month and looks primed to run a big race, with the step up in trip looking to suit.

Selection – LILLIE LANGTRY

9:45 – Grey Goose Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Pro-Ride) 1m110y

The course and distance winning BLIND LUCK looks set to start favourite and it is easy to see why following her 2 1/2L victory over ALWAYS A PRINCESS in a Group 1 here last month. After making the running Bob Baffert’s runner was no match for the winner, so it will be interesting to see if they employ the same forcing tactics on Friday, although her box 11 draw suggests that she won’t be able to. BLIND LUCK on the other hand has the best of the draw in stall 3 and I will be surprised if she isn’t there or thereabouts on Friday. DEVIL MAY CARE is less experienced but showed a really tough attitude when winning a Group 1 at Belmont last month. As it was only her second start, you would assume that she will continue to improve and I think the 9/1 currently available looks a bit too big for a filly with so much potential. It could be dangerous to overlook the debutant winner, CONNIE AND MICHAEL, after she handed her two rivals a convincing 8L defeat at Keeneland last month. This is a massive step up in class but you cannot rule out further improvement.

Selection – DEVIL MAY CARE

10:23 – Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) 1m2f

I am a huge fan of Henry Cecil but I am going to MIDDAY here although I am finding hard to explain why. There is no doubt that she is a very talented filly but I feel that she is just below superstar status and I think there are a couple in Friday’s line-up. The four time Group 1 winner, FOREVER TOGETHER, is certainly one that fits the bill having won this race last year. Clearly better on a sounder surface, I thought she ran admirably to finish 3rd on her last start in a Group 1 at Keeneland given the soft ground. But I believe 10f stretches her stamina to the limit, I am more inclined to go with the prolific MAGICAL FANTASY, who has won her last four starts, two of which came over course and distance, being VISIT three times in the process. The ex-John Nicol trained filly has clearly been on an upward curve this season and I believe that this will be her crowning glory. RUTHERIENNE looks over-priced at 14/1 given that she was only 1L behind FOREVER TOGETHER in a Group 1 at Saratoga in August.

Selection – MAGICAL FANTASY

11:02 – Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Pro-Ride) 7f

Last year’s winner of this race, VENTURA, looks a very warm order again and is currently trading as short as 5/4 with most bookmakers. After two narrow defeats in Group 1s in the spring, she was given the summer off but came back as good as ever to win the Group 1 Woodbine Mile in September. I can’t see a flaw when it comes to form, trainer of jockey but her wide draw is a concern and because of that together with her short price, I am going to take her on. INFORMED DECISION looks a real 7f specialist, even though she won over 6f last time, but stall 7 is almost as bad. SARA LOUISE doesn’t have many miles on the clock and with the Godolphin horses going great guns at the moment, has to be respected. She has been tried over a multitude of trips this season but they seem to have got it right when she was only narrowly headed over 7f in a Group 2 at Belmont in September. Dettori rides her as opposed to SEVENTH STREET, who is yet to finish out of the first two on her six starts this season, but she gets on very well with Maragh so there probably wasn’t a decision to be made. However, I am going to stick my neck on the line and side with FREE FLYING SOUL who looks a massive price each-way at 33/1. This is a massive step up in class but she has steadily progressed with each start this season and with only five starts to her name, it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that she has plenty more to offer. She has looked a very game filly in her races so far, so from a plum draw I would be willing to have a little bit each-way in the hope that the principals drawn wide go off too quick.

Selection – FREE FLYING SOUL (E/W)

11:45 – Breeders´ Cup Ladies Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Pro-Ride) 1m1f

RAINBOW VIEW finally got off the mark for the year in the Matron Stakes in September but it was business as usual at Woodbine last month when she was beaten by Mick Channon’s soft ground lover Lahaleeb, despite the firm conditions. I am reluctant to oppose a John Gosden runner as he clearly knows the time of day when it comes to racing in the States but the Brits don’t have a great record in this race. The one I prefer is CARELESS JEWEL who has won her last five starts, which includes an 11L Group 1 victory on her penultimate start. MUSIC NOTE looks an obvious thre3at after winning her last two starts in Group 1s in convincing fashion, both for Friday’s jockey. MUSHKA was behind PROVISO at Keeneland last month but got the race in the Stewards’ Room. Frankel’s horse had the better of the draw and was probably unlucky to lose the race but I don’t think there will be a lot to separate the two on Friday.

Selection – CARELESS JEWEL