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THE BREEDER’S CUP SERVICE from Santa Anita

KEY

IG = Ian Grimwood, author of the Summer Festivals Betting Guide

NH = Neil Hubbard, author of the National Hunt Season Betting Guide

GN = Gordon Nicol, Bloodstock and American Racing specialist

 

Friday 6th November 2009

8:35 – Breeders´ Cup Marathon Stakes (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 1m6f

IG – MUHANNAK won this race last year but it has to be said he went into the race in much better form than he does this year. However, a deeper look at the form suggests that he has been laid out for this. He was given two pipe-openers at Kempton and Wolverhampton before running respectably without ever troubling the principals in the Cumberland Lodge Stakes. He can be a bit quirky nowadays but he has been there and done it, so has to be respected. MASTERY looked good when winning the St Leger, beating FATHER TIME 3 1/2L, but I am slightly worried by the form of the race. There didn’t appear to be a great deal of depth in the race, so at around 2/1 at present, I think he is worth taking on. I quite like the look of MAN OF IRON who looks to have been campaigned in Ireland with a view to be spot on in this race. He has won two of his last three starts over an extended 1m2f at Dundalk, with his only defeat coming in a Group 3 behind Mastercraftsman. He is yet to tackle this sort of trip but Aidan O’Brien had plenty of options so the fact that he has plumped for this race suggests to me that he feels this son of Giant’s Causeway is up to the job. I see NITE LIGHT as the main American challenge. He ran a belter over an inadequate trip in a Group 2 at Hawthorne at the start of last month, so arrived here at the top of his game and I have no doubt he will improve for the step up in trip. The nine-year-old CLOUDY’S KNIGHT seems a big price at 12/1 given that he has won two Group 3s on his two starts this term, especially as he seems to get on very well with this rider.

NH – Ok so the race he won on the AW was only his maiden but that experience could well count for plenty and FATHER TIME looks tailor made for this sort of test. I’m not convinced the St Leger was his cup of tea and his Voltigeur run can be excused seeing as it was his first outing for two months. Prior to that he was a very impressive winner at Royal Ascot and that level of form makes him the one to beat for me. MASTERY is honest enough but I can’t see him being quick enough for this race as it’s more than likely to develop into a sprint. MAN OF IRON is a bit of a dark horse of Aidan O’Brien and couldn’t be 100% dismissed and the home challenge looks weak for my money, which is no surprise considering the 1m 6f trip.

GN – In extending this race by a further two furlongs from last year’s distance to 1m 6f the Breeders’ Cup have done Europe a massive favour. The introduction of this race last year was always going to help produce a European winner, as US runners are disadvantaged by the fact that there are seldom any races further than 10f in the States, especially on the main track. The defending champion MUHANNAAK hasn’t exactly covered himself in glory this season but gave slight encouragement last time out to persuade Ralph Beckett to run him. The extended distance does not appear to help MUHANNAAK’s chances, but it does that of St Leger winner MASTERY. He is the clear form choice here, having beaten FATHER TIME the last twice. However, I believe there is a strong possibility that FATHER TIME will turn the tables. There is unlikely to be a blistering pace and the change of surface will also help him. He has been running on ground that is just on the fast side for him and with Dansili progeny having a particular liking to AW surfaces I believe we will see a turnaround in the form with MASTERY.

IG – MAN OF IRON

NH –FATHER TIME

GN – FATHER TIME

  

9:08 – Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (2yo Fillies) 1m

IG – This is probably the toughest race on Friday’s card. I was at Newmarket when LILLIE LANGTRY won a valuable sales race and I have to admit, I was thoroughly impressed. Okay, the opposition wasn’t anything close to what she will face on Friday but from a less than ideal draw in stall 7, she disposed of the opposition with consummate ease and was value for a good deal further than the official margin, had she needed to dig deeper, and on that evidence I see her as a strong Classic contender next season. The betting suggests that the unbeaten HOUSE OF GRACE will prove her biggest challenger but I am not so sure. She holds HATHEER following victory at Keeneland last month but she was all out to get up by a nose, suggesting that will need to improve again if she is to keep that 100% record intact. The German raider, JUNIA TEPZIA, also defends a perfect start. She was a very impressive winner on her first start in Italy and confirmed the promise shown by winning a listed contest with equal ease. The booking of Kieren Fallon looks a massive positive as he has plenty of experience when it comes to American tracks but her box 11 draw is a big concern. LA NEZ is much better drawn in stall 5. She certainly wasn’t stopping when winning over 7f success at the track last month and looks primed to run a big race, with the step up in trip looking to suit.

NH – Can the Europeans go 2 from 2? Maybe as LILLIE LANGTRY looks as solid as they come. This is her first try at the trip but that won’t be an issue and her form from this season puts her at the top of the shortlist for this. Kieren Fallon has been pretty sweet on his chances on the German trained JUNIA TEPZIA and the unbeaten daughter of Rock Of Gibraltar would be next best on my list although SMART SEATTLE shouldn’t be ruled out despite finishing behind HOUSE OF GRACE and TAPITSFLY on her last two outings.

GN – From following US racing for some years now I have come to the belief that, on turf, a good European should win these races. Obviously some of our big name horses have been turned over by the home team, but I put that down more to the tight turf courses, that do require a bit of luck in running, and the travelling. With that in mind LILLIE LANGTRY has to be the selection. Initial US odds of 8-1 were never going to be available and she is now 3-1 morning line. Apart from her 3rd in the Moyglare on bottomless ground she has always acquitted herself well and seems to have been highly thought of since early in the season, usually a good sign with Coolmore. She bounced back with a comprehensive win last time and can win again here. Others to be wary of are ROSE CATHERINE (for trainer Todd Pletcher), who was transformed, winning by 8¾l, when running on turf after two poor runs on the main track. The other Euro, for the moment anyway, is JUNIA TEPZIA trained by Peter Schiergen. She has been purchased by the shrewd Team Valor operation that is noted for being highly successful when acquiring horses from many parts of the globe. Having won her maiden nicely at Merano she won a Listed race at Milan by 3¼l and she also has the significant help of Kieren Fallon from the saddle.

IG – LILLIE LANGTRY

NH – LILLIE LANGTRY

GN – LILLIE LANGTRY

 

9:45 – Grey Goose Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Fillies (Grade 1) (2yo Fillies) (Pro-Ride) 1m110y

IG – The course and distance winning BLIND LUCK looks set to start favourite and it is easy to see why following her 2 1/2L victory over ALWAYS A PRINCESS in a Group 1 here last month. After making the running Bob Baffert’s runner was no match for the winner, so it will be interesting to see if they employ the same forcing tactics on Friday, although her box 11 draw suggests that she won’t be able to. BLIND LUCK on the other hand has the best of the draw in stall 3 and I will be surprised if she isn’t there or thereabouts on Friday. DEVIL MAY CARE is less experienced but showed a really tough attitude when winning a Group 1 at Belmont last month. As it was only her second start, you would assume that she will continue to improve and I think the 9/1 currently available looks a bit too big for a filly with so much potential. It could be dangerous to overlook the debutant winner, CONNIE AND MICHAEL, after she handed her two rivals a convincing 8L defeat at Keeneland last month. This is a massive step up in class but you cannot rule out further improvement.

NH – Team America will strike back here as Europe isn’t represented. NEGLIGEE would seem the obvious one but I quite like is BLIND LUCK. This filly was successful over course and distance last time out and I like the fact she is proven on the surface with so many dirt performers attempting to translate form across. Her only defeat to date came when beaten over 7f on her penultimate start but she flew home that day showing that the trip was all wrong for her. She looks to have plenty in her favour.

GN – Obviously with two-year-olds there are limited performances to go on but in these Breeders’ Cup Juvenile races we also have three “camps” to compare. We have AW performances in California and Kentucky and then dirt form from the East coast. In this instance I am going to dismiss DEVIL MAY CARE, not necessarily because of her own performance in the Gr.1 Frizette at Belmont where she held off a late run to win by a head, but because of the strength of two performers on the AW. BLIND LUCK and NEGLIGEE are the winners of the two main AW preps and both were visually impressive but in different ways. BLIND LUCK won the Oak Leaf on the 4th of October at Santa Anita drawing off to win by 2½l. On the same day the colts ran in their equivalent, the Norfolk, where LOOKIN AT LUCKY was all out to win in 1.43. BLIND LUCK won her race in the same time and carrying the same weight but was not as hard pressed by her jockey. The selection, however, is the winner of the Alcibiades at Keeneland, NEGLIGEE. She was travelling well a long way out in this race but couldn’t find room, so lost a little ground in looking for a position coming off the bend, but with only one crack of the whip and then a hand ride from Rajiv Maragh she picked up the leader to win by a cosy half length. She has also been impressing in her work at Santa Anita and although initially listed at 8-1 in the US she has now come in a couple of points to 6’s.

IG – DEVIL MAY CARE

NH – BLIND LUCK

GN – NEGLIGEE

  

10:23 – Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) 1m2f

IG – I am a huge fan of Henry Cecil but I am going to oppose MIDDAY here although I am finding hard to explain why. There is no doubt that she is a very talented filly but I feel that she is just below superstar status and I think there are potentially a couple in Friday’s line-up. The four time Group 1 winner, FOREVER TOGETHER, is certainly one that fits the bill having won this race last year. Clearly better on a sounder surface, I thought she ran admirably to finish 3rd on her last start in a Group 1 at Keeneland given the soft ground. But I believe 10f stretches her stamina to the limit, I am more inclined to go with the prolific MAGICAL FANTASY, who has won her last four starts, two of which came over course and distance, being VISIT three times in the process. The ex-John Nicol trained filly has clearly been on an upward curve this season and I believe that this will be her crowning glory. RUTHERIENNE looks over-priced at 14/1 given that she was only 1L behind FOREVER TOGETHER in a Group 1 at Saratoga in August.

NH – MIDDAY brings genuine European Group 1 turf form across the pond and it is hard to see her finishing outside the first two. The sharp nature of the Lingfield track which saw her land the Oaks Trial back in May could prove an invaluable experience for the left handed tight nature of Santa Anita and she could well cap a fine season for her jockey, Tom Queally. The reason I say ‘first two’ and not winner is that MAGICAL FANTASY shouldn’t be far away either. Since being transferred to the States she has improved leaps and bounds and lines up here the winner of her last 4 starts, the last 3 being Grade 1 events. As a previous winner round here it’s hard to see her not figuring.

GN – Having a look through this race, it appears that it might not be the strongest of renewals. When looking at the average speed figures for the winner of this race none of the home team have come close to the required level, defending champion FOREVER TOGETHER is the one who has come closest. Europe has a strong representative in the shape of MIDDAY, a valiant second in our Oaks and picked up her Gr.1 in the Nassau over this trip. Perhaps more could have been expected of her last time out in the Prix de l’Opera but she was coming off a 2 month break and that should have sharpened her up for this. An interesting home representative, who may run into a place at a decent price, is last year’s Juvenile Fillies’ Turf winner MARAM; she looked a picture that day and obviously loved the track. Things haven’t gone to plan this year as she has only run twice. She made her 3yo debut in August, a winning one at Saratoga, then two months later she went on to Belmont where she lost her unbeaten record. She suffered a terrible trip that day and was beaten a neck. She has not gone further than a 1m½f but being by Sahm, who was out of Salsabil, and MARAM’s dam being by Quest For Fame I believe she will relish the step up in trip. At best price 25-1 she is a speculative selection!

IG – MAGICAL FANTASY

NH – MIDDAY & MAGICAL FANTASY (Reverse forecast)

GN – MARAM

  

11:02 – Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Pro-Ride) 7f

IG – Last year’s winner of this race, VENTURA, looks a very warm order again and is currently trading as short as 5/4 with most bookmakers. After two narrow defeats in Group 1s in the spring, she was given the summer off but came back as good as ever to win the Group 1 Woodbine Mile in September. I can’t see a flaw when it comes to form, trainer of jockey but her wide draw is a concern and because of that together with her short price, I am going to take her on. INFORMED DECISION looks a real 7f specialist, even though she won over 6f last time, but stall 7 is almost as bad. SARA LOUISE doesn’t have many miles on the clock and with the Godolphin horses going great guns at the moment, has to be respected. She has been tried over a multitude of trips this season but they seem to have got it right when she was only narrowly headed over 7f in a Group 2 at Belmont in September. Dettori rides her as opposed to SEVENTH STREET, who is yet to finish out of the first two on her six starts this season, but she gets on very well with Maragh so there probably wasn’t a decision to be made. However, I am going to stick my neck on the line and side with FREE FLYING SOUL who looks a massive price each-way at 33/1. This is a massive step up in class but she has steadily progressed with each start this season and with only five starts to her name, it isn’t beyond the realms of possibility that she has plenty more to offer. She has looked a very game filly in her races so far, so from a plum draw I would be willing to have a little bit each-way in the hope that the principals drawn wide go off too quick.

NH – This looks another for the forecast as INFORMED DECISION and VENTURA seem way ahead of their rivals. Although they are drawn in the widest two stalls their form is rock solid. The former is a real machine on polytrack, unbeaten so far, while the latter is the more experienced of the pair and seeing these two fight out the finish would be my thinking. Of the two I’d slightly favour the former but it’s probably best to reverse the forecast just to be sure.

GN – We are likely to be faced with a short priced favourite here in the shape of VENTURA. The ex-Amanda Perrett trained filly impressively won this race last year by 4l beating Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies’ winner Indian Blessing. Last year she was backed as if defeat was out of the question and she comes into this year’s race in better form. She has also been posting excellent works recently including, when being described as “breezing”, going 59.80 for 5f at Hollywood Park. With likely restrictive odds I have looked for something to box up with her in an exacta. A filly with an impressive AW record, 6 from 6, is INFORMED DECISION. One of those wins came at Keeneland where she beat VENTURA a head getting 2lbs-that was in April though and she hasn’t quite reached those heights since. However, the selection I will put with VENTURA is SARA LOUISE. Admittedly she has to overcome the believed bias of coming off the dirt onto AW, but reports of her working exceptionally well over the track have swayed me. This, along with her visibly impressive performances in her two runs this year and her excellent speed figures, put her right up there with VENTURA.

IG – FREE FLYING SOUL (E/W)

NH – INFORMED DECISION & VENTURA (Reverse forecast)

GN – VENTURA & SARA LOUISE (Exacta)

 

11:45 – Breeders´ Cup Ladies Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+ Fillies & Mares) (Pro-Ride) 1m1f

IG – RAINBOW VIEW finally got off the mark for the year in the Matron Stakes in September but it was business as usual at Woodbine last month when she was beaten by Mick Channon’s soft ground lover Lahaleeb, despite the firm conditions. I am reluctant to oppose a John Gosden runner as he clearly knows the time of day when it comes to racing in the States but the Brits don’t have a great record in this race. The one I prefer is CARELESS JEWEL who has won her last five starts, which includes an 11L Group 1 victory on her penultimate start. MUSIC NOTE looks an obvious threat after winning her last two starts in Group 1s in convincing fashion, both for Friday’s jockey. MUSHKA was behind PROVISO at Keeneland last month but got the race in the Stewards’ Room. Frankel’s horse had the better of the draw and was probably unlucky to lose the race but I don’t think there will be a lot to separate the two on Friday.

NH – PROVISO made a ‘winning’ start to life in America when first past the post at Keeneland last time out. However she was demoted to second that day for hampering MUSHKA but the facts remain she proved her suitability for both trip and surface and it wouldn’t come as a big surprise to see her gain compensation here. The one that is interesting me is RAINBOW VIEW who has been a bit of ‘nearly horse’ this year after her unbeaten juvenile campaign. She has been well supported in nearly all her races this year but has only 1 success to her name, a fairly weak Matron Stakes at Leopardstown. That said she’s always struck me as a likely Breeders’ Cup type horse and her latest second at Woodbine, in a race run in a similar way to how this will, gives her another realistic shot at glory. CARLESS JEWEL has won her last five starts but her three Graded wins came on dirt so although she is a polytrack winner is remains to be seen how she’ll go at the highest level. The current favourite with British bookies I’d be happy to take her on.

GN – The defection of Zenyatta from this race into the boys’ Classic has left many with chances. The placed horses from last year, the Godolphin pair, COCOA BEACH and MUSIC NOTE try again. COCOA BEACH finished 1½l in front that day but I believe MUSIC NOTE will turn the tables and in fact is my idea of the winner. MUSIC NOTE completely washed out that day and seeing her beforehand I believed she had no chance whatsoever. Perhaps believing she had gone over the top by the time the Breeders’ Cup came round, Saeed bin Suroor and his US based assistant, the greatly experienced Rick Mettee, have given her a completely different preparation this time. She has had just three runs this season-after an initial pipe opener at Belmont in June she came back to record two Gr.1 wins, setting massive speed numbers on both occasions. The dirt to synthetics angle is still a worry but she proved to me she handles Santa Anita with her performance last year. COCOA BEACH, on the other hand, does not appear to be quite the force she was last year. The same could also be said for RAINBOW VIEW. Although she has picked up as the season has gone on, her level of form does not seem quite up to this. LETHAML HEAT has the look of a likely place finisher at a big price having 5 runs in Graded races this year and been placed each time.

IG – CARELESS JEWEL

NH –PROVISO, PROVISO & RAINBOW VIEW (Forecast)

GN – MUSIC NOTE

 

Saturday 7th November 2009

6:45 – Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 2) (2yo Colts & Geldings) 1m

IG - Gosden and Dettori won this race last year with Donativum and look to hold decent claims with the Prix Jean-Luc runner up POUNCED, who was half a length ahead of BUZZWORD. At around the same price I prefer Coolmore’s VISCOUNT NELSON who won two on the bounce before chasing home Poet’s Voice in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. Being out of Imagine, an Oaks and Irish 1000 Guineas winner, he is a half-brother to the classy Horatio Nelson, Red Rock Canyon and Kitty Matcham, so even if he does suffer defeat on Saturday he is one to keep an eye on next season. When it comes to the American challenge I quite like the look of INTERACTIF who has won Group 3s on his last two starts. Despite the fact that he was conceding 6lbs to CODOY last time, he still beat him a length so there is no reason why the form should be reversed off level weights but his stall 11 draw is putting me off slightly. That may bring in BRIDGETOWN who had BECKY’S KITTEN well held at Woodbine in September. This is only his fourth career start, so there is evidence to believe he will continue to improve.

NH – POUNCED is a horse I really like and with the stable winning this twelve months ago it seems logical to expect their runner this year to go close. He was second in Group 1 company last time out, a run which means he holds BUZZWORD, and despite the fact he will probably need a more galloping track to be seen to best effect he has enough class to get involved. VISCOUNT NELSON ran a decent race to be second at Doncaster in the Group 2 Champagne Stakes last time out. With a pedigree that suggests he’ll be better over further next year I’m not sure about him should this turn into a sprint down the short home straight. The domestic challenge is led by INTERACTIF who looks to have improved for the switch from dirt to turf. The fast ground will be ideal and although the drop back in trip isn’t ideal he showed plenty of speed to win his maiden over 5f in July. Normally the turf races are the European’s domain but Todd Pletcher’s star may just upset them here.

GN - Last year it was a European one two in this race with Dettori and Gosden (Donativum), touching off Murtagh and O’Brien (Westphalia). I suspect a repeat is a strong possibility with POUNCED and VISCOUNT NELSON currently vying for favouritism. I am going to just side with VISCOUNT NELSON. Last time out at Doncaster he finished a good second to one of the Godolphin leading 2yo’s Poet’s Voice. With Dettori, who is a master when riding from the front, getting a soft lead that day, VISCOUNT NELSON’s effort is all the more admirable. On breeding, by Giant’s Causeway out of Oaks winner Imagine, the 7f trip of the Champagne would be the minimum he requires and the mile should bring out further improvement. The run of POUNCED last time in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere is clearly top class, but the form appears to be exposed as he split Siyouni and BUZZWORD and there has not been much between these two in their two meetings. Looking further down the betting, one of interest each way is GALLENT GENT. He has acquitted himself well on the main tracks of California and although he hasn’t tried turf yet, synthetics are thought to suit a turf horse rather than a dirt horse. Last time he gained a good speed figure when finishing third to Juvenile favourite Lookin At Lucky in the Norfolk, Gr.1. At best price 33-1 he might be worth a few dollars across the board!

IG – VISCOUNT NELSON

NH – INTERACTIF

GN – VISCOUNT NELSON

 

7:23 – Breeders´ Cup Turf Sprint (3yo+) 6f110y

IG – We all remember CANONBALL from his two runs at the Royal Meeting, where his best effort came when runner up in the Golden Jubilee. Digging deeper into his American form, he should have no problems getting the extended 6f but I do worry slightly that he is slightly below top class level. I would like to see STRIKE THE DEAL run well but 5f looks to be his trip nowadays and he has been done no favours by the draw. DIAMONDRELLA is currently vying for favouritism and rightly so after winning two Group 1s this season. However, both came over a mile so you have to wonder how she will cope with the drop down in trip even though she won over 6f at the start of the year. There doesn’t appear to be any such concerns over CALIFORNIA FLAG who has won his last three starts over 5, 6 and 7F. He has had a pretty light campaign this season which looks to have been mapped out for him to improve on his modest 10th place in this race last season. I reckon he has a big chance from box 3 but the one I am most worried about is drawn one place inside him. When SILVER TIMBER started his career he looked decidedly ordinary but everything seems to have come right for him this season. He has won four of his last five starts, including two at Group 3 level, so I think he will be dangerous to discount whilst in this vein of form.

NH – LORD SHANAKILL has his first run for his new trainer and his first run over 6f since winning the Mill Reef Stakes over a year ago. It’ll be interesting to see how he goes from a good looking draw. STRIKE THE DEAL has the worst of the draw but under Kieren Fallon he has been held up in his recent races so as long as he isn’t too far off the pace in the rear then he can get involved. The form of his last race, when beating Total Gallery, has worked out a treat so on that count he has no worries. He has the right man on board and although he’s yet to win at this level I think there are worse each-way chances. Interestingly DIAMONDRELLA’S last two wins have both been over 1m but she has plenty of speed considering the way she has quicken from last to first to notch those wins. SILVER TIMBER has enough form in the book to think he can be a player from his stall 2 berth. He was beaten by CANNONBALL on his penultimate outing but looks to have more improvement in him and I want to have him on my side.

GN - A unique race not just for the Breeders’ Cup but for American racing in general. Horses running here at Santa Anita on the downhill 6½f track have to take the only right hand bend in North America. This can lead American handicappers to look for course and distance form and that may bring them to last year’s winner DESERT CODE – of his 9 starts on the course he has won 5 of them. Also, it may be that lightning can strike twice with him – last year’s prep was a 7th in the Morvich behind CALIFORNIA FLAG, the exact same form as this year. CALIFORNIA FLAG is strongly fancied again, a generally progressive horse last year disappointed in this but this year comes in fresher and his two runs have produced excellent speed figures. However, the selection I think will upset them all is one of the few Gr.1 winners in the race, LORD SHANAKILL. He will be having his first run for one of the most highly respected trainers in America, Richard Mandella, the man who will go down in history for winning four BC races in one day here at Santa Anita in 2003. Mandella’s undoubted skill for peaking a horse on the big day is hopefully showing in LORD SHANAKILL’s recent work with a bullet 1/16, a 2/55 and a 3/20. It is interesting that Mandella has decided to drop him back in trip rather than go for either of the mile races-running at 5 to 7f at two he won or placed in 6 Group races, so this son of 2004 Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Speightstown should have no problem in returning to this sprint distance and hopefully at a healthy price too.

IG – CALIFORNIA FLAG

NH – SILVER TIMBER, STRIKE THE DEAL (E/W)

GN – LORD SHANAKILL

 

8:10 – Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 6f

IG – FLEETING SPIRIT did me a big favour when winning the July Cup and she has continued to run well since then, finishing runner up in the Haydock Sprint Cup and Prix de l’Abbaye. This filly is as tough as nails and I think 6f is her ideal trip. She looks massively over-priced at 14/1, despite her stall 9 draw, and I believe each-way punters will get a run for the money. However, the one she will have to beat is Bob Baffert’s ZENSATIONAL who is a Group 1 winning machine. His last three victories have all come at the highest level and to be honest, on neither occasion has he really been troubled. The trip looks ideal as does his draw in stall 1 and it will take a very big effort to lower his colours. Godolphin’s GAYEGO come good last time with an impressive Group 1 success over course and distance but he still has some way to go to prove that he is up to the favourite’s level. FATAL BULLET had the beating of CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN at Keeneland last month but he was receiving 4lbs and re-opposes on Saturday on 6lbs worse terms suggesting that a reverse is on the cards.

NH – From all I’ve read there’s only going to be one winner of this and that’s GAYEGO. Unbeaten in four runs over 6f, he was successful over course and distance last time out and it was a performance that had everyone talking. His jockey was most impressed that day and his form is more than good enough to win this (in March he beat subsequent Dubai Golden Shaheen winner Big City Man). FLEETING SPIRIT has proved a match for all Europe’s sprinters this term and she shouldn’t have any problem with this surface. She’ll do better than when 4^th twelve months ago in the Turf Sprint at this track and with the American PMU we could find her trading at a very attractive price.

GN – This contest could be all about one horse, the likely short priced favourite ZENSATIONAL. This exciting 3yo son of leading sire Unbridled’s Song has won 5 of his last six starts, all over sprint trips. He ticks a lot of boxes – he is trained by Bob Baffert; he has won on three different Californian AW surfaces; his last 3 starts have produced emphatic Gr.1 victories, two of these being over 7f; and with the pace the Breeders’ Cup Sprint always produces being able to stay 7f is an advantage. However, it is this pace that may be his undoing. Little has been able to live with him in California but with the likes of last year’s runner-up FATAL BULLET being more than capable of going well under 22 for the quarter and 44 for the half, ZENSATIONAL will not find things so easy. This suggests to me a closer is where we should be looking and my selection GAYEGO is exactly that. A lovely big strong son of Gilded Time ran in last year’s Kentucky Derby, but his only defeat in his last 5 starts came when his speed was stretched too far in the Godolphin Mile. His last start in the Ancient Title here at Santa Anita was what I hope to see here, be kept well off lightning fractions and coming through late to an emphatic victory. He was 10-1 after that victory which is sadly no longer available. GAYEGO and ZENSATIONAL are, for me, clearly the two outstanding horses in this race, so a reverse forecast (an exacta box in America) is another option.

IG – ZENSATIONAL, FLEETING SPIRIT (E/W)

NH – GAYEGO, FLEETING SPIRIT (E/W)

GN – GAYEGO

 

8:49 – Grey Goose Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Pro-Ride) 1m110y

IG – Aidan O’Brien runs his Dewhurst winner BEETHOVEN but I am more inclined to edge towards his other runner ALFRED NOBEL. The Phoenix Stakes winner never went a yard in the heavy ground in the National Stakes but bounced back with a very credible effort in a valuable sales race at Newmarket. Murtagh had him covered up early on but when he pressed the button he swept past his rivals and was going away at the finish. The only problem was he only beat those drawn on the stand side. The ground on the far side was decidedly quicker and he had no answer to that advantage. The course and distance winning LOOKIN AT LUCKY has looked a bit special this season, winning a Group 2 and two Group 1s on his last three starts, but connections must be ruing their luck being handed a coffin box draw in 13. With that in mind the main American challenge may come from D’FUNNYBONE who has won his last two starts in Group 2 company. NOBLE’S PROMISE is another not discounted lightly after his Group 1 success last time. Finally, if you believe in fate, could this be RADIOHEAD’s race? An impressive winner of the Norfolk Stakes in June, he was well fancied to run a big race in the Nunthorpe. As it was I thought he ran well enough to finish 3rd. But then he was beaten in the Mill Reef (by a very well regarded horse may I add) and suddenly no one wants to know him in the Middle Park where he was sent off a 14/1 outsider of five. Once again, he was no match for his Newbury conqueror Awzaan but he finished with a right old rattle beating some well thought of animals in the process. If Martin Dwyer can get him settled early on, I can see him cutting down a few in the closing stages.

NH – The unbeaten LOOKIN AT LUCKY will surely be favourite and that’s fair enough after 4 straight wins, including one over this course and distance. His draw isn’t perfect though and I want to be siding with the European runners on this one, in particular BEETHOVEN. His stable mate ALFRED NOBEL got plenty of people talking when easily winning his race in the Timeform Millions at Newmarket. However seeing as he was drawn on the wrong side that only translated into a fifth placed finish and he’ll be popular choice here. For me though the ultra tough BEETHOVEN has the sort of character I want for this. This is a tough race at the end of a juvenile campaign and Aidan O’Brien’s charge has all the right attributes. Back him with American bookies for some extra value.

GN – As with the Juvenile Fillies’ we find the same problem to overcome, having to compare California, New York and Kentucky form. The West Coast AW form is headed by the unbeaten son of Curlin’s sire Smart Strike, LOOKIN AT LUCKY who is trained by Bob Baffert and only two trainers have trained more BC winners than he has. Representing East Coast dirt form is D’FUNNYBONE, trained by Richard Dutrow, another trainer with an impressive BC record of 3 wins from only 10 starters. With Pro-Ride, compared to Dirt, believed to be favouring turf horses there is a strong European contingent, led by BEETHOVEN and ALFRED NOBEL. There are question marks over all those horses. LOOKIN AT LUCKY, although unbeaten and a dual Gr.1 winner has not recorded the greatest speed figures. D’FUNNYBONE has to overcome coming off Dirt onto the AW and he also has more of a question mark over the distance than others as it will be his first attempt round two turns. Another to bear in mind is PULSION, second behind LOOKIN AT LUCKY last time but stopped in his run coming off the bend. However, the key race may be the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland where the winner, NOBLE’S PROMISE impressively went four lengths clear early in the straight, but the staying on AIKENITE got to within ½l with the rest of the field 3 lengths back and strung out. The race may have been won around the first bend with both horses going into it side by side, but it was NOBLE’S PROMISE that had the edge. AIKENITE has an advantage in size and may have better classic potential for next year, but it is NOBLE’S PROMISE’s speed and ability to quicken that gives him the advantage for this race.

IG – ALFRED NOBEL

NH – BEETHOVEN (E/W)

GN – NOBLE’S PROMISE

 

9:28 – TVG Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m

IG – GOLDIKOVA is a short price to follow up her win in this race last year and despite a blip last time in the Prix de la Foret, I think she has every chance. She hasn’t been handed the kindest of draws and therefore at 6/4 I am willing to take her on. I have never been that much of a fan of DELEGATOR as I believe he was massively over-hyped after winning an ordinary looking Craven Stakes. I was therefore not surprised to see him beaten in the English and Irish Guineas although in his defence he did run a better race when runner up in the St James’s Palace Stakes. He then beat ZACINTO in a very ordinary looking Celebration Mile but was firmly put in his place by Rip Van Winkle in the QEII. Godolphin’s horses are in a rich vein of form, so we could see some improvement but I think there is a better case to be made about their other runner GLADIATORUS. When he won in Dubai in the Winter, he was being talked about as a real superstar but Godolphin’s horses simply weren’t firing at the start of the season and he was well beaten in the Queen Anne, Jacques le Marois and Prix de Moulin. However, he bounced back last time with an impressive Group 1 success in Italy, so at around 12/1 he could prove well over priced. Richard Dutrow Jr won this race in 2007 with the classy Kip Deville and I like the look of his runner this year, COURT VISION. After a busy start to the season, he was rested over the summer before being brought back in October when he earned a hard fought Group 1 victory at Keeneland. After such a break he more than likely needed the run, so he can be expected to come on for the run on Saturday.

NH – GLADIATORUS excels when getting his own way up front and I can see him leading all of these a merry dance. Ok so front runners don’t have a great record on the track but they do far better than those who adopt similar tactics on the pro-ride. If they give him too much rope then it could be game over. GOLDIKOVA is going for back-to-back wins and in theory is the one to beat but I have a doubt as to how much her latest effort took out of her. Surely chasing a suicidal pace over 7f isn’t the best preparation for this? ZACINTO has looked the real deal in 3 runs this year and it speaks volumes that Sir Michael Stoute was so keen to let him take his chance here rather than tackle the Champion Stakes at HQ. He looks the perfect sort for this race with his ability to quicken surely going to be key. I see him running a massive race.

GN – GOLDIKOVA tries to retain her title that she won so decisively last year and has had a tremendous season. Even though she has been compared favourably by her trainer to dual Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Miesque, I fear she will not be able to emulate the legendary Niarchos filly. There are two reasons that put me off her. She is badly drawn in the outside box, 11 of 11. After last time out where she was faced with a similar bad draw Peslier has to make a big decision. Does he go for the lead or drop in behind or go mid-pack and be forced wide the whole way. Her defeat last time was put down to Peslier’s tactics from the draw, having her up on what was said to be afterward, too fast a pace. However, two of the first three were on that pace – Sweet Hearth beating GOLDIKOVA 1/2l into 3rd. From this I believe she may not have run to form as opposed to the judgement of the ride. Godolphin are doubly represented and I think they will have another winner in the shape of DELEGATOR. I believe he does not quite see out a stiff mile and that this easier tight turning track will play to his strengths. The way he won at Goodwood when quickening off a moderate pace, defeating ZACINTO, was visibly impressive and his turn of speed could prove vital as a tightly packed field come off the final bend. Of the home challenge COWBOY CAL looks their best chance. After being freshened up mid-year he has come back to his best in his last two starts, culminating in an excellent victory last time over course and distance.

IG – GLADIATORUS

NH – ZACINTO, GLADIATORUS (E/W) 

GN – DELEGATOR 

 

10:12 – Breeders´ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 1m

IG – The Irish 1000 Guineas winner MASTERCRAFTSMAN has a plum draw in box 1 and probably deserves his place at the head of the betting. After a hugely consistent season, Aidan O’Brien took the sensible step of giving him a spin on the sand at Dundalk which he seemed to take to like a duck to water, running out an impressive 5L winner without too much persuasion. I have Godolphin’s MIDSHIPMAN down as his strongest rival as he looked a highly progressive colt last season culminating in victory in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. He missed most of this season but made a belated reappearance in a modest race at Belmont in September, in which he ran out a comfortable winner, confirming that the old spark was still there. No doubt he will have done plenty of work at home since then so there should be more to come. BULLSBAY certainly can’t be discounted lightly after solid efforts on his last two starts but of the three mentioned I feel that MIDSHIPMAN offers the best value at around 6/1.

NH – MASTERCRAFTSMAN will be all the rage and quite rightly so too. With an Irish Guineas and St James’s Place Stakes victory already in the bag this year he proved he can handle this surface when easily winning his prep at Dundalk. The one to beat. At the prices though I’ll take him on with last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner, MIDSHIPMAN. He’s been off injured for a while and has only raced once in the last year. Still, he was successful on that occasion at Belmont and with winning form on the surface could offer a spot of value against the Irish runner.

GN – A race that is a much needed addition to the Breeders’ Cup schedule. With speed the name of the game in the States and the fact there is not actually a great number of 10f races, many horses throughout the year have top class 8-9f main track form, but may not stay 10f. In previous years they have had to choose between the Sprint, Classic or Turf Mile. Now they have their chance. BULLSBAY is one such horse-racing mostly at 9f this season he won one of America’s major races the Whitney Handicap and then finished third to Rachel Alexandra in the Woodward. As he started his career in California on AW he shows he handles the surface. Godolphin have two representatives, PYRO and MIDSHIPMAN. PYRO has, in his time, some exceptional performances but his two runs on AW have been relatively poor. MIDSHIPMAN picked up an injury and didn’t make his winning seasonal debut until September; a great deal more is required here. MASTERCRAFTSMAN has been sensational this year picking up two Gr.1’s and twice running well behind Sea The Stars. However, it worries me that those were hard runs as both times he tried to draw the sting out of Sea The Stars and was sent for home quite far out. At the price I do not think he is value, so I have looked further afield, in fact to FURTHEST LAND. Available at writing at 25-1, he looks a great across the board bet. Interestingly, possibly the top jockey in America, Garrett Gomez was initially jocked up on this horse. He rode him last time out where he set an impressive number when winning the Kentucky Cup Classic and became two for two on synthetics.

IG – MIDSHIPMAN

NH – MIDSHIPMAN (e/w)

GN – FURTHEST LAND

 

10:57 – Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) 1m4f

IG – There is a heavy British influence in this race, none more so than last year’s winner CONDUIT. His form figures perhaps aren’t as impressive as last season’s but he has run soundly all season, his win in the King George the highlight. He ran a belter to finish 4th in the Arc on his last start so couldn’t be arriving here better and I believe he will prove very hard to on Saturday. DAR RE MI was only a length behind him at Longchamp so I don’t think there will be a lot between then once again. Stoute’s other runner SPANISH MOON shouldn’t be classed second best as he is a hugely progressive horse in his own right. He has had a fairly light campaign after narrowly losing out to Eastern Anthem in Dubai but he was impressive when winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and Prix Foy on his last two starts, suggesting that he is more than up to the job and Fallon isn’t a bad second string jockey! I think the American’s will be put to the sword here with PRESIOUS PASSION offering there only glimmer of hope. He looked a nice horse when winning over 10f here last month but whether that was enough to lower the British flag, I am not so sure.

NH – I think Sir Michael Stoute can have a 1-2 here with CONDUIT taken to beat SPANISH MOON. Last year’s winner has looked on good terms with himself this year landing the King George and running a couple of big races behind Sea The Stars. He has apparently been working really well in California and is the one to beat. His stable mate has landed his own Group 1 race this year and hasn’t really been given the credit he deserves. This is partly due to him being banned from racing in the UK owing to stalls problems. However there is no denying his class and shouldn’t be underestimated. I like DAR RE MI but this will be her first try on a tight course like this and I’m happy to look past her. Keep your eye on PRESIOUS PASSION whose front running style will make him classic back-to-lay material.

GN - With top US Turf horse Gio Ponti heading for the Classic this race is left wide open for a European. Turf racing in the States is the poor relation to dirt and AW, in general terms a horse will start out on the main track and move on to the Turf only if all is not going to plan. With home advantage many US trained horses have won BC Turf races and in doing so turned over big name Europeans but I would be gravely disappointed if this is the case in this race. CONDUIT, SPANISH MOON and DAR RE MI have exceptional form over the race distance and even though SPANISH MOON started off in Dubai they have not had hard seasons, a total of 12 runs between them in 2009. I feel there are two threats here, a slow pace and the horse that would be happy to set that, PRECIOUS PASSION. US jockeys very rarely race over 1½miles and are seen by us on this side of the pond to be scared of it. If SPANISH MOON or DAR RE MI, who have led before, go out and make it a true test I believe we will see a similar race to the 2005 Turf with top class Europeans filling the first three places. In keeping with America’s love of exotic betting I would recommend a Trifecta Box, or as we would call it a combination Tricast, on CONDUIT, SPANISH MOON and DAR RE MI.

IG – CONDUIT

NH – CONDUIT & SPANISH MOON (Reverse forecast)

GN – CONDUIT, SPANISH MOON & DAR RE MI (Tricast)

 

 11:45 – Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 1m2f

IG – Raven’s Pass won this race last year on the back of success in the QEII and RIP VAN WINKLE has a similar profile but if his stall 10 draw wasn’t enough of a worry, there have been some worrying comments coming out of the US about his well being. To me, that is enough to look to oppose him. I would love to see Henry Cecil win this with TWICE OVER but I don’t think his form stacks up to much, certainly at this level. The one I am most keen on is the five-year-old mare ZENYATTA. I have seen her a few times on TV and have been very impressed with what I have seen. She isn’t your usual looking mare, in fact unless you look closely you could easily confuse her for a colt, she is that big and powerful. She was a winner at this meeting last year, in that Ladies Classic, and from a perfect draw in stall 4 I think she will take plenty of beating. If 7/2 is a bit short for you and you are looking for value, I wouldn’t rule out a big effort from GIO PONTI. His current price of around 14/1 looks massive for a horse which has won four Group 1s this season.

NH – Can 13 from 13 become 14 from1 4? That’s the big question for ZENYATTA. This is her first run against the opposite sex and although she has the physique of a colt this really is judgement day. Her versus RIP VAN WINKLE is what the Breeders’ Cup is all about but both make limited appeal at their current prices seeing as there are question marks against both. RIP has the best form in the race but once again his preparation apparently hasn’t been great while the challenge of facing the colts poses a big question mark against the super-mare. It was a great piece of training from Henry Cecil with TWICE OVER in the Champion Stakes and I wouldn’t be too quick to dismiss this one’s chances here. He’s solid, if not spectacular, and now his confidence is buoyed he could run a huge race. QUALITY ROAD is an interesting American runner although this will be his first try on pro-ride and that just sounds a warning bell for me. Kentucky Derby winner MIND THAT BIRD looks to have plenty on his plate while GIO PONTI is probably better on turf.

GN – Although going into this race we may be missing a clearly defined US male champion, as we have had in previous years, we do have some good alternatives. We have the best Europe has to offer (that isn’t named Sea The Stars!) in RIP VAN WINKLE; the leading US older filly, AW-loving, 13 start unbeaten, ZENYATTA; the enigmatic Kentucky Derby winner MINE THAT BIRD; and SUMMER BIRD, winner of the Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. Add in a host of horses at a nice price and with a nice chance and you’ve got a real puzzle. I am going to rule out SUMMER BIRD down to his never having tried AW and that his sire Birdstone seems to produce horses that love dirt and not much else. One of the few Birdstone’s that have won on synthetics is MINE THAT BIRD – he started out on the Polytrack at Woodbine winning four times. I think the best we can hope for with this cracking little horse is to see him running on into a place. One of the most talented horses I haven’t mentioned yet is QUALITY ROAD. An early season favourite for the Kentucky Derby he had to miss the classics due to injury but on his return has run exceptionally well in being placed behind SUMMER BIRD. However, I believe he doesn’t quite see out the 1¼m and if he was mine he would be in the Dirt Mile. ZENYATTA is a magnificent filly, with great looks, size and ability but I don’t think she will be quite able to beat the boys. Fillies taking on the colts in the States is a rarity and to attempt it in the Breeders’ Cup Classic is indeed a challenge. The winner, in my opinion, will be RIP VAN WINKLE. With the inclusion of ZENYATTA he will probably be a bigger price in America than he will be here. There is no doubt he is an exceptional horse and the one that gave Sea The Stars the most to think about this season. The surface is a question of course-Galileo’s handle synthetics well enough but the produce of his damsire Stravinsky do enjoy the surface. I am confident that Aidan O’Brien will finally get his much sought after win in the Classic.

IG – ZENYATTA, GIO PONTI (E/W)

NH –TWICE OVER (E/W)

GN – RIP VAN WINKLE