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Saturday 7th November

2.05 Doncaster

LES FAZZANI won this race by seven lengths last season and looks to have every chance of following up after a narrow defeat in an Italian Group 1 on her most recent start. Clearly, the trip and ground will suit, so off level weights her 19 rivals will have to improve significantly if they are to lower her colours. On official ratings ARWAAH looks to be her main rival, especially as she ran respectably in the pride Stakes at Newmarket’s Champions Day meeting. The ground is a slight concern as she is yet to encounter ground this soft. Of the rest, CARTOON is completely unexposed after only two starts but she posted a sound effort in April to beat the classy Strawberrydaiquiri and could be open to plenty of improvement. On the downside, she has clearly suffered a set back as she hasn’t been seen out since then but if she is up for this first time up, I can see her surprising a few people. The other one I would consider is Godolphin’s COPPERBEECH. She looked a nice filly on soft ground last season with the highlight coming with a narrow defeat in the Group 1 Marcel Boussac. She hasn’t really had her ground since but still ran respectably at Leicester last month to suggest that she is a force to be reckoned with on Saturday.

SHORTLIST

LES FAZZANI

ARWAAH

CARTOON

COPPERBEECH

2.40 Doncaster

We have another 2008 winner out to defend their title in this race in the shape of ICELANDIC but he doesn’t look to be coming into the race this year in the same level of form. SIR GERRY comes into the race as the top rated but he has missed most of the season and may just need the run. The one I like most is ABLE MASTER who will be suited by the step down in trip after just struggling to get home over 7f on his last two starts. He acts when there is juice in the ground and from stall 11 I think he has a big chance off level weights. FULLANDBY was impressive when winning at Kempton on Tuesday and as he gets into this race without a penalty and will love the juice in the ground, I expect him to go close. The final one to interest me is PRESCRIPTION as I have no idea where Sir Mark is going with her. She clearly handles cut in the ground and 6f would appear to be her trip.

SHORTLIST

ABLE MASTER

FULLANDBY

PRESCRIPTION

3.15 Doncaster – Totesport.com November Handicap

Three-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals, so that is good news for the two in this year’s line up, KINGS DESTINY and STORMY WEATHER. Four-year-olds are next best followed by the five-year-olds so horses of neither age group should be written off on that trend alone. When it comes to negatives, we haven’t seen a six-year-old winner since 1998 suggesting that MAGICALMYSTERYTOUR has something to prove whilst the chances of PEVENSEY and TILT look even slimmer as they have an even worse record.

As eight of the last ten winners has achieved a top four finish on their most recent start, it would seem pointless looking beyond that. Those that qualify on that front are TASTAHIL, BAILA ME, SAFARI SUNUP, SALDEN LICHT, KINGS DESTINY, STORMY WEATHER, HEVELIUS, HILLVIEW BOY, ELLA, CONQUISTO, TRIP THE LIGHT and PERSIAN PERIL. That is quite a big shortlist but we can narrow it down when we consider that each of the last five winners had been officially rated between 93 and 99. Therefore, TASTAHIL, BAILA ME, KINGS DESTINY, HEVELIUS, HILLVIEW BOY, ELLA, CONQUISTO, TRIP THE LIGHT and PERSIAN PERIL have to be viewed with a degree of caution.

There are a few other areas to consider. Horses drawn in double figures have tended to hold an advantage for some strange reason whilst favourites also need to be opposed as they haven’t won the November Handicap since 1995. At the moment there are half a dozen all capable of filling that birth so check the betting nearer the off.

Trainer wise, Brian Ellison has probably the best record so LADIES BEST and TILT shouldn’t be dismissed lightly. On a negative front, Richard Fahey (TRIP THE LIGHT) and Gary Moore (FIRST AVENUE) have less than ideal records.

SHORTLIST

KINGS DESTINY

STORMY WEATHER

SALDEN LICHT

SAFARI SUNUP

CONCLUSION

KINGS DESTINY meets most of the trends head on, by way of the fact that he is a three-year-old that was runner up on his last start and respectably drawn in stall 13. Technically he is a pound higher in the weights than ideal and I do hope that he isn’t sent off favourite. When it comes to form everything looks primed for a big run tomorrow. Twelve furlongs is his ideal trip and I think he will relish the soft conditions. I am also pleased to see Philip Robinson take the ride as he seems to get the best out of this horse with form figures of 21212. Looking back to his latest run when he finished 2nd at Ascot, I think he confirmed that he is still able to be competitive off his current mark. SAFARI SUNUP was just over a length behind him in 3rd and on slightly better terms the pair look sure to finish even closer together on Saturday. He also scores well from a trends point of view although his stall 4 draw is a slight concern given that those drawn high have had the upper hand in recent years.

STORMY WEATHER is another with a low draw but aside from that he performs well. Howard Johnson’s horses seem to be in tip-top form at the moment and this fellow can be included in that after he was only narrowly beaten over hurdles at Aintree last month. Being French bred, he should have no problems with the juice in the ground and with Frederik Tylicki desperate for a winner to ensure victory in the apprentice jockeys’ title, we can be sure that he will throw everything he has at the horse. The final one on the shortlist is James Eustace’s SALDEN LICHT. I do have a slight concern about his ability to get the trip but other than that he fares well and will have no problems handling the cut in the ground. I thought he ran a sound race on his final start at Newbury and from stall 18, I can see him running a big race.

3.45 Doncaster

So here it is the final race of the 2009 flat season. Not a race I would be desperate to get involved with but I can’t help but keep looking at MASTER HARDY. He has won on soft ground in the past and has also won over course and distance but the thing that keeps catching my eye is his jockey booking. Tylicki has had a fantastic season by anyone’s standards and I just have this gut feeling that this race will provide the icing on the cake. The recent Ayr winner COLLATERAL DAMAGE is an obvious challenger even though he is up another 4lbs whilst WEBBOW is another that catches my imagination. However, this is a very tough contest to unravel and I shall more than likely keep my powder dry for later in the evening.

SHORTLIST

MASTER HARDY

COLLATERAL DAMAGE

WEBBOW

6:45 Santa Anita – Breeders´ Cup Juvenile Turf (Grade 2) (2yo Colts & Geldings) 1m

Gosden and Dettori won this race last year with Donativum and look to hold decent claims with the Prix Jean-Luc runner up POUNCED, who was half a length ahead of BUZZWORD. At around the same price I prefer Coolmore’s VISCOUNT NELSON who won two on the bounce before chasing home Poet’s Voice in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster. Being out of Imagine, an Oaks and Irish 1000 Guineas winner, he is a half-brother to the classy Horatio Nelson, Red Rock Canyon and Kitty Matcham, so even if he does suffer defeat on Saturday he is one to keep an eye on next season. When it comes to the American challenge I quite like the look of INTERACTIF who has won Group 3s on his last two starts. Despite the fact that he was conceding 6lbs to CODOY last time, he still beat him a length so there is no reason why the form should be reversed off level weights but his stall 11 draw is putting me off slightly. That may bring in BRIDGETOWN who had BECKY’S KITTEN well held at Woodbine in September. This is only his fourth career start, so there is evidence to believe he will continue to improve.

Selection – VISCOUNT NELSON

7:23 – Santa Anita Breeders´ Cup Turf Sprint (3yo+) 6f110y

We all remember CANONBALL from his two runs at the Royal Meeting, where his best effort came when runner up in the Golden Jubilee. Digging deeper into his American form, he should have no problems getting the extended 6f but I do worry slightly that he is slightly below top class level. I would like to see STRIKE THE DEAL run well but 5f looks to be his trip nowadays and he has been done no favours by the draw. DIAMONDRELLA is currently vying for favouritism and rightly so after winning two Group 1s this season. However, both came over a mile so you have to wonder how she will cope with the drop down in trip even though she won over 6f at the start of the year. There doesn’t appear to be any such concerns over CALIFORNIA FLAG who has won his last three starts over 5, 6 and 7F. He has had a pretty light campaign this season which looks to have been mapped out for him to improve on his modest 10th place in this race last season. I reckon he has a big chance from box 3 but the one I am most worried about is drawn one place inside him. When SILVER TIMBER started his career he looked decidedly ordinary but everything seems to have come right for him this season. He has won four of his last five starts, including two at Group 3 level, so I think he will be dangerous to discount whilst in this vein of form.

Selection – CALIFORNIA FLAG

8:10 – Santa Anita Sentient Jet Breeders´ Cup Sprint (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 6f

FLEETING SPIRIT did me a big favour when winning the July Cup and she has continued to run well since then, finishing runner up in the Haydock Sprint Cup and Prix de l’Abbaye. This filly is as tough as nails and I think 6f is her ideal trip. She looks massively over-priced at 14/1, despite her stall 9 draw, and I believe each-way punters will get a run for the money. However, the one she will have to beat is Bob Baffert’s ZENSATIONAL who is a Group 1 winning machine. His last three victories have all come at the highest level and to be honest, on neither occasion has he really been troubled. The trip looks ideal as does his draw in stall 1 and it will take a very big effort to lower his colours. Godolphin’s GAYEGO come good last time with an impressive Group 1 success over course and distance but he still has some way to go to prove that he is up to the favourite’s level. FATAL BULLET had the beating of CAPT. CANDYMAN CAN at Keeneland last month but he was receiving 4lbs and re-opposes on Saturday on 6lbs worse terms suggesting that a reverse is on the cards.

Selection – ZENSATIONAL, FLEETING SPIRIT (E/W)

8:49 – Santa Anita Grey Goose Breeders´ Cup Juvenile (Grade 1) (2yo Colts & Geldings) (Pro-Ride) 1m110y

Aidan O’Brien runs his Dewhurst winner BEETHOVEN but I am more inclined to edge towards his other runner ALFRED NOBEL. The Phoenix Stakes winner never went a yard in the heavy ground in the National Stakes but bounced back with a very credible effort in a valuable sales race at Newmarket. Murtagh had him covered up early on but when he pressed the button he swept past his rivals and was going away at the finish. The only problem was he only beat those drawn on the stand side. The ground on the far side was decidedly quicker and he had no answer to that advantage. The course and distance winning LOOKIN AT LUCKY has looked a bit special this season, winning a Group 2 and two Group 1s on his last three starts, but connections must be ruing their luck being handed a coffin box draw in 13. With that in mind the main American challenge may come from D’FUNNYBONE who has won his last two starts in Group 2 company.

NOBLE’S PROMISE is another not discounted lightly after his Group 1 success last time. Finally, if you believe in fate, could this be RADIOHEAD’s race? An impressive winner of the Norfolk Stakes in June, he was well fancied to run a big race in the Nunthorpe. As it was I thought he ran well enough to finish 3rd. But then he was beaten in the Mill Reef (by a very well regarded horse may I add) and suddenly no one wants to know him in the Middle Park where he was sent off a 14/1 outsider of five. Once again, he was no match for his Newbury conqueror Awzaan but he finished with a right old rattle beating some well thought of animals in the process. If Martin Dwyer can get him settled early on, I can see him cutting down a few in the closing stages.

Selection – ALFRED NOBEL

9:28 – Santa Anita TVG Breeders´ Cup Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Turf) 1m

GOLDIKOVA is a short price to follow up her win in this race last year and despite a blip last time in the Prix de la Foret, I think she has every chance. She hasn’t been handed the kindest of draws and therefore at 6/4 I am willing to take her on. I have never been that much of a fan of DELEGATOR as I believe he was massively over-hyped after winning an ordinary looking Craven Stakes. I was therefore not surprised to see him beaten in the English and Irish Guineas although in his defence he did run a better race when runner up in the St James’s Palace Stakes. He then beat ZACINTO in a very ordinary looking Celebration Mile but was firmly put in his place by Rip Van Winkle in the QEII. Godolphin’s horses are in a rich vein of form, so we could see some improvement but I think there is a better case to be made about their other runner GLADIATORUS. When he won in Dubai in the Winter, he was being talked about as a real superstar but Godolphin’s horses simply weren’t firing at the start of the season and he was well beaten in the Queen Anne, Jacques le Marois and Prix de Moulin. However, he bounced back last time with an impressive Group 1 success in Italy, so at around 12/1 he could prove well over priced. Richard Dutrow Jr won this race in 2007 with the classy Kip Deville and I like the look of his runner this year, COURT VISION. After a busy start to the season, he was rested over the summer before being brought back in October when he earned a hard fought Group 1 victory at Keeneland. After such a break he more than likely needed the run, so he can be expected to come on for the run on Saturday.

Selection – GLADIATORUS 

10:12 Santa Anita Breeders´ Cup Dirt Mile (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 1m

The Irish 1000 Guineas winner MASTERCRAFTSMAN has a plum draw in box 1 and probably deserves his place at the head of the betting. After a hugely consistent season, Aidan O’Brien took the sensible step of giving him a spin on the sand at Dundalk which he seemed to take to like a duck to water, running out an impressive 5L winner without too much persuasion. I have Godolphin’s MIDSHIPMAN down as his strongest rival as he looked a highly progressive colt last season culminating in victory in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile. He missed most of this season but made a belated reappearance in a modest race at Belmont in September, in which he ran out a comfortable winner, confirming that the old spark was still there. No doubt he will have done plenty of work at home since then so there should be more to come. BULLSBAY certainly can’t be discounted lightly after solid efforts on his last two starts but of the three mentioned I feel that MIDSHIPMAN offers the best value at around 6/1.

Selection – MIDSHIPMAN

10:57 Santa Anita Emirates Airline Breeders´ Cup Turf (Grade 1) (3yo+) 1m4f

There is a heavy British influence in this race, none more so than last year’s winner CONDUIT. His form figures perhaps aren’t as impressive as last season’s but he has run soundly all season, his win in the King George the highlight. He ran a belter to finish 4th in the Arc on his last start so couldn’t be arriving here better and I believe he will prove very hard to on Saturday. DAR RE MI was only a length behind him at Longchamp so I don’t think there will be a lot between then once again. Stoute’s other runner SPANISH MOON shouldn’t be classed second best as he is a hugely progressive horse in his own right. He has had a fairly light campaign after narrowly losing out to Eastern Anthem in Dubai but he was impressive when winning the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud and Prix Foy on his last two starts, suggesting that he is more than up to the job and Fallon isn’t a bad second string jockey! I think the American’s will be put to the sword here with PRESIOUS PASSION offering there only glimmer of hope. He looked a nice horse when winning over 10f here last month but whether that was enough to lower the British flag, I am not so sure.

Selection – CONDUIT 

11:45 Santa Anita Breeders´ Cup Classic (Grade 1) (3yo+) (Pro-Ride) 1m2f

Raven’s Pass won this race last year on the back of success in the QEII and RIP VAN WINKLE has a similar profile but if his stall 10 draw wasn’t enough of a worry, there have been some worrying comments coming out of the US about his well being. To me, that is enough to look to oppose him. I would love to see Henry Cecil win this with TWICE OVER but I don’t think his form stacks up to much, certainly at this level. The one I am most keen on is the five-year-old mare ZENYATTA. I have seen her a few times on TV and have been very impressed with what I have seen. She isn’t your usual looking mare, in fact unless you look closely you could easily confuse her for a colt, she is that big and powerful. She was a winner at this meeting last year, in that Ladies Classic, and from a perfect draw in stall 4 I think she will take all of the beating. If 7/2 is a bit short for you and you are looking for value, I wouldn’t rule out a big effort from GIO PONTI. His current price of around 14/1 looks massive for a horse which has won four Group 1s this season.

Selection – ZENYATTA, GIO PONTI (E/W)