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The first two ante-post advices on Snoopy Loopy and Gladiatorus didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory (sorry about that) so I am hoping for a much better showing at Cheltenham this weekend.

WEEKEND ANTE-POST ADVICES

Northern Alliance (Paddy Power Gold Cup) 12/1 Bet365, 10/1 General
Tartak (ew) (Paddy Power Gold Cup) 25/1 Hills, Stan James, Bet365
Ronaldo Des Mottes (ew) (Greatwood Hurdle) 12/1 Ladbrokes, 11/1 Bet365, 10/1 General

 
PADDY POWER GOLD CUP

As there was no ante-post race on the jumps last weekend I gave you my initial thoughts in last week’s ante-post copy and informed you I had taken a gamble that Northern Alliance and Barbers Shop would run even though there were doubts surrounding their participation which is why neither were official advices so to speak but I wanted to let you know how I was playing it. The gamble appears to have paid off with the former as I am sitting on a horse that will start at half the odds I backed him but not the latter whose connections prefer to take on Kauto Star at levels! Madness. Therefore time to firm up the ante-post advice and I suggest we take the 10/1 about NORTHERN ALLIANCE (Bet365 are 12/1 if you are lucky before they cut it) I also think it is worth having a little half-stake each-way about TARTAK at 25/1.

My argument remains the same as last week for Northern Alliance in that I think the way they ride this progressive, second-season novice (the ideal profile for the race) by attacking late with him means the handicapper will find it hard to get a reflection of his true ability and I very much got the vibe before the Kerry National that Tony Martin knew he had a very well-handicapped horse on his hands and, as he was only produced to only lead on the run-in, I reckon they still may well have a nicely treated horse. The fact they were mulling over running him in the Grade 1 race won by The Listener at the weekend also suggests that Martin thinks he could still be very nicely in here.

There are some potential negatives being banded about so let’s deal with those as I don’t think they are worth worrying about too much. Firstly, he was a bit disappointing over the course in the Jewson when fourth when well-fancied but that wasn’t that bad run at all and especially considering the yard just weren’t firing all week. The second potential negative is the yard’s recent record in Britain as they haven’t had a winner over here for 18 months which is a heck of a long time given what a superb record they had over here up to then. I am not sure that is anything to worry about as the stable weren’t in great form at all last season but have been in much better form this season which explains plenty of that. Some will point the drop in trip to be a worry as he ran on too late in the Jewson but won the Kerry National over 3m. Again, that does not concern me, in fact I think it’s a positive as rain is forecast so it could turn soft by off time in which case his 3m form will be a big bonus especially against some of the other leading fancies like Poquelin and Tarotino who would not want it soft and it would also test the stamina of Tatenen. Some will also point out that there has not been an Irish-trained Paddy Power Gold Cup winner since 1980 but I treat that as more of a coincidence than anything else as there is no obvious reason for the lack of success. My biggest concern is that it looks likely that Ruby Walsh will be on Poquelin (or Tatenen if he is a NR due to the ground) and not Northern Alliance as he rode him beautifully to win last time out. It would appear Walsh can only get off Nicholls horses for Willie Mullins so it will be interesting to see who they turn to, hopefully Paul Carberry whose quiet, patient riding style would be ideal for him.

I do think that Tartak is also worth a little each-way dabble at 25/1 as too much has been read into his last-of-eight comeback run in the Grade 2 Old Roan Chase at Aintree and there has been an over-reaction in his price. I think this is a nailing good chaser who simply lost his confidence after a bad mistake at the third fence when Sam Thomas asked for a big one and that was that. I can tell you now that Tartak has schooled very well since and they put that error down to Thomas not knowing the horse as he is far better when allowing him to do his own thing popping away rather than asking him a question. Don’t forget that Tartak actually started favourite for that far-better quality handicap than the Paddy Power Gold Cup (admittedly not as competitive though) and he also ran well over an inadequate 2m in the Arkle when a 10 lengths’ fifth after meeting a troubled passage as he really wants 2m4f. I don’t doubt he is probably better on a flat track and not open to as much improvement as some of the lower weights but I fancy him to run a big race all the same and 25/1 is overpriced as he also handles soft ground which is looking likely and stays further but a rating of 154 is not insurmountable when we consider he easily put the Charlie Hall winner Deep Purple to the sword at last season’s Grand National Meeting and comfortably beat Tarotino at Huntingdon at around this time last year. At 25/1 he is worth a little each-way sniff.

I’ve taken the view that Poquelin and Chapoturgeon have it to do off significantly higher marks than when last successful though respect the latter given his owner loves the race and I am sure this has been the only plan for him and his owner has also left the top weight Our Vic in to keep the weights down. Their stablemate, Tatenen, is likely to shorten if the forecast rain arrives so is a possible back-to-lay option as I write but I was just disappointed in him as a specimen last season (had nothing behind the saddle when I saw him for the Arkle so I will be interested to see what he looks like in the prelims) and think he is soft and not one for a battle. From Dusk To Dawn has won his last two starts on the track over hurdles but ran no more than just alright when third in big summer prize at Market Rasen when returning to fences and will need to step up considerably on that. I am sure returning to Cheltenham will help but he wouldn’t want it turning too soft which is offputting for his chance until we know the ground. I’m So Lucky would have been interesting at a big price on good ground but 2m4f on rain-softened surface is likely to stretch him. Of the others at up to 20/1, Bible Lord jumped better for a new jockey but has failed at this level too many times and looks one for smaller fields and Tranquil Sea looked good first out but that was also the case last season and he went off the boil so a single-figure price is too tight for me. My Petra is half-interesting as Henderson prefers to run her instead of Barbers Shop who I was a big fan for the race and she is deliberately jazzed up early in the season as she reportedly has a habit of coming into season in the spring. The value looks to have dried up about her though as it has Tarotino who I give a right good chance to if the rain stays away but he may not get his ground. If he does get decent ground he is a big danger to all and worth looking at on the day for sure.

 
GREATWOOD HURDLE

The first show for Harry Tricker of 10/1 lasted all of half an hour and the best you can get now after his runaway win at Sandown is 5/1 which is much more realistic under just a 5lbs penalty in what looks a modest running of the race that often supplies Champion Hurdle clues but probably not this year. Considering that the king of the 2m handicap hurdles, Gary Moore, said after his victory over the in-form Zabeel Palace with a mile back to the third that: “I would have been very surprised had he been beaten today” that strongly suggested he knew he had a very well handicapped horse on his hands in Harry Tricker so basically he still does off just a 5lbs higher mark so the concerns are whether he can back that run up after an eight-day break, whether the novelty of first-time cheekpieces at Sandown have worn off and whether he will enjoy the likely soft ground by Sunday. It certainly wasn’t a 10/1 shot that he could overcome those worries and there may still some value in that 5/1 that Moore can win this race for the second year running after Numide won 12 months ago. He is by far the most likely winner.

The horse I have backed at 12/1 is RONALDO DES MOTTES who is very interesting indeed as David Pipe won the Silver Trophy with a four-year-old at Chepstow on his seasonal return by 15 lengths and his old man used to love to lay out a novice or virtual novice for this race in his pomp and I noted Timmy Murphy was jocked up for this race almost immediately which suggests he has been aimed at this race. It looks like the ground may turn genuine soft by Sunday which will help this Frenchie who beat the subsequent ‘Fred Winter’ winner Silk Affair on his British debut, then beat the subsequent Aintree Grade 2 winner El Dancer on his next start before finishing second to Nictory Vote who I felt would have won the ‘Fred Winter’ but injury forced him to miss the race. All three runs are strong pieces of novice form and you may remember I also put him up in my Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Portfolio for the ‘Fred Winter’ where he bombed out totally. His bumper form in France before that has also turned out to be top class. I don’t think the track was the problem at the Festival in March, it was the yard that was the problem as David Pipe had a shocking Festival but he has made a much better start to this season than last year. Pipe put that poor run down to having to get three quick runs into him to qualify for the ‘Fred Winter’ so he ran up light on the day and I can buy that excuse. I’m certain he is much better than a 134-rated horse and will love soft ground whereas the same comment can not be guaranteed for Harry Tricker. Pipe reports him as one “not to carry a lot of condition” so I don’t see him failing for lack of fitness. I actually had him down as a dark one that could win two or three valuable handicaps for my Racing Post Ten to Follow entry but he is not even in the list of 400 horses to choose from! I’ve gone each-way as I have plenty of respect for the favourite.

James De Vassy is the current second-favourite and he hails from a yard I seriously respect (Nick Williams) and is a progressive, young in-form hurdler so have time for his chance but nothing else in the race really grabs me. The Irish have entered in numbers but the British hurdles handicapper has crucified them in the last 12 months whacking their marks up significantly and boy did they struggle (there is a different handicapper for chases) with only Ninetieth Minute winning any handicap hurdle of note where he raced off his Irish mark which was rare so I am struggling to support any of their runners. I also am not interested in the third-favourite Medermit who will be seen in a much better light on fast ground so I can’t be having him off top weight (Starluck is a non-runner) particularly as some of the yard’s horses are needing their first runs and he goes chasing after this so I have his 8/1 quote down as rank bad value.

As for some of the others towards the top end of the market, Khyber Kim and Red Moloney prefer flat tracks, El Dancer is badly in at the weights with Ronaldo Des Mottes from when they met last season and was beaten and Mutual Friend won too well here in October and has gone up plenty taking on better rivals.