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Hello and welcome to the 2009/10 National Season Betting Guide updates. Although being a new name to the majority of our subscribers the format of these updates will remain basically the same. By applying the most consistent trends that have arisen over the last decade it is hoped that we can formulate a shortlist of horses to go to war with. From this shortlist it is obviously best then to consider the variable elements such as ground, trainer form etc…

PADDY POWER GOLD CUP – Cheltenham, Saturday 14th November

I’ll be honest with you, this looks a sub-standard renewal of the first big betting race of the season. If you take the first two home last year, Imperial Commander and Barber’s Shop, both were very progressive individuals but I’d be surprise if there’s anything in this year’s field to match either of them. A further problem for us is the weather. Heavy rain has been forecast at Cheltenham and this is likely to turn into a real test.

Six and seven-years have held sway in recent years. Ruby Walsh’s mount POQUELIN, Irish fancy TRANQUIL SEA, Alan King’s TAROTINO and David Pipe’s I’M SO LUCKY are just a few that hit the mark. Five-year-olds are yet to win but their record is none too shabby so CHAPOTUGEON couldn’t be dismissed lightly from an age perspective.

The betting is normally our friend here with 7 of the last 10 emerging from the top 3 in the market. Looking at the latest best prices we see they read as follows: 6/1 TRANQUIL SEA, 7/1 CHAPOTURGEON, 8/1 BALLYFITZ and TATENEN.

TRANQUIL SEA is a horse I really like but the Irish have a particularly average record here so along with NORTHERN ALLIANCE I’m going to take him on. Considering they are 6/1 and 11/1 respectively in the market this will look either inspired or foolish come 2.45pm on Saturday!

From a trainer’s point of view Philip Hobbs (FROM DAWN TO DUSK) and Ferdy Murphy (THREE MIRRORS) have records that merit respect, especially the former from a place perspective. Paul Nicholls has been out of luck in this race but it’s not without trying and to be fair he’s had a couple of fallers when going well. This could be his year this time with CHAPOTURGEON, POQUELIN and TATENEN running for him.

Course form is paramount here. OUR VIC, KNOWHERE, CHAPOTURGEON and POQUELIN are all course and distance winners while TATENEN, BALLYFITZ and FROM DAWN TO DUSK have also won round here. Although the later did so over hurdles.

Add into the mix form over the trip and these two trends should help us no end in whittling down the runners. TATENEN, MY PETRA, POP and LESLINGTAYLOR are the only runners not proven over this trip, or further.

The rating band 130-139 have dominated this in recent times winning 6 of the last 10 races. 7 such horses fit this trend this year, I’M SO LUCKY, POP, THREE MIRRORS, LESLINGTAYLOR, FROM DAWN TO DUSK and HOLD EM.

SHORTLIST

CHAPOTURGEON
POQUELIN
(FROM DAWN TO DUSK)
(BALLYFITZ)

CONCLUSION

This hasn’t been a lucky race for Paul Nicholls down the years but that could all be about to change. CHAPOTURGEON is a previous course winner and distance winner thanks to his victory in the Jewson at last season’s Festival whilst also occupying a top 3 place in the betting and he finished in the top 2 last time out. He has plenty going for him despite being 18lbs higher than when winning said race at the Festival but that isn’t really a concern of the trends.

Stable mate POQUELIN won the informative Zeturf Chase at the track on his last start. Many feel he’s ruined his handicap mark as a result but with him being the right age, a six-year-old, and with a CD success on his CV he’s the choice of Ruby Walsh and that is an extra pointer in our favour. *Paul Nicholls has been on record saying that he must have good ground so there is every likelihood the way the weather has been that he could be declared a non-runner*

After these two there isn’t much between the rest but with e/w the first 4 it could pay to chance a couple more. BALLYFITZ is a course winner and a distance winner and has been well supported in the week to leave him currently joint third favourite. He has enough about him to make him think he can figure.

The final place on the shortlist goes to FROM DAWN TO DUSK. He posed a bit of issue for me as he’s a ten-year-old and they have a poor record in this race. However, of those rated 130-139 he performs the best on the other trends seeing as he has a previous distance winner already in the bag and the fact he has tasted success at the track twice before (although admittedly those victories came over hurdles) means he couldn’t be confidently dismissed. He also hails from the Philip Hobbs yard whose record in the race over the last ten years reads 0-5-9 so this one looks to have serious place possibilities.

Of the remainder, TAROTINO is missing a previous course success while TRANQUIL SEA is another missing an all important course win and he suffers from the fact he’s Irish. TATENEN is unproven over the trip and TARTAK hasn’t convinced in his previous tries at Prestbury Park and that is backed up by the fact he’s never won here.

GREATWOOD HURDLE – Cheltenham, Sunday 15th November

This has been won by some real stars over the years but this year’s race, MEDERMIT aside, looks shy of recent renewals.

Five-year-olds have really stamped their authority on this race so it would follow that this age group should be the focus of our attention. MEDERMIT, EL DANCER, SECRET TUNE, SILVERHAND, TRAMP STAMP, GLENSTAL ABBEY and HARRY TICKER hit the mark. Following on from this normally a progressive individual would emerge on top and those that have raced 5 times or less over timber hold sway. Only RONALDO DES MOTTES, JAMES DE VASSY and COCKNEY TRUCKER have achieved this although both EL DANCER and TRAMP STAMP have raced just 6 times.

With the race having an impressive roll of honour it follows that those rated 140-149 are normally solid. RAISE YOUR HEART, MEDERMIT, EL DANCER, KHYBER KIM and SIMARIAN are the 5 horses from the band in the line up. Along with the rating trend, those that finished in the top 2 last time out, preferably in a Listed event or better, should be given an extra mention. TRAMP STAMP is the only member of the field to hit this mark thanks to a 2nd place finish at Listed level last time out. A previous victory at Graded level is another strong pointer as it highlights the class of an individual. MEDERMIT, EL DANCER, SIMARIAN and TRAMP STAMP all have a Graded win on their CVs whilst RAISE YOUR HEART is a former Listed winner.

The only trainer to really focus on is Philip Hobbs who saddles COCKNEY TRUCKER but of more interest to us is the Irish challenge. RAISE YOUR HEART, SILVERHAND, TRAMP STAMP, GLENSTAL ABBEY, SALUTE HIM and HEARTHSTEAD DREAM all travel across the water for this and they merit serious respect.

SHORTLIST

TRAMP STAMP
(RAISE YOUR HEART)
(EL DANCER)

CONCLUSION

Well, the first shock of the season is supplied by Irish raider TRAMP STAMP. I’ll admit to not knowing much about her, or her trainer, but there is no denying her trends performance. She’s five-years-old, trained in Ireland, she finished in the top two last time out (at Listed level) and she’s a previous Graded winner. In terms of her previous outings over timber, she’s raced six times so only misses the cut off point by one and, in truth, is a very strong performer. Her graded success came on heavy ground so should conditions get really testing at least we know she’ll handle them. Looking back through her form she has warmed up for this event nicely so at around 25/1 I don’t think we have too much to lose.

After Matthieu Palussiere’s runner we have three runners that perform equally well. There isn’t much between RAISE YOUR HEART, MEDERMIT and EL DANCER. The top three in the weights are virtually identical performers on our trends in one way or another. RAISE YOUR HEART has been in cracking form both on the level and over timber and being the right rating, trained in Ireland and a winner last time out means his credentials are strong. However the British runners are both five-years-old, rated correctly and both are previous Grade 2 winners. I’m going to excluded MEDERMIT from our shortlist though on account of this being his first race of the season and a real slog in the mud won’t be ideal with connections eyeing a potential future chase campaign for him this year. Alan King has been on record saying that his string are maybe a week or two behind so the fitness advantage that EL DANCER has having run at Chepstow last month should count for plenty.

The current market leaders are HARRY TICKER and RONALDO DES MOTTES but both are light weight on the trends and don’t put forward a very convincing case.