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Saturday Service number 2 of the season returns this week for a high quality card at Newbury. The action is well supported up at Newcastle and then the following day over at Fairyhouse. The last service saw 3 winners along with a couple of near misses, most notably Earth Planet who ran well in defeat when finishing 2nd at 12/1.

SATURDAY

12.25 Newbury
The favourite has won this in 7 of the last 10 years so follow the market! At this stage it looks a tricky race to try and work out although there was plenty to like about SERETH’s win on his hurdles debut the other day. He picks up a penalty for that so whether he can concede weight to the likes of FINIAN’S RAINBOW and HIGHEST START is another question. At this stage he does bring a strong case to the table though.

SERETH

1.00 Newbury
BE DEFINITE is interesting but for me this is between two, FISTRAL BEACH and QUINZ. Both make their chase debuts in this event but you can rest assured that both will have been extensively schooled at home and the thing that grabs me about both is that their trainers clearly have exciting prospect on their hands but both are electing to by-pass the easier assignments of novice chases to pitch them in handicap company. This tells me that both think their runners are well handicapped and want a crack at the first prize of £11,000+ rather than a novice chase / beginners’ chase with a purse of around £5,000 at a lesser track.

FISTRAL BEACH
QUINZ

1.35 Newbury
Age and weight are the two main trends here with six, seven or eight-year-olds paired with the maximum weight of 11st 8lbs looking the ultimate combination. With just the 7 declared for this it is no surprise that only 2 horses meet these two trends, BIG BUCKS and DUC DE REGNIERE. Nicky Henderson is the main trainer to have on side in this race so DUC DE REGNIERE earns another positive, although Howard Johnson’s record with Inglis Drever means NO REFUGE is worth a second look too. All of the runners are proven over the trip so there’s no need to take a chance on anyone’s stamina and all of the runners are Class 1 winners, although NACARAT’s win came over fences. The World Hurdle is unsurprisingly a strong pointer to this and so BIG BUCKS (1st), BLAZING BAILEY (8th) and NO REFUGE (10th) are the main three.

BIG BUCKS
DUC DE REGNIERE

It’s no surprise to see BIG BUCKS top the trends. His only blemish last year came on this day when he unseated Sam Thomas at the last fence in the Hennessy. The switch back to hurdles in the aftermath of that race saw him win 4 straight races and on both form and trends he looks very solid in this race. However I am going to put up another on the shortlist in the shape of DUC DE REGNIERE. Nicky Henderson’s seven-year-old won this race last year and although he didn’t contest last year’s World Hurdle his trainer means he equals BIG BUCKS on the trends. A couple of Paul Nicholls’ runners have just been needing the run so far this year and if BB does fail to deliver then this guy looks best placed to capitalise.

1.50 Newcastle
BINOCULAR vs. SOLWHIT? I don’t think it’s that simple but I do believe that the fact McCoy has turned down Newbury’s Hennessy meeting to come here shows us not only how highly he rates BINOCULAR but also QUANTITATIVEEASING in the 2.25 on the same card. That said SOLWHIT has improve beyond recognition in the last twelve months and connections appear very bullish. For me I’m going to take a chance on GO NATIVE. Ok on ratings he has plenty to find with the big 2 but from his point of view the ground will be ideal and I think we can ignore his latest defeat at Down Royal when his trainer has admitted he was ‘under cooked’. The e/w is only the first 2 home but if something does go wrong with the 2 market leaders then 20/1 could look big.

GO NATIVE e/w

2.05 Newbury
At first glance this looks very tricky but in truth I think it just boils down to a handful. OR BLEU is the first one to interest me but I think he’ll probably be all the better for this run and so the horse that comprehensively beat him last time out, AU COURANT, needs attention. He’s been pulled up on two of his last four starts and has clearly had his fair share of problems but he’s proved he can go well fresh in the past so he’s on the shortlist. The other one to catch my eye is POP. He finished last season by failing to complete in two starts but that doesn’t tell the whole story. He fell at Cheltenham when going well in the Festival Plate and was then pulled up a month later when perhaps not completely over his fall. With a summer off his confidence should be restored and I can see him going well off a feasible mark. The only other one I can see getting involved is ISN’T THAT LUCKY who was second in the Jewson last year and finds himself just 3lb higher this afternoon.

AU COURANT
POP
ISN’T THAT LUCKY

2.40 Newbury
I’m sure I’m not alone in nominating this as one of my favourite races of the whole season and over the last few years the trends have proved very informative. Last year Madison Du Berlais shot them to bits in some respects however so let’s see what they throw up this year. The main three trends focus around firstly age, and then what season a horse is in over fences followed by its performance last time out. We need to focus on six and seven-year-olds who are in their second season over fences and who finished in the first two on their last start. If we apply these three trends to all the runners then only WHAT A FRIEND and KILLYGLEN match all three and CAPPA BLEU and KORNATI KID match two. With second season chasers having such a good record both the RSA and Mildmay novice chases from the previous season need a second look. The former takes place at Cheltenham and it saw WHAT A FRIEND (6th) prove best of the bunch as KILLYGLEN, GONE TO LUNCH and BALLYFITZ were all pulled up. However, KILLYGLEN bounced back to form when landing the Mildmay at Aintree the following month. Another trend that follows on from this is the fact that a ‘normal’ winner of this would have had 11 or fewer starts over fences coming into this. Once again WHAT A FRIEND and KILLYGLEN hit this trend and they are joined by the likes of BARBERS SHOP, AN ACCORDION, GONE TO LUNCH, CAPPA BLEU, BALLYFITZ, KORNATI KID and OFFSHORE ACCOUNT. Paul Nicholls is normally never far away in this race and so DENMAN, MY WILL and WHAT A FRIEND automatically qualifier for respect. Others that we should be interested in are the Evan Williams pair of CAPPA BLEU and STATE OF PLAY along with SNOWY MORNING who represents Willie Mullins. Only NEW ALCO is lacking a win over a distance of around 3m but he has some solid place form at the distance so all of the declared runners would appear ok when it comes to the trip. The final trend concerns the betting and it is normally a decent guide. The top 3 in the market is the place to look and at the time of writing DENMAN leads both BARBERS SHOP and WHAT A FRIEND.

WHAT A FRIEND
KILLYGLEN
(CAPPA BLEU)
(KORNATI KID)

WHAT A FRIEND dominates the trends for this as he hits every one! From a trends perspective he is just about as good as they come and there is very little to add other than to say he looks to have outstanding claims of giving his trainer his third win in the race. Not far behind him is KILLYGLEN and in fact the only way he is behind our top choice is the fact he isn’t trained by Nicholls and he doesn’t currently sit in the first 3 in the betting. That said he is trading at about 8/1 so he’s not far away. As dominant as the first two were on the trends the same could be said for both CAPPA BLEU and KORNATI KID in pulling away from the others. Both seven-year-olds they are second season chasers with form over a trip with fewer than 11 chase starts under their belts. Although the latter is slightly out the handicap they make a strong case and couldn’t be left out. As for the remainder, well, much of the talk is about DENMAN but we can’t support him based on the trends while both SNOWY MORNING and WAR ATTRITION have lovely racing weights and look massively overpriced at 25/1 and 33/1 respectively. However, like the 2007 winner before them, we can’t go with them on a purely trends basis. Probably the next best on our trends after the first 4 would be BARBERS SHOP and this is a meeting his trainer loves so a big run would come as no surprise.

2.55 Newcastle
I like ITS TEESCOMPONENTS here. Although not the best race ever she shaped nicely over an inadequate trip at Hexham earlier this month and from the same handicap mark here she looks sure to go well. SEEK THE TRUTH and TREE HOUSE are both up in the handicap after recent wins so Keith Reveley’s runner could be the better treated of the fancied contenders.

ITS TEESCOMPONENTS

3.15 Newbury
Tricky, very tricky. DANI’S GIRL has really flourished since joining Padge Phelan but an 8lb higher mark for her recent win at Ascot will not make life easy, but she is very progressive. FAIRYLAND continues to run well but there is every chance she might find one or two that are too good for her. SHAMARI and FRONTIER DANCER are both unexposed in this sphere and of the pair preference would be for the former who despite being outclassed in top novice events last term makes obvious appeal on his first run in handicap company. NAMPOUR, MICHAEL FLIPS and TRAFALGAR ROAD all have the benefit of a run behind them and all look capable of getting involved. As I say, this looks very tricky and I’d want to keep stakes to a minimum. The shortlist proposed is very tentative.

DANI’S GIRL
SHAMARI

3.25 Newcastle
NOZIC is the class horse here and must concede plenty of weight. However he is just 1lb higher than when winning the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby on Boxing Day last year so isn’t without a chance. It is fair to say that HORNER WELLS will be spot on for this after running over hurdles at Naas last month so merits respect whilst COE remains interestingly, if not necessarily attractively, handicapped at present and he too requires a second look. The one for me though is CHIEF DAN GEORGE who had a nice blow over 2m 4f at Carlisle at the start of the month and who looks the type to be a real force in the staying chases this term.

CHIEF DAN GEORGE
HORNER WELLS e/w

3.45 Newbury
SCOTS DRAGOON has been pulled up on his last 3 starts over fences so he’s a ‘no’ for me right away despite his improved form over hurdles of late. SHILLINGSTONE graduated from the Hunter chase ranks to win a Kempton handicap on his seasonal debut so although 8lb higher this afternoon there is every chance that there is plenty more to come from him. The only other one that would appeal is Nick Williams’ THE REAL DEAL. He was third over hurdles on his last start in a real slog at Chepstow and as long as that hasn’t taken too much out of him his mark of 121 gives him hope.

SHILLINGSTONE
THE REAL DEAL

SUNDAY

1.00 Fairyhouse
DUNGUIB continues to go from strength to strength and it seems very unlikely that he will lose his unbeaten tag in this race. SWEEPS HILL is the obvious one for the forecast but it’s always good to see a top notch horse continue to produce the goods and so I hope DUNGUIB can continue his awesome form.

DUNGUIB

1.30 Fairyhouse
Ok so PANDORAMA will no doubt prove far better going left handed but there is no way he should be 7/1 for this. Beaten just once under rules, by Mikael D’Haguenet last December, he won on his chase debut at Punchestown last month and although he did jump markedly left there wasn’t anything ‘wrong’ as such with his jumping. This is a tough contest but he looks a tad overpriced to me. CHINA ROCK is a horse I really like but he ideally needs better ground that this, although that said I can see him running into a place over this trip, along with WHATUTHINK. He scored at the second time of asking at Thurles at the start of the month and, like so many in the field, should be open to plenty of improvement.

PANDORAMA

2.05 Fairyhouse
HARDY EUSTACE, AITMATOV, CATCH ME. We have some real stalwarts of the Irish national hunt scene going to post here but I think they could all be eclipsed by NINETIETH MINUTE. He was third behind Aitmatov on his seasonal debut and I think he will be improve plenty for that run against a horse that even his trainer admits is better fresh. Tom Taaffe’s runner has been very progressive over the last twelve months and even lowered the colours of Solwhit during a 3 race winning run that culminated in success at the Cheltenham Festival. Along with OSCAR DAN DAN he looks one who could yet prove better than we have seen thus far. Also, Willie Mullins has his yard in cracking form at present so at around 14/1 there could be worse e/w shots than SHAKERVILZ who is out for the first time since finishing fourth behind Fiveforthree at Punchestown in April.

NINETIETH MINUTE
SHAKERVILZ e/w