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Go Native did us all a favour when landing 25/1 odds up at Newcastle the last time we were all here but overall I was ever so slightly disappointed that a couple of other fancies just went astray. Still, once Fairyhouse went ahead later in the week we saw a decent performance from Pandorama, although his 9/4 SP was disappointing seeing as he was 7/1 had the race been run on the weekend!

Cheltenham 12.10
Hardly a great surprise to see a novice event that is tough to work out open the card at Cheltenham. The booking of Ruby Walsh catches the eye on ULTIMATE but the flat track at Huntingdon is a different kettle of fish to this track and so it may pay to look pass him and instead attention turns to BACCALAUREATE. This is his first run over hurdles but this French recruit should be at home on the soft ground and he looks the safest call.

BACCALAUREATE e/w

Cheltenham 12.45
INCHIDALY ROCK couldn’t have done the job any easier when winning on his chase debut at Exeter last month and he can endorse his RSA credentials here with another success (his current 33/1 price may look big come the end of this). He comfortably beat HEY BIG SPENDER that day and with Colin Tizzard’s runner going on to land a handicap last weekend it shows what a good performance it was from the Paul Nicholls horse. ZEMSKY must clearly be respected but at this stage it is hard to look past the selection.

INCHIDALY ROCK

Doncaster 1.00
All eyes will be on CESARE here as he makes his first start over hurdles. However, I can’t tip him with any confidence as there’s no telling how he’ll fare over timber. A watching brief is advised, especially at a likely short price.

Cheltenham 1.15
FRENCH OPERA and SA SUFFIT look the main two. The former represents a stable in good form while the latter appears to be a very progressive individual. Both seem obvious sorts. However, for a spot of value, I’m going to risk an each-way punt on FRED’S BENEFIT. Formally trained by Willie Mullins he has his first run for David Pipe here and while you couldn’t exactly say he’s well handicapped we’ve seen many an Irish horse dispel the theory that they’re hard done by. He’s 9lb higher than when last seen finishing fourth at Punchestown in April and with proven form over the trip and the ground I’m happy to give him a chance.

FRED’S BENEFIT e/w

Cheltenham 1.50
THE MINACK and LORD GENEROUS merit obvious respect here but TELL MASINI looks sure to be a tough nut to crack. His 8 length win in Grade 2 company last time out was impressive enough to see him now trade at a general 14/1 shot for Festival glory in the spring. Proven on this ground he looks a dour staying in the making (without that sounding like a bad thing) and he should take all the beating. The clear fly in the ointment here is MON MOME but you couldn’t really recommend him after being pulled up in the Hennessy last time out.

TELL MASINI

Lingfield 2.00
MASSASOIT has to make up 2 ¾ lengths with BURTON POINT on their Exeter run last month and has 4lbs to try and make that possible here. I think Burton Point was flattered to get so close to Diamond Harry when he switched back to hurdles on his last start and with the Nicholls runner having had a bit extra time to get over their last clash I would give him the tentative nod. But there’s not much in it.

MASSASOIT

Doncaster 2.10
This looks a very tricky race but I may well split stakes between two, SUPREME DUKE and ORDRE DE BATAILLE. The former should be competitive from his new mark having been dropped 3lb after a third placed finish on his seasonal debut at Kempton. This could be a little too tough for him but he certainly has a chance. As for Henry Daly’s runner, he is another that has been dropped a couple of pounds after a third place finish on his last start. This quicker ground will be far more suitable than what he encountered last time and he has a squeak from a fair mark. POP, who I put up last time, should be all the better for that run and he would be one I’d half an eye on too.

SUPREME DUKE
ORDRE DE BATAILLE

Cheltenham 2.25
The strongest trends concerning this race revolve around age, last time out finish, course form and the betting. In summary, we need a six, seven or eight-year-old that finished in the first three last time out, that has previous form at Cheltenham and that isn’t the favourite. At this stage with have a three way tie for favouritism with CHAPOTURGEON, POQUELIN and ATOUCHBETWEENACARA all heading the market so with this in mind just two horses hit the ‘big 3’, RAZOR ROYALE and HOLD EM. The rating bands are slightly open to debate on this race with 130-139s holding the best record with 140-149s snapping at their heels. With this in mind it is perhaps an area to skip over rather than dwell on. The Irish are worth a mention in this race as their record is highly respectable which means SKY’S THE LIMIT and JAYO need a second look. Both are the right age and a big run from either wouldn’t really be a huge surprise, especially in light of Tranquil Sea’s victory in the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

RAZOR ROYALE
(HOLD EM)
(POQUELIN)

CONCLUSION
By far the best horse on the trends is the Nigel Twiston-Davies trained RAZOR ROYALE. Not only does he hit the three big pluses but he is also a winner this season and is rated 140. Ok so I’ve commented that ratings are perhaps not something to get hung up about but the fact he falls bang in the middle of the two main rating bands can only be a good thing. HOLD EM sneaks into the bottom of the handicap and although not as solid as our main selection has plenty in his favour. He has finished 3rd on his last three handicap runs at this track and looks a reliable each-way option. POQUELIN is currently one of the market leaders but ATOUCHBETWEENACARA has been the money horse all week and I’d fancy him to start a clear favourite to allow us the chance to include Poquelin on the shortlist. Forgetting his market position then he actually performs very strongly on the trends and although his trainer Paul Nicholls has never won the race he has a very good place record. Although this is a very competitive heat I’m going to stick with just the three horse shortlist as the remainder are very evenly matched. I would be tempted to include one of the Irish runners on the list but both are pretty similar so to include one would mean I’d have to do the other. CHAPOTURGEON was a faller on his last start so he misses the key ‘top three last time out’ trend while the emission of ATOUCHBETWEENACARA has already been touched on. FROM DAWN TO DUSK would be the only other runner that is currently pushing hard for inclusion but his age lets him down slightly. However, I still fancy him to run a good race at a nice price.

Doncaster 2.45
MY PETRA represents a stable in good form and her rather poor figures don’t tell the whole story. Ok she was pulled up in the Paddy Power last time out with her ‘P’ on her previous start a result of her taking the wrong course at Wetherby. She would probably have won that Listed event so off a mark of 137 on good ground she looks sure to go well here. This is competitive but she does have a little touch of class.

MY PETRA

Cheltenham 3.05
The trends seem to echo what the betting tells us at this stage as last year’s Champion Hurdle 1-2, PUNJABI and CELESTIAL HALO, emerge on top.  Both are the correct rating, both finished in the first three last time out and both are previous Grade 1 winners.  All seven of the runners here carry a penalty so that nullifies that trend but with both heading the market that only adds weight to their argument. As for the remainder, Irish challenger EBADIYAN doesn’t fare too badly on the trends all things considered but his latest effort at Naas leaves him with a bit to prove. So, with that in mind, KHYBER KYM and MEDERMIT look the solid options against the main two. Both ran in the Greatwood Hurdle which has proved a good pointer to this contest down the years while both are previous Graded winners with top three finishes last time out. Of the pair I would favour Alan King’s runner but that is only my preference.

CELESTIAL HALO
PUNJABI

CONCLUSION
A decent field for what is normally a very informative Champion Hurdle trial. No surprises for guessing the two that emerge top on the trends but that’s how it goes sometimes. Of the remainder KHYBER KYM would, strictly speaking, shade MEDERMIT for third best with EBADIYAN not that far behind the pair.

Doncaster 3.20
Two against the field are THAT’S RHYTHM and AURORAS ENCORE. Both will love this ground and with both being lightly raced sorts there should be plenty more to offer. This race appeals as a perfectly winnable contest for both and with latter being around the 14/1 mark is also worth backing e/w. The Philip Hobbs pair of Parsons Legacy and Boychuk look contenders along with Wind Instrument and Laskari but I’m happy with my two against the field.

THAT’S RHYTHM
AURORAS ENCORE e/w

Cheltenham 3.40
SHALONE couldn’t have done much more by winning all of his last three starts. However, ZAYNAR is a different class and after an impressive victory on his seasonal reappearance it is difficult to see him getting beat here. He can cement his position near the top of Champion Hurdle ante-post lists

ZAYNAR