bettrends.co.uk

CORAL WELSH NATIONAL – Chepstow, 28th December 2009

Seven-year-olds have won the last two renewals and although you wouldn’t want to be getting carried away on that fact alone it means they have won four and seen seven placed runs from 34 total runners in the last decade. This would swim against the tide of conventional wisdom in these sorts of races as most staying races would tend to favour the older runners. However, even the six-year-olds run well in this race and so KORNATI KID, LE BEAU BAI, OPERATION HOUDINI, COE, SILVER BY NATURE and ZACHAROVA all appear to be the correct age. At the other end of the scale those aged in double figures have a poor record with those aged ten-years or older failing to win in the last ten renewals despite 44 runners.

Once again the champion trainer, Paul Nicholls, rather unsurprisingly, is the man to have on your side as his two victories would signal. In 2005 he produced the remarkable feat of saddling L’Aventure, Heros Collonges and Cornish Rebel to finish 1-2-3 and although he was out of luck last year from a win perspective he still managed to saddle the second (CORNISH SETT) and the fourth (Officier De Reserve). This afternoon CORNISH SETT bids to go one place better but stablemates THE TOTHER ONE and NOZIC might have something to say about that. Alan King has a perfectly respectable record here, helped by the exploits of HALCON GENELARDAIS in recent years. However he clearly knows what sort of horse it takes to figure here and so OUR BENNY must also be respected today.

On the other side of the fence Philip Hobbs is maybe one to avoid as he’s had just one placed effort form nine runners, which isn’t good news for supporters of KORNATI KID and DREAM ALLIANCE. As for the Irish, well, Notre Pere became the first ever Irish trained winner in the history of the race when he scored last year and so you’d have to say that we should treat their sole representative this afternoon, OPERATION HOUDINI, with a degree of caution.

In the last ten years the ground has never been quicker than an official description of ‘good to soft’. That occurred in 2005 but all 9 other renewals have been on ground softer than that and so stamina is a real issue here. Every single one of the last ten winners had previous winning form over 3m or more and it would seem silly to chance a horse’s stamina in a test like this. Notre Pere, MIKO DE BEAUCHENE and L’Aventure had all won over 3m but the remaining seven winners this decade had winning form over distances in excess of 3m.

Form is all important here and seven of the last ten winners finished in the first two last time out. Four out of seven were actually winners so a victory on a horse’s most recent start is certainly no bad thing either. BALLYFITZ, LE BEAU BAI, OPERATION HOUDINI and SILVER BY NATURE were all winners the last time they set foot on the race track.

Although they provided us with the most runners during the time period, horses rated 130-139 lead the way here with six winners in the last decade and twelve placed efforts. This is probably due in no uncertain way to the weight this sort of rated animal will be carrying. Only 2 winners have carried 11st or more to success here recently (Notre Pere last year and HALCON GENELARDAIS in 2006) and so a rating of around 135-140 will equate to a racing weight of roughly mid-10st in a ‘normal’ year. That would make sense really as you’d like to think logic dictates that a light weight would hold some sort of advantage in a race run over 3m 5f+ on seasonally soft ground.

Silver Birch is the only winner in the last ten years to have done so having been sent off first choice of punters. The facts remain that this isn’t a great race for the market leader, but an average SP of just over 9/1 isn’t too off putting. At the time of writing LE BEAU BAI and THE TOTHER ONE are strong at the head of the market and look sure to go off at the end of affairs, in terms of the market.

SHORTLIST
LE BEAU BAI
THE TOTHER ONE
OPERATION HOUDINI
COE

CONCLUSION
LE BEAU BAI scores so well on many of the trends being of the right age, a last time out winner, racing off a feasible weight and with apparent stamina to burn judged on his victory over 3m5f at Warwick last February. Those who witnessed his 21 length demolition of his 13 rivals here at the start of December immediately marked him down as a leading contender for this race and he goes into the race with a favourite’s chance. That would be the only discrepancy when it comes to the trends as favourites don’t have the greatest of records in this race. THE TOTHER ONE also comes out near the top but then he is also near the top of the weights so it may be worth taking a chance on OPERATION HOUDINI. The Irish had an abysmal record in this race until Notre Pere broke the spell last year but that aside he is off the right age group, a last time out winner and racing off the right sort of weight. Elsewhere, COE can’t be completely ignored and at around 16/1 could represent decent each-way value along with the Scottish raider Silver By Nature who also comes out better than most from a trends perspective.

LEXUS CHASE – Leopardstown, 28th December 2009

What we need here is an eight-year-old, rated 170+ that finished in the top two last time out and which currently sits in the top three in the betting. Amazingly no horse hits these main trends with the closest attempt coming from NOTRE PERE. This eight-year-old is rated 167 and is currently joint favourite but ran no sort of race last time out (5th in the Betfair Chase). If he’s back to form he has leading claims. JONCOL wouldn’t be far behind seeing as he’s rated 162 and as a six-year-old he represents an age group that has a record that needs respecting (2-1-4). He shares favouritism at the time of writing and comes into the race after winning the Grade 1 John Durkan Chase at Punchestown last time out. COOLDINE makes his seasonal reappearance here but his trainer Willie Mullins is normally one to avoid in the contest over recent times. He’s sent seven runners to post in the last ten years but only managed one placing. Couple this with the fact Cooldine will be having his first start since April and he may be one to sidestep. The British normally do very well in this race and in fact have won it for the last three years. MONEY TRIX looks the best chance of success this year.

SHORTLIST
JONCOL
NOTRE PERE
(MONEY TRIX)

CONCLUSION
JONCOL looks a horse going places and his solid trends performance puts him at the top of our shortlist. I have already mentioned that six-year-olds have growing reputation in the contest and the fact he was a last time out winner strengthens his case. He is prominent in the betting and a previous graded winner which makes him one to be seriously interested in.

NOTRE PERE’s last performance was too bad to be true and here he’ll get the testing conditions he thrives upon in his bid to bounce back to form. He’s the right age and just 3lbs shy of the benchmark rating. He ran in graded company last time out and is proven over the distance. His position in the market adds to his case and he cannot be left out.

The final place on the list goes to British raider MONEY TRIX. He’s won both his starts this term to make it three on the spin and has the look of a very progressive chaser (despite his advancing years he has very few miles on the clock). His recent victory means he hits the important ‘top 2 last time out’ trend while he too is proven over the distance and should love the ground. His 14/1 price should gives us a decent each-way run.