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Welcome to the first (and what will be far the longest) of my Cheltenham Festival Ante-Post Portfolio updates which will appear here at 1.00 p.m. every Monday and for each of the seven days immediately preceding the Festival covering what I believe to be the most relevant action from the previous week regards to Cheltenham. The Festival is a week later this year so you will receive one extra week’s copy to digest than in previous years. Over the next 11 weeks it is likely I will advise between 25-30 ante-post bets like in the last two years and, if we enjoy anything like the same results as the last two years, I will take that here and now. I must advise we be patient though as I would imagine at least half the bets will be advised in the final two weeks when we know the entries and weights for the handicaps plus to take advantage of bookmakers’ non-runner no-bet concessions. I do not want to advise ante-post bets just for the sake of it and only have one suggestion for this week and there will be weeks when there is no advised bet at all. As many of you know I have already put up two ante-post bets for Cheltenham as part of my NH Private Service which are listed at the bottom of this first copy plus Arbor Supreme (ew) for the Grand National at 33/1 and Big Buck’s at 4/1 for the Order Of Merit.

THIS WEEKEND’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Punjabi (ew) (Champion Hurdle) - Best prices: 12/1 Corals, Hills, Chandlers, Bet365; 11/1 Stan James; 10/1 Totesport, Boylesports, Betfred, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
We found Go Native at 14/1 for this race last season fairly late in the day so do not be surprised if I leave it late again this season before suggesting an ante-post interest. With connections of Dunguib all but ruling out a crack at the Champion Hurdle, the Festival banker for many will kick off proceedings in the first race but many other Festival bankers have been sunk in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle before so I don’t believe it is a one-horse race (just yet anyway). That said, I would be more interested in a betting without the favourite market should Dunguib become so short bookmakers have to resort to this. Sure he deserves short-priced favouritism at present as nothing else has really come out as yet but they will. Dunguib was a mighty impressive winner of last season’s Champion Bumper but so was Cousin Vinny 12 months earlier who was unplaced as favourite for the last year’s Supreme meaning that only Montelado has completed that particular double and as far as I am concerned Dunguib is just beating the same horses in Some Present and Sweeps Hill who then both disappointed badly over Christmas. I can not deny he has looked something special but I am not at all interested in taking a take a top price of 6/4 at present. The horse that most interests at this stage has yet to jump a flight in public and that is Dermot Weld’s Rite Of Passage who was sensational when winning the November Handicap on the Flat destroying the high-class hurdler Donna’s Palm. He was due to have his hurdling debut over Christmas in the same maiden hurdle won by Cousin Vinny and Tranquil Sea in the last two years but he was injured in transit. The subject of a monster gamble for last season’s Champion Bumper having been 14/1 a week before the race to end up as 5/2 favourite, clearly the Weld team thought they had something very special indeed but he was beaten 11 lengths into third by Dunguib. Maybe he didn’t get home? Maybe he would prefer a flatter track? Maybe he wasn’t right on top of his game? Maybe he is very good but just not good enough? All possible factors but I don’t think the fact he is just 0-1 against Dunguib means he couldn’t turn the tables on another day. The only thing stopping me from advising an each-way interest at 16/1 is that there is a chance connections could decide to head for the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle (formerly the Ballymore) over 2m5f instead for which he is similarly priced which would mean not taking on Dunguib. Loosen My Load runs in the colours of Sizing Europe and has many physical similarities to his stablemate and deserves to be trading at shorter than his top price of 25/1. He outspeeded the stayer Some Present to win a Grade 2 here at The Open Meeting (a race that has been a poor guide to Supreme Novices’ mind you) but I am sure he would have also preferred a stronger gallop himself so reckon he would confirm that form which puts him around ten lengths behind Dunguib so he has each-way claims on the basis that Supreme winners can often take this race by a wide margin. He is every inch a chaser though and how many of them win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle? Sticking with the Irish, which it is often wise to do for this race, the Grade 1 novice event at Leopardstown over Christmas which saw Hurricane Fly destroy Go Native last season did not look up to scratch this time around with Hollo Ladies beating Saludos. The fact both were double-figure prices confirmed the form of this race looked well short of Grade 1 standard. Menorah is the shortest priced home contender which doesn’t say a lot for our challenge. He won very well at Kempton beating Nicky Henderson’s Bellvano but the runner-up didn’t impress me on his hurdling debut at Newbury taking a long time to find his feet and he also ran very green at Kempton so I really don’t know what he beat and 10/1 certainly doesn’t interest me. Henderson has a superb set of novice hurdlers this season and I will be surprised if Bellvano ends up in the top three of those and prefer General Miller of his two-mile novices. He looked very professional when beating Ghizao on his only hurdling start which was over this course doing him for speed at the end of the race having won his two bumpers last season and he has three entries for this week so we should learn a little more about him providing the weather eases. Oscar Whiskey is a third Henderson novice to the fore in the market and was priced up as morning favourite for the Tolworth Hurdle at the weekend before it was abandoned. To me he is a chaser in the making so will lack the savvy and basic speed required to win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and his trainer admitted he is still a big baby so he is definitely not for me in a race such as this. I am not having Pepe Simo as good enough even though Arcalis won this race having been out of his depth in the Christmas Hurdle like Paul Nicholls’ novice and the former Derby fifth Washington Irving beat trees at Carlisle so still has to prove he has it mentally for me against tough horses after going awol on the Flat.

ARKLE TROPHY
There is usually a great angle in this race as horses rated 142+ over hurdles have won nine of the last ten running but only a handful or less tend to line up but, this year, virtually everything up to 20/1 in a wide-open market had achieved this figure so we look to have lost a big edge this season. I was firmly in the Sizing Europe camp before his fortunate Grade 1 win at Leopardstown on Boxing Day where he looked sure to be collected by Captain Cee Bee who had joined issue at the final fence but had a soft fall leaving Henry De Bromhead’s class act to come home at his leisure with Osana failing to live up to expectations. That has made me think twice and especially at a top offer of 13/2. You will hear arguments over the coming weeks that Sizing Europe is soft and will not fight up the Cheltenham hill but I don’t go along with that as he won a Greatwood Hurdle where he fought off Osana carrying 11st 10lbs on desperately heavy ground and this suggested softness has all come about given the way he went out like a light in the Champion Hurdle when favourite after travelling like the wrath of God and then folded easily in subsequent races but that can easily be put down to an injury which they finally got to the bottom of and he is over that now. That still doesn’t explain why he would probably have been beaten had Captain Cee Bee negotiated the final fence and I take the view that he just wasn’t on his A-game at Leopardstown over Christmas and nothing more than that. His jumping wasn’t as electric as in previous starts and perhaps a third run in a relatively short space of time meant he wasn’t as fresh as he needs to be to show his best. If he were mine, he would not run again before the Arkle Trophy and that looks like being the case. Captain Cee Bee has joined Sizing Europe at the top of the market and many can not understand why he is not outright favourite given he would most likely have beaten Sizing Europe had he jumped the final fence on what was only his second start over fences, so there is plenty more to come you would have thought. Argument will rage over whether he is too old at the age of nine given only a true great in Moscow Flyer has won the Arkle for horses aged over seven since 1990 and he was a year younger than Captain Cee Bee (Danish Flight won as a nine-year-old in 1988) but that would not concern me all that much as he is very lightly-raced having run just 13 times over the last five seasons plus he is a horse that has already defied the age trends once when winning the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle as a seven-year-old. A much bigger worry for me is whether he will be quick enough on usual opening day Festival ground. That may sound bizarre given he won a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but race times and my eyes told me it was genuine soft ground that day and not the given good-to-soft and he had to be ridden at the top of the hill that day before coming back on the bridle. I don’t think you can win an Arkle like that especially on genuine good-to-soft ground which is what they will strive for as you need to be somewhere near the pace from half-way. It would be wrong to say he doesn’t handle better than soft ground but, at this level, you want everything in your favour and I could see him leaving him too much to do. That Supreme Novices’ Hurdle victory should not be underestimated either as he was giving 8lbs to an in-form Binocular and the fourth horse was a desperately unlucky loser of last season’s Arkle. Five of the last nine Arkle winners were the top-rated hurdler in the race which this year is Osana but I have been disappointed with him over fences. I don’t blame the switch to Edward O’Grady for that but I just feel he is always going to be vulnerable at top level and his trainer who won the Arkle with Ventana Canyon in 1996 now plans to drop him in rather than leading. Although Osana is currently the top-rated hurdler in the Arkle, Sizing Europe had posted a higher figure before his injury but so I would rate him Europe the best hurdler in the line up for that particular stat. Sticking with the Irish, I note Mikael D’Haguenet has now come into the Arkle betting as well as the Champion Hurdle market and RSA Chase. As every day passes without seeing him having a run following an early-season setback increases, the chances he may stay hurdling (though he has run over fences in France) must increase and he also has the RSA Chase as an option so I can not possibly entertain advising him in any race from an ante-post perspective until we know where he is being aimed. Willie Mullins also has the very exciting Sports Line who he nominated as his Arkle horse at the start of the season and he looked smart when making a successful chasing debut but was pulled out of his Christmas engagement. According to connections, he only has two ways of running – flat and out and stop so whether that is what we want in an Arkle horse I have my doubts given only winner has made most since 1980. Onto the Brits who have three professional-looking horses in Somersby, Tataniano and Riverside Theatre who are all excellent jumpers on course for the race plus Nicky Henderson has stated he will also enter his impressive Feltham winner Long Run as he showed so much speed at Kempton though I suspect it will be owner that decides where he runs given he has already decided his jockey will ride even though he won’t be able to claim his allowance. If Long Run does end up here (personally I can not see it as this race looks twice as hot as the RSA Chase and he certainly has plenty of stamina), judged on his Kempton run, he will belt too many fences at two-mile pace to get away with it in this race where one mistake is usually enough to cook your goose. Somersby is in the right hands to get a horse ready for a Grade 1 chase and won more comfortably than the margin suggested in the Henry VIII Chase that has been a good guide to the Arkle in recent seasons where his jumping won him the race. I would say though that that form has not worked out so far. Third in last season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which is working out very well, that was a terrific effort for clearly a chaser in the making and I rate him the best of the home team. I am not a Tataniano fan especially. Maybe I am pigeon-holing him as not having enough class as he was essentially disappointing as a novice hurdler as it transpired they were running him over the wrong trip. Clearly jumping is his strong suit but that can only get you so far and he has had nothing to beat in two starts so far over fences with his only serious market rival falling at Cheltenham. On hurdles and chase form he should be a double-figure price but is artificially short as Nicholls stated at the start of the season he was his best hope for the race or words to that effect. Riverside Theatre is Mr Professional but again I just wonder if he has the class to beat proven Grade 1 hurdlers. His jumping has been superb but I do question whether he will better served by flat tracks as his six wins have seen three at Kempton where he is unbeaten, two at Newbury and another at Ascot. Take The Breeze impressed at Newbury when galloping his way through the heavy ground but surely he will need a similar surface to that to have a chance here and Nicholls goes in search of some more filthy ground in Ireland for his next start in the Irish Arkle. I also do not think we should forget about Nicky Richards’ Noble Alan who won last season’s Scottish Champion Hurdle and is lightly-raced. He made an impressive chasing debut but then fell early on at Aintree and was far from disgraced failing to give 13lbs to a useful sort in I’m Delilah last time. He would want decent ground but is classy enough to be competitive in an Arkle and has the scope to develop into a high-class chaser. There are worse 50/1 shots. Another novice that appears to have gone under the radar that did impress me over Christmas was Dancing Tornado who showed a sharp turn of foot after travelling strongly to win a Grade 2 event over 2m4f at Limerick beating the classy River Liane but he is not quoted anywhere. He probably wouldn’t have the class to go all the way but I can see him winning something very useful this season maybe a top handicap.

CHAMPION HURDLE
I have a bet today and it is PUNJABI (ew) at 12/1 before he runs in the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Ffos Las at the weekend if it beats the weather and course officials are talking a good game that it will. If he wins that race like I think he will as I can not see what will beat him now he has blown the cobwebs away in the Boylesports Hurdle, he is sure to be a single-figure price for the Cheltenham and I genuinely believe he should be disputing favouritism with Solwhit and Go Native. Last year I put up Punjabi without Binocular at 10/1 for this race in this service as I felt he was the forgotten horse of the race and, despite then winning the Champion Hurdle, I also believe he is the forgotten horse of this season’s Champion Hurdle as well and remains seriously under-rated. How the reigning Champion Hurdler who has done nothing wrong since that success can have as many as six horses ahead of him in the betting in places is beyond me (would have been seven had Hurricane Fly met with what looks like a season-ending setback) and hopefully you know me well enough to realise that I am not one for sentimentality in betting so the fact we made a really good profit out of him in this race last season has nothing to do with me advising him again. In short Punjabi has the best form and is not declining and the race has a history of multiple winners. To be honest, I can’t really split Punjabi and Solwhit who has class, stamina and pace and was ridden much more sensibly at Leopardstown off a slow pace nearer to the pace than in the Fighting Fifth Hurdle but the Champion Hurdler is twice his price which is ludicrous when barely nothing separated them at the Punchestown Festival where I felt Punjabi ran a screamer considering the Champion Hurdle he won was the most brutal I can remember and Celestial Halo couldn’t recover for his next start at Aintree so he did incredibly well to go so close. As far as his Boylesports Hurdle run is concerned, I felt he travelled like the best horse in the race until blowing up as predicted by his trainer and he was then looked after. Champion Hurdlers have an atrocious record in that race not aided by their Grade 1 penalty and I confidently predict he will finish ahead of Khyber Kim in the Champion Hurdle on better ground and when his fitness is not in question and on 4lbs better terms. I really can’t have Khyber Kim as I reckon this is a mudlark and although it will be on the soft side on Champion Hurdle day it is unlikely to be testing enough for him to go all the way and it should be a quicker surface than when he won the Greatwood in very testing ground and the Boylesports Hurdle on genuine soft ground. Celestial Halo finished second on that occasion and was essentially disappointing as everything was right for him that day. It seems harsh to argue that a horse just beaten in last season’s Champion Hurdle is not good enough but I think it is true and he is vulnerable at two miles against the very best. How Binocular can be ahead of Punjabi in the betting is another bone of contention as he has looked anything but a Champion Hurdler in his two runs this season where worryingly for his supporters, McCoy has said he just hasn’t given him the same feel as last season. I don’t think he has a problem with the hill as he was in front two strides after the line in last season’s epic Champion Hurdle but I do feel that hard race may have taken toll on the horse. In my opinion he would have won last season’s Champion Hurdle had the race been run a week later as he was just short of peak fitness with the weather problems and not having run for three months but, as a I say, I think last season’s race has taken the edge off him in a big way. Beaten convincingly by Go Native on both starts this season, Noel Meade’s strong traveller has to come into this. Statswise he has been winning the wrong races as no reigning Supreme Novices’ Hurdle has followed up 12 months later since Bula (though two have won in later years) and it has been 19 years since the Christmas Hurdle winner of the same season won the Champion Hurdle. That said, he did win the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as did Punjabi last season. Effective off a slow and fast pace, I felt he was value for more than the winning margin in last season’s ‘Supreme’ as he kicked on rounding the home turn and then just held on. He also just held on in the Christmas Hurdle after unleashing a smart turn of foot on the run-in but idled again so Paul Carberry may have to do another Harchibald on him and wait until half-way up the run-in if he is to last out the race. The question is will he have the balls to give him a similar ride to the one he was slated for in certain places (incorrectly slated in my opinion)? Given he is a bit of headcase, I don’t think that would bother him at all – it may all depend on what time he rolls in the night before!!! My worry about supporting Go Native ante-post is the ground because if it does come up genuine soft, he would be serious place-lay material as he is better on decent ground and was slammed by Voler La Vedette on such a surface this season and I doubt he would get home on such a surface at Champion Hurdle pace. Onto Zaynar and I can only think he is favourite on the basis that the other contenders’ form lines tie in with each other fairly closely so there is a chance he could be notch above them. There is also a chance he could be a notch below them. How can he be as low as 5/1 when the highest-rated horse he has beaten is rated 153? What price would you put Walkon on in here who may have beaten him with better luck in running in the Triumph Hurdle? 6/1? It’s a joke price. Yes Zaynar looked very good over 2m3f at Ascot but beat a three-miler in Karabak coming from an out-of-form yard but he was anything but impressive to these eyes running lazily before winning at long odds-on at Cheltenham next time over a similar kind of trip. I accept he is probably best fresh and didn’t look so hot second time out last season asw well before winning the Triumph Hurdle having been freshened up but I just don’t think he has the pace to warrant being a single-figure price for the Champion Hurdle let alone be favourite. It is not beyond stupidity that Voler La Vedette could run here rather than head for the Mares Hurdle as she didn’t look as good over 2m4f last time as she had over 2m when beating an undercooked Go Native but it is too big a risk to support her ante-post. Starluck couldn’t win his own Champion Hurdle at Kempton so I can’t have him at Cheltenham. He didn’t get home after travelling best in the Triumph Hurdle and was caught late on at Haydock so he is a short runner for me and it was a case of Go Native coming back to him at Kempton than anything else. In summary, Punjabi has to go close again so I have backed him at the top price of 12/1 to each-way stakes.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Formerly the Ballymore Properties Novices’ Hurdle, this market has yet to take off and Willie Mullins’ Champion Bumper fourth of last season Quel Esprit heads the market especially after being well supported in the last week. That Cheltenham Bumper run was his only defeat in six starts in bumpers and over hurdles but the problem is that he is such a strong looking stayer and won over three miles last time out that he could easily end up in the Albert Bartlett over that same trip so we can not entertain him as an ante-post proposition until we know where he heads. In fact, until a trainer categorically states this race is the aim it is going to be hard to put up an ante-post bet here as being a mid-distance race, contenders also have the option of the 2m or 3m novice races. Quantativeeasing is currently second favourite after two easy wins having won a bumper at the Punchestown Festival on his debut last season when very well backed. Again the problem here is that he clearly stays very well and is a brother to Asian Maze who won Grade 1 races at three miles so he could easily end up in the Albert Bartlett. Rite Of Passage is next in and I have covered him in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle copy and then comes Tell Massini who also looks more likely to go for the Albert Bartlett but I have heard they rate him so highly they may decide to miss the Festival altogether and spare him a very hard race so be careful there. Reve De Sivola won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle over this trip but as all 12 winners of that race to line up here have been beaten you may want to think twice about supporting him. Besides, only a length covered the first four home in testing ground where you usually see wide margin wins so that form doesn’t look anything out of the ordinary. Finian’s Rainbow travelled like much the best horse in the race but fluffed the last flight and then appeared to not get home on the ground which suggests this would be the Festival race for him on the better surface at Cheltenham and I would make him the most interesting contender at present even though his trainer has a wretched record in the race.

RSA CHASE
We have found the last two winners of this race in the ante-post market at 25/1 and 14/1 so fingers crossed we can do it again as I am virtually certain to be adding another bet to the portfolio in this race at some point. I say ‘another’ as I took a real flyer advising Pettifour (ew) at 50/1 before he had even jumped a fence back in early November. I wouldn’t say I have totally given up hope he can squeak a place but he is similarly priced now and I wouldn’t be advising him as things stand even though I believe he is still slightly overpriced. I appeared on NH Season Preview a few days before the Paddy Power Gold Cup Meeting with Paddy Brennan also on the panel and was guilty with being carried away with infectious enthusiasm for how well the horse had schooled at home. I figured if he was a fringe 160 horse over hurdles and jumped fences superbly then 50/1 was simply way too big so took an each-way risk and it hasn’t really paid off as although he won a three-runner race at Cheltenham on his chase debut, his jumping wasn’t that fluent and then he fell when Michel Le Bon had his measure at Newbury. Like I say, I haven’t given up on the bet especially as there is not a glut of high-class staying novices around right now. Nicky Henderson’s pair of Punchestowns and Long Run head the market and I would definitely be in the Punchestowns camp of the pair as he was by far the superior hurdler of the pair (though Long Run was pretty good himself at that discipline), has proven he can handle the track and I just think he is an all-round more professional horse at this stage of their careers. Do not forget Long Run is only a five-year-old and their age allowance has been slashed from 10lbs to just a measly 2lbs since Star De Mohaison won for them or that his jockey will not be able to claim his allowance in a Grade 1 race plus he hit at least four fences that I saw at Kempton and that all 16 Feltham winners to run in the RSA Chase have been beaten and, to top it off, he may not even run anyway as Henderson has suggested the Arkle is not out of the equation. You tell me which is the better 5/1 shot! The question is however, do I want to take 5/1 about a horse for any Festival novice chase at this stage of the season? Even though I rate Punchestowns as the most likely winner, that price here and now is not for me though given the third and fourth favourites, Mikael D’Haguenet and Diamond Harry, may not even run as their trainers will enter them for another race or two at the Festival, I concede that 5/1 could indeed look a big price come the day. Mikael D’Haguenet and Punchestowns started the season as joint favourites but whilst one has shown his wellbeing with an easy win in a Grade 2 event that Denman and Lord Noelie also won before winning the RSA Chase, the other is still recovering from a setback and, the longer it takes for him to see a racecourse, the less chance he will take his chance in this race even though he has chasing experience in France. In terms of raw ability, Mikael D’Haguenet could be anything but official figures say right now he is over a stone inferior to Punchestowns over hurdles so maybe he deserved to be twice the price of the World Hurdle runner-up when the season began even despite the fact Willie Mullins has trained three winners and two seconds in this race from few runners. Anyway, we can’t consider him until we know his aim. Outside of Mullins the Irish have struggled in a big way in this race which brings me on to the Leopardstown 1-2 Pandorama and Weapon’s Amnesty. A short-head separated them over Christmas in what I felt was a strong running of that Grade 1 race for a change but I have a strong opinion that Weapon’s Amnesty will reverse the form come the RSA Chase as he strikes me as a horse that will continue to improve with each chase start after a sketchy start to his chasing career and will also appreciate the likely Festival ground more so than Pandorama who is a heavy-topped horse that wants it soft. Weapon’s Amnesty also already has a Festival success to his credit winning last season’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle with something to spare despite the tightish margin of victory given the way he was looking around on the run-in so we know he acts on the track, Festival ground and stays very well. Pandorama dug deep to beat him at Leopardstown but whether he can reproduce that form on likely better ground I am really not sure plus he has the Drinmore Chase hoodoo winner to overcome as no winner of that Grade 1 race has ever won the RSA Chase. Furthermore, Meade says he will now be put away for the Festival but I can never recall a RSA winner that did not have a run in the same calendar year (the Tom Bill-trained Reg Crank-ridden Cross Master won in 1986 having last raced on January 2^nd) and What A Friend was a dismal failure attempting this feat in last season’s race. As for Diamond Harry, my guess is that he will stay hurdling as there is not enough time to give him the experience required to win an RSA Chase (the last ten winners had at least three runs over fences) so best give him a full season at that discipline. We’ll see but I couldn’t have him even if he breezed home in two chase starts and he still looks far from the finished article to me and this can be a brutal race. Of the others priced up to 25/1, I can’t have Weird Al or Knockara Beau that fought out the finish to the staying novice chase at the Open meeting being classy enough, Mighty Man is ancient and better on flat tracks, Seven Is My Number is better in smaller fields and a high-class handicapper at best, Venalmar has got to show something since returning from injury and Inchidaly Rock looks like being aimed at the four-miler. Bensalem is half-interesting at 25/1 as Alan King holds him in the highest regard. His form when beaten by Take The Breeze has since been franked and by all accounts he didn’t jump that well as the sea fret affected his jumping (that’s a new one on me) as he wouldn’t take a cut at his fences so there are grounds for believing he could improve on that effort without a sea fret! He has the class to have an impact but a comment by King before he withdrew him from the Dipper Chase worried me as he commented he is a heavy-topped horse so wants soft ground and we all know he is far from certain to get that at the Festival. I may be wrong but I got the feeling King was delighted he had a minor setback on the eve of last season’s Festival as I felt deep down that he didn’t really want to risk gutting his best chasing prospect in the Albert Bartlett and I don’t think it would really worry him either if he missed the RSA Chase for the same reason either. A darkish one is Gordon Elliott’s Jessie’s Dream. A winning pointer, this seven-year-old by Presenting may have beaten Zaarito on his chase debut under Rules at Leopardstown over Christmas but for falling and had beaten the high-class hurdler Noble Prince on his final run over fences.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
The second of my two bets I have advised so far looks a whole lot rosier than the first as I suggested we take Stan James’ generous offer of Petit Robin (ew) without Master Minded at 25/1. Since I advised the bet, which I know was hard for those without an SJ account to get on as they don’t have many shops, Petit Robin has reversed placings with the Champion Chase third to whom he was one place behind in last season’s Queen Mother, and I will be very surprised if he does not confirm those Kempton positions in the Champion Chase even off slightly worse terms as he has only just turned seven and still going forward. My worry is whether Henderson will run him in the Ryanair instead or rest him for the Melling Chase but on the evidence of that Grade 2 win over two miles he is the third or fourth best two-miler around behind Master Minded and Twist Magic (I would argue he or Big Zeb is next best) so surely he has to go for the Champion Chase with Master Minded looking a little vulnerable considering Petit Robin was to all intents and purposes still a novice when finishing third in last season’s race. Moreover, he was ridden to win the Champion Chase under an attacking ride unlike Well Chief on his first run following two years off who was ridden to pick up the pieces so he shaped like the second-best horse in the race after Big Zeb existed. Onto Master Minded and you could have got as big as 11/4 not long after it was announced he would be off for at least ten weeks with his rib injury and the 7/4 now will still look very big come the day as I am sure he will start Evens or shorter giving you trading options. Paul Nicholls has conceded this week that the Game Spirit Chase is now going to come soon so the two-time defending Champion will bid for a third straight win at the Festival without the benefit of a prep run but his layoff would not concern me given how good he looked when winning last season’s Tingle Creek on his seasonal debut and neither would his rib as they wouldn’t risk him if they felt it hadn’t fully healed. What would worry me however if I was thinking about taking short odds without wanting to trade it off is his ‘tying up’ (not the tying up as we know it in a race when getting tired) which connections have not exactly been desperate to talk about and Master Minded suffered with this ailment which basically means a cramping of the muscles which go into spasms and if this occurs when a race is on the near agenda there is no opportunity to use drugs going into a race. ‘Tying up’ can take the edge off a horse as it means they can not be galloped properly at home and this is what stopped him looking so imperious in the second half of last season and especially in between Cheltenham and Punchestown when he scraped home to beat Big Zeb and would have beaten had the runner-up not made a bad mistake at the final fence. There were also rumours that Master Minded also bled at Punchestown but I must stress they are only rumours. If this ‘tying up’ problem persists, Master Minded is vulnerable. I can not have Well Chief on my mind as his time has gone. First time out was probably the time to catch him and Master Minded still came out as the best horse at the weights in the Connaugt Chase even with a fractured rib! Big Zeb still has jumping problems when racing at pace for me and Ruby Walsh and Twist Magic exploited that in brilliant style in the Tingle Creek by trying to get him out of his comfort zone which worked a treat. Okay, Big Zeb didn’t make any serious clangers but he was never happy and I am 100% certain that he will appreciate Cheltenham much more than Sandown so I would be happy to write that run off totally. Colm Murphy argued that run came too soon after he barely had to move out of second gear to win on his seasonal debut which surely is absolute tosh and it is disappointing he can not admit his horse just couldn’t handle that set of circumstances at Sandown. Of the four horses that are a top-priced 10/1, he would be the one to interest me most (Petit Robin is still overpriced at 14/1 for me). Twist Magic is a different horse at Sandown to anywhere else so there has to be a question whether he can reproduce that form at Cheltenham. The argument he can is that Nicholls says he has finally worked out how to train him and never had him right for the last two Champion Chases where he ran shockers and he proved he could handle the track in the Arkle when still bang there with every chance when falling two out. I do think Walsh is important t him however and he will not have him on board come the big day if Master Minded turns up. Last season’s Arkle Trophy, in my opinion, was a below-par running so I don’t see last season’s 1-2 Forpadydeplasterer or Kalahari King winning. There is a case to back the first-named place-only given that the last ten reigning Arkle winners to run in the Champion Chase finished no worse than third but he got lucky last spring as Kalahari King would have run with better luck in running and then looked even better at Aintree. Beaten in all three starts since, Forpadydeplasterer is probably better on left-handed tracks (those defeats were on right-handed tracks and the last two on ground softer than he would like) so is better than we have seen this season but he still has some way to progress for me as does Kalahari King. Officially last season’s top-rated two mile novice chaser (if you don’t count Petit Robin that is who was only having his sixth chase start) was Willie Mullins’ Barker who beat Forpadydeplasterer at the Punchestown Festival. He is the dark horse of the race as rarely receives a mention when the race is discussed and has only run once since when unseating Ruby Walsh in the John Durkan and is being brought along steadily with the Champion Chase in mind. His stablemate Golden Silver won the Grade 1 at Leopardstown at Christmas but he is a soft-ground horse and was basically beating a 2m4f horse in Tranquil Sea so I can not see him being quick enough on Festival ground like in the Arkle last season when he was exposed as not having the speed. I really can not see anything else being good enough to challenge.

RYANAIR CHASE
This can be a trappy as horses often switch late in the day between this race, the Champion Chase and Gold Cup but it looks a good bet that the Paddy Power Gold Cup 1-2 Tranquil Sea and Poquelin will head here (certainly the winner) and that has been the key guide so far with four of the five Ryanair winners running a big race in that Grade 3 handicap back in November whilst the other winner had won a Paddy Power Gold Cup in a previous season. Of the pair I would prefer Poquelin on better ground as I really don’t think he was put in the Paddy Power Gold Cup at all, in fact it was as if they had accepted the heavy ground had gone against them so they would give him an easy time of it whereas Tranquil Sea loved the ground and could be called the winner a mile from home so easily was he travelling and landed a big gamble. Come the Boylesports Gold Cup however, Walsh had Poquelin far closer to the pace on more suitable though not ideal ground like he did when he also won at the Cheltenham October Meeting and like he will in the Ryanair Chase. Nicholls has said that Poquelin is the most improved horse in the yard this season and he meets all the trends criteria for the race so is a worthy favourite and I would readily prefer him to the soft-ground loving Tranquil Sea. The main danger for me is Barbers Shop who they tried and failed to turn him into a Gold Cup horse and he proved he didn’t stay 3m2f again in the Hennessy. Three miles is not a problem but I reckon a fast-run 2m5f at Cheltenham is his optimum conditions and has twice ran crackers in those circumstances when second in the Jewson and last season’s Paddy Power Gold Cup when running Imperial Commander to under two lengths. Given that winner then went on to win last season’s Ryanair Chase, Barbers Shop has to be right there with a huge shout. Imperial Commander is quoted as second-favourite in some lists but I will be very surprised indeed if he doesn’t have a crack at the Gold Cup given how close he came to beating Kauto Star at Haydock. Last season’s runner-up Voy Por Ustedes is beatable for sure and turned over when odds-on for last season’s Ryanair and especially now his former strong suit of his jumping has let him down in two of his last three races. I don’t doubt for a second he is a far better horse in the spring and raises his game for Cheltenham but the signs are there he is starting to wane. Best of the Irish could be Joncol who simply didn’t stay 3m in the Lexus Chase in testing ground. Maybe he went on too soon but he looked very good over 2m4f in the John Durkan and this looks his trip for this season at least. Would I want such a big horse on an undulating track though? I am not sure and a safer each-way interest would be on his country-mate Schindler’s Hunt who was a close-up third last season and may have won the Melling Chase with a better jump at the final fence. What he wants is 2m4f and decent ground so you can forget any of his runs over 3m or on testing ground and 20/1 looks just a little on the big side. Planet Of Sound won the Haldon Gold Cup and then a bad mistake cost him a Grade 2 event at Ascot when he split Albertas Run and Voy Por Ustedes. Third in last season’s Arkle, so the track should not be a problem, but I just feel he is not quite a Grade 1 horse and prefer three or four others. Tidal Bay has proven once and for all he is not in love with this game and how over-loyal northern judges can say otherwise is beyond me, Chapoturgeon found next to nothing after travelling well at the weekend over course and distance and just doesn’t look good enough (his Jewson win was off just 135), Alberta’s Run runs one good race for every three bad and was receiving weight all round when winning at Ascot and Tartak just makes too many errors.

WORLD HURDLE
Surely this is all over and therefore the only sensible option for ante-post purposes lies in a market without the favourite? Unbeaten in six starts since turning his attentions to hurdling, I can see Big Buck’s usurping Inglis Drever’s achievements and winning four World Hurdles and we just don’t know what figure he can run to as he is only produced at the final flight and then wins with his ears pricked and, being only seven years of age, Nicholls reports him a stronger horse and there is more to come. When he won the Cleeve Hurdle last season Big Buck’s was receiving weight but this year he will have to give weight which no doubt was part of the reason they have decided to bypass the race and go to the World Hurdle a fresh horse (not ideal for my start-of-season Order Of Merit bet but at least they said Aintree was on the agenda which wasn’t previously a given). So what will finish second? Disappointingly, only Stan James are betting with the favourite and I really do not like the fact that their book is purely win-only as I quite liked the 20/1 about Powerstation if I could have got on to each-way stakes without Big Buck’s given he was third last year and the second has gone chasing plus he always runs the track well (second in the Coral Cup and Albert Bartlett at other Festivals) and won a Grade 1 in Ireland last time out but I do think something else in addition to Big Buck’s will beat him so have to reluctantly let that go. I think Karabak will finish ahead of Powerstation but can resist 5/2 in that market as I can Diamond Harry at not much bigger who has twice shown he is not as talented as Alan King’s horse. Lie Forrit would be an each-way bet in the outright market if this were run over four miles but he has class issues to answer for me. Sentry Duty entered the picture having won the 2m5f hurdle event at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day but he did Katchit for speed and I can’t see him being suited by a three-mile slog in a better field and would be confident that Katchit would reverse places with him over a longer trip as he just keeps battling away and despite a below-par season last campaign he wasn’t beaten all that far in the Champion Hurdle. I can easily see both of Alan King’s horses filling the places with Powerstation also in the mix. The problem at present with suggesting such a bet is that I don’t think it is totally out of the question that Willie Mullins could run Mikael D’Haguenet the longer he doesn’t come out and run over fences and he would be the obvious second favourite if that eventuality does arise having beaten Karabak and Diamond Harry in such style in last season’s Ballymore.

GOLD CUP
Like with the World Hurdle, I have no intentions of getting involved in the outright market as Kauto Star and Denman are both not going to run a stone below their best so will look towards a bet without the big two and we have made a profit for the last two years in the Gold Cup in similar markets. So far only Stan James and William Hill have such a market open that I can see. If I had to choose one way, I would go with Kauto Star on pure class grounds but with no great conviction as I reckon there is more to come from Denman than he showed in the Hennessy who I am sure would have kept pulling out more if asked. My belief has been that Kauto Star has had the Gold Cup run to suit the two years he won it as they went married man’s gallops on those occasions and this is a Tingle Creek winner but he failed in the year when the race was not set up for his speed to blitz them away but, that said, the extra-strong gallop at Kempton on Boxing Day meant he could post a figure of 195 which was 9lbs higher than his second Gold Cup victory which he won in a canter so maybe he did just indeed have an off-day two years ago and it wasn’t Denman breaking his heart on that occasion. What brings me more round to this way of thinking is that Kauto Star wasn’t jumping at his best on the first circuit before Denman took over at half-way in his bid to run the finish out of him. In what looks like a two-horse race, there are serious grounds for believing 6-4 is big value as he is sure to start odds-on on the day. I feel it is right that Imperial Commander should head the betting without the big two as Twiston-Davies has said he is being aimed at the race, he loves the track and gave Kauto Star the fright of his life at Haydock whereas What A Friend, Joncol and Barbers Shop that are all to the fore in the market could bypass the race. For me, Joncol wouldn’t stay if he ran, we know Barbers Shop doesn’t stay but What A Friend would be interesting if he ran as I could see them riding him for third off a quiet waiting ride whilst Imperial Commander tries to serve it up to the big two but Paul Nicholls has intimated they may wait until Aintree and Punchestown for him given he can not beat Denman on the book who gave him lumps of weight and a beating in the Hennessy. Money Trix and Notre Pere need it like The Somme so need some serious help and may not run without their ground but Madison Du Berlais will surely run but we know he is flat-track horse and he ran most disappointingly in last season’s Gold Cup. Carruthers bolted up in the Mandarin Chase and could go to the Gold Cup but he has plenty to find with Cooldine on last seasons’ RSA Chase form even if he is ridden with more restraint than at the Festival. Cooldine is interesting as he stays very well, bolted up in the RSA Chase by 14 lengths and two fairly recent winners of that race won the next season’s Gold Cup and is being trained by the race by a master at getting horses ready for the spring. My concern is whether the RSA Chase has left its mark as it was a brutal running last season and he has run two poor races in as many starts since then. The first can be forgiven as Punchestown form a few weeks later should always be taken with a pinch of salt coming at the end of a season and just a month after that very hard race he endured at Cheltenham and he scoped badly after his seasonal debut in the Lexus Chase so in theory that run can also be forgiven but you do start to question it when a horse runs two bad races after a very hard race.

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase)
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase)

* Indicates market limited to not all bookmakers