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National Hunt Season Betting Guide – 23rd Jan 10

Fri, Jan 22, 2010

Xtrends

It’s been a while since we’ve been here and when we finally do we get a four runner event which isn’t ideal. In truth I was going to swop this race from the guide and instead focus on the Peter Marsh Chase on the same card. Let me know what you think at nhubbard@weatherbys.co.uk

Sportingbet.com CHAMPION HURDLE TRIAL – Haydock, January 23rd 2010
As we have just the four runners I’ll run through each of them individually…

Punjabi
Last year’s Champion Hurdle winner will be hoping to build upon his 4th place finish on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham behind Khyber Kim. As a seven-year-old he perhaps isn’t the ideal age for this (five and six-year-olds tend to dominate) but he does carry a penalty, which is a bonus, and he is rated 160+ (he is actually a 164 rated hurdler) so he does have plenty going for him. He ran in graded company last time out which is another positive, as too is his trainer.

Cape Tribulation
The positives are that he’s the right age, ran in graded company last time out, is carrying a penalty and is proven beyond 2m. Although his rating wouldn’t meet the criteria seeing as it’s 155 he doesn’t miss out by much and could be capable of a surprise for a trainer that knows how to win this.

Medermit
Connections put chasing on hold for another season to give him a crack at the Champion Hurdle but he’s found Khyber Kim too good on both his starts so far this year. As a six-year-old his age is fine, as too is his outing in graded company last time out. He’s a winner over further than 2m but his rating of 158 falls a couple of pounds shy.

Afsoun
Nicky Henderson’s other runner doesn’t look he force of old and he’s the only one of the field set to race for his starting weight. However his 158 rating is still the joint-second best in the line-up and he actually won the race in 2007.

CONCLUSION
Seven of the last ten winners finished in the first two last time out yet all four runners failed to do just that and once again we have a mixed bag of results. PUNJABI is clear on ratings but fails the age trend while MEDERMIT and CAPE TRIBULATION are the right age but miss out slightly on ratings. A head scratcher with the tentative nod going to CAPE TRIBULATION who was only beaten just over six lengths behind Go Native over Christmas and the soft ground will be ideal for him.

 

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