bettrends.co.uk

Two races for us to enjoy this week and at least one has a decent sized field.

BETFAIR TROPHY CHASE HANDICAP – Cheltenham, January 30th 2010

The most damming tends here focus on age, latest start, weight and stamina. What we need is an eight or nine-year-old who finished in the first four last time out, set to carry less than 10st 9lbs and with proven form over 2m 4f+. No one horse hits all four of these trends this year but we have quite a few who hit three, in fact over half the field hit three of them! With Paul Nicholls not having the best of records in the race that adds another interesting dimension into proceedings.

SHORTLIST

OSCAR BAY
FIT TO DRIVE

CONCLUSION

OSCAR BAY is the first point of call. Jimmy Frost’s runner was last seen finishing well beaten in a slog round Chepstow but this eight-year-old has winning form over further than this distance and thus he makes plenty of appeal. His record of just one fall from eleven starts over fences is another plus point and with just two starts (or three if you include summer jumping) this season he’s had a nice light start to his campaign. That hard race at Chepstow will have taken something out of him but he’s been given plenty of time to get over those exertions (the race was back on December 5th).

FIT TO DRIVE is very interesting from the foot of the handicap despite falling on her last start. This progressive chaser was still travelling well when coming to grief last time out and as long as that hasn’t dented her confidence then she looks a leading contender. As an eight-year-old with the right weight and winning form over the distance she ticks plenty of boxes.

EXMOOR RANGER is next best on the trends but his first preference is the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster so can’t be suggested so NYCTEOS is probably just about the next best despite his trainer having a 0-2-10 record in the race.

ARGENTO CHASE – Cheltenham, January 30th 2010

Seven runners and on the face of it a tricky little race to try and solve. Denman was entered for this and his presence would have made for an easier update but as it is we’re left with an open looking affair which could well see last year’s winner, JOE LIVELY, going close once again.

SHORTLIST

JOE LIVELY
KNOWHERE

CONCLUSION

A dead heat on the trends with 2009 winner JOE LIVELY and 2008 winner KNOWHERE sharing top billing. They hit identical trends, being aged 10+, set to carry a penalty, have a previous course winner under their belts and are previous graded winners. If I was to side with just one though it would be JOE LIVELY as you’d have to say the Twiston-Davies yard aren’t exactly in sparkling form right now.

Of the remainder INCHIDALY ROCK makes the most appeal and it would come as no surprise to see him put up a very bold performance.