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Saturday Service – January 30th & 31st

Trials day at Cheltenham takes centre stage this weekend but there is also some high quality action at Doncaster with the hugely competitive Sky Bet Chase the main betting heat.

Saturday

Cheltenham 12.55
PISTOLET NOIR has his first run for Paul Nicholls here and although he must concede weight all round he can cemented his position at the forefront of the Triumph Market. On the face of it this seems a fairly straightforward opportunity and it would be disappointing if he didn’t win. Former trainer Nick Williams saddles George Nympton and he looks the obvious one for the forecast.

PISTOLET NOIR

Cheltenham 1.30
Typically competitive stuff. Ernst Blofeld is a horse I like and there was plenty to like about this winning performance at Uttoxeter last time out. This is tough though and he is reluctantly passed over in favour of HEY BIG SPENDER. He’s been unfortunate enough to run into Inchidaly Rock twice already this year but his attitude was pleasing despite being beaten on both occasions. Sandwiched in between was a fine win at Newbury in a similar event to this and the runner-up that day has gone on to frank the form so his credentials look good. Progressive French chaser Doctor Pat is 8lb higher than when scoring at Newbury last month but there is every chance he can overcome that rise and could be worth a small saver.

HEY BIG SPENDER
DOCTOR PAT

Doncaster 1.45
Nicky Henderson saddles two here but the fact Barry Geraghty is on MAD MAX should indicate which of the two is preferred. His price is unlikely to be too generous though so he’s perhaps one to avoid rather than get heavily involved with. Quwetwo makes his chase debut and it’ll be interesting to see how he fares seeing as he’s pitched straight into a Grade 2 race.

Cheltenham 2.05
The most damming tends here focus on age, latest start, weight and stamina. What we need is an eight or nine-year-old who finished in the first four last time out, set to carry less than 10st 9lbs and with proven form over 2m 4f+. No one horse hits all four of these trends this year but we have quite a few who hit three, in fact over half the field hit three of them!

OSCAR BAY is the first point of call. Jimmy Frost’s runner was last seen finishing well beaten in a slog round Chepstow but this eight-year-old has winning form over further than this distance and thus he makes plenty of appeal. His record of just one fall from eleven starts over fences is another plus point and with just two starts (or three if you include summer jumping) this season he’s had a nice light start to his campaign. That hard race at Chepstow will have taken something out of him but he’s been given plenty of time to get over those exertions (the race was back on December 5th). FIT TO DRIVE is very interesting from the foot of the handicap despite falling on her last start. This progressive chaser was still travelling well when coming to grief last time out and as long as that hasn’t dented her confidence then she looks a leading contender. As an eight-year-old with the right weight and winning form over the distance she ticks plenty of boxes. EXMOOR RANGER is next best on the trends but his first preference is the Sky Bet Chase at Doncaster so can’t be suggested so NYCTEOS is probably just about the next best despite his trainer having a 0-2-10 record in the race.

OSCAR BAY
FIT TO DRIVE

Doncaster 2.20
When compared to his hurdles mark Prince Taime looks to have a clear chance here on his chase handicap debut but he hasn’t entirely convinced since being switched to the bigger obstacles and so while he is respected the vote goes to BEDLAM BOY. His trainer clearly thinks plenty of him seeing as he’s been entered in the Arkle and so while that would at first seem a mere pipedream you’d like to think that he’d go close in this off 130. In a very hot looking race Nikos Extra and Green Belt Elite must also be considered.

BEDLAM BOY

Cheltenham 2.35
Seven runners and on the face of it a tricky little race to try and solve. Denman was entered for this and his presence would have made for an easier update but as it is we’re left with an open looking affair which could well see last year’s winner, JOE LIVELY, going close once again. A dead heat on the trends with 2009 winner Joe Lively and 2008 winner KNOWHERE sharing top billing. They hit identical trends, being aged 10+, set to carry a penalty, have a previous course winner under their belts and are previous graded winners. If I was to side with just one though it would be Joe Lively as you’d have to say the Twiston-Davies yard aren’t exactly in sparkling form right now. Of the remainder INCHIDALY ROCK makes the most appeal and it would come as no surprise to see him put up a very bold performance.

JOE LIVELY
KNOWHERE

Doncaster 2.50
POSSOL is being geared towards the Grand National but he’s no slouch over hurdles and connections have been making hay with him mopping up a couple of novice hurdles. That said he’s a very talented horse and for me he’s the one to beat in this event. The Betchworth Kid will be the popular horse but Alan King’s runner needs to improve – every chance he will mind – to beat Henry Daly’s charge and I can see Possol boxing on and holding the Listed class flat performer.

POSSOL

Cheltenham 3.10
Form vs. Potential. Restless Harry was beaten just ½ a length in Grade 1 company last time out while General Miller is well known to be one of Nicky Henderson’s top juvenile’s. As a result it is difficult to try and split the pair of them and it could be worth looking elsewhere. The horse in question is the Paul Nicholls trained ROYAL CHARM who looks sure to relish this step up in trip and the manner of his convincing victory over the useful James De Vassy last time out was most impressive.

ROYAL CHARM

Doncaster 3.25
With this being a 48hr dec race I’ve been looking through the Sky Bet Chase since Thursday but even after all this time it looks fiendishly difficult! Gone To Lunch was one I was instantly drawn to but after his no show at Chepstow in the Welsh National he couldn’t be suggested with any confidence. Calgary Bay and Killyglen have the class to take this despite big weights but I couldn’t be certain over Seven Is My Number in a big field like this (he just strikes me as being better in a smaller field). I seem to have this between two, KICKS FOR FREE and KHACHATURIAN. The former isn’t the most reliable of sorts and you could question his suitability for this test. That said his trainer clearly thinks he’ll get the trip and he has some very useful bits of form to his name. My second pick is still in his novice season but his light weight will count for plenty. Although this may be too much too soon in his career over fences he has plenty of experience over hurdles (including some decent efforts in competitive handicaps).

KICKS FOR FREE
KHACHATURIAN

Cheltenham 3.40
A decent sized field and maybe 2008 Arkle winner Tidal Bay could rediscover his form and if so he should probably win this. That is a big IF though as he’s looked out of love with the game in recent starts and it is perhaps safer to sidestep him for the time being. Katchit and Mr Thriller finished behind Sentry Duty at this track on New Year’s Day and I’d say they need to improve a touch if they are to win this. So, LIE FORRIT, who has swept all before him thus far this season, is taken to continue his improvement and land the biggest race of his career to date. He is a previous winner round here which is another positive. The admiral Fair Along looks the e-w option.

LIE FORRIT

Doncaster 4.00
It’s no secret that connections think very highly of ALEGRALIL and there is every chance her unbeaten four race career will become five after this event. You can’t question anything she has done to date and despite her handicap mark of just 120(!) her trainer is obviously not worried about blowing what is an extremely attractive mark. That is perhaps a hint in itself and all roads will surely be leading to the David Nicholson Mares’ race at the Festival so she’s got to win this.

ALEGRALIL

Cheltenham 4.20
OLDRIK is as consistent as they come and in twenty runs over hurdle she has finished in the first three on eleven occasions. His latest effort saw him finish second at Ascot and although the handicapper has edged him up slightly in the weights he isn’t out of this. Normally seen to best effect after a little break he should be raring to go after 71 days off the track. Top weight TAKEROC is another to catch my eye, despite his big weight. This will be his first run since April but that shouldn’t be an issue and although he seems to have slightly lost his way this represents his ‘easiest’ task for some time. Normally seen contesting Graded races over fences this will be his first run in handicap company outside of graded affairs and he could have too much class if he comes back into the game all guns blazing.

OLDRICK
TAKEROC

Sunday

Punchestown 1.30
Even though he’s a high quality horse I couldn’t tip, let alone back, Big Zeb with his jumping record so I’d much sooner be on GOLDEN SILVER. The Willie Mullins trained runner has won his last two starts, the latest being a Grade 1, and he’ll be right at home in the heavy ground. On ratings he has got very little to find with Big Zeb and the looks the one to be on.

GOLDEN SILVER

Punchestown 2.30
3m 4f on heavy ground, rather them than me! In what looks a wide open affair I’ll take one from the top, PARSONS PISTOL, and one from the bottom, HIGH FIDELITAY. The former relishes this sort of assignment and although his big weight is obviously not ideal we can at least be sure that he’ll stay the trip and act on the ground. The latter suggested he would be worth a go over an extreme distance like this when staying on to finish 3rd at Navan at the start of December. His handicap mark means he gets in here from near the foot of the weights and with some of his better form coming on soft ground he too should be at home in the conditions.

PARSON PISTOL
HIGH FIDELITAY

Punchestown 3.00
HELLO LADIES caused a 25/1 shock when accounting for Saludos at Leopardstown over Christmas and although they re-oppose on different terms here the result could be the same. Early betting shows that bookmarkers expect the runner-up to turn the tables on his conqueror that day but that could be doing a disservice to the winner and Noel Meade’s progressive looking hurdler is taken to confirm that Grade 1 form.

HELLO LADIES

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