bettrends.co.uk

Neil is on holiday for a fortnight so you have Ian Grimwood back in the fold for this weekend’s action. I am not sure that we need an update to work out that the Toteswinger Challengers Novices’ Chase is between Punchestowns and Tchico Polos but we will give it a go anyway.

TOTESWINGER CHALLENGERS NOVICES’ CHASE – SANDOWN, Feb 6^th
This race has a history of throwing up small fields and this year is no different, so with only five runners declared we have the luxury of looking at each horse in detail.

Commanche Dream – Being a seven-year-old he fits in well with the age stat as six and seven-year-olds have won eight of the last ten renewals but that is about it when it comes to positives. He is unproven over the trip, failed to finish in the top two on his last start (in fact in all of his starts if you were being picky) and is trained by a trainer who is having his first runner in this race to my knowledge. I expect him to be a massive price and I shall be amazed if he is good enough to even hang up with the principals.

Final Bid – Again, he scores well on the age front before it all starts to go pear shaped. Rated 104 over hurdles he was beaten by 53L on his sole start of fences at Warwick in December, so realistically that tells us all we need to know. If that wasn’t bad enough, he is unproven over 2m4f, hails from a yard with no history in this race and is likely to available at very long odds tomorrow.

Pocket Aces – No eight-year-old has managed to win this race in the last decade so that is one hurdle he has to overcome. He also failed to achieve a top two finish on his latest start and hails from a stable not usually associated with this race. On the plus side, I wouldn’t have thought he would have a problem with the trip judged on his victories at Folkestone and Taunton last year. He should have the beating of the previously mentioned horses but he will need something to go wrong with the two principals if he is to figure.

Punchestowns – The right age, a winner last time out, proven form over 2m4f and likely to start at the head of the betting. The only downside I can see is that Nicky Henderson hasn’t won this race since 1987 when First Bout brought home the bacon. What more can I tell you about this horse that you don’t already know? I thought his sole run over fences at Newbury was nothing more than a piece of work so it is difficult to see how he will fare when he is asked a serious question, but there is little doubt that this horse has an engine.

Tchico Polos – Falls down on the fact that he was a faller last time and technically isn’t proven over 2m4f although personally I have no doubts over the trip. Six-year-olds have won this race four times in the last decade so that is a tick in the right box before we move onto the Nicholls factor. The Champion Trainer has won each of the last four renewals of this race, which is a massive positive for this fellow? Trends are strange things as they can be interpreted in a number of ways. If you are an eternal optimist, Nicholls’ recent domination is a massive positive for any runner he saddles this year. However, if you are a pessimist you could suggest that four on the bounce is a good return and therefore the odds are that he is due a year when he will come up short.

CONCLUSION
Personally, this is a ‘no bet’ race for me. I think PUNCHESTOWNS will take all of the beating but at the sort of prices available I wouldn’t want to get involved, I would rather watch from home and get some Festival clues. If you must have a bet, why not double up on the Handicap Hurdle or even better still use the money for that Ante Post bet that you have been holding off having.

TOTESCOOP6 HEROES HANDICAP HURDLE – SANDOWN
The winning age groups in this race seem so peculiar that I am not sure I would want to get too caught up in it. There doesn’t appear to be any logical reasoning behind it so I am going to cut the five and eight-year-olds some slack initially. However, I think it is significant that horses aged in double figures don’t have the best of records so I am against CHIEF YEOMAN (last year’s winner), LOUGH DERG, RACING DEMON, MAGIC SKY and ARCALIS although that may prove dangerous in the case of the later after Tidal Bay’s exploits last weekend.

Apart from BARACOUDA, horses near the top of the handicap don’t have the greatest of records in this race. In fact, it is the horses in the 120-129 bracket that appear to hold the upper hand but that causes a problem in its own right as only one would qualify this year and we have already ruled him out on age grounds. Therefore, I am not going to rule anything out in this area although I shall be cautious around the top three or four. The weights are slightly more informative as 10st 10lbs appears to be the cut off weight according to previous years. With that in mind I am going against TRENCHANT on 11st 1lb.

When it comes to trainers, lets deal with the negatives first. Venetia Williams may have won this race last year with CHIEF YEOMAN but overall her record isn’t great, so I am quite happy that we have already ruled out her runner following up. Paul Nicholls is the man to follow having won this race twice in the last decade as well as saddling two runners-up from just six runners so that is a big positive for BESHABAR, despite the fact that he is running from out of the handicap proper. Where he does fall down however is the fact that he could only finish 4^th on his most recent start, as seven of the last ten winners in this race had all previously been in the top three. That also brings doubts over ASHKAZAR, STRAWBERRY, MERRYDOWN, SILK AFFAIR and ALDERLUCK.

This 2m6f will take some getting tomorrow and it is no surprise that horses already proven over 2m4f historically have held the upper hand. To be honest, most don’t appear to have a problem in this area but with the ground riding soft at Sandown I am inclined to favour those capable of winning over 2m6f+. The final trend to consider is the one surrounding the betting. When you consider that this race usually attracts a competitive line up, the fact that seven of the last ten renewals went to either the first or second favourite speaks volumes. Of course, you are always going to get the odd shock in a race such as this so I wouldn’t rule out a long shot on price alone but logic suggests it is the principals that are the main ones to follow. At the time of writing no books have been formed and I am finding it tough to try and second guess how they will open up on this race. So the best advise here is have a look in the morning before laying any money on the line. Personally, I shall have a quick look early on and then go to the bets 4 free section of this site to see if I can prevail myself of some of the free offers available.

SHORTLIST
STRATEGIC APPROACH
ERZEN
(STRAWBERRY)

CONCLUSION
No horse survives all of the negatives but STRATEGIC APPROACH fares better than most. His only downfall is the fact that eight-year-olds don’t have the greatest of records here for some unknown record. However, elsewhere he performs well racing off the lowest weight, proven over the trip and a runner-up on his most recent start. He trainer, Warren Greatrex is a relative newcomer so can’t have a strong record in this race but I am sure that he is a young man going places judged on his efforts so far. This son of Bob Back has progressed from start to start this season and I thought he really came of age when stepped up to three miles at Chepstow in December. His jumping looked much more fluent and he appeared to relish the testing conditions. He followed that with another sound effort when stepping into handicap company at the same track, only going down by the narrowest of margins to more experienced rival. Despite being an eight-year-old he doesn’t have many miles on the clock and I don’t think he has stopped improving yet. I accept that he will need to improve to figure here, especially from 5lbs out of the handicap, but I would be willing to take a punt on him.

Nicky Henderson’s supposed second string, ERZEN, has even fewer miles on the clock but being a five-year-old has plenty of time on his side. He fares well from a trends point of view but I would have prefered to see Geraghty on board, had he been able to do the weight. He is another that will have to improve significantly to figure but judged on his recent second at Kempton on Boxing Day, I wouldn’t rule out a big effort tomorrow, as long as he doesn’t pose his conditional rider too many problems as he hasn’t looked the most straight forward of animals. Henderson’s other runner STRAWBERRY also fares reasonably well but it is a worry how she went out like a light at Ascot last time. Despite starting the 5/2 favourite it was as if someone switched off the power as she went from a prominent position to being tailed off in a matter of strides. Something was clearly amiss but Henderson could offer no explanation after the race. I wouldn’t have thought it was the trip that troubled her, more likely the testing conditions. Although she has won on soft ground in the past I feel she is a better animal on a slightly sounder surface but either way I don’t think I would be tempted to back her until I am sure it was a one off.