bettrends.co.uk

I have one bet this week in the World Hurdle but I’ve had to bit the bullet a little as I don’t think I will get the price that I wanted in a market without Big Buck’s with a bookmaker betting each-way so have gone in for the whole hog in the outright market.

THIS WEEK’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Time For Rupert (ew) (World Hurdle) - Best prices: 25/1 Paddy Power, Boylesports, Betfred, William Hill, Sportingbet; 22/1 Skybet; 20/1 General

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
I’m won over! It took me a while but Dunguib was sensational in the Deloitte Hurdle where the only points too crab were two sloppy jumps in the early stages but they can be put down to him being put to sleep at the back and he jumped well when asked to warm to his task. Don’t get me wrong, I have always thought he would be tough to beat at Cheltenham but I didn’t think he deserved to be as short as he was as his form centred around beating Some Present a couple of times (and he has beaten him by about the same distance again here back in third) but he had even more of a swagger on this occasion and Philip Fenton has ended all speculation where he runs at the Festival confirming him to this race where he will start at odds-on. That awesome performance was probably enough to frighten a few more off rivals to the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle over 2m5f to ease his task further. Grey Soldier, who had previously chased home Rite Of Passage, also won at the weekend which increased his chances of travelling over but, other than that, it was a very quiet week on the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle front.

ARKLE TROPHY
Everything went smoothly for Captain Cee Bee in his final prep bar a minor blip at the final fence but at least this time he stood up unlike at Leopardstown and connections couldn’t have really wished for a better performance as he was neat and polished up until the last and won at his leisure beating some useful types without taking much out of himself. Somersby missed Doncaster in the end which means that he, alongside Sizing Europe and Riverside Theatre, will head to the race not having run during the calendar year and the last time the Arkle winner did not race since the turn of the year was back in 1966. Incidentally, the winner that year had his last start winning the Henry VIII Chase which is where Somersby took care of Crack Away Jack on his final start. That means Henrietta Knight has decided to also skip a clash with Long Run in the Kingmaker Novices’ Chase at Warwick on Saturday that has been a cracking Arkle guide when it has beaten the weather. The very fact that Long Run heads for an Arkle trial has got punters latching on to him for this race rather than the RSA Chase even though his trainer says the ‘RSA’ is the more likely option but, to be honest, I don’t think he really knows and if he blows them away at Warwick, housing the ‘RSA’ favourite in Punchestowns, the huge temptation would be to run in the Arkle. Woolcombe Folly entered the picture with his nose defeat of I’m Delilah in the Grade 2 Lightning Chase on his seasonal and chase debut so may end up being the Nicholls number one after Tataniano’s shock defeat the previous week but that form looks well short of what is required in a year featuring many high-class ex-hurdlers. Mad Max had no excuses back in third which appears to have burst his bubble as far as being a fringe Arkle player is concerned and similar comments apply to Bedlam Boy who was beaten by a three-miler over 2m3f on the same card. Osana is due to have his final prep race in the next couple of weeks where I suspect he will be held up this time.

CHAMPION HURDLE
Binocular was the centre of attention this week and didn’t impress everybody when outclassing two inferior rivals at Sandown. I may have got this all wrong but I was quite taken with him actually as I felt he showed more verve than in his previous two races but McCoy came back and reported he is still not giving him the same feel as last season so maybe that hard race he endured in the Champion Hurdle has really taken the edge off him. Nicky Henderson was more bullish than the jockey about his performance and two recent third-place finishers in the Champion Hurdle in Brave Inca and Punjabi has lifted the crown the following season so it can be done but I have to say that of the five horses priced at single-figures for the race, he would be vying for the one I least fancy alongside Khyber Kim. The more and more I think about this race, although I feel our ante-post each-way interest Punjabi will run his usual good solid race, I am coming down to the thinking that Solwhit will win if it comes up on the soft side of good-to-soft and Go Native could defy the stats if it were to come up the other way round – those stats being the terrible record of the reigning Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and Christmas Hurdle winner. I still maintain Zaynar is under-priced. With Philip Fenton finally confirming Dunguib to the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, it doesn’t look like we will have any novice representation in this season’s race so it will be interesting to see if he is left in at the next forfeit stage to back up what they have said.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
This is looking more and more like a hard race to find an ante-post bet in. Doncaster on Saturday was supposed to be when the Brits put down a serious marker for this race but Alegralil got found out moving up in class and My Petra was caught close home by another Irish horse in Zarinava therefore tightening the Irish stranglehold on the race. Jessica Harrington’s grey is now a best-priced 16/1 after that victory over two miles but her trainer is greatly concerned whether she is as effective over 2m4f and she was comfortably put in her place at Leopardstown over that distance on her previous start by Voler La Vedette giving Colm Murphy’s mare a form boost. The eye-catching performance from the home team over the last week was Candy Creek winning in style at Musselburgh for Nicky Henderson. Still a novice, but so was Whiteoak when she won the inaugural running in 2008, she won the valuable mares’ bumper at the Grand National Meeting last season when trained by John Kiely in Ireland and then switched hands for £200,000. This season Candy Creek has won two of her three novice hurdles, the defeat coming at Newbury on testing ground and she looks the most upwardly mobile of the British defence though the Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle has also been mentioned as a Festival target, a race the same owners won last year.   

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
None of the market leaders strutted their stuff over the last week but an interesting contender here could be Fionnegas who chased home Dunguib on Sunday and would have run out an impressive 11 lengths’ winner without the season’s star novice in the race so he is a serious contender for whichever novice event they head for between this contest and the Albert Bartlett Hurdle as Willie Mullins seems to have already conceded it is a futile exercise taking on Dunguib again. I did feel quotes of 25/1 were on the big side but I don’t like playing guessing games with other people’s money in terms of what race a horse will go for and he has plenty of staying novices to juggle around notably Quel Esprit and Enterprise Park so I can not put him up anywhere until his chosen route looks to be done and dusted. Then again, I am not sure I want to take Rite Of Passage on with anything if this is his aim so I rather hope he goes for the three-miler. I would rate Finian’s Rainbow as the best of the Brits at this stage ahead of his stablemate Quantativeeasing although he is the bigger-priced as he shaped like the best horse in the Challow Hurdle to me before heavy ground brought Reve De Sivola’s greater stamina into play but, again, we can not be sure about his Festival target.

RSA CHASE
I was a little surprised that Weapon’s Amnesty was slightly pushed out with a couple of firms after his good second in the Dr P J Moriarty Chase as, given my concerns beforehand that the drop down in trip would not suit this strong stayer and that he much prefers decent ground so the testing surface would have also been against him, I thought he ran a perfectly respectable RSA Chase trial and I now look forward to seeing him back up to three miles on the better ground the Festival usually provides. He did take a while again for his jumping to warm to the task which has been a trait in his races and that is the area that would worry me. As for the surprise all-the-way winner, Citizen Vic, Willie Mullins won this race with Cooldine last season before winning the RSA Chase and he is clearly improving at a rate of knots so it would be dangerous to overlook him but, as far as ante-post action is concerned, his trainer also mentioned the Powers Gold Cup at Fairyhouse as a possible objective so he is no certain runner here as yet. It is really hard to fancy anything else that contested the race as Cousin Vinny just doesn’t like chasing and now looks set to head back to hurdles and Aranleigh, Lenabane and Oscar Looby ran poorly. The injury to Mighty Man has ruled him out for the season which has strengthened Punchestown’s position at the head of the market after his win at Sandown. I felt it was right to leave him at the same price after that victory and I would have shortened rather than lengthened him if pressed as he did well to recover from a serious blunder to win so breezily but, as far as his RSA Chase chance is concerned, it is noticeable that bad error occurred at the first downhill fence he has jumped in a race and there are at least four of those in the ‘RSA’, two of which during the hottest part of the race – three out and two out. The fact that his stablemate and second-favourite, Long Run, heads to an Arkle trial this week has heightened speculation that he may bypass the race but no one really knows and he remains strong on Betfair for this race. Weird Al confirmed his victory over Knockara Beau in the Towton Novices’ Chase from when they met at Cheltenham in November. I felt the latter may have gained his revenge on 8lbs better terms but it shows just how nicely Weird Al is progressing to give him a more comprehensive beating on worse terms this time and he looks like being the only serious contender with winning chase form at the course going into the race, a feat he has achieved twice. Three fairly recent winners of that Wetherby Grade 2 race have also finished second here which is another pointer in his favour. Another performance that was hard to fault was Tazbar’s defeat of some useful types by 14 lengths over 2m3f given the trip would have been plenty short enough for the Feltham Chase runner-up. That was a form boost for Long Run who beat him with considerable ease at Kempton and it could be his best chance of picking up a top staying chase may be at Aintree over 3m1f.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
It wasn’t my weekend that just passed summed up by this race where I could not give Kalahari King a second thought given his trainer’s comments that he would improve tremendously for the run and that he would be delighted if he finished in midfield so I can understand why some punters felt put away by Ferdy Muphy who is usually over-optimistic with his comments about his horses talking them up to be better than they actually are. That was the second time in as many weekends following Taranis, that trainers’ comments have worked out to be opposite of what they thought (and Cooldine almost completed the hat-trick on Sunday) so many of us including myself are too guilty as taking what they say about their horses’ fitness at face value. Moving on, I thought it was a terrific performance by the winner and he has even joined Twist Magic in some lists as joint second-favourite. On ratings, he should be a significantly higher price in comparison to the rejuvenated Tingle Creek and Victor Chandler Chase winner but, of course, we can not be sure that Twist Magic will run to those same figures at Cheltenham. In a head-to-head bet for this race I would go with Kalahari King as I am sure he is the one most likely to run his race and he has that rare commodity of possessing a turn of foot. That victory was off a mark of 157 and I am guessing he will go up to around 165 so that now puts him in the ball park of what is required. His conqueror in the Arkle Trophy, Forpadydeplasterer, on the other hand has been taken out of the betting following news from his trainer that he is almost certain to miss the race due to lameness. That may not sound like a serious injury, but Tommy Cooper clearly feels it will impact sufficiently on his training regime so he wouldn’t be cherry ripe on the day and there is no point taking on the likes of Master Minded off the back of a far-from-ideal preparation. As for the two-time defending champion, hopefully we shall know a lot more about his wellbeing on Saturday when he is set to contest the Game Spirit Chase. I say hopefully as the forecast for the week is to get colder and colder and this meeting was lost last year. His stablemate, Free World, now looks increasingly more likely to miss the Champion Chase now that Master Minded in the same ownership is back on track and he would have little chance of placing on his run behind Kalahari King at the weekend anyhow.  

CORAL CUP
One of my luckier handicaps at the Festival, horse names are now being banded around for this race by their respective trainers and Alan King has the race in mind for both Sir Harry Ormesher and Saticon after winning and finishing fourth in the same Doncaster handicap hurdle at the weekend. Both would have chances and Saticon, who needs decent ground, ran a cracker at the track when third in last season’s Fred Winter off top weight considering he gave the outside to no one and he may prove to be the overlooked one of the pair. Depending on what weight the handicapper gives him, another horse I will be looking at very closely is Paul Nolan’s Noble Prince as this looks his trip judged on his non-staying third to Powerstation over 3m in a Grade 1 at Christmas and his trainer commented this is the race he feels he will end up in at the Festival. I backed him that day and was counting my winnings as he kicked clear but then fell in a heap but he is crying for better ground being a Group 2 horse on the Flat for Andre Fabre and a combination of not testing ground and 2m5f makes him highly interesting. Rated in the high 140s in Ireland, he should get a similar rating as the general rule is that horses rated over 140 in Ireland will be given the same mark (or not far off it) over here and as I rate him a potential Grade 1 horse, that would mean he could be a stone well-in if I am right. Sadly no prices will be available until Wednesday, March 3^rd when the weights are released and, I will remind you on the Monday of that week that I will squeeze in another of these previews the next day as that will be the best chance to take advantage of the first prices for all the handicap races.  

RYANAIR CHASE
Joncol and Schindler’s Hunt did their Ryanair Chase chances no harm at all in the Irish Hennessy and both were shortened (I didn’t see too many horses lengthen in return though which is what we are up against). Just a word of warning though if you think that Joncol’s class and progression can see him through and win a third Grade 1 of the season, his trainer stated afterwards that he is only 50-50 to run here as they have the Guinness Gold Cup at Punchestown also on his agenda. “This was his Gold Cup” was Paul Nolan’s post-race assessment after Joncol left it late to grab a not-fully-fit Cooldine close home, maybe a little too late as they were mindful of what transpired in the Lexus Chase when he had the gun put to his head from a long way out eyeballing Notre Pere in front down the back straight. A giant of a horse standing over 18 hands tall that bypassed hurdling altogether, he did well to win having running down the final fence and can develop into a live Gold Cup hope for 2011 but, recognising this is a year too soon, connections took away any temptation by not even entering so it’s the Ryanair or nothing as far as this season’s Festival is concerned. He is unquestionably unlucky not to be entering the Ryanair, if this is indeed the plan, off the back of three consecutive Grade 1 chase wins as he easily won the ‘John Durkan’ before his unfortunate Lexus Chase defeat as, in addition to being ridden too aggressively on that occasion, the race was allowed delayed by fog for 24 hours by which time the ground had taken a turn for the worse or otherwise he may have held on. A close-up third in last season’s Ryanair beaten less than three lengths as an unfancied 22/1 shot, Schindlers Hunt confirmed that was no fluke as he arguably should have won the Melling Chase with a better jump at the final fence (was also far from ideal two out) eventually losing out to Voy Por Ustedes by only a head running almost pound to pound with the winner on ‘Ryanair’ running and what he wants is 2m5f on decent ground so his third behind Joncol in the Irish Hennessy, where he looked the most likely winner at the final fence until his stamina gave way over three miles on testing ground, was a screamer of a run where he didn’t help himself again with a last-fence mistake. The only time he has had his ground this season was at Ascot in November when he was a disappointing fourth behind Albertas Run but the trip of 2m3f would have been short enough for him. Beaten in his last 12 attempts in Grade 1 company, and no spring chicken with 25 chase starts on the board, although he could conceivably place again, it is hard seeing him going all the way. Looking at collateral formlines, Kalahari King’s win at Doncaster can be viewed as a positive for Planet Of Sound as he only finished a place behind in last season’s Arkle despite a series of mistakes, notably at the first fence which shuffled him back to rear from the start. The Ascot Chase in two weeks’ time is his next port of call.

WORLD HURDLE
Nothing of note has occurred on the track but I have had a good think since last weekend and feel we should dip into the 25/1 to each-way stakes offered about TIME FOR RUPERT. My reluctance to go in last week was because I wanted more firms to bet without Big Buck’s who is clearly going to take all the beating, but just three are offering such a market and, of those, only Victor Chandler are betting each-way and offer just 8/1 in that market and I would prefer bigger and I don’t think I am going to get it except in win-only markets without the favourite so I have bitten the bullet. I do like the Cleeve Hurdle as a guide as since it was upped to three miles it has been the key trial and I fancy him to reverse placings with Tidal Bay for a few reasons; (1) I don’t entirely trust Tidal Bay to run the same race twice, (2) Time For Rupert is the horse improving at a faster rate of knots, (3) he will meet the winner on 4lbs better terms for five lengths and (4) hopefully he will not be ridden so aggressively as he did well to finish second after racing prominently in a race run at an unrelenting gallop and he was the only horse to race on the pace that finished anywhere remotely close so the contest was set up for Tidal Bay who sat back and watched. The most important of those factors is that he is highly progressive and he has improved plenty with each of his last three starts. How you want to play this I am not sure but it could be an option to limp in with a half-stake each-way bet now and wait to see if any bookmakers do offer us 10/1 each-way without Big Buck’s and then have our other half stake on should that eventuality occur, or just back him place-only when the time allows as I am under no illusions the task he faces in taking on the odds-on favourite. I don’t want to back him win-only in a market without the favourite as I have plenty of time for Karabak. Mourad was the other horse I was contemplating as an each-way dig but we know Time For Rupert definitely stays and has run two blinders at the course and isn’t a five-year-old unlike Mourad (and they have never won it) so those reasons swung it. Cousin Vinny could get the chance to redeem his reputation having failed to shine over fences and Willie Mullins mentioned he is still in this race after his latest disappointment so this may well be his Festival target. We saw how much of a lift Tidal Bay received when he was sent back hurdling and Cousin Vinny was rated the best bumper horse of all time by Timeform two seasons ago and such horses usually end up being three-milers so he is one to consider from left field.

TRIUMPH HURDLE
I would say our ante-post position remained good after the last seven days’ events as on the plus side for our Mille Chief and Secant Star bets, According blew out big style on his hurdling debut at Sandown having been punted into second-favourite for the Triumph which totally bemused Nicky Henderson who stated after his grey ran as green as grass that he was one of a few juveniles they had to come out in the coming weeks but he certainly didn’t give the impression he felt he was unquestionably their best. Also well beaten in that race was Prince Pippin who is now the third horse from Advisor’s race at Ascot to run below expectations next time out so that look form is looking very dodgy for Paul Nicholls’ charge. On the negative side for our bets, both Irish winners at the weekend, Carlito Brigante and Pittoni advanced their claims and the former is now the new second favourite having won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle at Musselburgh. It was a convincing performance from Gordon Elliott’s charge as the runner-up, Ultimate, looks a real speed track specialist but was comfortably brushed aside with the race surely coming too soon for last week’s Finesse Hurdle winner, Baccalaureate (what were they thinking?). Pittoni also took the eye winning what is traditionally Ireland’s best guide to the Triumph Hurdle but their shortest three in the betting for Cheltenham at the time bypassed the race so it looked weaker than usual but the winner put the race to bed very nicely. Bred to be superstar on the Flat by an Arc winner out of a Yorskhire Oaks winner, he only won a maiden in four starts for John Oxx but appears to have found his niche at this game and switch to Charles Byrnes. 

GOLD CUP
With the weather planning to take a turn for the worse as the week progresses, I wonder whether connections will regret not running Denman in the Argento Chase should Newbury fall to the elements for the second year running? Also last week, the owners confirmed what the bookmakers seemed to have known for a while that A P McCoy will take the ride in the AON Chase and Gold Cup. I am not sure what Sam Thomas did wrong as he appeared to carry out instructions to the letter in the last two Gold Cups and I think he gets on great with the horse whereas as I am not totally sold on the idea McCoy will do a better job. One thing I am sure of is that the Irish Hennessy witnessed the return to form of Cooldine and I did need a little persuading he had got over his brutal win in the RSA Chase and this fine effort confirmed it. Willie Mullins had stated beforehand he felt he would fail for lack of match practice from two out but a slower than anticipated gallop meant he almost held on to the death and he is certain to improve for the race. Given he would have won the RSA Chase by even further had it been run over the two-furlongs longer trip of the Gold Cup, I would be very hopeful he will also improve for the step up in trip in the blue riband and, if one horse can mix it with the big two, I believe it will be him as I don’t think he knows when to lay down when he is at the top of his game. For those reasons, I would have him ahead of Imperial Commander in the outright and betting without the favourite markets as he will just keep battling away even if beaten but I could see the others throwing the towel in. The one horse the slow first two miles in the Irish Hennessy certainly didn’t suit was the out-and-out stayer Notre Pere and why they didn’t make it a test I don’t know. Crazy. If it came up heavy and I had backed Cooldine without the big two, he would still worry me as Jim Dreaper is old school and improving his fitness with each start but it would have to be testing.

FOXHUNTERS’ CHASE
The hunter chase season kicked off in Britain at the weekend and in Robbers Glen, we saw a legitimate contender win impressively. The problem is he is ridden by 49-year-old, owner-trainer Val Jackson who wouldn’t be as strong in a finish as the top amateurs so her mount has to be sufficiently superior to counteract that. Fifth in last season’s race under the same rider, a good run in last year’s Foxhunters’ has been in many a winner’s profiles recently. I am not sure what he beat at Wetherby but he fairly sprinted clear on the run-in and could be an improved horse because, at the age of ten, he is hardly old in hunter chase terms. The Raymond Smith Hunters’ Chase at Leopardstown on Sunday is traditionally Ireland’s best Foxhunters’ trial and there was an upset as Kilty Storm took the scalp of Agus A Vic who had won the previous two renewals. The winner of his previous two point-to-points including a defeat of the former Thyestes Chase and William Hill Chase winner, Dun Doire, who has impressed twice since, he was also in front rank and ran on strongly but connections did not immediately commit him to Cheltenham. Prior to returning to Ireland, he had dropped to only around a 100-rated chaser for David Pipe so clearly his new discipline has given him a new lease of life. As for Agus A Vic, who was the best hunter in Ireland and started favourite for the 2008 Foxhunters’ though connections gave last year’s race a miss by design, he just didn’t pick up for whatever reason but is definitely one not to write off. 

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase)
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
* Indicates market limited to not all bookmakers