bettrends.co.uk

With Neil still on his sabbaticals, I am back in the hot seat for what looks an ultra tough Grade 3 handicap from Newbury.

TOTESPORT TROPHY HURDLE – NEWBURY, Feb 13^th

With a pretty even spread of winning age groups in this race it is probably best not to get too caught up in this area. Personally, I think it may be best to focus on the five, six and seven-year-olds as they have won nine of the last ten renewals. With that in mind BLUE BAJAN misses the early cut which I am not too perturbed about as his mammoth weight also puts me off. The nine-year-olds RING THE BOSS and ARCH REBEL also miss out as unless they are able to repeat Geos’ effort in 2004, they have it all to prove.

When it comes to Official Ratings we have seen winners ranging from 120-149, so that doesn’t help us at all. With the highly rated BLUE BAJAN at the top of the weights most of his rivals fall into the ideal weight carrying bracket so it’s probably best to move on.    

With the exception of Sharpical, Spirit Leader and Heathcote each of the last ten winners had achieved a top three finish on their most recent start. If that trend is to be continued this year MAMLOOK, RONALDO DES MOTTES, SPIRIT RIVER, HARRY TRICKER, GET ME OUT OF HERE, FAIRYLAND, FUSHE JO and PASCHA BERE are the eight to focus on.

When it comes to trainers’ records none can match Nicky Henderson who has won four of the last ten renewals. This year SPIRIT RIVER looks to be his main chance although the chances of FIRST POINT, STRAVINSKY DANCER and FAIRYLAND shouldn’t be taken lightly. Gary Moore has been making inroads into his domination by winning the last two renewals with 50/1 and 14/1 shots so although HARRY TRICKER looks his main charge NUMIDE cannot be ruled out confidently. Philip Hobbs hasn’t won this race in the period being looked at but he has seen 8 of his 15 runners finish in the frame. RING THE BOSS has already been discounted for win purposes but OLDRIK from down the bottom of the weights wouldn’t be the worst 40/1 shot I have seen for each-way purposes. Strangely, Paul Nicholls hasn’t had the best of records in this race with each of his last 6 runners failing to land a blow whilst Jonjo O’Neill with an identical record is another to be slightly wary of. Completing the big three is David Pipe whose last four runners all failed to make the frame.

With the only key trial, the Pierse Hurdle, losing out to the snow in January there isn’t anything significant to go on in this area so I shall move swiftly on. Lightly raced animals have sound record in this race as seven of the last ten winners had raced no more than ten times over hurdles. From those still in contention RONALD DES MOTTES (10), SPIRIT RIVER (4), GET ME OUT OF HERE (3) and FUSHE JO (7) would appear to be getting their noses in front.

Finally, let’s have a look at the betting. This race tends to go to the top five or six in the betting and shocks are rare despite Heathcote’s 50/1 success on 2007. Therefore RONALD DES MOTTES (8/1), SPIRIT RIVER (13/2) and GET ME OUT OF HERE (9/1) maintain their stronghold.

SHORTLIST
SPIRIT RIVER
(GET ME OUT OF HERE)
(RONALD DES MOTTES)
(FUSHE JO)

CONCLUSION
Strictly speaking SPIRIT RIVER is the only horse to avoid any negatives. Being a five-year-old he is in the right age bracket, with Official Ratings boundaries, from a stable with the strongest record in the race, lightly raced and towards the forefront of the betting. He has only had the two starts in this country since moving from France and caught the eye on his debut when staying on in the closing stages behind GET ME OUT OF HERE at Newbury in November. I thought the lack of a run took its toll that day as he hit a bit of a flat spot in the straight before picking up again. Because of the jockeys’ claims, the pair met on level weights that day, so it is a slight concern that he is trying to give that rival 6lbs tomorrow. However, judged on the way he surged up the Cheltenham hill for a convincing 6L success on his next start, I am sure that we haven’t seen the best of him yet.

GET ME OUT OF HERE also makes it onto the shortlist as he matches him almost stride for stride. His only undoing is Jonjo’s recent record in the race but as the saying goes, the horse doesn’t know that. Strictly on the form, he should have the beating of the Henderson runner and at around 9/1 at present looks a solid bet. RONALDO DE MOTTES is in a similar position in that his only failing is David Pipe’s recent record in the race. I was impressed with him when he won at Kempton over Christmas but the handicapper has taken a dim view of it by upping him 11lbs. He was impressive but 11lbs seems harsh to me on what he had done previously. I was tempted to include HARRY TRICKER in the final shortlist as he clearly arrives here in good heart following a narrow defeat to Khyber Kim at Cheltenham in November. However, I have gone for glory and left him off as surely by the law of averages Gary Moore can’t win this race for a third successive year in favour of Howard Johnson’s FUSHE JO who has been lightly raced over hurdles and could remain open to further improvement after only going up 6lbs following his win at Wetherby in November. Currently around 33/1, I think he looks a tempting each-way bet to small stakes.