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SATURDAY 13th FEBRAURY

Newbury 1.30
For just a three/four runner affair this is quite a race. Inchidaly Rock tipped up on his last start but that was round Cheltenham outside of novice company so there is every chance he can bounce back to form here. That said DIAMOND HARRY was very impressive when winning on his debut over fences at Haydock last month (even allowing for the fall of Bensalem three from home) and he should confirm that form once more. For me it’s not a race to get too heavily involved in but Nick Williams’ runner is the call.

DIAMOND HARRY

Newbury 2.00
The booking of Barry Geraghty catches the eye on Queen Poline while the step back up in trip for Triggerman is also interesting. The fact Paul Nicholls perseveres with Alfie Sherrin over hurdles makes me think they believe a mark of 132 is within his compass and he merits serious respect despite this being his first run since October. He is probably worth a small saver against the main selection, TARATEENO. This is by far and away his toughest ask to date as hurdle wins off 98, 105 and 111 need stepping up from if he is to take this from 125. That said he’s won three of his last four and comes here at the top of his game. He looks well at home on soft ground so the forecast conditions won’t trouble him (although admittedly some rain wouldn’t go amiss) and from a nice racing weight may just be able to continue improving. So Now has his first run since May and money for him would require a second look as he appears to love a real stamina test.

TARATEENO
ALFIE SHERRIN

Warwick 2.15
This will ultimately decide the Cheltenham fate of LONG RUN – Arkle or RSA? Take The Breeze will love these conditions but Long Run was hugely impressive when winning the Feltham over 3m at Christmas and yes, ok, the 2m trip does pose a question mark here but the way he was running away with his jockey that day suggested it shouldn’t be a problem. He looks top class and for me is easily the one the one to beat. If you fancy him for the Arkle then he could be half the price after this race so bare that in mind.

LONG RUN

Newbury 2.30
Well DENMAN should win this en-route to the Gold Cup so it’s not a betting race for me. Niche Market may give him the most to do.

Gowran Park 2.35
A tricky little contest but in JUMBO RIO we have a horse that has become very consistent and a 4 ½ length defeat behind Solwhit on his last start reads well in the context of this race. Previous to that he was second in a Grade 1 in France and his 155 rating marks him down as a very useful sort. He must concede weight to his rivals today, the most dangerous of which appears to be Luska Lad, but he can be counted on to run to a decent level and he looks solid.

JUMBO RIO
 
Warwick 2.50
The application of a visor for the first time looks a good move the rather lazy shall we say WINTERWOOD. He was a good winner at Doncaster last time out and a 6lb higher mark looks fair. Despite needing a couple of early reminders that day he ultimately won well and should put up another bold show. Sonny Mullen may just need the ground a touch better than this to be seen to best effect while Merigo isn’t out of it from his much lower hurdles mark. However the biggest threat to the selection may emerge from OSCAR PRAIRIE who has suggested that this step up in trip would suit after a couple of ‘plodding on’ efforts over 2m 4f on his last two outings.

WINTERWOOD
OSCAR PRAIRIE e/w

Newbury 3.05
With a pretty even spread of winning age groups in this race it is probably best not to get too caught up in this area. Personally, I think it may be best to focus on the five, six and seven-year-olds as they have won nine of the last ten renewals. With that in mind BLUE BAJAN misses the early cut which I am not too perturbed about as his mammoth weight also puts me off. The nine-year-olds RING THE BOSS and ARCH REBEL also miss out as unless they are able to repeat Geos’ effort in 2004, they have it all to prove. When it comes to Official Ratings we have seen winners ranging from 120-149, so that doesn’t help us at all. With the highly rated BLUE BAJAN at the top of the weights most of his rivals fall into the ideal weight carrying bracket so it’s probably best to move on. With the exception of Sharpical, Spirit Leader and Heathcote each of the last ten winners had achieved a top three finish on their most recent start. If that trend is to be continued this year MAMLOOK, RONALDO DES MOTTES, SPIRIT RIVER, HARRY TRICKER, GET ME OUT OF HERE, FAIRYLAND, FUSHE JO and PASCHA BERE are the eight to focus on. When it comes to trainers’ records none can match Nicky Henderson who has won four of the last ten renewals. This year SPIRIT RIVER looks to be his main chance although the chances of FIRST POINT, STRAVINSKY DANCER and FAIRYLAND shouldn’t be taken lightly. Gary Moore has been making inroads into his domination by winning the last two renewals with 50/1 and 14/1 shots so although HARRY TRICKER looks his main charge NUMIDE cannot be ruled out confidently. Philip Hobbs hasn’t won this race in the period being looked at but he has seen 8 of his 15 runners finish in the frame. RING THE BOSS has already been discounted for win purposes but OLDRIK from down the bottom of the weights wouldn’t be the worst 40/1 shot I have seen for each-way purposes. Strangely, Paul Nicholls hasn’t had the best of records in this race with each of his last 6 runners failing to land a blow whilst Jonjo O’Neill with an identical record is another to be slightly wary of. Completing the big three is David Pipe whose last four runners all failed to make the frame. With the only key trial, the Pierse Hurdle, losing out to the snow in January there isn’t anything significant to go on in this area so I shall move swiftly on. Lightly raced animals have sound record in this race as seven of the last ten winners had raced no more than ten times over hurdles. From those still in contention RONALD DES MOTTES (10), SPIRIT RIVER (4), GET ME OUT OF HERE (3) and FUSHE JO (7) would appear to be getting their noses in front. Finally, let’s have a look at the betting. This race tends to go to the top five or six in the betting and shocks are rare despite Heathcote’s 50/1 success on 2007. Therefore RONALD DES MOTTES (8/1), SPIRIT RIVER (13/2) and GET ME OUT OF HERE (9/1) maintain their stronghold.

Strictly speaking SPIRIT RIVER is the only horse to avoid any negatives. Being a five-year-old he is in the right age bracket, with Official Ratings boundaries, from a stable with the strongest record in the race, lightly raced and towards the forefront of the betting. He has only had the two starts in this country since moving from France and caught the eye on his debut when staying on in the closing stages behind GET ME OUT OF HERE at Newbury in November. I thought the lack of a run took its toll that day as he hit a bit of a flat spot in the straight before picking up again. Because of the jockeys’ claims, the pair met on level weights that day, so it is a slight concern that he is trying to give that rival 6lbs tomorrow. However, judged on the way he surged up the Cheltenham hill for a convincing 6L success on his next start, I am sure that we haven’t seen the best of him yet. GET ME OUT OF HERE also makes it onto the shortlist as he matches him almost stride for stride. His only undoing is Jonjo’s recent record in the race but as the saying goes, the horse doesn’t know that. Strictly on the form, he should have the beating of the Henderson runner and at around 9/1 at present looks a solid bet. RONALDO DE MOTTES is in a similar position in that his only failing is David Pipe’s recent record in the race. I was impressed with him when he won at Kempton over Christmas but the handicapper has taken a dim view of it by upping him 11lbs. He was impressive but 11lbs seems harsh to me on what he had done previously. I was tempted to include HARRY TRICKER in the final shortlist as he clearly arrives here in good heart following a narrow defeat to Khyber Kim at Cheltenham in November. However, I have gone for glory and left him off as surely by the law of averages Gary Moore can’t win this race for a third successive year in favour of Howard Johnson’s FUSHE JO who has been lightly raced over hurdles and could remain open to further improvement after only going up 6lbs following his win at Wetherby in November. Currently around 33/1, I think he looks a tempting each-way bet to small stakes.

SHORTLIST
SPIRIT RIVER
(GET ME OUT OF HERE)
(RONALD DES MOTTES)
(FUSHE JO)

Gowran Park 3.10
Siegemaster has run a couple of fine races in top handicaps of late but the evergreen WATSON LAKE looks the one to be on here. When he last ran over this trip he was an easy winner of the Grade 2 Clonmel Oil Chase and although he was no match for the progressive Golden Silver in his two subsequent starts the return to this trip, and a small field, will suit him. If he gets his own way in front then he could jump his opponents into submission.

WATSON LAKE

Warwick 3.20
More questions than answers here. VICTORIAS GROOM looks just about the most solid option having won two of his last three starts. He’ll seemingly enjoy both the trip and the ground and with the opposition looking a mixed bunch is the default selection. Top weight Tarminbleu has thrown in a couple of moody performances of late so couldn’t really be trusted until he rediscovers some on his old spark while Saphir Des Bois is back on a tempting mark but he too hasn’t donw much recently, although the step up in trip may spark him back to form. It is dangerous to get carried away with horses who seem to stay on in the final stages of races and pass beaten horses and that could be the case with BUCK THE LEGEND after he stayed on to be fourth at Ascot last time out. That said he has a plummeting handicap mark, runs here from the foot of the weights and has blinkers on for the first time.

VICTORIAS GROOM
BUCK THE LEGEND e/w

Newbury 3.40
Master Minded is the obvious one here as on his day he is pretty much untouchable. However VOY POR USTEDES is no mug and this race will be far more suitable than the 3m on soft ground he tackled in Ireland over Christmas. Any chinks in MM’s armour will be exposed but one of the most consistent horses in training and he gets the nod from me. Fix The Rib is a horse I like and receiving weight from the ‘big 2’ mustn’t be completely ruled out.

VOY POR USTEDES

Newbury 4.15
Bellvano vs. TITO BUSTILLO. Is it as simple as that? Well, probably yes. There isn’t much between them on ratings (137 plays 133 respectively) but it is the Paul Nicholls runner I like more. On his penultimate start he showed a willing attitude to hold off the potentially useful The Betchworth Kid and those battling qualities may just come in handy here. The Nicky Henderson trained runner was readily brushed aside by Menorah on his last start and we’ll get a better idea about that one’s Cheltenham credentials after this. In a trappy little race side with the champion trainer.

TITO BUSTILLO

Newbury 4.45
Iris’s Gift and Cornish Rebel are just two of the previous winners of this race and with a first prize of over £10,000 it is predictably competitive. The majority were successful on their debuts so trying to weight up the relative merits of the form isn’t easy. I have this down to three, AMROTH BAY, Al Ferof and Made In Time, in that order. The selection hails from the Andrew Balding yard and is rare runner for the stable in this sphere. He made light work of his rivals in tricky conditions at Chepstow back in November and that performance suggested he had plenty more to come. Paul Nicholls saddles two but it is Irish import Al Ferof that appeals most (his other runner is Ramses De Marcigny). Any winner of an Irish bumper needs a second look and the fact he has now been purchased by top connections tells us plenty. The final horse on the shortlist easily won what was perhaps no more than an average bumper at Ffos Las but he could do no more than win and Tony McCoy gets the leg up here. Tough, and best to probably keep stakes to a minimum, but this could go the way of the flat trainer.

AMROTH BAY

SUNDAY 14th FBERUARY

Navan 2.10
If MOURAD is to develop into a genuine World Hurdle contender then a big run is needed here. Impressive when winning last time out he receives weight from all his rivals here and that puts him bang in the mix. War Of Attrition rolled back the years to score nicely at Gowran Park last month and once again has claims while Ninetieth Minute and Ebadiyan are also considered.

MOURAD

Exeter 3.00
NAJAF has his first run for Paul Nicholls here and all eyes will be on him. Obviously comparing French and English form isn’t easy but he was just behind the Irish trained Jumbo Rio on his final start in France, in a Grade 1, and a repeat of that effort will surely suffice.

NAJAF

Exeter 4.10
ALDERTUNE will be at home on this testing track and a 6lb rise for finishing second last time out may not stop him going one better. He is the one to beat in my book but for the e/w money SILVERBURN appeals. Ok so he’s on somewhat of a downward spiral at present but on his debut for his new stable he ran much better than a finishing position of sixth, beaten 77 lengths, would perhaps indicate. He badly needed the run that day and with 7lbs being taken off his back here he could go well.

ALDERTUNE
SILVERBURN e/w

Navan 4.55
It’s probably a bit annoying for connections on OSANA that he has started his novice chase campaign at the same time as the likes of Sizing Europe and Captain Cee Bee. That said he’s no back number himself and having won two from three over the bigger obstacles looks sure to go well here. Shakervilz won on his chase debut and should be open to plenty more improvement despite probably being at home over further than 2m whilst Tally Em Up is on a hat-trick and is clearly in great nick at present.

OSANA