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Firstly, for those of you that also receive the Wednesday copy looking taking an early look ahead at the weekend copy, apologies but that will be posted on Thursday this week as Wednesday is the signing off day for the Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide so I will be seriously under the cosh. At the moment it is about 20 pages longer than last year so I am trying to edit it down a little! It is published a week on Friday on the 26^th. I am up in sunny Leeds today recording the Preview CD in conjunction with William Hill which this year will also feature Donn McClean who has always providing my Irish Challenge content in the Guide, Sam Turner (Robin Goodfellow in the Daily Mail) and respected paddock reporter Ken Pitterson who has a weekly column in the Racing Post Weekender.

No advised ante-post bets for Cheltenham this week but they will come thick and fast soon when running plans for the novice hurdles become clearer, when the weights are released for the handicaps, when they start betting on the shoulder races such as the Foxhunters, NH Chase etc and when the non-runner no-bet stipulations are in place. I also have trips planned to Alan King and Nicky Henderson’s yards and will attend the unveiling of the Festival weights where many trainers are present.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
The J P McManus-owned pair of Get Me Out Of Here and Bellvano were the two big winners this week on the two-mile novice hurdling scene so A P McCoy will have an interesting decision to make if they both make it there but I suspect they won’t. The shorter of the pair is marginally the Totesport Trophy winner Get Me Out Of Here and the time of his win was certainly better than that posted by Bellvano on the same day but he also has the Neptune entry and I will be amazed if the McManus operation also don’t give him a Coral Cup and County Hurdle entry so he can not possibly be backed ante-post until we know his target and they will no doubt be watching the handicapper does very closely. Jonjo O’Neill commented after his win that he would probably be better over further and his owner does like the Coral Cup so I wouldn’t be shocked at all if he ended up there as Bellvano is all speed and it surely has to be the ‘Supreme’ or nothing for him. As for Bellvano, he clearly has class and speed but he didn’t convince me at all when he hit the front at Newbury as McCoy had to yank him back in or he could have ended up of the chase course so I can’t really have a horse like that on my mind for the Supreme. I felt in my weekend analysis that Luska Lad could cause an upset in the Red Mills Hurdle against established horses and, available at 10/1 in the morning, this is what he did though where he benefited from pinching a few lengths at the start and had an easy lead. He was cut in places for this race after this win but he is better on right-handed tracks and his trainer said he would miss Cheltenham for Punchestown after his last win. I am pretty suly Betfair are betting on this market. Blackstairmountain and Loosen My Load would be right up there as possibles for me in such a market at present but the latter may yet head for the Neptune.

ARKLE TROPHY
Long Run won the influential Arkle Trial at Warwick, the Kingmaker Chase over two miles, in the style of a serious horse considering he is really a three-miler but the general vibe I was getting afterwards was that it would be better for the horse if they kept to the original plan of running in the RSA Chase but who really knows where he will end up. The first fence down the back straight caused him a problem and he didn’t look entirely comfortable until he shook off King Edmond turning for home and then his stamina kicked in and he ran right away from horses that are anything but mugs. I have to say I would be slightly surprised if he ended up here but as far as trends are concerned, they scream out that the Arkle is the race for him. The only other relevant action concerned Osana who could only finish third in the Flyingbolt Chase and you would have to say he is simply not good enough over fences to win an Arkle on his last two runs. I have to say I think Captain Cee Bee is starting to look way too short at 7/2 (best price now) as I reckon you will get that on the day.

CHAMPION HURDLE
No real Champion Hurdle clues this week as Jumbo Rio, Noble Prince and Muirhead couldn’t beat the novice Luska Lad in the Grade 2 Red Mills Hurdle which was used by Hardy Eustace prior to his Champion Hurdle winning effort. I would imagine that on that evidence that Jumbo Rio and Noble Prince could now end up in the Coral Cup and who knows what they will do with Muirhead who ran a terrible race. Jumbo Rio was not favoured by the weights so it was a good effort from him especially as he spotted the winner five lengths at the start but whether his French Champion conqueror Rock Noir will now make the Champion Hurdle looks in doubt as I note he is now as big as 330/1 on Betfair. American Trilogy also looks like missing the race according to Paul Nicholls’ column after he missed last weekend’s Totesport Trophy. All eyes will be on Zaynar at Kelso later this week but I can’t imagine anything of any note will take him on so it can only be a no-win situation as far as last season’s Triumph Hurdle winner is concerned.

CROSS COUNTRY CHASE
Paddy Power are now betting on this race so at last we have a market outside of just the obvious two of Garde Champetre and L’Ami like Corals were offering There is only one horse that is going to interest me outside of that pair and that is Sizing Australia as I know from my stats how hard it is to win these races as 7yo so his two runs over this course at that age before the New Year were very good efforts in that circumstance and he will know more again this time and should also be a few more pounds better off with Garde Champetre if that means anything in these races. After this trio comes Maljimar who shaped well on his course debut but I get the feeling the Grand National is the main aim for him and then it is 25/1 bar those four so hopefully you can see why I am angling for an each-way bet on Sizing Australia. Once more firms go up I can see myself look closely at Sizing Australia each-way but ideally I want bigger than Paddy Power’s offer of 7/1 though I am not sure I will get it.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
With Stravinsky Dance disappointing again, the grip of the Irish on this race strengthened again at the weekend without them having to do anything aided by the fact that Silver Kate, who would have been a sporting outsider and won well at Bangor last week, has been confirmed for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle instead of this contest. It was thought that Willie Mullins could run Quevega in the Red Mills Hurdle last weekend but he wasn’t totally happy with her so missed the race and it is now looking likely she will bid to defend her title on her seasonal debut which isn’t ideal but he trainer is not concerned about that. It would appear the only hope the Brits have is if Whiteoak rediscovers her form or if Candy Creek is improving at a serious rate of knots but the Martin Pipe Hurdle has been mentioned for her. It is going to be very hard to see beyond Quevega and Voler La Vedette but No One Tells Me is no forlorn hope but I would ideally want more than 20/1 before I considered her each-way as she is effectively only gunning for one place. She has a couple of lengths to find with Voler La Vedette on her last run but Jessica Harrington feels she is open to plenty more improvement as she has just turned five and appreciates soft ground so opening day ground can suit her. At present she is the only mare that is attracting any of my interest for a possible each-way punt.

NH CHASE
Still no fixed-odds bookmaker has priced this up but Inchidaly Rock’s participation must be in doubt having returned injured after his last of three run behind Diamond Harry on Saturday which probably explained why he constantly jumped to the right. Before that race they were starting to talk in terms of the RSA Chase anyway so he is off my radar right now for this. One horse very much on my radar is Tony Martin’s Saddler’s Storm as I am hearing this is the plan and the yard were responsible for last season’s second, Drumconvis. Saddler’s Storm was no great shakes in his early chase starts over shorter distances but he bolted up by 18 lengths two starts ago when upped to a staying trip for the first time and was also significantly very well backed and he then followed up last week over three miles in testing ground under an inspired Ruby Walsh ride that just got him home. On that evidence he is a thorough stayer that is likely to appreciate the extra mile of this race. Fabalu was the other horse to catch the eye last week. Donald McCain Jnr’s eight-year-old jumped well and made all to win at Bangor last week beating Special Envoy and Pennek on heavy ground over 3m1f which suggest that four miles could bring around more improvement.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
The decision to probably run Rite Of Passage here rather than take on Dunguib in the Supreme must be even more tempting now following the defeat of the then ante-post second favourite Quantitativeeasing at Kempton to a horse not even entered for the Festival. In fairness, the winner got the run of the race in what was a crawl that would not have suited Nicky Henderson’s previously unbeaten horse but I wasn’t convinced he was top class before this race and am I certainly of the opinion he isn’t now and it has confirmed my impression stated before that I think Finians Rainbow is Henderson’s best hope for this race. The Betchworth Kid was even less suited to the slow pace so the close-up third was actually cut for this race after his defeat but I would think the Albert Bartlett looks the more likely option for him as the yard have Manyriverstocross for this who ran well when third in the Totesport Trophy repaying our each-way support from last week at less than half the price at which I advised him but I felt he could have been ridden closer to the pace but got the feeling they didn’t anticipate the pace not being as strong as hoped down the back straight. I just wonder if they might look at one of the handicaps for him though, The winner of that race was Get Me Out Of Here who was chopped into 14/1 but he is sure to have at least three other Festival entries in the Supreme, Coral Cup and County Hurdle so who knows where he will end up. My guess is maybe one of the handicaps. Before the French Triumph Hurdle third Najaf won at Exeter on Sunday, Paul Nicholls said this was his most likely Festival target and that he would improve a lot for the run and it was a pleasing enough performance considering 2m1f would have been on the short side. The stable’s Noland won the same race prior to winning the Supreme but Najaf wouldn’t have the pace for that. The Neptune looks favourite but he is also in the Albert Bartlett.

RSA CHASE
Considering the combination of track and trip was far from ideal for Long Run, I thought he was very classy winning the Kingmaker Chase but I do still have reservations about his jumping on an undulating course, the fact he is only five and their allowance was cut from 10lbs to 2lbs two years ago and the terrible record of Feltham winners in this race so would prefer Punchestowns of the Henderson pair. I would still prefer Long Run to Diamond Harry though who won at Newbury on the same afternoon, in fact, I prefer Bensalem to Diamond Harry as well as Nick Williams’ charge didn’t jump as well here as he did over the baby fences at Haydock and I am pretty sure that Bensalem would have beaten him but for a jolting error just as the race was hotting up. I am just not convinced that Diamond Harry is at his very best over three miles but I am very sure that the trip is exactly what Bensalem wants. I also don’t like the fact Diamond Harry will head to the RSA Chase off the back of just two chase runs as the last ten winners had at least three runs over fences. It was right in my opinion that Bensalem was cut with more firms than Diamond Harry was. It will be interesting to see if Punchestowns is given a third chase run in next weekend’s Reynoldstown Chase as I would ideally like to see him have another run to meet that stat considering he is likely to start favourite if I was going to back him. In addition to his big pair, Henderson may also have a third run in Burton Port who entered the fray with an easy winner from possible NH Chase candidate The Sliotar at Southwell making it two out of two over fences for him. Will he run three though? Paul Nicholls was mentioning this race as a target for The Nightingale on Saturday (previously was a toss up between this and the Jewson) but he is another that will have two chase runs at most. Uimhiracethair just got up to force a dead heat at Navan yesterday and needs to improve bundles on that form and he is another with just two chase starts at present.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Having previously written I felt 7/4 could have been the trade of all trades with regards to Master Minded, now I am kicking myself I didn’t get stuck in because, as predicted, he is now odds-on and he looked back to near his best at Newbury. Quite what happened at the last fence is a mystery but his three previous leaps were spectacular and the problem with his rib was clearly holding him back on his previous few starts. Providing he doesn’t have a recurrence of his tying-up problem which tightens the muscles and restricts his training, I can’t see how he can get beaten especially as Walsh will almost certainly ride him now and I do feel he is important to Twist Magic who will now not his services. I think we’ve got a decent bet with Petit Robin (ew) without Master Minded at a big price but I may look for another bet in that market between now and the Festival. I don’t think Oh Crick at 25/1 in this market to each-way stakes with Chandlers is the worst value in the world.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
There was big move last week for Hidden Universe after Dermot Weld said if it came up soft he would represent him rather than Elegant Concorde so he would make a late decision which one runs which is no help for ante-post purposes. What I would say though is that being a four-year-old, Hidden Universe is up against it as they have only won one of the 17 runnings to date. Al Ferof won the bumper at Newbury on Saturday in the colours of John Hales and is now the shortest-priced British runner. Nicholls won that race with Thisthatandtother who then was a fancy for many here afterwards but he never really showed and although Al Ferof was originally ruled out of the race, his owner has had a rethink and he is now set to run. The runner-up Made In Time had been bought by J P McManus earlier in the week on McCoy’s say so and ran well but you don’t win the Champion Bumper off the back of a defeat so he doesn’t look up to it. Gary Moore’s Dragons Roost was the disappointment of the race so his hopes look to now lie purely with Megastar whose Sandown bumper win form was given a boost when Wayward Prince hacked up over hurdles last week. Come on Willie Mullins where are you? We need some real life pumped into this race.

RYANAIR CHASE
There was no disguising the fact that was a disappointing effort from my ante-post each-way bet Voy Por Ustedes in the Game Spirit Chase. I didn’t think he could touch Master Minded over two miles and also felt in my race analysis he could struggle to finish second over that trip but to go out without a fight suggested he has lost his enthusiasm and he needs to rediscover his mojo very quickly now to have a chance of even reaching the frame. The really disappointing aspect was that his jumping looked back to his best until he turned for home. The only smidgeon of hope I have is that he is a spring horse that clearly needs further than 2m1f these days and he has not ever really ran that well in this race either on his previous two cracks at it whereas he loves Cheltenham and he did start to make up some of the lost ground on the run-in. Interestingly though, Alan King wasn’t anywhere near as negative afterwards as I thought he would be just putting it down to the trip but perhaps I am clutching at straws? The vibes I am getting is that appears less likely that Joncol will come over and he will be saved for Punchestown instead and Tartak is now being aimed at the Grand Annual instead so opposition is starting to fall away for Poquelin here. One horse at a big price that is potentially interesting is Master Medic but I have not read or heard anything that suggests this is definitely the plan with him and Scotsirish still half interests me as I feel he is under-rated but whether he runs or not I am not sure especially after his trainer confirmed the weekend winner J’Y Vole as an intended runner so will he run both?

WORLD HURDLE
The Boyne Hurdle has been the best Irish guide to the World Hurdle for many years and I was disappointed that Mourad could not reel in War Of Attrition which means he is now off my radar as a possible outsider to consider for the race. Mourad remains an intended runner but needs to seriously up his game but Mouse Morris had not yet confirmed War Of Attrition as wants to see what weight he gets for the Grand National when the handicap is released on Tuesday before any decisions are made about where he runs next. Ninetieth Minute had no excuses back in third so it is hard to make out a case for him and he looks better over shorter distances. I just wonder if Edward O’Grady may let Jumbo Rio take his chance? It was a good run in the Red Mills Hurdle at the weekend to narrowly go down to Luska Lad at the weights and giving him plenty of start but I imagine they will want to see what mark he gets in the Coral Cup first.

TRIUMPH HURDLE
Our position with Mille Chief and Secant Star was strengthened again after Paul Nicholls broke news that his easy Newbury winner Royal Mix is highly likely to be out for the rest of the season and he was trading as fifth favourite at the time. With Sang Bleu all out to win at Huntingdon, Nicholls also decided he will miss the rest of the season as he just needs more time meaning Advisor is likely to be his number one and his Ascot form has been let down three times since so Ditcheat’s attack on this race has been severely weakened over the last two weeks. Mille Chief missed his intended final prep race at Huntingdon as his scope wasn’t quite right so it is back to the original plan of the Adonis Hurdle in two weeks’ time which is fine by me given what a good Triumph Hurdle guide that race has been with three winners since 1997. Alaivan and Secant Star look set to take each other on in their final prep-races but other than that, unless something comes from left field late on like maybe Sunwise or Super Kenny, then it is hard to see how this market is going to be shaken up much. What I would say is that perhaps as it is looks a weak renewal we may get a bigger field than in usual years as more will fancy taking a chance which is ironic as virtually all firms have now dispensed with the paying out on the fourth concession this year.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
I’ve been giving this race a great deal of thought and I do like Enterprise Park but he is doubly entered (also in the Neptune) and Mullins, as far as I am aware, has yet to confirm him to this race. He looks all stamina so I would say it is odds-on he will go here but it would worry me if the same trainer also ran Quel Esprit here as I get the feeling he rates him as his best novice. Enterprise Park is unbeaten in three starts and won a Grade 2 over 2m6f on testing ground last time out and that form is working out very well as both the second and the third have franked that form winning next time out. That said, Friday usually throws up the best ground of the Festival and he has yet to run on anything other than testing going. I have respect for Tell Massini who is a dual course winner and Cheltenham form has been a big factor in this race so far but he is priced accordingly and Shinrock Paddy won a good trial by 15 lengths so I also respect him. The leading fancy that I wouldn’t consider backing is Restless Harry as it is going to be so hard for him to make all over three miles in what is likely to be a big field. The Betchworth Kid was cut for this race despite finishing third at Kempton last week which may have raised a few eyebrows but the trip was too short and the pace was too slow so he ran well in the circumstances and was finishing best of all. The Bangor winner Silver Kate would not be out of place in the Mares Hurdle but her small yard want to raise her up in trip and she is officially still a novice so they are aiming her at this race.

GOLD CUP
Kauto Star is now odds-on after Denman’s horror show at Newbury but I would argue he probably should have been even before the 2008 Gold Cup winner dumped McCoy at the third last fence where he attempted to take off a stride too early just like he did at Aintree last season. I don’t blame the jockey at all and any calls to replace McCoy should be treated with disdain as the horse just blew it and gave notice he might when getting the previous fence all wrong which would have cost him the race anyway. His jumping up until the home straight was very good but McCoy was disappointed he hadn’t shaken off Niche Market at that point so it could have just been tiredness that caused that mistake four out so he may have been undercooked or just had an off day. The worrying aspect for his Gold Cup claims are that, given those two mistakes, can they risk riding him aggressively again or is he now best when just asked to pop away like when he won the Hennessy. If he pops away then he is going to find it hard to get Kauto Star on the stretch like when he beat him two years ago. Tricky Trickster ended up winning the race but he got lucky as Andrew Glassonbury attempted to make the most of Denman’s mistake four out by kicking on straight away on Niche Market and that ultimately cost him the race as he was nailed on the line much to my chagrin having backed him without Denman. He will finalise his Grand National preparations in the Gold Cup.

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase)
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
* Indicates market limited to not all bookmakers