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A big thank you to Ian for writing the last couple of updates for us and also a big well done for getting the 1-2 last weekend. Let’s hope we can build on that result in the remaining weeks of the season.

BLUE SQUARE GOLD CUP CHASE – Haydock, February 20th 2010

14 runners sadly means we miss out on 1-2-3-4 each way terms but even so looking at the trends I think we should have a decent chance of landing this one.

Bringing all the trends together we are basically looking for either French or Irish bred runner who finished in the first 3 last time out, has an exemplary jumping CV and who has a previous victory at Class 2 level or better. Add into the mix a win over 3m+ and we’re starting to build up the ideal profile

Three horses stand out on the trends but trying to put them in any specific order isn’t easy so I think I’d rate them as equals and list them in racecard order.

SHORTLIST

OUR VIC
DREAM ALLIANCE
LE BEAU BAI

CONCLUSION

OUR VIC – 9-year-olds or older have won six of the last ten renewals so David Pipe’s Irish bred 12-year-old immediately catches the eye. He has winning form over 3m+ and is a previous Grade 2 winner so has both the stamina and class. His jumping record is pretty faultless (just one mishap in 27 chase starts) and although his welter burden will not make life easy you can’t deny his trends performance. Interestingly he was also a winner last time out, something that four of the last five winners also had in common.

DREAM ALLIANCE – The Welsh National has been something of a graveyard race for winners in recent years with just a select bunch going on to win another race after their Chepstow success. Still, Philip Hobbs’ runner looks to have plenty going for him in this event. With his stamina proven and just one unseating over fences he ticks some important boxes. He’s a Grade 3 winner and is also the right age (nine-years-young) and although he’s a homebred animal his stats stack up pretty well overall.

LE BEAU BAI – The final shortlist runner was also a selection on our list for the Welsh National. Sent off favourite that day he ran well considering his inexperience to finish third behind Dream Alliance and having bounced back to winning ways since (admittedly over hurdles) features for us once more. Seven-year-olds have a good record here despite having relatively few runners (2-7-20) and this French bred should be well at home in the forecast conditions. He has winning form over 3m+, is a previous Class 2 winner and has never fallen or unseated in his chase career (ok so he has raced just the six times over fences but even so).

Of the other runners I really like COE but he has only one chase win to his name, and that was a Class 3 event so although he always promises to win something good I can’t really put him forward. He was also outside the first three last time out. OSCAR PARK is similar to Coe in terms of seemingly lacking the class (he has just a Class 3 novice chase to his name over fences) but he did win a Listed event over hurdles so I guess isn’t totally out of it. His light weight will also count for plenty but he has come to grief on two occasions over fences from just sevens outings so that isn’t great.