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Before we get stuck into this week’s copy I thought I would let you know that, if you wanted, you can follow my thoughts live in real-time from all four days of Cheltenham for the first time as I will be sending regular texts throughout the day which will then appear on the Bettrends website the second I send them in much the same way as tweeting for Twitter. All you will need to do to access my free regular updates on racecourse rumours and gossip, paddock reports, general fallout, in fact anything that I feel can be of benefit to your betting throughout the day, all you will need to do is log on to the Bettrends website and then click on ‘Live’ and then you can receive my many regular updates from 10.30 a.m. through to the end of each day. It’s all very simple if you have access to a computer throughout the day.

Also, just a quick note to inform you that the Cheltenham Festival Preview Evenings Reports Service starts this week. If you are unfamiliar with this service, myself and Weatherbys staff attend ten Cheltenham Preview Evenings and report back the relevant comments from the panellists kicking off with the first of the ten from Exeter this week featuring Paul Nicholls, Harry Findlay and David Pipe. This is a separate service so if you want to subscribe please get in touch with Weatherbys. The cost is only £9.95 so less than £1 per preview.

As for this week, I have four bets covering the Arkle Trophy, Champion Hurdle, Mares Hurdle and Champion Bumper.

THIS WEEK’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Sports Line (ew) (Arkle) - Best prices: 14/1 Skybet, Betfred, Bet365, William Hill, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler; 12/1 Totesport, Boylesports, Blue Sq, Stan James, Ladbrokes, Corals
Medermit (Champion Hurdle) – Best Prices: 11/1 William Hill, 10/1 Bet365, Boylesports, Blue Sq, Paddy Power, Ladbrokes
No One Tells Me (ew) (David Nicholson Mares Hurdle) – Best Prices: 20/1 Stan James, Paddy Power; 16/1 Boylesports, Victor Chandler, Bet365
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) (Weatherbys Champion Bumper) – Best Prices: 12/1 Ladbrokes, Totesport, Skybet; 10/1 Bet365, Victor Chandler, Blue Sq, Stan James,

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
I don’t want to take on Dunguib here so am still waiting for at least one forward-thinking bookmaker outside of Betfair to open up a market without the odds-on favourite and then I will look to get involved. Get Me Out Here’s chances of lining up here rather than in a handicap took a turn for the better after the handicapper whacked him up 15lbs for his Totesport Trophy win which means he is now rated 150 – a mark that disappointed Jonjo O’Neill which could suggest they will stick to a novice race rather than run off that mark. That said, they also have the option of the ‘Neptune’ over 2m5f. Given he is officially rated 150, that means he is already good enough to win this race as Go Native was given a mark of 147 when winning this race last season. Oscar Whisky won his final prep race at Sandown very comfortably and I thought it was interesting after the race that Henderson said he had been in touch with Philip Hobbs to make sure that he and Menorah would run in separates trials so they did not have to run their best two-mile novices against each other. Therefore does that mean he rates Oscar Whisky as his main challenger for the ‘Supreme’ and not Bellvano? Speaking of Menorah, as you know I have not been keen on him for this race believing the handicapper over-rated his Kempton victory over Bellvano, and he was beaten at Ascot by Lush Life who I doubt Henderson rates in his top half a dozen novice hurdlers. I didn’t think it was a great ride from Richard Johnson who in my opinion is not the same jockey as a few years ago as he rushed up to join the leader three out and was then was slow in realising he had a challenger on the run-in after he got the last flight wrong and lost his momentum. He just races with the choke out a little too much for me and as far as winning a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is concerned, that was a long way short and horses beaten last time out very rarely win.  Didn’t fancy Menorah for this race before Ascot and I certainly can’t have him on my mind now. I am at Alan King’s stable this morning so it will be interesting what he has to say about Salden Licht as I don’t think he is out of this.

ARKLE TROPHY
No news to report at all this week with no realistic challengers running and with few more opportunities for any horses to come out, the prices are only going to start tightening up so it is time to go in again as our initial interest, Zaarito, wasn’t entered. For the last few weeks I have keenest on Somersby but that was when he was going to have a prep-run and it does niggle at me now he plans to go straight there without another run as all winners going back to the mid-1960s ran in the same calendar year. I still like his chances but that is reflected in odds of 6/1 and the horse who I feel has the most potential to improve and also to see his odds shorten dramatically is SPORTS LINE and I suggest we take the top offer of 14/1 to each-way stakes. Unlike the big Irish pair in the betting, Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe, he has had a run this season and, significantly, it was in the Irish Arkle as the last seven Irish-trained Arkle Trophy winners ran in that race. Ideally I would have liked to have seen him win rather than finish second but he got embroiled in a fight too far out and was caught on the run-in. However, I very much formed the opinion after the race reading between the lines that Willie Mullins expects him to improve significantly for the run and don’t forget that was just his second chase start so he should just progress anyway. I also feel there must be a great chance that Ruby Walsh will ride him rather than Tataniano given he was most disappointing last time in which case, expect him to shorten. My gut feeling is that he will start at a single-figure price on the day so I have taken the 14s to each-way stakes.

CHAMPION HURDLE
Not a good week for Nicky Henderson, firstly he had to endure the defection of Binocular who is out for the season with muscle problems and then witness the defeat of Zaynar at odds of 1-14 and then the Kingwell Hurdle was abandoned meaning Punjabi may have to go to Cheltenham without the benefit of another run. I have not heard anything yet about running it at Kempton next week but it would be nice if ot could be re-arranges as this is not good for our ante-post bet as he is a stuffy horse that needs to race but Henderson did say it was not as important he ran in this season’s Kingwell Hurdle as it was for him to run in the same race last year. As for Zaynar, to be honest I was really disappointed he was beaten because, as you know, I have been against him all season for the Champion Hurdle arguing he doesn’t have the pace for two miles at the top level and felt he was a poor price and now everyone else will belatedly come to the same conclusion meaning I have lost some kind of edge. I know the ground was bad and they will slap cheekpieces on come the day to whizz him up but Zaynar never looked happy with Geraghty having to shake the reins at him three times down the back straight before coming under real pressure in the straight going down to the huge Quewetoo who was having his seasonal debut. I can’t believe he was only pushed out to 8/1 afterwards and he looks an out-and-out stayer to me and reckon he will be trained with the World Hurdle in mind next season if they stay hurdling. The good news for our each-way bet on Punjabi is that has increased the chances of Geraghty staying loyal to him. I want to add a second bet to our portfolio in this race and suggest we support MEDERMIT at a top price of 11/1. I think I may have been guilty of underestimating his Haydock defeat of Punjabi and am very much sensing that the King yard are quietly very sweet on his chances and he is definitely overpriced at a double figure price in a race that, quite simply, is falling apart. On his Supreme Novices’ Hurdle form he should be a very similar price to Go Native who is half his odds and on his Greatwood Hurdle form, he should also be a similar price to Khyber Kim who is shorter than him in the market and more ground dependant. On Haydock form he should be shorter than Punjabi and what I do like about his chance is that he is proven on soft and decent ground, travelled as sweetly as I have ever seen him last time and he just looks to be blooming at the right time. He will also enter the race off the back of a win which statistically has been very important. Gun to the head I am still a Solwhit fan but he looks just about the right price and, looking at the race here and now, for me Medermit is the in-form, progressive, overpriced horse at 11/1 and I have gone in with a win-only bet. Punjabi was each-way as he is consistent so has to run well.    

CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE
The first three in the betting all ran in different races at Punchestown on Wednesday with Garde Champetre and L’Ami finishing last in novice hurdles over inadequate trips and Sizing Australia finishing seventh also in a hurdle race. How they ran is irrelevant of course as all they were doing were blowing the cobwebs away in races connections knew they couldn’t win just to set them up for this race. I have to say I prefer Garde Champetre of the Bolger-McManus pair but Sizing Australia is the one I will look to each-way when more firms go up on the race as we might be able to sneak a better price than he is now as just two firms are betting on the race.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE
I noticed Tom Segal was virtually pleading in his Weekender column for Colm Murphy to change his mind and run Voler La Vedette in the Champion Hurdle as he had put her up for that race in a previous column so it will be interesting to see if that has any effect. One mare not coming over is the Doncaster winner Zarinava who was fifth-favourite in some lists as Jessica Harrington is worried she won’t stay 2m4f. I mentioned the mare I liked for this race last week who hails from the same Harrington yard and feel she is only liable to shorten so I have taken the 20/1 to each-way stakes about NO ONE TELLS ME. She has a chance on her close second to Voler La Vedette at Leopardstown at Christmas when only a four-year-old so can be expected to improve again with more experience and her trainer is convinced she will keep improving and also relish the hill as she is a stayer in the making which should be ideal for this race as I imagine connections of Quevega are going to want to test Voler La Vedette’s stamina from some way out. I thought it was interesting the trainer suggested in an interview this week that she is by far her best chance of a winner at this season’s Festival and she will enjoy soft ground which is good news as Tuesday traditionally offers the softest ground of the week. I know it’s going to be hard to beat Quevega but she has chances of reversing two lengths with Voler La Vedette over this stiffer test than when they met at Leopardstown so offers each-way value at 20/1 and we haven’t seen Quevega since the summer so you never quite know what shape she will be in. No One Tells Me had a run at Punchestown last week which hopefully should have put her spot on for Cheltenham.

NH CHASE
Any Currency has pretty much been favourite ever since Betfair opened up a book on the race and he had his final prep-race at Sandown last week and ran a strange race being outpaced down the back straight on the second circuit before staying on again. That run came after a 70-day layoff so maybe he was a bit rusty but it is not the first time he has had a flat spot and then ran on late and that would worry me a little even over four miles as I can see him doing it again. More interesting to me is The Midnight Club, who I have mentioned in this series before could be an ideal NH Chase horse but he had been disappointing over fences. However he won his beginners’ chase last week looking like a horse that is peaking at the right time and he is all stamina judged on his third in last season’s Albert Bartlett. At present and irrespective of prices, I rate him the most likely winner but we still do not really know what is being aimed at the race and 11/2 on Betfair is shorter than what I would want.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Rite Of Passage passed his test over 2m4f last week, after which, Dermot Weld all but confirmed him for this race rather than taking on Dunguib in the ‘Supreme’. He was long odds-on to win at Punchestown and he didn’t have to come off the bridle and it was also encouraging to see him handle the undulations okay as some felt he didn’t come down the hill at Cheltenham that well last season in the Weatherbys Champion Bumper. I am not sure about that, I just think he has developed very quickly in the last 12 months and is now a proper physical specimen. I did think very hard about whether I should put him up at 7/2 as I rate him as the next superstar in preference to Dunguib and can see him starting shorter than 2/1 on the day if Get Me Out Of Here and Quel Esprit head to other races as, apart from that pair, I can’t see another horse amongst the entries that will beat him as I feel he is that good. Maybe Weld’s decision to probably head to this race will make O’Neill and Mullins think twice about taking him on. One horse most unlikely to take him on is Coole River who beat Quel Esprit last time out as Jessica Harrington rates him too big a baby to come over to Cheltenham and he is over 100/1 on Betfair compared to 16s with the fixed-odds layers. Finian’s Rainbow outclassed his rivals at long odds-on at Ascot to set himself up for a bid. Overall he was pretty good but he did dive at a couple of his hurdles in the first half of the race and, alongside Peddlers Cross (if this is his aim over the ‘Supreme’), then I rate this pair as the best of the home challenge. Although Paul Nicholls said he was favouring this race for Najaf, the prices on Betfair this week suggest the Albert Bartlett may be the race for him as he has been over 100/1.

RSA CHASE
Seriously beware if you fancy Bensalem. Alan King has sussed out this is a really hot year and has stated he will enter him for the William Hill Handicap Chase which is interesting for two reasons in that he won this race with a novice six years ago in Fork Lightning off 136 and two more novices have won this race since then. It is my strong opinion that the handicap route will be his chosen option especially as he would near enough be favourite for the William Hill Trophy and there is also a big bonus for Plumpton winners at the Festival and that is where he won his chase debut. Bensalem is rated 143 and I am sure he rates him in a different league to Fork Lightning so we could easily see him swerve the RSA Chase for the staying handicap on the opening day but he will have to brush up on his jumping as a bad mistake put him on the deck at Haydock and another bad mistake cost him victory over Diamond Harry at Newbury last time out in my opinion. I really am not fancying Diamond Harry. Weird Al’s form just doesn’t look enough following Knockara Beau’s run in the Reynoldstown Chase when second to Burton Port, who himself made hard work of winning at odds-on until the run-in. For me Diablo ran far too well until blundering his chance away at the final fence for this to have been anything other than one of the worst Reynoldstown Chases I’ve seen and Henderson hinted that Burton Port is more likely to be aimed at Aintree than Cheltenham. The disappointing aspect of the race was the non-declaring of Punchestowns who now will head to the RSA Chase off just two chase runs like Diamond Harry and Uimhiraceathair unlike the last ten winners that had three or more runs.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
Forpadydeplasterer is now back in the picture after his trainer ruled him out of the Festival two weeks ago with lameness. To be frank I hope he comes over and gets stuffed as long as nothing untoward happens to the horse as this is not the way to do things at all. Very amateurish indeed and, as such, I took him out of individual horse analysies in the Guide after Tommy Cooper’s comments (he is clearly well named) just as bookmakers took him out of their list! If he does line up which now looks likely, the last 11 Arkle winners to run here the next season have been placed at worst but to win a championship race surely a horse has to have a trouble-free preparation so he wouldn’t be for me and, besides, Kalahari King really should have won the Arkle anyway. As for Kalahari King, Ferdy Murphy commented this week he may not improve all that much on his Doncaster win as he commented that the state of his fitness surprised him and clearly his work on Redcar beach had him fitter than he realised. It looks like McCoy will either ride Petit Robin or Big Zeb. Both horses are Geraghty’s ride so I imagine McCoy will ride whichever Geraghty doesn’t as he hasn’t got a mount in the race at the moment and Henderson and Murphy both like using him when he is available. At least Petit Robin has now been definitely confirmed for this race having been taken out of the Ryanair Chase at last week’s forfeit stage. Oh Crick may not have stayed 2m5f at the weekend behind Monet’s Garden but I was disappointed with his jumping so have knocked any notions on the head of taking a chance on him in a market without Master Minded at a big price.

FRED WINTER NOVICES’ HURDLE
A very interesting contender emerged for this race last week when Jonjo O’Neill’s Open Day won the juvenile hurdle at Sandown. Already there are plenty of strong trends for the Fred Winter despite its short existence, and the last three winners of this race had all won at Sandown which I like as it is staying track over hurdles with a stiff uphill finish just like Cheltenham. Owned by J P McManus, I don’t doubt he will be to the fore in the market for that race. I would imagine that Diktalina will also now head here rather than the Triumph Hurdle as she was easily put in her place by Me Voici at Haydock and she would also interest me as she won at Sandown on her previous run and mares have won two of the five runnings to date with the 7lbs allowance. 

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER
I wondered where the Willie Mullins horses were and, significantly, DAY OF A LIFETIME was very well backed ahead of his debut at Fairyhouse from 4/5 into 4/11 and he justified that support to win by 5½ lengths showing what I felt was tremendous change of gear. Five of Mullins’ six Festival bumper winners had one just one run and were five-year-olds and Day Of A Lifetime fits both profiles. I would say that alongside Hidden Universe, that was the most impressive performance I have seen from a bumper horse this season and I can only see one way in the betting he is going especially as Dermot Weld, who has the two ante-post favourites, has said only one of Elegant Concorde or Hidden Universe in the same ownership will run. I have therefore backed Day Of A Lifetime at the top offer of 12/1 and I rather hope Weld does run Hidden Universe rather than Elegant Concorde as he is a four-year-old and they have only ever won this race once. Araucaria, Tavern Times and Sizing Mexico are fancied by many for this race but all three were due to run at Naas at the weekend which was abandoned which can’t have helped their chances.  

PERTEMPS FINAL
The final qualifier took place at Haydock at the weekend and was won two years ago by Ballyfitz who went on to win the Final and we had an impressive winner here in Fredo. I received some late info on him during the morning of that race telling me he was well fancied as they needed him to win well to attain a handicap mark to get into the Final and that info must have got out as he was sent off favourite and won by nine lengths so he is very much on my shortlist for this race when the weights are released as last time out winners have a great record in the Festival handicap hurdles. The only other horse I would look at for the Final that ran in that Haydock qualifier was Jonjo O’Neill’s Al Co who was weak in the betting but caught the eye finishing fifth having travelled well until a bad mistake three out and this is a race at the Festival which O’Neill has won on three occasions.

RYANAIR CHASE
Tranquil Sea was due to have his final prep race at Naas on Sunday which was abandoned so it will be interesting to see if they try and squeeze another run into him. Planet Of Sound had a far from ideal prep when taking a crashing fall early on in the Ascot Chase and I know from my stats just how hard it is to win at the Festival directly off the back of a fall. That part of his game has been a problem as a bad mistake cost him the Amlin Chase back in November and a poor first-fence jump shuffled him back to rear in last season’s Arkle Trophy so it was always an uphill task from then. As such, I really can’t him for the Ryanair. Monet’s Garden won the race for the second time but looks like waiting for the Melling Chase at Aintree but the runner-up Albertas Run looks like taking his chance but if he couldn’t beat a near bus-pass boy in Monet’s Garden then I can’t really have him on my mind here. Maybe I was a bit too downbeat on Voy Por Ustedes last week? Alan King reiterated he wasn’t that fussed with his Game Spirit Chase run, in fact, like me, he was pleased with the way he was jumping and travelling until turning for home and then just felt he was swamped for speed and it’s all systems go for the Ryanair. I also recorded the Weatherbys/William Hill CD on Monday (£5.95 from all good bookshops….namely Weatherbys only!) in which one of the pundit was paddock judge Ken Pitterson whose opinions in this area I have time for and he told me the horse wasn’t fit either so that 16/1 now is starting to look on the big side again especially after hearing it confirmed that Joncol definitely doesn’t travel over as I has suspected as I had him down as a player if he did travel over.

WORLD HURDLE
Mouse Morris was so disgusted with War Of Attrition’s weight for the Grand National (all of 11st 1lb for a previous Gold Cup winner that has won pattern races over hurdles on his last two starts) that he has said he won’t run so it will be the World Hurdle. After he has calmed down, it wouldn’t surprise me if they did still go to Aintree but it does now appear that he will take his chance here first and then they will decide. At the end of the day, War Of Attrition has no chance of winning the World Hurdle but he could win a Grand National so I hope common sense prevails and he does go to Aintree. The Rendlesham Hurdle used to be an excellent guide but not of late and I can’t believe this season’s renewal in which Souffleur beat Kayf Aramis and Bouggler will have any effect at all on proceedings at Cheltenham.

TRIUMPH HURDLE
I have to say I was impressed with Alaivan’s 17 lengths’ win on Saturday and he worries me for our bets on Mille Chief and Secant Star. Held up on this occasion rather than making it when appearing to run too freely when easily beaten by Carlito Brigante at Leopardstown, I did feel he benefited from an overly-strong pace up front but he did look classy, as he should being rated 109 on the Flat which makes him by far the best Flat horse in this season’s Triumph Hurdle. Me Voici was the top rated juvenile in training rated 140 before winning the Victor Ludorum Hurdle at the weekend but whether he runs will depend on the ground. Ruled out of the Triumph after winning the Grade 1 at Chepstow on Welsh National day, there had been rumblings he may turn up at Cheltenham but connections argued after his easy Haydock win that he is still a big weak horse with a high knee action so is it a sensible thing to muck him up on faster ground for one race when he has his whole future in front of him? I did also find it interesting they felt he improved on his Chepstow win as he was “only half-fit” for that but he had a clear run before this race. It would have be soft ground for them to even consider a crack and that hasn’t been the case on the final day at the Festival for a long time. Olofi has been confirmed for this race rather than the Fred Winter which strikes me as bonkers as he is plainly not ready for the Triumph at this stage of his career.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
Wymott was cut after taking the scalps of Wayward Prince and Adams Island at Haydock but I would be surprised if that race has a bearing on this race. Until I know where Quel Esprit is running I am struggling to have a strong view on the race except that of the leading fancies I don’t fancy Restless Harry.

GOLD CUP
I would be amazed now if Notre Pere travelled over after a disappointing run in the Bobbyjo Chase which he should have won comfortably on official figures but he didn’t jump well and looked booked for only third when finally getting rid of Andrew Lynch at the final fence. Paul Nicholls once again reiterated he will run five horses in the race, in other words meaning that What A Friend is not an intended runner as Tricky Trickster, Taranis and My Will are confirmed as joining Kauto Star and Denman. Regards Denman, paddock judge Ken Pitterson told me he just wasn’t fit at Newbury which explains why he couldn’t shake off Niche Market and led to his early tiring which led to those two mistakes. It appears likely he will wear some kind of concentration aid whether it be a noseband, blinkers or cheekpieces and I thought it was interesting the “lairy” label came out again as that was how Walsh described him before he was beaten in what is now the ‘Neptune’. Two more unlikely to run are Money Trix after Nicky Richards ruled him out and David Pipe seemed cold on running Madison Du Berlais favouring keeping him to flat tracks with the Racing Post Chase on Saturday followed by Aintree swerving Cheltenham altogether which seems sensible given his appalling record at the track. In other news, Paul Townend has been confirmed as Cooldine’s jockey and he has won on him over fences before last season at Thurles.

FOXHUNTERS’ CHASE
No one is betting on this race except Betfair for peanuts right now which is a shame as I have a strong fancy having gone through the race over the last few days. I will keep its name under my hat for now as I don’t want to alert any bookmakers to who it before prices are released but don’t too get excited as he will be one of the market leaders though I suspect he will be available at double the odds that I feel his true price should be when the prices start to filter through.

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy)
Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1 (Arkle Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Medermit @ 11/1 (Champion Hurdle)
No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1 (Mares Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase)
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase)
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Bumper)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
* Indicates market limited to not all bookmakers