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Saturday, February 27^th

Be sure to log in at 1.00 on Monday as I am fancying a few for the handicaps and there are enough bookmakers betting on them before the weights are out on Wednesday so I will be getting involved. The Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide returns from the printers this afternoon so some will be despatched today with the remainder sent out on Monday.

1.00 KEMPTON
I’m delighted to see a replacement race has been found for Punjabi after the Kingwell Hurdle was lost last week for the purposes of my each-way Champion Hurdle bet on him and, if he wins well here, I can see him going off around 6/1 on the day which would be half the odds I advised him at plus, of course, he was pushed out to as big as 16s after his Haydock defeat by Medermit which I have a feeling will look like very good form in a couple of weeks’ time. The question about today, however, is just how much will Punjabi need the run as he is sure to be not at concert pitch? Then again, the Champion Hurdle is just over two weeks away so he is not going to be that far away from full fitness either. He’s not a betting proposition as the opposition is weaker than what was planned for the Kingwell Hurdle last week when I fancied Starluck to beat him at Wincanton so he will start a warm order for sure with Blue Bajan seemingly his only serious rival and, as Andy Turnell’s horse is basically below top class, I will be disappointed if Punjabi doesn’t enhance his Champion Hurdle claims but I wouldn’t be fussed if he won in workmanlike fashion as there will be more to come for sure.

1.30 KEMPTON
Wolf Moon is one of four or five horses I have on my mind for the Pertemps Final so it will be interesting to see how he fares here. Given the trainer let down the NH Chase favourite Any Currency after being in great form earlier in the season and he needed his comeback run last week, I just wonder if it will be a similar scenario for Wolf Moon today following two months off the track. Paul Nicholls has the Festival in mind for River D’Or so he is another to watch closely so I am most drawn to Cabinet Minister who won two weeks ago and few of these have been in any sort of form at all lately. Trained by Warren Greatrex, who has impressed me this season, he is still a novice so is open to plenty more improvement on just the seventh start of his life and he won on his handicap debut last time over 2m1f and the step up in trip can help keep him ahead of the handicapper.

2.00 KEMPTON
I was down at Alan King’s on Monday and he said that Salden Licht will run here with a view to running in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle or the County Hurdle. Today is the final day for horses to get in a third run to qualify for any handicap at the Festival hence why he was keen to run him but I did form the impression he genuinely feels he can develop into a live ‘Supreme’ hope so, if that is the case, he will have to be winning here. Impressive on his hurdling debut at Newbury, he wasn’t so impressive when scrambling home next time at Plumpton but King feels the Newbury win was the real Salden Licht but the runner-up at Plumpton franked that form with a good second in a warm novice hurdle at Huntingdon yesterday and may even have won had he not got the last flight all wrong. I think he will win.

2.05 NAVAN
This Grade 2 novice hurdle has been saved from last week but not with quite as good a cast lined up. Go Native took it last year before winning the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle which was interesting as the last time a Festival winner won it was back in the 1970s when it was the major Irish trial as three Supreme winners won it. Pittoni is my idea of the winner ahead of a probable Triumph Hurdle bid as I think it’s interesting they want to take on older horses and I did like the way he quickened up to win at Leopardstown last time in a weak Grade 1. Coole River will do well to give him 12lbs in my opinion even if he did lower Quel Esprit’s colours last time out.

2.15 NEWCASTLE
The Reveley family have always fared well with mares and maybe Diklers Oscar can develop into a decent type for them. Twice a bumper winner which takes some doing, it has taken a while for the penny to drop in novice hurdles with her but, two runs ago she ran into a good one in Bygones Of Brid over too long a trip (2m6f) before easily winning a maiden hurdle over course and distance (2m) last time out. Therefore I find her the most interesting contender here, especially on her handicap debut taking on what look a mainly exposed lot. Rayshan has been most consistent in point-to-points but has been off the track for 300 days which is a big worry for a small yard and Best Prospect, who was successful on his last start and is going the right way, has also not run for a long time (185 days since his last Flat run) which is offputting on heavy ground that will find out any fitness worries. Calatagan is returning to hurdles off 122 (rated 134 over fences) so should be a player but he formerly was never a big fan of testing ground and has been well beaten off similar hurdling marks and is just not as good a hurdler as chaser. Who knows what Howard Johnson is up to with Astarador so the main threat has to be the hat-trick chasing top weight Open De L’Isle but, on this ground, I would take Diklers Oscar in receipt of 10lbs with winning, recent course-and-distance form on her side.
 
2.30 KEMPTON
Paul Nicholls has been mulling over whether to send The Nightingale for the Jewson or the RSA Chase which suggests he fancies him to win this Grade 2 event. A horse that had excuses for his final two runs over hurdles last season finishing distressed on both occasions, he impressed me on his chase debut over 2m2f, especially as he needs further, and there will be some disappointed faces at Ditcheat if he can not book himself into the Festival here. If it is to be the Jewson, he wouldn’t want to be winning this by very far though. Red Admiral is a good ground horse so this ground is far from ideal, Mount Oscar is an 11-year-old novice, Othermix’s reputation since coming from France has been far higher than his achievements and Henderson would have at least half a dozen superior novices at home to Viking Rebel so this really should go to the favourite.

3.05 KEMPTON
The late news is that Miss Mitch is out lame. As mentioned on Wednesday, I think the market has got this just about right so I am struggling to find an angle. Nacarat for me is the one to beat as he runs the track so well which is big feature of previous winners of this race, as is the record of the classier horses with just one of the last ten not carrying 11st+ and Tom George feels his run in the King George, where he was fourth but shaped like the second best horse for the most part, has brought him on which I can believe given he is a big stuffy horse. With McCoy back in the plate like when they routed the field by nine lengths in this race last season, I feel an 11lbs rise may not stop him and he is the one I would back given a free bet. Having been beaten so many times off lower marks, I am not especially keen to back Fistral Beach at around 6/1 from a higher mark and 4lbs wrong at the weights. It could be that I have underestimated his rate of improvement and I have heard the yard really fancy him as he has never been better but others appeal more. They include Kilcrea Castle who ran so well in a good Ascot handicap last time out and the winner has franked that form but he has not been missed having been well backed over the last week. I think that he is the biggest danger to Nacarat. I see they have gone with first-time blinkers for Madison Du Berlais which rather confirms my view he is becoming increasingly quirky and that could make the difference as he is another that loves the track. All in all, I think that Nacarat is the best percentage call but his price looks about right. 

3.20 NEWCASTLE
The Eider Chase will be run over 4m1f on heavy ground so we want low weights, right? What may surprise you however (and it certainly surprised me) for a marathon chase is how well the classier horses have fared recently, so much so, the last seven winners all carried over 11st so my usual default position of looking from the bottom weight upwards in this races has been turned on its head. Merigo has 11st 2lbs and deserves to be favourite off just a 5lbs higher mark than winning last year (and a 1lb higher weight) when the first two pulled 37 lengths of the rest on equally heavy ground. On that basis, 5lbs means nothing, it’s all about handling this extreme test of stamina and we know he can do it. The runner-up last year, Morgan Be, takes him on again on 3lbs better terms for half a length so there is nothing in it really and he looked all over the winner 12 months ago until caught close home. You can bet your life that both horses have just been trained with this race in mind and I could easily envisage another 1-2 even though Morgan Be’s two runs this season have not exactly screamed out he is in top form but I suspect they were just preps for this handicap. Merigo, on the other hand, showed his wellbeing last time out finishing second at Warwick (disqualified and placed last) so he would be my pick of the two. Of the remainder, there has been good money this week for Nick Williams’ Dom D’Orgeval purely off the back of his trainer’s reputation in these races and I can see why having his first run for his new stable having lost his way with David Pipe. He looks the dangerous lurker and worthy of a small saver whatever your interest. Boris The Blade did us a big favour a month ago having been available at 20/1 in the morning and this should be his kind of race as all he does is stay. He will probably trade longer in running as he is lazy and needs rousting along but is one to consider in-running for a place. He has just snook in at 10st 1lb which goes against race trends but I can’t help having another go on him after a circuit when the first shakes of the reins of him will doubtless be in evidence and he starts to drift on Betfair. In summary, I think Merigo is the most likely winner, Dom D’Orgeval is a dangerous floater so worth a small saver and Boris The Blade is an in-running win-and-place bet when he first starts to need rousting along. 

3.40 KEMPTON
Having supported Mille Chief for the Triumph Hurdle at 10/1, nothing other than a good win will suffice here and I hope he jumps as well as last time when he was super-fast over his obstacles and displays the gears that Alan King tells us he has. He certainly took to the course well in December beating Westlin’ Winds despite not being fit (though he was receiving weight) but was much better time at Huntingdon with that run under his belt. I felt it was significant that on Monday King stated: “He is as good as my other Triumph Hurdle winners, if not better”. If he is better than Katchit who won the Triumph Hurdle by nine lengths then he is going to win this race and the Triumph Hurdle but, of course, he now has to back up his trainer’s very high opinion of him. Soldatino is the interesting one as he is unraced over hurdles but Henderson often runs his best juvenile in this trial and he prefers to run him to Super Kenny who is also unraced and had a five-day entry as is as low as 16/1 in the Triumph Hurdle betting. Obviously it’s a big guessing game with him so Ultimate is the form horse to worry about. In fact, Ultimate is the form horse full stop as he ran Carlito Brigante to six lengths last time out so his running should give a good indication of where Mille Chief stands with Carlito Brigante as far as Cheltenham is concerned.

4.10 KEMPTON
The gutsy Noun De La Thinte is out again. The winner of five races on the spin in December and January, it would appear that the handicapper has got her measure having finished second the last twice but I know the owners (through the trainer) feel she is still handicapped to win again off 120 (they put her in the Kim Muir this week) and this is a jumper’s track and that part of her game is top drawer so I would not put it beyond her recording a sixth win of the season as there are not too many progressive horses taking her on here.

Sunday, February 27^th
 
3.00 FONTWELL
I have to say I was most disappointed with Herecomesthetruth’s Ascot run last weekend so am surprised he is out again so quickly and at Fontwell as he is a quirky type so whether he will take to this figure-of-eight track I don’t know. It may turn him on. He will be a skinny price as he is a stone clear of his rivals and will probably win but he wouldn’t be one I would lump on at a tight price.

3.15 LEOPARDSTOWN
Just a quick note that my Grand National fancy Arbor Supreme runs here. The trip of 2m5f is too sharp and the ground is likely to be softer than ideal so he is not winning I would imagine but I will be watching him closely.

3.35 FONTWELL
The National Spirit Hurdle has attracted a decent field including Lough Derg who has won the last two runnings but he went out like a light in the Cleeve Hurdle and Rendlesham Hurdle on his last two starts so he wouldn’t be for me. I like Quozak here who was disappointing last time in a big handicap but that run only came only two days after hacking up by ten lengths (most unlike Nicholls to run him again so soon and it backfired) and if he is back to that kind of form, he would be of big interest.

3.50 LEOPARDSTOWN
Two good novices in Citizen Vic and Major Finnegan cross swords and although the latter has been running well in defeat behind three decent novices since beating Jered, Citizen Vic should be hard to beat having made all to beat Weapon’s Amnesty in a Grade 1 last time out. After the race Mullins said he is improving fast so the likelihood is he can improve again and prove too good for Major Finnegan.

4.20 LEOPARDSTOWN
This Grade 2 race has been saved from last week and now includes Aran Concerto but he has been so disappointing this season it is hard to see him giving Tranquil Sea too much of a fight. O’Grady initially said that Tranquil Sea would head straight to the Ryanair Chase after this race was lost last week so he has obviously had a rethink and wants to get a run into him which suggests he won’t be spot on but he has the class to deal with these if close to his best and the extra furlong here compared to 2m last week could make all the difference as he is essentially a stayer and has the Gold Cup on his agenda next season. He should win.

4.50 LEOPARDSTOWN
Araucaria and Sizing Mexico could head to the Festival Bumper if winning here. They were due to meet last week until it was abandoned as was Tavern Times but the latter is missing this time and looks like heading straight to Cheltenham. The more testing the race, the better Araucaria’s chance.