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We were denied a decent priced winner with Our Vic last time thanks to a real impressive performance from Silver By Nature. Soft ground is clearly ideal for this chap and he looks an emerging talent when conditions are in his favour.

RACING POST CHASE – Kempton, February 27th 2010

We have some strong trends concerning this event but a quick look at the field tells us that arguably the most important trends are split between various runners.

The betting is the strongest pointer here with all the last ten winners coming from the first six in the betting. There seems little reason to question this and so that’s the place to start this year. Favourite NACARAT leads FISTRAL BEACH, KILCREA CASTLE, MADISON DU BERLAIS, OEDIPE and ATOUCHBETWEENACARA.

A victory last time out features on the profile of nine of the last ten winners and this year just PIRAYA and FISTRAL BEACH were successful on their most recent start. The last three winners were all eight-year-olds and KILCREA CASTLE, RAZOR ROYALE and OEDIPE are the only ones of that age group in the line-up – as you can see these two strong trends do not produce one outstanding candidate.

Nine of the last ten were previous winners at Class 2 level or better and interestingly FISTRAL BEACH misses out here, along with LE BURF.

Weight is an important factor here with eight of the last ten carrying more than 11st to victory. Only two horses are set to carry more than this benchmark at Kempton tomorrow, MADISON DU BERLAIS and NACARAT.

SHORTLIST

NACARAT
MADISON DU BERLAIS
(OEDIPE)
(ATOUCHBETWEENACARA)

CONCLUSION

NACARAT bids to become the first horse since Docklands Express in 1991 / 1992 to land back-to-back renewals of this famous race. He is the top trends performer seeing as he’s the current favourite, a previous Class 2 winner and is set to carry 11st+. Add into the mix he is a previous Grade 3 winner (thanks to this race last year) and he looks a strong contender. Although he wasn’t successful last time out he was 4th in the King George so we can forgive him that and he has that touch of class that can see him go close in what looks a pretty ‘average’ renewal.

Another with the definite class for this is MADISON DU BERLAIS. Set to carry 11st 12lbs he certainly hits that trend and as the current 4th favourite his market position is also perfect. He is a dual Grade 2 winner so easily hits the ‘Class 2 winner’ trend and although he was also not a winner last time out his 4th place finish in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham (a course he blatantly dislikes) is perfectly acceptable.

After these two runners we have something of a mixed bag and I’m tempted to just put up those two. However both ATOUCHBETWEENACARA and OEDIPE aren’t without hope here. Both fill a top 6 berth in the betting and both are previous Class 2 winners. The former is actually a Grade 2 winner while the latter is the ideal age for this, being eight-years-old. In truth FISTRAL BEACH isn’t too far behind without being outstanding on the trends, a comment that also applies to KILCREA CASTLE.