bettrends.co.uk

Saturday 27th February

Kempton 1.00
You would like to think this would represent a fairly straightforward task for the defending Champion Hurdle hero PUNJABI. As a result I’m not going to get many prizes for putting him forward as a bet and with realistic challengers pretty thin on the ground this looks a race to avoid for betting purposes.

Kempton 1.30
A tough handicap hurdle to try and solve. WOLF MOON is probably the strongest contender having won four and his last six starts and this trip on soft ground will hold no fears for him. His 4lb rise for his latest success at Cheltenham seems justified and he should go well with just seven career starts under his belt. River D’Or is interesting for Paul Nicholls while Clova Island proved his stamina for this distance with a fourth place finish over course and distance last time out, ahead of Sangfroid who was a place further back. Cabinet Minster is another lightly raced individual who will no doubt go on to be better than his current rating of 127.
WOLF MOON

Kempton 2.00
Ghimaar and Escort’men are very interesting runners with the former making his hurdles debut today and the latter basically doing the same after his race ended at the first hurdle on his debut last month. Irish raider Grey Soldier will help give us an idea of the relative merits of the Irish novices but this looks tough under 11st 9lb. Baring all this in mind Alan King’s SALDEN LICHT may just be the best bet. Considered a live Supreme Novice hope by the stable if those dreams are to be realised then he really needs to be winning this.
SALDEN LICHT

Kempton 2.30
THE NIGHTINGALE is a horse I think plenty of and Paul Nicholls’ runner looks the one to beat here. He is actually rated 2lb superior to the next best horses in the race (Red Admiral and Mount Oscar) so the fact he gets 7lb from those runners means he should be tough to beat. He was very impressive winning on his chase debut at Fontwell and he should be able to handle this step up in class.
THE NIGHTINGALE

Kempton 3.05
The betting is the strongest pointer here with all the last ten winners coming from the first six in the betting. There seems little reason to question this and so that’s the place to start this year. Favourite NACARAT leads FISTRAL BEACH, KILCREA CASTLE, MADISON DU BERLAIS, OEDIPE and ATOUCHBETWEENACARA. A victory last time out features on the profile of nine of the last ten winners and this year just PIRAYA and FISTRAL BEACH were successful on their most recent start. The last three winners were all eight-year-olds and KILCREA CASTLE, RAZOR ROYALE and OEDIPE are the only ones of that age group in the line-up – as you can see these two strong trends do not produce one outstanding candidate. Nine of the last ten were previous winners at Class 2 level or better and interestingly FISTRAL BEACH misses out here, along with LE BURF. Weight is an important factor here with eight of the last ten carrying more than 11st to victory. Only two horses are set to carry more than this benchmark at Kempton tomorrow, MADISON DU BERLAIS and NACARAT.

NACARAT bids to become the first horse since Docklands Express in 1991 / 1992 to land back-to-back renewals of this famous race. He is the top trends performer seeing as he’s the current favourite, a previous Class 2 winner and is set to carry 11st+. Add into the mix he is a previous Grade 3 winner (thanks to this race last year) and he looks a strong contender. Although he wasn’t successful last time out he was 4th in the King George so we can forgive him that and he has that touch of class that can see him go close in what looks a pretty ‘average’ renewal. Another with the definite class for this is MADISON DU BERLAIS. Set to carry 11st 12lbs he certainly hits that trend and as the current 4th favourite his market position is also perfect. He is a dual Grade 2 winner so easily hits the ‘Class 2 winner’ trend and although he was also not a winner last time out his 4th place finish in a Grade 2 at Cheltenham (a course he blatantly dislikes) is perfectly acceptable. After these two runners we have something of a mixed bag and I’m tempted to just put up those two. However both ATOUCHBETWEENACARA and OEDIPE aren’t without hope here. Both fill a top 6 berth in the betting and both are previous Class 2 winners. The former is actually a Grade 2 winner while the latter is the ideal age for this, being eight-years-old. In truth FISTRAL BEACH isn’t too far behind without being outstanding on the trends, a comment that also applies to KILCREA CASTLE.
NACARAT
MADISON DU BERLAIS
(OEDIPE)
(ATOUCHBETWEENACARA)

Kempton 4.20
With MILLE CHIEF a best priced 5/1 for the Triumph Hurdle you’d have to think he’d win this with something to spare. He is actually rated just 2lb superior to Ultimate on official ratings and so on the face of it Brian Ellison’s runner is the best treated horse in the race in receipt of 3lb. However, Alan King’s runner is clearly the one to be on here as he looks to cement his positon as the best juvenile hurdler of the season.
MILLE CHIEF

Kempton 4.10
Noun De La Thinte holds three entries for races at the Festival and so there is perhaps room for manoeuvre from her current mark of 120. She has won five of her last seven starts so is clearly in great heart and it’s hard to see her out of the frame. That said, I’m willing to take a chance on SOIXANTE. He is prone to the odd mistake which isn’t ideal round somewhere like Kempton but he shaped far more encouragingly on his last outing at Wincanton and a further drop in the handicap can only be of benefit to him. He has some decent form as a novice last term (including beating Oh Crick) and so I think he could be interesting. With his jumping being slightly problematic it could be worth backing him e/w just in case he blows a winning opportunity!
SOIXANTE e/w

Kempton 4.45
I’m not going to lie to you; I’m not a huge fan of betting on bumpers! Awesome Freddie and De Forgotten Man lead the list of contenders after victories last time out. That said, carrying penalties in this sphere is never easy and so newcomers MORCAMBE and BALLAGIO may be better alternatives. I’m finding it hard to split them though and the betting will probably provide us with the best idea about what we should expect. I’d like to have both on my side though!
MORCAMBE
BALLAGIO

Sunday 28th February

Fontwell 2.30
TAKE THE BREEZE should find these easier than his last two assignments (when beaten in Grade 1 company and then defeated by Long Run). Soft ground is of vital importance to him and so with conditions seemingly in his favour he is the one to beat, despite being saddled with top weight.
TAKE THE BREEZE

Fontwell 3.00
HERECOMESTHETRUTH was rather flat last week at Ascot so whether I’d want to trust him off top weight in boggy ground is questionable. He has plenty of class on his day and this field looks his for the taking so I guess it all depends what sort of price he is.
HERECOMESTHETRUTH

Fontwell 3.35
I like Souffleur but this might come a bit too soon after Haydock last week so he is overlooked while Sway is very interesting on his first run in Britain and the market will probably be the best guide to his chances. Qozak was turned out quickly at Ascot after winning at Taunton on his penultimate start and while he was well beaten that day it is probably best to ignore that run. He looks a leading player here but then so does TRENCHANT. Alan King suggested that if the blinkers have the desired effect then he could prove interesting and I’m of that same opinion. There isn’t much between the lot of these on official ratings and so if the headgear works he should get involved.
TRENCHANT

Leopardstown 4.20
Aran Concerto off top weight? Not for me and so TRANQUIL SEA looks the best option. This should book his ticket as near favourite for the Ryanair at the Festival and although he won’t be knocked about to win this he should prove too good for this field. BALLYHOLLAND has been well backed for Grand National success and so you’d have to say 2m 1f will be on the short side for him. That said conditions will make this a test and he was successful over 2m over hurdles last time out. I’d have him e/w.
TRANQUIL SEA
BALLYHOLLAND e/w