Hunter Chase Betting Service

Thu, Mar 4, 2010

Ludlow – Thursday, March 4th

FUNDAMENTALIST – Smart sub-3m hurdler and chaser who won at the Cheltenham Festival six years ago, but despite remaining generally consistent has only won three times since those heady days, one of those wins being a veterans event at Aintree in ’08, his first Rules success over 3m+. Has a poor record fresh but disappointing still that he made no show whatsoever behind Chesnut Annie at Ffos Las last time; should be fitter today and ground will suit but has questions to answer now.

OFAREL D’AIRY – Classy Hunter Chaser who won his three completed starts in ’09, with his two reversals coming in the Foxhunters (made mistakes and never got into a rhythm) and at Stratford (in the lead when unseating). Very useful form otherwise and showed he is adept at carrying big weights in a handicap at Newton Abbot, but often prone to blunders, as he showed when shooting Ollie Greenall out of the saddle at Huntingdon. If he gets into a rhythm he will be very hard to beat but he’s never one to confidently back at short odds.

TEMPLER – Eight time NH winner and was in good nick last autumn, winning handicap hurdles at Exeter and Cheltenham, a few months after his last chasing success at Stratford. Needs decent ground to be effective over this trip so any sign of conditions deteriorating would be a concern, but has very little to find at the weights with the best of these and should put up a bold show for his smart amateur partner.

GREY KID – Ultra-game but very onepaced these days; achieved a career best when landing a Hereford Hunter Chase last season but that was a messy race that fell into his lap. Ran poorly on his comeback and was then 33/1 and unseated early in a hot contest at Ffos Las. The good ground and the easy, right-handed track will suit but realistically only has place claims on his best form.

MARTHA’S KINSMAN – Thorough stayer who has won twice here on good or faster ground, but suffered with an inflated handicap mark after winning twice in early 2007, although he was still able to produce the odd decent effort in defeat subsequently. Interesting that connections have kept the faith and on ratings he wouldn’t be without a chance in conditions we know he will love; has won after a long absence in the past.

REAL DEFINITION – Lost his form completely after winning an Intermediate in early ’08 and disappeared after finishing last at Eyton in the May of that year. Has stones to find with the best of these and can only be watched.

VON ORIGNY – Untrustworthy but a fairly regular winner but was well beaten in his two forays into Hunter Chasing last season, including when 26L second to Border Fusion at Bangor. Up against some classy sorts here and would need a few of those to suffer a mishap if he is to have any chance. Ignore the RP spotlight comment about Oliver Greenall though, as he rode the horse when it was owned by his father (changed hands at the end of ’08).

Conclusion – Ofarel d’Airy has an outstanding chance on his best form, but taking short odds on something that can often make blunders is a risky business. Fundamentalist has to prove his well-being, so it may be worth looking at the two other Rules exports, namely Templar and Martha’s Kinsman, who were very similarly rated. The former was in better form when last seen but the latter loves it around here and a bold show at a much bigger price than the Hobbs contender wouldn’t be a surprise.

Taunton – Thursday, March 4th

ARMOURY HOUSE – Decent sub-three miler at his best and won a weakish Hunter Chase at Towcester last season over 2m6f. Decent enough effort behind subsequent Hunter Chase winner Cowboyboots on his comeback (weakened late on) but well held on his return to this grade next time, and the combination of trip and ground today may well see him floundering late on.

MUSTANGSALLYRALLY – Infrequent winner in Ireland but fairly consistent and particularly suited by testing ground. Has made a fine start to his Pointing career, finishing third to a pair of likely Foxhunters types at Larkhill before finishing a fine second in a blanket finish to the Coronation Gold Cup at the same track. Leading claims on that form and looks the one to beat in this company despite having to concede weight all round.

SPANCHIL HILL – Ended up in a seller last year and recent efforts in Opens suggests that he’ll be a backmarker in this company; often gives the impression of being ungenuine.

NOBODY TELLS ME – Course and distance winner last year in a weaker event (won two Opens subsequently), but a long way behind Mustangsallyrally in the Coronation Cup on his second start this season and suffered a very heavy fall here next time. Wellbeing has to be in doubt after that experience but he has something to find on form in any case. Ground will suit.

DUTCH BILL – Wins in Points have only come in minor company and despite a fair third on his comeback at Great Trethew seems to have plenty to find in this event. Will get plenty of unorthodox encouragement from the saddle and the ground should suit, but can’t be seriously fancied.

McSOLO – Decent enough when allowed to dominate on goodish ground but also inclined to throw in the odd stinker, as he did when producing a pathetic effort at Towcester last season; gradually returning to peak form in Points and has an overall form chance at the weights, but conditions may not be ideal and has more negatives than positives against his name in this company.

RASH MOVE – Beat some useful rivals when going through ’08 unbeaten but missed the following campaign, a season in which the yard was generally under a cloud. Certainly has the talent to make his mark in this sort of grade, even though his stamina for this test isn’t totally proven, and showed that some of the old ability was still there when running well for a long way at Market Rasen. Still has plenty to prove though, and this is a tough race to bounce back in.

SHERIFF ROSCOE – Lightly raced dual Chasing winner (disqualified once) but out of form when last seen under Rules; matching strides with Cowboyboots when falling two out on his Pointing debut, which looks good form in light of that rival’s Haydock win. Seemed to be acting well on soft that day (faster ground always used to suit) and should go close if his jumping holds up.

THIRTYTWO RED – Fairly consistent and loves a test of stamina, but behind Nobody Tells Me over this course and distance last year and would need to be right at the top of his game to be competitive here on his first start in nearly ten months.

YES MY LORD – Mud-loving sort but faint-hearted and doesn’t relish a battle; not seen since giving up and running through a wing at Treborough Hill last May and needs his sights lowered significantly if he is to get back to winning ways.

Conclusion – A classy enough contest but Mustangsallyrally has shown top-class Pointing form this season and a win here would significantly boost the Foxhunters claims of Roulez Cool and Drybrook Bedouin. Most of the others are talented types but also have question marks against their names and Richard Barber’s nine-year-old is a confident selection despite the burden of top-weight.