Paul Jones Private Service – Cheltenham Ante Post 4th Mar 10

Thu, Mar 4, 2010

Three bets today but just one in a handicap. I was hoping to put more up in the handicaps after attending the unveiling of the weights yesterday but a number of horses to catch my eye have more than one entry so I would rather wait until more firms offer Non-Runner No Bet and don’t mind taking a slightly shorter price for that concession. At present Ladbrokes, Blue Square and Bet365 are betting Non-Runner No Bet on all races (as are Hills for the big four championship races) but they are shorter on most horses as a consequence though Ladbrokes and Blue Square are top price Non-Runner No Bet on my Foxhunters’ advice today. As this is an additional analysis to the advertised schedule I have mainly just covered the races in which I have advised a bet and run through some of the handicaps quickly rather than the usual Monday style. As I have put up three of Willie Mullins’ novice hurdlers in previous copy you might want to catch the video of him on the Racing Post site talking about his Festival-bound hurdlers.

TODAY’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Saddlers Storm (ew) NON RUNNER NO BET (NH Chase) – Best prices: 20/1 Corals; 16/1 Hills, Stan James, Paddy Power, Victor Chandler, Betfred, Boylesports; 14/1 Ladbrokes (NR No Bet), Blue Sq (NR No Bet), Bet365 (NR No Bet)
Sanctuaire (ew) (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle) – Best prices: 12/1 Totesport, Hills, Betfred; 10/1 Skybet, Boylesports, Victor Chandler, Corals, Ladbrokes (NR No Bet), Blue Sq (NR No Bet), Corals
Trust Fund (ew) NON RUNNER NO BET (Foxhunters’) – Best prices: 10/1 Ladbrokes (NR No Bet), Blue Square (NR No Bet), Skybet, Betfred, Totesport, Boylesports, Paddy Power, Stan James, Hills

WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
Hopefully you got the 10s about The Package on Monday as he is no bigger than 7s now and I see that shortening further as I don’t believe there is great strength in depth in this race and unlike most of his rivals he is a proper going the right way jobby and is very strong on stats. The fact that Synchonised, who is McManus’ only entry so is generally 12/1 third-favourite is over 40/1 on Betfair suggests he will head to the NH Chase instead. Fourth-favourite is The Tother One who I don’t think can win off top weight and Jonjo’s other fancied one in addition to Synchronised, Theatrical Moment, is three times a bigger price on Betfair which suggests he could be heading for another race. Exmoor Ranger is a player if he jumps and Cappa Bleu is one of the more interesting outsiders (by that I mean 16/1 shots) having not run since the Hennessy but no winner of this race has run in that Newbury contest for 20 years. I also think Nenuphar Collonges will run a decent race but the ground looks like being softer than ideal for him on the opening day. I really am sweet on the front two in the market.

CROSS COUNTRY HANDICAP CHASE
I’ve messed up here by not advising Sizing Australia (ew) when he was 7/1-8/1. He’s just rock sold each-way to me in a race where I can only look at the front three in the betting of which he is a plausible winner but the best we can get now is 11/2. Annoyingly not enough firms were betting on the race for me to put him up so you could all get on hence why I was waiting and now he has shortened. Garde Champetre won this race last year off 150, then he won the December cross country race off 156 and now he has to try and win this off 161. I know I say in the Guide weight is not an issue but his rating may be now he is in the 160s. L’Ami each-way may also be a sensible alternative at 4/1 as it’s pretty much money-back stuff if he is placed which he should be in a race where outside the big three there is nothing to interest me and I could see that being his owner’s bet as he was on Garde Champetre each-way last season when the same two horses dominated the market but the other way round. I will certainly looking at boxing them up in a Trifecta.

NATIONAL HUNT CHASE
I had a quick chat with Martin Keighley yesterday at the Festival Weights unveiling and asked him about his ante-post favourite, Any Currency, to see if he was happy with his Sandown prep run and I was fully waiting for him to say yes but he candidly stated the opposite telling me he was most disappointed with the run. He did say he felt the step up to four miles would eradicate his flat spot and top Irish amateur Derek O’Connor will come in for the ride after Richard Burton was suspended but he didn’t exactly leave me rushing for the oddschecker website after I spoke to him. It would appear my RSA Chase flyer bet at the start of the season before he had even jumped a fence (what was I thinking?), Pettifour, will run here instead so I am going to have to have a couple of shekels on him or I will kick myself if he wins and I let him go unbacked but his jumping will have to improve. I know exactly what I was thinking actually – I got carried away with Paddy Brennan’s enthusiasm for him when we both appeared on a NH Season preview panel where he was positively gushing about the way he had schooled and he has was a classy hurdler. I don’t read much into these kind of things but, for the record, I noted Nigel Twiston-Davies put him up as his best bet of the meeting last week. The horse I like and suggest we take an each-way chance on at 14/1 Non-Runner No Bet with Ladbrokes, Blue Square or Bet365 is Tony Martin’s SADDLERS STORM. I thought long about the bets way to advise the bet as Corals go alone at 20s all-in and if more were doing same I would have suggested 20/1 with no concession. However, they are likely to cut it quickly after they have taken a few of your bets so the general price is really 16s with many others. Therefore, given the choice of 16s all-in or 14s Non-Runner No Bet, the latter has to be the sensible option as I have not seen anything in print this is definitely the plan, just on the grapevine. I like the fact that the stable, famed for their handicap plots, have purely entered him for this race at the Festival and he they also were responsible for last season’s runner-up in Drumconvis so have a clear idea of what is required. His improvement on his last two starts has miraculously coincided with a significant step up in distance winning his last two starts at Fairyhouse on testing ground so I don’t see four miles being a problem, in fact, I see him improving for it. I have been hearing for a while that this is the race they had in mind for him and I don’t think it is the best of runnings so I suggest you take the general 16s to each-way stakes if you can’t get the 20s. It would be nice if they could book Nina Carberry which the stable like to do and if that is the case then watch his odds tumble. Far More Serious is overpriced at 33/1 despite being a ten-year-old and I am hearing the Longsdon yard are favouring this race over the Kim Muir. Rated 130 after beating Fistral Beach before Christmas whilst the favourite Any Currency is just rated 2lbs higher on 132, he isn’t the worst little each-way sniff in the world but he is a ten-year-old and I just wonder if he can progress much beyond that mark of 130 as he will need to win given the recent quality of winners but I am sure he will outrun his odds.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
I was somewhat disturbed to see Petit Robin’s name still amongst the Ryanair Chase entries as Henderson has previously committed him to this race just a couple of weeks ago so I fear it is no way near as cut and dry for the sake of the each-way advice without the favourite at a big price a couple of months back. Henderson was non-committal where he would run at his Open Day on Monday and his price has come in from 120/1 to 25/1 on Betfair for the Ryanair as a result and out to 60/1 for this race which is worrying to say the least. Sounds like someone has been bending his ear. All I hope is that he thinks he already has a legitimate Ryanair contender in Barbers Shop whereas he has nothing for the Champion Chase so wants a runner in each race.

CORAL CUP
I have a few in mind for this including Noble Prince, Lake Legend, Quantitativeeasing, Smoking Aces and Beshabar and that is just at a cursory glance so will have a proper look over the next couple of days.

FRED WINTER JUVENILE NOVICES’ HURDLE
I have a bet but it was tricky whether to take the best price of 12s or take a little shorter and take 10s non-runner no-bet with Ladbrokes but in this instance I will take the 12s all-in as this is his only entry of the meeting and he is definitely an intended runner and suggest we back Paul Nicholls’ SANCTUAIRE (ew) at 12/1. You may recall I put up the same yard’s Nictory Vote for this race last season (at the non-runner no-bet stage which was lucky as he got an injury) and Sanctuaire won the same race at Taunton in February in which Nictory Vote won on his sole British start and I am told he is strongly fancied to run extremely well for the Nicholls team. Statswise you couldn’t hope for much better as he has had the bare minimum of just three runs over hurdles to qualify and was beaten on the first two like all five winners of this race but won his final start like the last four winners. He is also a French import like three of the last four winners and will be in the top half of the handicap like four of the five winners as class tends to tell in these races. He also beat older novices last time out like two of the last three winners. Although Willie Mullins has an entry, I would say it is ore likely Walsh will ride for Nicholls here so I envisage him starting nearer the 7/1 mark than the current 12s so take that price to each-way stakes.

JEWSON NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE
In short I think the favourite Rivaliste is the most likely winner but he is as low as 6/1 so will have a look through for some value alternatives. Nicholls has deliberately put him away since his Sandown second in December to protect his mark where he hit the front too soon and was reeled in close home so expect a more patient ride and he is not too far away in official ratings to the last four winners of the race. I would respect The Hollinwell for sure and J P McManus has four interesting entries of which no doubt at least one has been plotted up for this maybe Sunnyhillboy for the O’Neill yard who have had two seconds in this and Jewson are their stable sponsor so this race is high on their hit list. I think they should run Hey Big Spender in the Plate rather than off neat top weight where he would be more interesting against more exposed horses getting weight.

PERTEMPS FINAL
I like four for this at preset namely Fredo and Prince Erik who won Pertemps qualifiers last time out and I do like last-time-out winners for the Festival handicap hurdles and my gut fancies being Silk Affair who received a less-than-positive ride we’ll call it last time out in a in a race in which the last two Pertemps Final winners were unplaced but she is also in the Coral Cup and Maucaillou who runs this course very well and had a quiet run in the Leopardstown qualifier last time out. However, having had a word with Ian Williams yesterday, I know he is concerned the handicapper may have put Fredo up too much for winning so well at Haydock (14lbs) that it could scupper his chance and he is really hoping that Fair Along stays in off top weight as that would leave him bang on 10st but he fears he will head for the World Hurdle bringing plenty more horses into the handicap. Alfie Sherrin could be a good thing but there isn’t much value at 6/1 and I everyone noticed what an easy ride Ainama received in the Newbury qualifier so he hasn’t been missed either at a top-priced 11/1 but I just wonder if he is a typical ex-Flat horse that would prefer a flat track.

TRIUMPH HURDLE
As I feared Alan King ruled Mille Chief out of the race stating he would not recover from his lameness in time which is most disappointing as I really did feel he would take the beating in a moderate year as they think he is something special. If we want to take a positive slant on this news that means the chance’s of our other bet Secant Star chance has significantly improved and we had double the price about him than we did about Mille Chief so, who knows, it may turn out to be a blessing in disguise (now that is a positive slant!).

FOXHUNTERS’ CHASE
I feel pretty confident I have got this down to two potential winners in Roulez Cool and Trust Fund and I was hoping to put up the former but sadly only one firm is betting at bigger than 7/2 so he hasn’t been missed by the bookmakers and I don’t think he will be much shorter on the day so I see him now as more of a save on the day than an ante-post bet at 7/2. I genuinely feel he should be a little shorter (was hoping for 5/1+) as he was given a rating of 148 to run in this season’s Grand National and if he runs to that he will win. In fact, you can count on one hand the number of hunter chasers capable of running to a mark of 140 let alone 148 and he is only seven so is only going to keep improving. Trained by Robert Waley-Cohen who has twice won the Aintree version with Katarino, Sam Waley-Cohen will ride (Long Run’s rider) and he would be one of the best amateurs in the race. The winner of both his points this season not beating a lot but his form chance is based on two runs last spring when winning easily at Bangor off a mark of 130 before narrowly losing out off 142 at Uttoxeter in a competitive 17-runner handicap featuring some quality handicappers where he jumped and travelled superbly throughout. Raised to 148 for that, most Foxhunters’ winners only run to a mark of in the 130s in victory so hopefully you can see why I wanted to put him up but I can’t at 7/2. However, I do have an each-way bet in the race and this may surprise you given I am against older horses on the trends and that is TRUST FUND. Backing a 12-y.o slightly grates me but we are not dealing with a fading star here, in fact he won the Aintree Fox Hunters’ last season putting up a career-best effort plus he has only raced 22 times which is nothing by pointing/hunting standards and, crucially, he is trained by Richard Barber who has won this race on four times no less so I think all that overrides his age and word is reaching me they think they have a belting chance of making it five wins in the race as Trust Fund is very much pleasing them at home. Don’t be worried about a lack of a run, he will be fit as this is his target and I think he will be backed into second favourite at the off. Even though I would go for Roulez Cool if a gun were placed to my head, everything is relevant to price and Trust Fund just strikes me a rock solid each-way bet at 10/1 as he is a consistent horse given a rating of 140 in the Grand National which, in a normal year would be good enough to win the Foxhunters’. Last year they laid him out to win at Aintree as he is owned by Lord Daresbury who is chairman of the racecourse and were successful but, now they have won that race, they are laying him out for the Cheltenham Foxhunters’ this season. Last season’s third and winner of the Punchestown Festival equivalent, Baby Run, is second favourite after winning his prep at Warwick but I think he’s a dodgy stayer as it was an awful renewal last year in retrospect. Then we have the exciting Sericena who won her debut under Rules very easily a week ago at Taunton having impressed in the pointing field. She could be anything so have time for her chance but I think Dun Doire will be under-priced as he is a former Festival winner who was rated 11lbs behind what Roulez Cool is now when at his peak (is 12 now) but will be supported as he is a familiar name and maybe Ireland’s best hope so over-loyal Irish punters will back him. Agus A Vic has not been entered for the second year running and he has been their best hunter for the last couple of seasons. Turthen virtually collapsed up the hill when second last year so I can’t have him and Robbers Glen (fifth last year and has won two hunter chases this season) would probably have been beaten last time but for the leader falling and his 50-year-old lady jockey gave him an awful ride last year and could do so again. In short, take the general 10/1 to each-way stakes about Trust Fund and consider having a saver on Roulez Cool on the day.

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Flat Out (ew) @ 33/1 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) (win stake refunded if Dunguib wins)
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy) NON RUNNER
Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1 (Arkle Trophy)
The Package (ew) @ 10/1 (William Hill Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Medermit @ 11/1 (Champion Hurdle)
No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1 (Mares Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase) NON RUNNER
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase)
*Master Minded to win by over five lengths @ 5/2 (Champion Chase)
Sanctuaire (ew) @ 12/1 (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle)
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Bumper)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
Shillingstone (ew) @ 16/1 (Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3-4) NON RUNNER
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Enterprise Park @ 10/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
Tell Massini @ 5/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)

ANTE-POST SUGGESTED NON-RUNNER NO BETS:
Saddlers Storm (ew) @ 14/1 (NH Chase) – Labrokes, Blue Square & Bet365
Trust Fund (ew) @ 10/1 (Foxhunters’) – Ladbrokes & Blue Square

* Indicates market limited to not all bookmakers