Cheltenham Festival Preview Evening – London

Fri, Mar 5, 2010

Firstly can I let you know there has been one change to the advertised schedule of Cheltenham Festival Preview Evenings covered as Carlisle (March 9th) has been replaced with London (March 11th) as we felt it was too similar a panel to Doncaster which is the next in our series of previews to be covered on Saturday.

LONDON RACING CLUB PREVIEW EVENING

Thursday, March 4th

Of the ten previews we are covering, this is the first that I (Paul Jones) have covered and of the ‘over 100’ of these I have been to down the years, this was in the top third. Moved this year to the Jurys Hotel (Holiday Inn) in Kensington, it was a far more pleasant setting than its previous location and that no doubt assisted bulging the audience members which was significantly up on the last few years. The panel went through all 26 races but many of the handicaps featured little of interest to report back on so I have only covered the races that I felt were of note. Barry Faulkner of Attheraces took the chair and the three-man panel comprised of professional punter and RacingUK pundit Dave Nevison (DN) who was on top form, former top jockey Steve Smith Eccles (SSE) and Totesport’s ever-genial PR representative George ‘Pretty Boy’ Primarolo (GP). At least he didn’t dance like he did when compered a section at the Horserace Writers Awards Lunch. In fairness, they whizzed through all 26 races in pretty good time.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE

DN: Regards Dunguib, if anyone wants to take 4/6 at the Festival about anything, then good luck to them as you won’t find a bookie struggling to take their bet. He has a huge ask in my book given his jumping and is a ludicrous price. You would be deranged to back it at 4/6. Menorah and Get Me Out Of Here arrive here with stronger hurdling form and are over ten times the price. Menorah got a shocking ride last time and is much better than that.

SSE: I just don’t know what Dunguib has beaten over hurdles but an even bigger concern is his jumping. Having ridden in many ‘Supremes’ I know that just one mistake puts you in trouble and if you make two then you are gone mate. I would lay him until the cows come home. 7/1 represents good value about Get Me Out Of Here whilst Menorah got a tosser of a ride from Johnson so that wasn’t his running and he would be my preference.

GP: I don’t think Dunguib will start as low as 4/6 as the rails bookmakers are sure to want to take him on. He won probably the best bumper ever run but is short enough and Get Me Out Of Here is a solid alternative. Blackstairmountain looks too short at 10/1 due to liabilities having been put up by Pricewise.

ARKLE TROPHY

DN: Captain Cee Bee has not done anything to merit being as low as 7/2. The highest rated chaser in the race has also won twice at the track and is a massive 33/1 and he is French Opera and I am praying Henderson runs here rather than the Grand Annual. He is non-runner no-bet horse for sure. Sizing Europe has had problems in the past and that would worry me at the top level so I think the most likely winner is Somersby. Being trained by Henrietta Knight, he has done well to run twice this season given their policy is that their horses should not run at all. She is a fantastic trainer of just one horse as, like most men, I don’t think she can multi-task. I reckon she bypasses all the other boxes at the yard and just heads straight for him.

SSE: Captain Cee Bee’s jumping is suspect to me and two miles at Cheltenham can find that out so I would oppose him. Somersby is trained by an old-fashioned trainer and by that I mean they set an early target and stick to that plan and give them plenty of time between races. From day one this has been the target and he will take plenty of beating.

GP: The bookmakers will want to take on Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe. In fact Sports Line has impressed me most of the Irish. The Nightingale would be interesting if he ran here but that is now looking unlikely.

WILLIAM HILL TROPHY

DN: Bensalem could easily hit the deck early on. He hit most fences in just a three runner race last time so how the hell he can be favourite in a 24-runner handicap I don’t know – probably down to his trainer talking him up. The form of The Package’s win last time has not worked out well but I thought it was interesting in a David Ashforth feature on Jonjo O’Neill just about the only big hope he didn’t mention was Theatrical Moment so he is interesting non-runner no-bet as has other entries.

SSE: Talked tactics…..don’t go up the inner as the leaders fall back on you.

GP: Well done those who got a nice price about The Package but he is a professional loser for me. Bensalem could be well treated off 143 but he can’t jump but Theatrical Moment strikes me as another Wichita Lineman for the O’Neill yard who was also a novice. Exmoor Ranger has been nicely backed but he always is.

CHAMPION HURDLE

DN: With Go Native going for a £1million bonus, I hope it’s not going to be a crooked race! (was joking!). Very open and ground conditions are now starting to lean more the way of Go Native than Solwhit but I think both will be beaten. I’ve got three running for me they being Khyber Kim but I am nervous on his drift on Betfair today, Medermit who showed a good turn of foot last time and Punjabi who may have beaten nothing last time but did it in a style that told me he is absolutely spot on and right on top of his game. Zaynar shouldn’t even be in the race.

SSE: Solwhit and Go Native have been in great form all year and Go Native can take all the beating. I won two Triumphs for Henderson and both of those were really 2m4f horses which is also what Zaynar is so I can’t have him on my mind. Punjabi, on the other hand, jumped with much more of his zest last time than in his previous two runs and is coming right at the right time.

GP: Go Native should have been favourite after his Christmas Hurdle win. Solwhit will win…………..the Aintree Hurdle. He is a 2m4f horse. Punjabi e/w at 10/1 sticks out like a sore thumb to me and he was so stylish at Kempton. I feel sorry for Sublimity who they keep running on ground he hates and if it were to come up close to good he can go well.

DAVID NICHOLSON MARES HURDLE

DN: Quevega has absolutely one horse to beat (Voler La Vedette) and is odds-against in a match. That is value compared to Dunguib at 4/6.

SSE: If Quevega runs the same race as when just behind Solwhit and Punjabi at Punchestown last spring then she is a lay down.

GP: Bit of each-way money for No One Tells Me but pretty quiet.

NH CHASE

DN: I fancy Any Currency each-way who has competed and won competitive handicaps and now is back in to novice company. Massasoit had a wind op which seems compulsory for Nicholls horses but I am still not convinced about him. Pettifour doesn’t jump well enough and will be amateur ridden in this race.

GP: there have been bits for Massasoit but maybe as he is Nicholls’ only entry. Sychronised has also been nibbled at doubtless given Jonjo has such a fine record in this race. All Fabalu does his stay so he catches my eye most.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE

DN: I’ve not backed anything yet but am surprised Rite Of Passage is still 7/2 as reckon he could be a 13/8 on the day. Regards Peddlers Cross, is McCain turning into the next Mary Reveley? He seems to lose it south of the Watford Gap as doesn’t blood them in against good horses preferring to win weak races in the north by 20 lengths.

SSE: Rite Of Passage’s form was let down dismally by Grey Soldier last week but I still reckon he is the one to beat.

GP: Rite Of Passage is a knocking bet at 7/2. I can’t see anything being good enough to beat him and he is only going to shorten.

RSA CHASE

DN: Punchestowns has only beaten chaser of note so far and is favourite on potential. Long Run’s inclination to dive at his fences worries me tremendously so can see him on the deck as I can Diamond Harry who wasn’t efficient over his fences at Newbury. If Punchestowns doesn’t win I could see this being a 40/1 boilover. Brennan thinks Weird Al will win but, if so, I think it would have to be by default. If I was a bookmaker I would be laying the top three in the market.

SSE: My old boss dominates the market with Punchestowns and Long Run and I would have Punchestowns down as one of my best bets of the meeting. He is a monster. Long Run is very classy but at Warwick Waley-Cohen almost got him beat by asking him at many fences when he should sit still. He is a very good amateur but he is still an amateur and there is a world of difference between him and Barry Geraghty and he could have him beaten before the race starts.

GP: We want to keep Long Run on our side. The jockey has won a Grade 1 chase on him becoming the first amateur to do so since Jim Wilson on Little Owl.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

DN: I can not understand why Master Minded went from 7/4 to 4/6 after beating Mahogany Blaze last time and the three horses that follow him in the betting were all impressive in their trials last time out. Kalahari King won probably the best 2m handicap chase I have ever seen last time after Ferdy Murphy told us he would be delighted if he finished eighth. What a master-stroke! He would have won the Arkle by three lengths but for a mistake three out last year and it is beyond belief that Master Minded is odds-on.

SSE: Master Minded is awesome at his best but there is no such thing as a good thing. If he jumps round, he wins.

GP: Twist Magic is not a Cheltenham horse. Kalahari King looks very solid each-way, stick him in an each-way double with Rite Of Passage.

WEATHERBYS CHAMPION BUMPER

DN: I will already be in the Montpelier Hotel.

SSE: I’ve heard that Hidden Universe has come on bundles and Pat Smullen rides so I expect him to start favourite.

GP: The age stats are against Hidden Universe but there is still fair money for him but it is money on the day which really matters.

JEWSON NOVICES’ HANDICAP CHASE

DN: The plot horses struggle to get in the handicap chases anymore which is a good thing. I thought Colin Tizzard’s was a cud-chewing country bumpkin outfit but in Hey Big Spender they have a player though maybe he could have been cuter as could have 6lbs too much. He is still a good each-way bet.

SSE: J P McManus loves these Festival handicaps and Sunnyhillboy has been similarly campaigned to Reveillez who won this race for him.

GP: Rivaliste and The Hollinwell have been nicely supported. I’m not entirely sure that Sunnyhillboy has been putting his best foot forward over fences so far so can see some improvement there.

RYANAIR CHASE

DN: I backed Planet Of Sound before Ascot feeling he is a horse waiting to happen but am not sure how he can come back from that. Barbers Shop is a bit of a ponce and I can’t have him winning a really good race and I wouldn’t touch Voy Por Ustedes even if he touched 999/1 on the machine as he has gone and can’t win if he started now. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea are handicappers.

SSE: The deciding factor will be the ground as Poquelin needs it near good but if it turned near soft I would fancy Tranquil Sea to confirm Paddy Power Gold Cup form.

GP: This is already a trends race and the Paddy Power and Boylesports Gold Cups are the obvious races to follow. At bigger prices, Albertas Run makes some appeal if the ground starts to dry up.

LADBROKES WORLD HURDLE

DN: I am convinced Big Buck’s will touch Evens in-running so leave it in there rather than taking 4/7 now. I’ve backed Time For Rupert e/w as he is getting better with every race and can’t be with Karabak given the King stable have been struggling. Tidal Bay is also value as he is the other proven Grade 1 horse in the race.

SSE: I can’t look any further than Big Buck’s. He is head and shoulders above these. What else can you say?

GP: Big Buck’s is not totally bomb proof. I have time for Sentry Duty and Tidal Bay and also feel that Time For Rupert is the best e/w value.

TRIUMPH HURDLE

DN: I am just not interested in the juvenile races this season. Anyone who reckons Soldatino was impressive at Kempton was watching a different race to me. He beat rocking horses.

SSE: Soldatino has solid form on a line through Ultimate and I have heard he has come out of Kempton bouncing.

GP: This race has been a total mess from the start of the season and still is. Soldatino is too short now but the word from Ireland is that Secant Star is the one even though Mullins thinks he is a chaser in the making. Commanche Court won this for Ireland and was top class chaser.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE

DN: I was impressed with Restless Harry but am not sure there is any value in him. The Betchworth Kid is the horse I like as I thought it was a good run when third in a slow race over an inadequate trip at Kempton and I want to back all three of those horses next time out as I think that was a good race. He was also unlucky not to win the Ebor.

SSE: I like the look of Restless Harry who would be much shorter if trained by one of the big guns and he is sure to enjoy the step up to three miles.

GP: Tell Massini is a worthy favourite and already has a rating good enough to win the race. I would be worried The Betchworth Kid has been on the go a long time having also ran on the Flat and am not sure I would trust him in a finish so take Tell Massini to outbattle him.

GOLD CUP

DN: I don’t think Denman is a factor and reckon he is a one race a season horse. Kauto Star to win but my bet of the meeting is Tricky Trickster without Kauto Star, without Kauto Star and Denman, and also each-way. I think he will be the shortest priced winner of the Grand National since Red Rum. The actual number of horses that will stay in the Gold Cup are few and I am not absolutely uncertain he can’t win it. He might just be something new coming through.

SSE: Keeping Kauto Star fresh is the key and I can’t see anything to beat him, especially not Denman.

GP: I felt like the biggest pillock at Newbury in our promotional bus after Denman’s flop in the AON Chase! It could be he was more undercooked than we and Nicholls thought.