Paul Jones Private Service – 6th & 7th Mar 10

Fri, Mar 5, 2010

Saturday, March 6^th

My mind has been totally focussed on Cheltenham this last week so please forgive me if you don’t feel this is in-depth as usual as I have had very little time to study for the weekend as going through the Festival handicaps is my priority for us right now and this isn’t the most exciting of weekends to be honest but here goes. I see Binocular might be back in the Champion Hurdle and Petit Robin has been switched to the Ryanair. Does Henderson know what he is doing? The twists and turns of Cheltenham. Make sure to log in at 1.00 on Monday for more bets then every day of the week up to Friday for similar updates and Festival bets.

2.05 NEWBURY
I quite like Coeur De Fou here especially now that the Tom George yard has come out of its slump. His close-up third at Cheltenham two runs back is his run that is catching my eye and I recall the race well as I got a late message to have a few quid on each-way at a big price. He kept on really well on the run-in to be beaten over a length and I would look at that run rather than finishing third at Doncaster last time on good ground as he is clearly a staying two-miler so this ground on this track should suit him well. Zafrangar beat him at Cheltenham but he has struggled under his new handicap mark since then so I would be very hopeful he can turn the tables. Henry King won a good bumper here but has not gone on since then and maybe running him against Dunguib at Cheltenham came too soon in his career after just one run. He has a great chance of his second to Pepe Simo on his hurdling debut and was upsides Bellvano when falling two out here but his last run at Wincanton was most disappointing. I am sure Osric must be better than he has shown in three starts so far and could fare a lot better now sent to a novices’ handicap and is interesting but I would be sweet on the each-way chances of Couer De Fou if he is 5/1 or bigger.

2.20 DONCASTER
Good ground is the order of the day at Doncaster but, to be frank, I am far more interested in watching the Cheltenham horses going through their paces which is covered live by ATR after racing than the actual racing. I don’t think the ground is soft enough for According To Pete and just wonder whether the handicapper may have caught up with Spring Breeze for his last two hurdling runs (and wins) and he has run well in three races on the Flat since. I can see a big run from Squadron. Restricted to just one start this season, Alan King’s horses have been in good form this week with 10 of his last 11 runners before today all finishing in the first three. He wouldn’t have been sharp enough for his belated seasonal debut behind Alfie Sherrin a couple of weeks back but that should have put him spot on and he is open to plenty of improvement moving up to this distance from his runs last season. Wendel is another once-raced-this-season contender I have plenty of time for as two of his novice hurdle runs last season gives him a big chance having not been beaten far by Medermit before easily beating Chariot Charger. A 104 day absence is not usually a problem for the Charlie Mann yard.

2.35 NEWBURY
A veterans’ handicap chase and Trabolgan will surely be popular having won a Hennessy on his last visit to Newbury but he got shot of Barry Geraghty four out when poised in behind ten days ago in a similar race. The worry is two runs in ten days for a notoriously fragile horse but I still he is the one to beat. Gone To Lunch has been most disappointing this season and prefers better ground, Eric’s Charm seems miles better at Sandown than anywhere else and Knowhere seems to be getting progressively worse so I feel the dangers are Dom D’Orgeval having his first run for Nick Williams and Briery Fox. There was good money for Dom D’Orgeval ahead of the Eider Chase last week which was abandoned so I have time for him but I do feel Briery Fox is getting better with each start this season even though he has been off the pace and last season’s Bet365 Gold Cup runner-up is now embarking on his time of the season. Providing all eight stand their ground, there may be better value in him each-way than Trabolgan to win.

3.00 KELSO
This looks a match between Bedlam Boy and Silk Drum who are two of the North’s best two mile novice chases and Ferdy Murphy still has the former in the Arkle. However, I prefer Silk Drum despite an absence of 140 days and I have little doubt Howard Johnson has Aintree in mind for him and was an easy winner of his only chase start which was over this course and distance in mid October. He was regarded highly enough to contest two Grade 1 juvenile hurdle races last spring but disappointed on both occasions but chasing looks his game judged on his Kelso win and he could still be very good whereas Bedlam Boy had his limitations exposed when beaten 14 lengths by Tazbar last time out and the winner would also have found the trip on the sharp side that day.

3.10 NEWBURY
This was a £100K handicap last year so am not surprised the field has been cut to just nine for a massive cut in prize money. I am little disappointed to see Our Vic declared here as was hoping he would definitely run in the William Hill Chase to keep the weights down for The Package and again he ran above my expectations last time when second to Silver By Nature. He is likely to keep proving me wrong but I do feel he needs 3m+ now so maybe 2m4f even on soft ground wouldn’t be enough of a stamina test for him. Interesting to see Walsh on Pasco and not Big Fella Thanks as the latter could still be his Grand National ride (though surely something will have to go amiss with Tricky Trickster) but I can see why as he is a flat, galloping track specialist and, as such, I advised him as a bet over C/D on Hennessy day where he was all over a winner until caught close home. I would ignore his next run as Exeter’s undulations wouldn’t be for this massive horse. He is off a 6lbs higher mark than when just touched off on Hennessy day but this looks a less competitive race so I make him the most likely winner. Battlecry looks an obvious each-way alternative for the yard that won last weekend’s big handicap after three second places, the penultimate of which to Watch My Back who is currently ante-post favourite for the Byrne Group Plate at the Cheltenham Festival. Can’t Buy Time runs here in his final prep race before the Grand National so maybe he won’t be absolutely cherry ripe and I just don’t think Panjo Bere, who won at Ascot for a second time last time out, is as effective racing left-handed.

3.25 DONCASTER
A good race is this. Although I like Arbor Supreme for the Grand National, I do have time for Iris De Balme if it rides no worse than good-soft at Aintree (though he is not certain to get a run looking at the weights) but he has got his good ground here for sure and I felt he ran a race chock full of promise in a novice hurdle last month on his first run for 22 months having won the Scottish National and finished fourth in the Bet365 Gold Cup. To me he was travelling best two out in that novice hurdle but just blew up and that should have brought him on no end and he runs off the same mark as when fourth (beaten only five lengths) in that Bet365 Gold Cup so has a major chance. As he may not get in at Aintree, I would hope they will be going all out here. If Coe wins on good ground after I did my dough on him on heavy ground last time I will be seriously cursing but he did catch my eye for the first 2m4f of that 3m4f race so maybe he does have more pace than I thought but I couldn’t touch him after the way he weakened last time. I don’t think this will be an exacting enough test of stamina for Merigo who missed his big chance last week when the 4m1f Eider Chase was abandoned. Henry Daly has stated this is a stepping stone to Aintree for Possol so although he will run well he won’t get the kitchen sink treatment. Gidam Gidam, Gypsy George, Daldini and Wogan are all in-form contenders so this is a hot handicap and, of those I prefer Wogan but I think Iris De Balme could be the one for today.

3.35 KELSO
Will Be Done was very disappointing on his last two runs so it’s hard to fancy him and although Sa Suffit and Justwhateverulike won well last time, I prefer Cloudy Lane who I felt ran very well when fourth behind Silver By Nature in a valuable handicap as he is not really a slogger but a classy stayer not that off being good enough to run in the Gold Cup in my opinion and I think this drop in trip is what he wants. As he is trained by McCain, they have tried to turn him into a Grand National horse but I don’t think he stays much beyond 3m and 2m6f on testing ground looks about right for him.

3.45 NEWBURY
Sean Curran has his string in good nick and could land this handicap hurdle with Classic Dream. Successful on his first two starts of the season at small tracks, Cheltenham and a raise in class was all a bit too much for him last time out and he basically blew his chance early doors by pulling too hard under Mattie Batchelor. However his regular conditional rider claiming 7lbs who won on him in his previous two races is back in the plate today in a less demanding race and that could make all the difference. Marc Aurele for Nicholls and Walsh is likely to be towards the head of the market but there can be little doubt he has not exceeded expectations at all over hurdles so could be a false price and looks like he might be worth taking on. Benfleet Boy would also enter consideration off top weight. He likes this track having finished a close second here twice on the Flat and over hurdles and looks an ideal kind of McCoy ride who takes the leg up for the first time. Given Marc Aurele has not lived up to expectations, it may be worth chancing Classic Dream and Benfleet Boy to small stakes to come out and top.

Sunday March 7^th

3.00 NAAS
Zaarito has fallen in three of his five chase starts so that looks like his achilles heel but I actually think he jumps okay and if he puts in a clear round he really should have much class for these though Whatuthink is a decent type on his day but not as classy as Zaarito who I reckon would have won the Dr P J Moriarty Chase but for a last fence fall and the winner of that race franked the form winning at Leopardstown last weekend.

4.00 NAAS
Rare Bob looked badly in need of the run on his only start since winning the Grade 1 staying chase at the Punchestown Festival when he beat Joncol. However, he looked fresh and well when he sighted in a public school at Leopardstown last weekend and has been nibbled at for the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival so, if that is the plan, you would expect him to run a big race here especially now that the weights are out though a win would see him pick up a penalty. This is a nice prize but if the Festival is the plan, they wouldn’t want a penalty as he is near enough top weight anyway. On that basis maybe Willie Mullins holds the key with Equus Maximus and Ballytrim and, with Walsh on the former, he could be the one.