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Doncaster Racecourse – 6th March 2010

Panel

Simon Mapletoft (MC) SM
Craig Reid (Tote) CR
Andrew Thornton AT
Mick Fitzgerald MF
Keith Reveley KR

There were a couple of changes on the panel as Ferdy Murphy and Denis O’Regan had other commitments but Andy Thornton and Keith Reveley were more than suitable replacements for the first ever Preview Evening at Doncaster.

Supreme Novices’

SM: So, starting off with many peoples’ banker of the week, can Dunguib be beaten?

MF: There is no doubting Dunguib’s ability and I’d definitely be backing him if he were to take his place in the Champion Hurdle.

AT: Better ground would be an advantage for him as the quicker they go the better it seems but I can’t see him beaten I’m afraid even if it’s on the soft side. Get Me Out Of here has an advantage with his experience in big fields and Blackstairmountain may be one to fill a place.

KR: It’s normally a pacy track on the Tuesday which will certainly play into his hands. My each-way horse for the race would be Oscar Whiskey. He has been most impressive so far and hasn’t had to come off the bridle.

MF: Just to add to that, Oscar Whiskey is a horse that I know Nicky Henderson likes a lot and, for a novice to win the Totesport Trophy with the ease that Get Me Out Of Here did was sensational so he would be the one for me without the favourite.

CR: There hasn’t really been a back-breaking amount for Dunguib as he has been odds on for a while now but there has been money in the each-way market for Oscar Whiskey, Blackstairmountain and Get Me Out Of Here. If Dunguib jumps and gets to the finish, there is no doubt he will win. I understand that Paddy Power have taken so much on Dunguib that they may take Ireland back into recession!

The Tote went on to offer a one night only special on Dunguib at evens – the best industry price out there.

Arkle Chase

SM: This looks like an open renewal of the Arkle but do the cards lie with the Irish challenge?

MF: It is so often said that previous Cheltenham form is a big advantage and Captain Cee Bee certainly has that when winning the Supreme a couple of years ago ahead of Binocular. He would definitely have beaten Sizing Europe at Leopardstown if he hadn’t have fallen. However, Somersby has been trained specifically with Cheltenham in mind and was an unlucky loser somewhat in the Supreme last year. He is rated as a superstar by connections and is the one for me.

AT: Somersby was over a second quicker in the King Henry VIII than Twist Magic in the Tingle Creek when winning at Sandown in December. He is a good jumper and there should be no worries with the lay-off. If AP wasn’t tied to Captain Cee Bee, I think it would be a tough choice between the two for him. The downhill fences may find Captain Cee Bee out so I’m a Somersby fan.

KR: I think it’s good that Somersby goes to Cheltenham fresh and Henrietta has definitely done the right thing. He jumps at speed which I like and is a top-class horse. Tataniano maybe the dark horse as conditions weren’t right for him last time out and his win at Cheltenham back in November was a top performance.

CR: We are with Somersby at the moment as he hasn’t done anything wrong. There’s been plenty about for both Captain Cee Bee and Sizing Europe but I’m not convinced that Sizing Europe likes Cheltenham. There’s been some each-way money about for Riverside Theatre.

The next offer of the evening was Captain Cee Bee at an industry best price of 4/1

CR: If the first two favourites win it will cripple us and I may be out of a job!

Champion Hurdle

SM: It looks to be another wide open contest, who should we have on our side?

AT: Solwhit and Go Native have both got rock solid form but Solwhit may not act at Cheltenham; we simply don’t know. It’s a really awkward race between the top 5 or 6. Punjabi was encouraging at Cheltenham and those that fancied Zaynar shouldn’t be put off by his run at Kelso. Medermit won’t be far away if he gets a clear run and Khyber Kim seems to have grown up a lot since his switch to Nigel Twiston-Davies. These would be my two against the field.

MF: It would be criminal for people to write Punjabi off. He won the race last year off of the back of a bad run and has had a better preparation this time around. He really zipped at Kempton last time and I know for a fact that Barry Geraghty really likes him. Zaynar hated the ground at Kelso and shall be wearing cheek-pieces this time around, which will undoubtedly help him. On another note, Binocular had a gallop this morning and seemed to come out of it really well. He could yet go to post. But for me Go Native is the number one. He is a supreme traveller and has that all important course form. Solwhit needs cut but there looks to be a dry spell and it may not be soft enough for him.

KR: I’m a Go Native man. Celestial Halo is all about pace and both Zaynar and Solwhit look like stayers in my opinion. Starluck is a very live outsider though. He has been quietly brought through the season and Timmy Murphy took a gentle approach in the Christmas Hurdle. Theirs is a hell of a lot of each-way value there.

SM: There’s been a lot of talk about the going, they may even water.

AT: There is so much track at Cheltenham that there is always fresh ground to run on. If it dries between now and then, then they may well water as you can guarantee that they will make it good to soft on the day.

MF: If they have two more dry days then it will be good to firm and they will water. You can be sure that they won’t race on good ground on the first day.

CR: I’ll echo those sentiments; it will be made good to soft on Tuesday. Zaynar has been the money horse and the cheek-pieces have undoubtedly shortened his price. Medermit will not get near Go Native and I think Go Native is the best horse in the race. At a big price, Sublimity cannot be ruled out. Good Cheltenham form is always a plus.

Neptune Investment Novices’ Hurdle

SM: Another strong Irish challenge, can the home-trained horses step up to the plate?

KR: I’m a Finian’s Rainbow fan. He has the same sire as Tazbar and has a phenomenal cruising speed. He jumps well and gallops all the way to the finish. A really nice horse. Rite Of Passage hasn’t come off the bridle over hurdles yet and I’m not entirely convinced that he’ll find anything. Quel Esprit would be the main danger for me.

MF: Peddlers Cross is a horse I love. I’ve been very impressed with him and Jason Maguire has said that he’s the best horse that he’s ever ridden. Rite of Passage looks very good but he had his chance last year and he struggled at Cheltenham. Finian’s Rainbow looks a picture. He is much better than his run in the Challow Hurdle and Adrian Maguire, who trained him as a pointer in Ireland, has said that he could be the next Denman.

AT: Peddlers Cross travels really well and he looks like a professional horse. Rite Of Passage made hard work of the Cheltenham bumper last year so I’m not convinced that he handles the track. It’s strange to see a second season novice here but Reve De Sivola must go close. On paper, it could be between five with equal chances but Peddlers Cross holds the value for me.

CR: Rite Of Passage has definitely been backed by the right people. He has improved for his bumper third and should take all the beating if prominently ridden. I get the feeling that connections would be devastated if he weren’t to win. Peddlers Cross has been well backed each-way as has Reve De Sivola who has done nothing wrong. For me, Rite Of Passage is a banker though.

RSA Chase

SM: With Punchestowns having a setback in mid-week, is Long Run now the one to be on?

KR: My son James rides for six months of the year in France for Guillaume Macaire, who coincidentally trained Long Run in France. So we’ve known about Long Run for a while now. He is a machine and is so experienced. He coped very well with the tough fences at Auteuil and stays very well. I thought Tazbar was travelling brilliantly in the Feltham but Long Run just cruised past in second gear. He just ticks all the boxes.

MF: Long Run knows how to get the job done. If he was ridden by a more popular jockey then he would be an even money chance. But take nothing away from Sam Waley-Cohen, he is a good pilot and I would have no worries with him on board. He is still young and could be a real star. He made a top horse in Tazbar look pedestrian on Boxing Day. He is the real deal. Punchestowns should not be discounted. He had a gallop this morning and came home sound. The best bet is for Nicky Henderson to train the winner.

AT: This is an exceptional RSA. I don’t think that Diamond Harry and Weird Al, even though they are good horses, are in the class of the top two. The only slight worry with Long Run is whether he handles the undulations at Cheltenham so this has to be taken on trust. Burton Port at a bigger price looks the bet of the race for me. He is a confident chaser and seems to be the forgotten horse in the race. A Nicky Henderson 1-2-3 looks very much on the cards.

CR: We shall be putting Punchestowns in as a runner as we think he shall get over his setback but punters should sit tight at the moment as there is very little value here. We have been against Punchestowns and Weird Al in the each-way market. All the money in the last week has been for Long Run. He is going to take the world of beating.

Champion Chase

SM: Master Minded – Can he do it again?

AT: On his Newbury win, then yes he will. Kalahari King may go well but he will need quick ground to feature. Twist Magic seems to be a different horse this campaign but I do have my doubts as to whether he is quite as good around Cheltenham as he is at Sandown. The value in the race is Well Chief as he goes well fresh but you can’t really oppose Master Minded.

MF: Kalahari King has performed well at Cheltenham before and may be a good alternative. Ferdy Murphy is the expert at priming his horses for the big day so he should have a great chance. However, if Master Minded is given a lead, then there’s no stopping him. He jumped beautifully at Newbury, bar the last fence, and looks to be streets ahead of the rest.

KR: Ferdy Murphy didn’t expect Kalahari King to win last time out but he carried top weight well and just kept on going. If he is on Master Minded’s tail come three out, he is certain to stay on up the hill and could cause a bit of an upset. Definitely the each-way value in the race though.

CR: There looks like being only 8or 9 runners in the field so there’s good value in the each-way market. If the real Master Minded turns up on the day, then he has 10 or 12lbs in hand on the rest of the field. Twist Magic is better at Sandown, Big Zeb is not a Cheltenham horse and Forpadydeplasterer has had far too many setbacks. Kalahari King was very good at Doncaster and is the each-way value.

Ryanair Chase

SM: This looks to be very competitive, who has the edge?

MF: It is such an open contest. Planet of Sound cannot jump as badly as he did at Ascot if he’s going to feature. Poquelin and Tranquil Sea were close in November and look to be the top two for me. Tranquil Sea put in a good performance last time out, has a good Cheltenham record and is in good form so must have a live chance. Dessie Hughes has said that his best bet of the Festival is Schindlers Hunt each-way so that’s something else to consider. Barbers Shop has a good Cheltenham record and comes fit and fighting so must have a chance. An interesting one for me is Petit Robin following his switch from the Champion Chase. AP goes well on him so he could surprise.

AT: I think that 2m5f at Cheltenham will be perfect for Barbers Shop and racing off level weights will certainly help. Poquelin is better on good ground so we shall have to see on the day. Tranquil Sea has progressed really well and looks to be the real deal. He is on an upward curve physically and ticks all the boxes; as do the other two come to that matter. Voy Por Ustedes relishes racing at Cheltenham but his best days seem to be behind him now.

KR: Poquelin has done nothing wrong but it is a wide open race. I’m a big Barbers Shop fan. He travels well and has a chance. Voy Por Ustedes is rock solid at Cheltenham and looks to be a massive price for a horse of his class.

CR: Barbers Shop has been the best backed horse but he didn’t stay in the Hennessey and King George and we are against him. I think the Paddy Power form is key between Poquelin and Tranquil Sea but Nicholls’ runner should come out on top. Schindlers Hunt has been backed each-way but he has got to cut out the blunders.

World Hurdle

SM: Big Buck’s looks unbeatable, is he?

CR: Big Buck’s has been nibbled at but there hasn’t been heavy support because he is so short. Karabak is not even close and Sentry Duty may not stay. Time For Rupert has been backed each-way but Tidal Bay should be the only one to give Big Buck’s a run for his money. He is the each-way value.

MF: Big Buck’s would have to fall over to lose. We know that he always hits a flat spot but he just gets the job done. He’s not flashy but he is head and shoulders above anything else.

AT: Big Buck’s is uncomplicated and he has no notable flaws. Sentry Duty was a good flat horse so will need good ground to perform. He does go well fresh and could be there or thereabouts with a late challenge. Tidal Bay and Karabak are simply not good enough.

KR: Tidal Bay was not a natural chaser but I fancy him to go close now he’s back over hurdles. Big Buck’s can be caught out on fastish ground but it is still unlikely that he will be beaten.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle

SM: Some potential superstars here, will the home-trained horses come out on top?

AT: Tell Massini has been very impressive and he has tackled each race with the utmost professionalism so is a worthy favourite. I would want Restless Harry on my side if it turns out to be very soft but the Friday is normally run on the best ground of the week. The Betchworth Kid has good flat form and would be suited by a strongly run race on decent ground.

MF: The Albert Bartlett often throws up some strange results but Tell Massini is my nap of the meeting. If the form works out, then he will definitely shorten during the week. I can’t see any negatives with him. Quel Esprit is attractive at a big price and Najaf looks to be class but Cheltenham seems to be a bit of an afterthought.

KR: Tell Massini is the only one for me.

CR: There has been good each-way money for Enterprise Park. He has done very little wrong but this is a big step up. There has been money for Shinrock Paddy but he will need it to be soft. I think Tell Massini may be vulnerable on soft ground so Restless Harry is my choice. He jumps well and the step up in trip should suit so he will take all the beating.

Gold Cup

SM: Looks to be a two horse race but which one?

CR: It’s likely to be a very small field so there is very little each-way value. There was money for Denman early on in the season but that has now dried up. Cooldine and Imperial Commander have both been backed each-way but I can’t see Kauto Star losing. The King George was his best race to date and Denman was very very poor in the Aon; I can even see him finishing out of the frame. Willie Mullins has got Cooldine ready to peak but he will have had to improve a great deal to feature.

MF: Denman has had heart problems but he was unbelievable in the Hennessey and I think he would have won the Aon had he not fell. Paul Nicholls is no mug and he knew that Denman would improve for that run. I cannot believe that people are questioning the booking of AP for the ride. He has been the best national hunt jockey for over a decade so of course he is the right man for the job. There is no doubt that this is going to be the race of the year but Denman will have to be extraordinary to beat Kauto Star.
AT: Kauto Star is the one for me. He wasn’t right when Denman beat him but I can’t see Nicholls making the same mistake again. With Denman, you would have said that he was going to be an easy winner of the Aon four out but he slipped, which was neither his nor AP’s fault, and lost the race. Tricky Trickster is the top one for the place money. He is peaking at the right time and should definitely make the frame. Imperial Commander saves his best for Cheltenham but he may not stay.

KR: Paul Nicholls holds all the aces. As a trainer, I know how hard it is to keep horses sound and Paul seems to be the best at it. It’s a marvellous feat. I can see a Nicholls 1-2-3 with Kauto Star, Tricky Trickster and Denman in that order. Cooldine is not as good on decent ground so he wouldn’t be for me.

Triumph Hurdle

SM: The Irish challenge looks very strong this year but who’s their number one?

AT Carlito Brigante seems to be a decent price considering he has already beaten Alaivan. He had a spin at Musselburgh on decent ground so we know he will handle almost any surface. Westlin’ Winds looks to be a big price considering his form with Mille Chief. He was a decent flat horse so should get on well with the better Friday ground.

MF: Edward O’Grady has said that Alaivan has been doing amazing things on the gallops but he is a really tiny horse and was very keen when winning a mickey mouse race latest. He is a nice horse but not for me. Advisor has done nothing wrong and I really like Carlito Brigante. His jockey Davy Russell loves him.

KR: I think that class tells in the Triumph and for the last few seasons only top top horses have been successful. Advisor fits into that bracket in my opinion.

CR: From an each-way perspective, there is value as most firms are offering four places and there only likely to be 12 or so runners on the day. Alaivan has been well backed as has Soldatino. Alaivan pulls too hard for my liking. Carlito Brigante is the each-way bet of the Festival.

PANEL’S BEST BETS

CR: Carlito Brigante e/w

AT: Somersby

MF: Nicky Henderson to win the RSA Chase and Tell Massini

KR: Long Run

PANEL’S WORST BETS

CR: Denman

AT: Quevega

MF: Alaivan

KR: Rite Of Passage