Cheltenham Ante Post Service – 9th Mar 10
I am out and about all week at Cheltenham Festival Preview Evenings so, as in previous years, the copy for this service for the next four days is no way near as in-depth as the Monday copy principally due to lack of time so will mainly highlight advised bets (for which today there are two…..on the same horse!), news and bit and bobs I have picked up on my travels that I believe to be of interest.
TODAY’S ANTE-POST ADVICE:
Quantitativeeasing (ew) NON RUNNER NO BET (Coral Cup) – Best prices: 12/1 Ladbrokes, Stan James, Bet365, Skybet, Betfred, Sportingbet, Coral (NR No Bet so go with them – can not stress NR No Bet enough with this horse)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) NON RUNNER NO BET (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys; Handicap Hurdle) – Best prices: 12/1 Stan James, Boylesports 10/1 Bet365, Ladbrokes, Skybet, totesport, Betfred, BlueSq, Paddy Power (all offer NR No Bet so go with them – cannot stress NR No Bet enough with this horse)
THE BET
Given I suggest we back Quantitativeeasing each-way for both the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle (must be with a firm offering Non Runner No Bet for both – I can’t stress this enough), I will explain my thinking here rather than repeating myself twice below. In short, I think the handicapper could have let him in exceptionally lightly off 139. I have said in this service before I am not a fan of the horse but that was in relation to winning the Grade 1 Neptune Novices’ Hurdle as I don’t think he is up to that but I feel he is more than up to winning off a mark of 139. He still may well end up in the Neptune which is why I stress Non Runner No Bet and then it is a case of no harm done and I am happy to take a couple of points shorter as a consequence. If they think they have a horse capable of going close in a Neptune, and it seems obvious they do, then the likelihood is that he is closer to a 150-rated horse than 140 so has to have a great chance if he heads for one of the two handicaps instead. As far as the Coral Cup is concerned, I know he is not a trends horse as the yard have a poor record in the race and he was beaten last time out but, if he runs there, I would be suprised if Quantitativeeasing does not start favourite or mighty close to it at around 13/2. There were excuses for the defeat last time out (inadequate trip and slow pace) but it could also have been a very good novices’ hurdle and a fast-run 2m5f is expected to really see him at his best. I can’t really see a downside to a Non Runner No Bet interest if I am right that he will be the plunge horse of the Coral Cup if they head down this route as we can lay off if we want to and, to offset the two negatives stats, J P McManus has a good record in the race and he has only had three runs this season and I do like a lightly-raced runner for this race. However, should he run in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle on Friday, I see him starting even shorter, maybe somewhere near the 5/1 mark as that contest would lack the class of the Coral Cup and Quantitativeeasing does have class and the stable saddled the runaway winner in the inaugural running of this race last season so again I see him as a horse we can lay off if we want to if this is his chosen port of call. In short, I think he could be very well handicapped so take the 12/1 each-way about Quantitativeeasing for the Coral Cup Non Runner No Bet and also take the 12/1 each way about Quantitativeeasing for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle if you can but, if not, then 10/1 each-way (NR No Bet). If you can’t get on with a firm not offering NR No Bet, then I suggest you leave it alone as he has three options at the Festival and they are unlikely to commit until late.
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
No news as such but I think it’s interesting that Ladbrokes, who have been going Non Runner No Bet for a good few days now, still go joint biggest on Dunguib so clearly want to take him on. Usually firms offering NR No Bet are not biggest about much at all. I also notice Loosen My Load, a horse I very much like, is out to 85/1 on Betfair for this race and is 33/1 on the machine for the Neptune so it is looking like the longer race for him. I have to say I can not believe that not one fixed-odds firm is betting without Dunguib yet.
WILLIAM HILL TROPHY
Galant Nuit may have done us a favour back in November and I note he is as low as 12/1 here but don’t touch that as Ferdy Murphy has said in the last couple of days he heads for the Kim Muir. I am on a panel at Carlisle tonight with said trainer and am hoping for a Ferdy Fest of info as he can certainly talk and I like a couple of his in the handicaps but I also know I will have to be careful as he can over-hype his horses. I have to say with the ground quickening up, 25/1 each-way about last year’s close-up third Nenuphar Collonges is not unappealing off a similar mark.
CHAMPION HURDLE
I am sure it has not escpaed you that Solwhit’s participation is in doubt following a bad scope yesterday which has seen Go Native harden further as favourite with the other leading hopefuls also trimmed as the five-time Grade 1 winner has gone for a walk in the market. Even if he does make it to post, if you had already backed him you would have to be worried as championship races are very rarely won by horses that have less than a perfect preparation and that, in tandem with the ground quickening up, means he is now looking very vulnerable though they watered yesterday. However, if they are watering now that means they are not expecting a deluge over the next week and genuine soft ground is what many believe Solwhit will need over two miles at this level which he looks very unlikely to get. As such, our two double-figure interests on Medermit and Punjabi are a best priced 7/1 and 8/1 respectively. I know we are on each-way at 12s but I still believe Punjabi is a decent each-way bet here and now at 8/1 as I believe he can’t not run his race taking the view he looked right back to his best in terms of wellbeing last time out and that would be my advised bet if pressed today looking at the race totally fresh. In other news Jumbo Rio’s owner confirmed him a runner for this race rather than race off top weight in the Coral Cup but after a disappointing run in last season’s Triumph Hurdle I am not sure undulating tracks are for him.
RSA CHASE
You don’t know how tempted I am to back Punchestowns now he is 4/1 as I am sure he will usurp Long Run as favourite on the day but there is just that maggot of doubt about him going lame again. If I am right he will start favourite if lining up, then he will start shorter than 7/2 in my opinion which is available NR No Bet in places so I certainly wouldn’t put anyone off that bet. I am not unhappy with our each-way bet on Weapon’s Amnesty, especially with the ground quickening up, but Punchestowns could easily be a class above and I will personally be backing him as a saver even though he may not go up as a bet on here as I don’t like putting up 7/2 shots to win races as you can work those out for yourself.
QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
I am going to attempt to make some money out of Kalahari King in some way on the day whether that be without Master Minded or in an Exacta or Reverse Exacta as I just feel he is a fresh horse that is going to run a screamer and the ground is turning in his favour. I don’t want him running too much of a screamer however having backed Master Minded to win by over five lengths.
CORAL CUP
Harry Findlay has warned us that the current favourite Beshabar will not run if the ground comes up Good or faster but surely there is little of chance of that so it’s not really much of a story. I think he needs it genuinely soft to be at his best though so isn’t really on my mind and especially having won two big handicaps in successive weeks so I would also be worried he has enough in hand to make that three on the spin in a much hotter race. The second favourite is Spirit River but he failed the acid test in the Totesport Trophy so is short enough for me but I can see the third favourite Lake Legend going well list though a 10lbs rise for that win might just be a little too much. I got the feeling when I was at the King yard they just about preferred him to Sir Harry Ormesher who also won last time out but is not straightforward. Gordon Elliott will still run Chicago Grey despite whingeing at his mark and reading what Phillip Hobbs said at an Irish preview last night it may well be his Wishful Thinking could head to the Neptune rather than this race but he changed his mind with County Zen in a similar situation last season so I would not bank on it.
RYANAIR CHASE
I note Petit Robin has been supported today off the back of Pricewise’s recommendation. I am going to have to have a few quid on aren’t I just for the sake of my sanity should he win. There are few things worse than backing a horse for one race and it turns up for another instead and wins that. Inglis Drever for the Champion Hurdle at 20/1 only to see him switched to the World Hurdle springs to mind!
ANTE-POST SUGGESTED BETS:
Flat Out (ew) @ 33/1 (Supreme Novices’ Hurdle) (win stake refunded if Dunguib wins)
Zaarito (ew) @ 25/1 (Arkle Trophy) NON RUNNER
Sports Line (ew) @ 14/1 (Arkle Trophy)
The Package (ew) @ 10/1 (William Hill Trophy)
Punjabi (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Hurdle)
Medermit @ 11/1 (Champion Hurdle)
No One Tells Me (ew) @ 20/1 (Mares Hurdle)
Weapon’s Amnesty (ew) @ 14/1 (RSA Chase)
Pettifour (ew) @ 50/1 (RSA Chase) NON RUNNER
*Petit Robin (ew) @ 25/1 w/o Master Minded (Champion Chase) NON RUNNER
*Master Minded to win by over five lengths @ 5/2 (Champion Chase)
Sanctuaire (ew) @ 12/1 (Fred Winter Juvenile Novices’ Hurdle)
Day Of A Lifetime (ew) @ 12/1 (Champion Bumper)
Voy Por Ustedes (ew) @ 10/1 (Ryanair Chase)
Time For Rupert (ew) @ 25/1 (World Hurdle)
Shillingstone (ew) @ 16/1 (Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup)
Mille Chief (ew) @ 10/1 (Triumph Hurdle 1-2-3-4) NON RUNNER
Secant Star (ew) @ 25/1 (Triumph Hurdle)
Enterprise Park @ 10/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
Tell Massini @ 5/1 (Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle)
ANTE-POST SUGGESTED NON-RUNNER NO BETS:
Saddlers Storm (ew) @ 14/1 (NH Chase)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Coral Cup)
Silk Affair (ew) @ 16/1 (Pertemps Final)
Song Of Songs (ew) @ 14/1 (Byrne Group Plate)
Trust Fund (ew) @ 10/1 (Foxhunters’)
Quantitativeeasing (ew) @ 12/1 (Martin Pipe Conditional Jockey’s Handicap Hurdle) – Stan James, Boylesports
* Indicates market limited to not all bookmakers
Tags: cheltenham festival













Tue, Mar 9, 2010
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