Paul Jones Midweek Ante Post Service – 10th Mar 10

Wed, Mar 10, 2010

The Imperial Cup is the big betting race of the weekend and, I’ve got to be honest, I’ve been so snowed under with Cheltenham and travelling to attend preview nights I have not had sufficient time to give this race the time I wanted so I won’t be advising a bet but here are my early thoughts.

Obviously this has been a Pipe benefit down the years so we will start with his runners and the one for money over the last 24 hours has been Hunterview. Strange, as that was the horse David Pipe was least inclined to talk about feeling he may not get in. Who would have thought it? Perhaps that was the catalyst punters needed reading between the lines or perhaps those close to the stable have been backing him. I’m not a great fan of the horse to be honest as he doesn’t look straightforward but obviously he could be a blot now he has his handicap debut after two defeats and then getting off the mark narrowly at Warwick last time out when he veered off a true line. Win he may but he won’t be carrying my money at top odds of 5/1.

Salut Flo was more interesting to me of the Pipe entries before the money came for Hunterview as he really could be anything judged on his impressive British debut when he hacked up in a handicap chase by 12 lengths of a mark of 118 last week and is as low as sixth favourite for next week’s Jewson if he gets in. However, he has a hurdles mark of 132 so is no way near as attractively handicapped over hurdles but that still may not stop him. That said, I think the percentage call is to look away from Pond House this season.

As a 16/1 shot Caravel is the most interesting contender for me as I know connections harbour Cheltenham Festival ambitions with him. Since finishing midfield in the Swinton Hurdle in May, Howard Johnson’s charge has only run twice finishing second at Kelso in October and winning last time out at Musselburgh. With good ground forecast that will be ideal for him as he was verging on Listed class on the Flat so that will help show off his natural talent but I would be taking a chance he will enjoy Sandown as he has been restricted to Flat starts so far. That said, he is trained in the north and most northern tracks are flat so maybe I am reading too much into that. He catches my eye most at the prices.

Qaspal currently heads the betting for the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Hurdle at the Festival and J P McManus’ novice basically has to win here to get a penalty to get into that race or he will sit the Festival out so he will be trying for his life here. The winner of his last two starts including one over this course over 2m4f on heavy ground, that would concern me for a 5/1 shot as this is 2m likely to be run on good ground. It could well be McManus will be double handed by running Bellvano but he is a tricky sort cocking his jaw when second to Menorah and veering to his left when winning at Newbury when McCoy had to yank him back onto the racecourse. In terms of class, he could be one above this lot but I just don’t trust him. McManus also has Sway in this who is a dark one still in the Mares Hurdle next week. She fell in the National Spirit Hurdle on her only British start when going okay so is one to keep at the back of your mind for something before the season is out.

Of those trading at a single figure price I like Eradicate most. A proper good ground horse when trained on the Flat by Mark Johnston, it was hoped he could develop into a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle contender last season but it didn’t happen but I was taken with only run this season when he caught the eye winning at Musselburgh and it could be he just needed more time to get used to his new discipline. Henderson has a number of entries so I couldn’t say for sure if he is a definite starter hence why I would rather wait until the day as I can’t see him shortening too much in a very competitive race.

Like I mentioned earlier, I am Cheltenhamed up to the eyeballs at present so I haven’t gone through this race as much as I would have liked but, in summary, my early thoughts are that Eradicate and Caravel appeal most at this stage.